Irish General Election (February 8th 2020)

[DL]

Looks like there will be 19 independents elected - is there any ideological breakdown of where they stand? are some very rightwing and some very leftwing? What's the deal?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It isn't as if those labels mean a great deal in the context of Irish politics.

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like there will be 19 independents elected - is there any ideological breakdown of where they stand? are some very rightwing and some very leftwing? What's the deal?

All over. A large majority are on the right but not necessarily friendly with either FF or FG, and a sizeable minority on the left or even far-left. The below is a general overview but subject to others' thoughts/corrections. Most are probably persuadable to join a government but not clear if a government would want most of them.

Michael Healy-Rae: random populism, personal reelection (brother of Danny Healy-Rae)
Michael Lowry: ex-FG
Michael Fitzmaurice: rural interests
Michael Collins: anti-immigration
Mattie McGrath: ex-FF
Danny Healy-Rae: random populism, personal reelection (brother of Michael Healy-Rae)
Dennis Naughten: ex-FG
Noel Grealish: ex-PD (Progressive Democrats, a now-extinct Euroliberal party), anti-immigration
Sean Canney: has been part of recent FG governments
Michael McNamara: ex-Labour
Marian Harkin: Euroliberal
Peter Fitzpatrick: ex-FG, anti-abortion
Richard O'Donoghue: gene-pool FF (lost their nomination in local elections)
Verona Murphy: ex-FG, anti-immigration
Cathal Berry: military interests, seems to be somewhat on the left
Thomas Pringle: ex-SF, on the left
Catherine Connolly: aligned with the far-left
Carol Nolan: ex-SF, on the left but anti-abortion (did not join Aontu, however)
Matt Shanahan: left-wing

[bigic]

Final count completed in Cavan-Monaghan. FG 35 FF 38.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

It is my understanding that there is precedent in Ireland for motley crue coalitions with little ideological consistency to be formed in the interest taking down a common enemy, most prominently in 1948 when Fine Gael teamed up with Labour and various small lefty parties to take down the dominant de Valera. What are the odds of that being repeated here in the interest of taking down the FFG duopoly? Could the right-leaning indies be swayed and what would be their price?

[Intell]

It is my understanding that there is precedent in Ireland for motley crue coalitions with little ideological consistency to be formed in the interest taking down a common enemy, most prominently in 1948 when Fine Gael teamed up with Labour and various small lefty parties to take down the dominant de Valera. What are the odds of that being repeated here in the interest of taking down the FFG duopoly? Could the right-leaning indies be swayed and what would be their price?

It wouldn't provide for a stable government so unlikely.

[NOVA Green]

As an Irish-American am extremely delighted that Sinn Fein is not only a contender, but will likely be represented in the seats of power....

We will see our six occupied counties from the North United and Free...

All Irish Men and Women will raise the flag of the Green, Orange, and White.

BREXIT has caused a dream that all Irish Patriots have been longing for Centuries....

It was never about sectarian violence in the North (Let alone the South)....

British Army withdrew after the peace agreements, and we put down our arms....

We stood by the pledge and  won election after election in both North and South for decades....

SF is not only the largest Party in Occupied Northern Ireland, and  now apparently tied for 3rd within the South.

Will happily take an honorary Republican Socialist against some crooked rich wanker who claims rights after "clearing the slums of North Dublin", supported Interment during WW II against Irish Republicans....

Although the Church is a thang', and many people grew up in these places, the attempt to enforce religious identity is increasingly running hollow in the Republic proper...

Hell... Brendan Behan was excommunicated way back in the dayz simply for taking a couple of poppers at a couple of coppers in the South of Ireland way back in the early '40s in self defense (No 'arm no foul)....

Yeah they’re kinda loony but they have the best music

🎶 A comrade on my left and another one on me right,
And a clip of ammunition for me little armalite 🎶

Fine... was a bit lit and celebratory, but still we all sing the same old rebel songs where ever do roam.... even if sometimes it's old skool anthems from the over a hundred years ago...

Bill Clinton wasn't the only game in town from America back in the '90s.... (Last time I checked he took some hits from the Scots-Irish in the Southlands of America, although his numbers got jacked up in Catholic Irish Communities in the Northlands of America....

[EastAnglianLefty]

Looking at where SF could have elected extra candidates and treating the cut-off as having at least half a quota spare, here's who probably benefited in each case:

Donegal: Pringle (Ind)
Louth: Labour - at first I thought Nash would have got in anyway off Green transfers, but without SF transfers he would probably have been knocked out before the Greens. In that circumstance, Fitzpatrick might also have been beaten by the Green candidate.
Waterford: Greens
Dublin Bay North: Social Democrats
Dublin North West: FF (the SF vote transferred heavily to Sol-PBP, but there were very strong transfers from FG to FF. It's possible this might have shut out SF from a second seat, depending on how well they managed their vote.)
Dublin Central: Social Democrats
Dublin South Central: Collins (I4C). It's also possible that without SF transfers, the Sol-PBP candidate might have lost out to FF or FG.
Dublin South West: Possibly Murphy (Sol-PBP) would have lost out, but he did fairly well on transfers as far-left candidates go, so it's probably more likely that FF were the beneficiaries here.

There were also a fair amount of seats (the 5-seaters especially) where SF had just under 1.5 quotas. In some cases that might have been enough to see them home, depending on how they did with transfers from left candidates.

[YL]

All over. A large majority are on the right but not necessarily friendly with either FF or FG, and a sizeable minority on the left or even far-left. The below is a general overview but subject to others' thoughts/corrections. Most are probably persuadable to join a government but not clear if a government would want most of them.

Michael Healy-Rae: random populism, personal reelection (brother of Danny Healy-Rae)
Michael Lowry: ex-FG
Michael Fitzmaurice: rural interests
Michael Collins: anti-immigration
Mattie McGrath: ex-FF
Danny Healy-Rae: random populism, personal reelection (brother of Michael Healy-Rae)
Dennis Naughten: ex-FG
Noel Grealish: ex-PD (Progressive Democrats, a now-extinct Euroliberal party), anti-immigration
Sean Canney: has been part of recent FG governments
Michael McNamara: ex-Labour
Marian Harkin: Euroliberal
Peter Fitzpatrick: ex-FG, anti-abortion
Richard O'Donoghue: gene-pool FF (lost their nomination in local elections)
Verona Murphy: ex-FG, anti-immigration
Cathal Berry: military interests, seems to be somewhat on the left
Thomas Pringle: ex-SF, on the left
Catherine Connolly: aligned with the far-left
Carol Nolan: ex-SF, on the left but anti-abortion (did not join Aontu, however)
Matt Shanahan: left-wing

The Healy-Raes can probably be classified as genepool FF; their father Jackie was in FF before he became a TD.

Connolly is ex-Labour.

Shanahan is a health campaigner.  I had a quick look at his Twitter and got a "left populist" sort of vibe.

I think Harkin has no associations with any Irish party (including the extinct PDs) but was in ALDE when she was an MEP.  I wouldn't conclude from the ALDE connection that she's close to FF.

Overall, you'd think that FF/SF could find the six they need for a majority, but it wouldn't be a very stable majority.  FF/FG (who would need eight) might find it a little harder if they want to steer clear of the more obviously controversial ones.  Everybody but FF/FG would need 13, and that seems implausible.  (But yes, 1948.)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

tbh I do kind of feel bad for Michael Martin (as much as you can for such figures). While almost all of his fellow FF old guard swanned away after 2011 flushed with gigantic pensions and private sector golden handshakes, he stayed back out of a sort of demented loyalty to the FF machine and its tattered brand. Then in 2016 he did the dutiful thing, and propped up the FG government out to be "responsible". Now he is going to be either forced to eat his own words and sign a pact with SF or go into opposition and have to fall on his sword.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The numbers aren't there for a left majority and I can't see a SF + left minority government being tolerated (FG have literally no reason to do so; FF won't gain responsibility points for tolerating it, so how would staying out help?) A FG-SF coalition is absolutely off the cards.

So that means FF are going to be in government and it would be a surprise if Martin doesn't end up as the Taoiseach.

[brucejoel99]

It'll be fascinating to see where things go from here.

You'd think that having the most seats would mean that the negotiations are FF's game to run now but they've been pretty clear in interviews that they see SF as having won & that it's SF's mess to sort out. All indications from FF are that they're gonna  sit back & give McDonald the first shot at forming a government.

The cynic in me thinks that FF knows there isn't a workable coalition to be found & are trying to preemptively avoid any blame for the negotiations failing, but maybe they're just trying to buy time to get their house in order before dealing with SF?

FG seem keen in interviews to emphasize that they came in 3rd & to downplay any mandate that they might have to govern, so it looks like they're eager to go into opposition & wash their hands of the situation. Hence, not expecting them to do deals with anybody.

So I guess the next step is an attempt at a broad coalition of SF + left-wing parties + independents, but does anybody really expect that to come to anything workable? As far as I can see it, SF & FF will eventually have to come together (with the Greens &/or other parties too) or there'll have to be another election.

[Tintrlvr]

It'll be fascinating to see where things go from here.

You'd think that having the most seats would mean that the negotiations are FF's game to run now but they've been pretty clear in interviews that they see SF as having won & that it's SF's mess to sort out. All indications from FF are that they're gonna  sit back & give McDonald the first shot at forming a government.

The cynic in me thinks that FF knows there isn't a workable coalition to be found & are trying to preemptively avoid any blame for the negotiations failing, but maybe they're just trying to buy time to get their house in order before dealing with SF?

FG seem keen in interviews to emphasize that they came in 3rd & to downplay any mandate that they might have to govern, so it looks like they're eager to go into opposition & wash their hands of the situation. Hence, not expecting them to do deals with anybody.

So I guess the next step is an attempt at a broad coalition of SF + left-wing parties + independents, but does anybody really expect that to come to anything workable? As far as I can see it, SF & FF will eventually have to come together (with the Greens &/or other parties too) or there'll have to be another election.

Everyone (except SF, who can't cobble together a coalition without one of the other two big parties) is disclaiming a desire to govern, so it seems fairly clear this is going to go to another election rather quickly because no one has an incentive to compromise.

[brucejoel99]

It'll be fascinating to see where things go from here.

You'd think that having the most seats would mean that the negotiations are FF's game to run now but they've been pretty clear in interviews that they see SF as having won & that it's SF's mess to sort out. All indications from FF are that they're gonna  sit back & give McDonald the first shot at forming a government.

The cynic in me thinks that FF knows there isn't a workable coalition to be found & are trying to preemptively avoid any blame for the negotiations failing, but maybe they're just trying to buy time to get their house in order before dealing with SF?

FG seem keen in interviews to emphasize that they came in 3rd & to downplay any mandate that they might have to govern, so it looks like they're eager to go into opposition & wash their hands of the situation. Hence, not expecting them to do deals with anybody.

So I guess the next step is an attempt at a broad coalition of SF + left-wing parties + independents, but does anybody really expect that to come to anything workable? As far as I can see it, SF & FF will eventually have to come together (with the Greens &/or other parties too) or there'll have to be another election.

Everyone (except SF, who can't cobble together a coalition without one of the other two big parties) is disclaiming a desire to govern, so it seems fairly clear this is going to go to another election rather quickly because no one has an incentive to compromise.

Not necessarily. I'm sure that FF are waiting to see SF fail at an SF+others coalition as that'd give FF a lot more negotiating power.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

It looks like eventually its gonna be a SF+FF + Labour (or Greens or SocDems) government

[CumbrianLefty]

It looks like eventually its gonna be a SF+FF + Labour (or Greens or SocDems) government

"It will go lower".

[BP🌹]

No working with SF, FF says.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The key takeaway here is that all 15 TDs who voted against the bill to legalize abortion won their reelection campaigns.

[Tintrlvr]

The key takeaway here is that all 15 TDs who voted against the bill to legalize abortion won their reelection campaigns.

It's no surprise that there is a passionate anti-abortion minority who can elect one TD per constituency in rural areas. Nor does it bode particularly well for those who would like to turn back the clock.

[Oryxslayer]

So it sounds like right now Ireland is about to get their own little taste of Israeli politics. FG is flipping off everyone and saying "you sort it out," SF discovered that the math forces two of the big three to work together as their small party discussions collapsed, and FF insiders have serious problems with SF. So you get a Mexican Standoff that will produce new elections, a la Israel or Spain. The only difference of course is that all parties can adjust the number of candidates they run to tilt the math potentially in their favor.

[YL]

So it sounds like right now Ireland is about to get their own little taste of Israeli politics. FG is flipping off everyone and saying "you sort it out," SF discovered that the math forces two of the big three to work together as their small party discussions collapsed, and FF insiders have serious problems with SF. So you get a Mexican Standoff that will produce new elections, a la Israel or Spain. The only difference of course is that all parties can adjust the number of candidates they run to tilt the math potentially in their favor.

... though it isn't entirely clear that SF running more candidates would make that much difference to whether coalitions are viable, as extra SF seats would have mostly come from the smaller parties and independents who are relatively happy to work with them, not from FF and FG.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Welcome Ireland in joining Israel, Spain and Belgium in being a country where it's impossible to form governments and where new elections have to be held time after time.

[EastAnglianLefty]

So it sounds like right now Ireland is about to get their own little taste of Israeli politics. FG is flipping off everyone and saying "you sort it out," SF discovered that the math forces two of the big three to work together as their small party discussions collapsed, and FF insiders have serious problems with SF. So you get a Mexican Standoff that will produce new elections, a la Israel or Spain. The only difference of course is that all parties can adjust the number of candidates they run to tilt the math potentially in their favor.

... though it isn't entirely clear that SF running more candidates would make that much difference to whether coalitions are viable, as extra SF seats would have mostly come from the smaller parties and independents who are relatively happy to work with them, not from FF and FG.

I would presume a second election would revolve heavily around the question of who would and wouldn't work with who. Which is a bit of a problem, given that you'd only get a second referendum if FF and FG can't work out a coalition.

Also, if SF did run extra candidates, that might somewhat mitigate the smaller parties' seat losses, as in the constituencies where they wouldn't be able to elect an extra candidate it's still likely they'd transfer heavily to non-FF and non-FG candidates. Which probably means fewer Trot TDs but more Greens.

[CumbrianLefty]

Irish Labour are going to have a leadership contest - if anybody still cares.

[Vosem]

Varadkar remains Taoiseach and the FG government remains in power until the Dail affirmatively chooses someone else, right? If we're going to a series of new elections that don't change the fundamental math of what's going on, he could drone on as a Bibi-esque zombie for a while.