Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Oryxslayer]

Biden was always going to do poorly in Iowa, but his collapse in NH is a bit alarming. I would not be surprised if some polls coming out of SC would show an erosion of his support to someone like Steyer, who has made inroad with the AA community.

The calendar is brutal for Biden. Imagine if South Carolina was in any position earlier in the caldenar than 4th.

Everyone keeps repeating this, but the sad truth is that the Biden campaign laid their bed in this regard. Everyone knows that minorities have powerful influence on the Dem primary, campaigns can easily wait for Nevada or South Carolina to start building momentum considering the makeup of Super Tuesday. Regardless of how high Biden polled, he could have kept up the appearance that Nevada and South Carolina were where he was focusing, and would always get the lions share of attention. But...he couldn't. His campaign put more resources than were necessary in the white states and clearly made  pays for delegates. If Biden got 12% in both states but had successfully managed expectations, these states could be the buildup to a crescendo in the diverse contests, rather than a decline towards a firewall that may be collapsing.

[Tender Branson]

Biden insults a young woman as a „dog-faced liar“:

https://orf.at/stories/3153900

You cannot win by insulting voters and you cannot beat Trump by using his talk ...

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden insults a young woman as a „dog-faced liar“:

https://orf.at/stories/3153900

You cannot win by insulting voters and you cannot beat Trump by using his talk ...

Yeah I was really bristled up when the video started because she seemed so shy and friendly and I was like, oh god is the stress getting to him?  He's not really going to go off on this nice girl is he?

But then it was just a strange, fun moment.

I'm sure it will be taken out of context and twisted into some kind of horrible insult within two weeks though.  That's basically been the story of this entire campaign.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Biden was always going to do poorly in Iowa, but his collapse in NH is a bit alarming. I would not be surprised if some polls coming out of SC would show an erosion of his support to someone like Steyer, who has made inroad with the AA community.

To be fair, Biden never really tried in NH infrastructure-wise. They believed Bernie would do quite well there from the get-go and dialed back their campaign presence there since well before IA. The Biden camp has essentially had this strategy from the get-go of "Southern blacks are our life-raft, so we can phone it in!" - which isn't a bad strategy per se, assuming you don't come in 4th or 5th in the first two contests and scare away all of your white moderate support, all the while letting a billionaire run months of uncontested ads in SC to boost his name recognition among black voters...

Right. I don't think anyone predicted Joe would collapse in New Hampshire to the extent that he has. I expected he'd finish a distant 2nd to Sanders there because I really don't see a scenario where Sanders lost NH.

As a Giuliani 2008 and Jeb! 2016 supporter, the way Biden's primary is playing out is far too familiar to me. His firewall in SC may hold, but if he finishes 4/5th in NH, he'll likely collapse in NV and limp to a SC victory.

I certainly am not going to be giving $500 to attend his fundraiser with my law firm next week. Poor investment. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Waiting on SC polls to see if polls show Steyer closing gap. Split between Steyer and Bernie when I go and vote on March 3rd. Most early polling doesnt happen until 2/22 anyways, Feb is a short mnth.

Biden is running around saying attacks on Hunter is an attack on his family, but Hunter is fair game.

[RI]

Apparently some people view Biden's anti-Pete ad as a homophobic dog whistle suggesting Buttigieg "stick to decorating."

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/CANCEL_SAM/status/1226921108852662272

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

"If I do not hear from Steiner within 15 minutes, somebody will be shot!" - Joe Biden to his campaign staff. New Hampshire, February 10, 2019.

[The Free North]

INSHALLMAO

https://twitter.com/jonward11/status/1226569873666564096

As someone who uses the phrase jokingly, this is the greatest thing i've ever seen.

[Sir Mohamed]

“Whatever happens on Tuesday, Vice President Biden will still be in this race,” Symone Sanders, the Biden adviser he dispatched to Columbia, South Carolina, said repeatedly Tuesday on national and local television. “This race very much runs through Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday.”

Privately, Biden’s campaign advisers sound gloomier notes.

“We have to do one thing: survive until South Carolina. We’re going to win South Carolina. If we don’t, we’re done,” said one.

The campaign once thought the candidate would win at least two of the first four early states: South Carolina and one other. But that talk is gone after the Iowa loss, the looming one in New Hampshire and the worry that on Feb. 22 he won’t carry Nevada, which Biden’s team mentions far less often than South Carolina and where operatives say Bernie Sanders is favored to win, despite polls showing Biden with a marginal lead.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/10/south-carolina-joe-biden-primary-strategy-113588

The problem for Biden is that 4th or even 5th finish NH will further sink his fundraising. He's already out of cash. Combined with a bad showing in NV, this may be a downward spiral for him. If he doesn't outperform expectations in NH, he's done.

[Hollywood]

“Whatever happens on Tuesday, Vice President Biden will still be in this race,” Symone Sanders, the Biden adviser he dispatched to Columbia, South Carolina, said repeatedly Tuesday on national and local television. “This race very much runs through Nevada, South Carolina and Super Tuesday.”

Privately, Biden’s campaign advisers sound gloomier notes.

“We have to do one thing: survive until South Carolina. We’re going to win South Carolina. If we don’t, we’re done,” said one.

The campaign once thought the candidate would win at least two of the first four early states: South Carolina and one other. But that talk is gone after the Iowa loss, the looming one in New Hampshire and the worry that on Feb. 22 he won’t carry Nevada, which Biden’s team mentions far less often than South Carolina and where operatives say Bernie Sanders is favored to win, despite polls showing Biden with a marginal lead.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/10/south-carolina-joe-biden-primary-strategy-113588

The problem for Biden is that 4th or even 5th finish NH will further sink his fundraising. He's already out of cash. Combined with a bad showing in NV, this may be a downward spiral for him. If he doesn't outperform expectations in NH, he's done.

Biden has been in a downward spiral for several months.  The man doesn’t have any policies to hook or inspire voters, and lacks any modicum of character, charisma or charm that many thought he might possess.  He just goes around babbling about his electability.  Occasionally, he yells or insults at a voter that challenges him with a mildly difficult or critical question.  He’s also never had a real good debate.   Everyone just decides he’s the winner cause he didn’t F$$$ up too bad, because that’s apparently the bar some moderate Democrats set for him.  You could just tell his performance on the campaign trail and debates was having an effect on the lack of enthusiasm we saw in polls leading up to Iowa.   His staff has noticed.  They’ve been panicking since the end of November, and Biden has done nothing to change his approach.  Every message I’m getting from the Biden campaign is that they cannot find support anywhere in these first three states, and they are having trouble sustaining support in South Carolina. 

[Annatar]

One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

[Hollywood]

One group of people that are probably really angry now are all the candidates that got no traction because Biden was there, people like Cory Booker, its kind of funny how Biden arguably blocked stronger candidates from gaining any ground only to basically collapse at the end himself.

I'm not going to blame Biden for Booker's downfall, because Booker was kind of a dork with one of those screechy voices like a teenager whose voice changes during puberty.  Nothing about him stood out to me, because it always took him too long to get his message across to people. 

[MillennialModerate]

I think he survives NH no matter what but it won’t be pretty if he isn’t third and within a shouting distance of 2nd. Nevada needs to be a strong 2nd, if not 1st. Then South Carolina a win.

[Brittain33]

NYT’s The Daily went to a Biden rally in N.H. and found very few N.H. voters. It was all people from other states getting a look at Biden... and discouraged by what they saw.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

LMAO! Yes, Biden can survive a fifth-place finish in NH, but he absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, survive with fifth place in California.

Yeah, if this is even close to accurate, Biden is done (and this time for real). Today has been the worst day for his campaign in terms of polling.

It says a lot, that even Indy starts to accept that Biden is not doing well.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1227264088818044930

Joe's in full panic mode now. Hard to see how he survives a loss to Steyer in SC, but Biden may stay in for Super Tuesday since it would be just a few days away.

[RI]

Why do people think NV would be a good state for Biden? Nothing about it is more favorable to Biden than IA or NH.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think Biden ever had a chance in Iowa. The demographics simply do not favor him nor does the format. If he does collapse in NH and NV, I think it is going to be very difficult even with a win in SC to go forward after Super Tuesday.

Mayor Pete taking the moderate lane in the first two primaries is somewhat of a surprise. I still don't believe he is ready for prime time.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Still, he'd likely be the nominee if primary would have started in SC.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1227264088818044930

Joe's in full panic mode now. Hard to see how he survives a loss to Steyer in SC, but Biden may stay in for Super Tuesday since it would be just a few days away.

The Biden Campaign is remisent of the Jeb Bush Campaign in 2016. SC was Jebs last Stand and he lost there as well.

[DrScholl]

When he was considering getting in, I said that he probably wasn't the best choice since he had little luck running for President before. Looks like I was right.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1227264088818044930

Joe's in full panic mode now. Hard to see how he survives a loss to Steyer in SC, but Biden may stay in for Super Tuesday since it would be just a few days away.

The Biden Campaign is remisent of the Jeb Bush Campaign in 2016. SC was Jebs last Stand and he lost there as well.

Jeb! never had the lead in SC that Biden has enjoyed. This sort of reminds me of Giuliani in 2008, who maintained a lead in FL until a few weeks before the primary.

I still think Biden's firewall in SC can hold, but I don't think he will have the margin necessary to springboard into Super Tuesday. Steyer is still blanketing the airwaves here and Biden does not have the cash to compete.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1227264088818044930

Joe's in full panic mode now. Hard to see how he survives a loss to Steyer in SC, but Biden may stay in for Super Tuesday since it would be just a few days away.

The Biden Campaign is remisent of the Jeb Bush Campaign in 2016. SC was Jebs last Stand and he lost there as well.

Jeb! never had the lead in SC that Biden has enjoyed. This sort of reminds me of Giuliani in 2008, who maintained a lead in FL until a few weeks before the primary.

I still think Biden's firewall in SC can hold, but I don't think he will have the margin necessary to springboard into Super Tuesday. Steyer is still blanketing the airwaves here and Biden does not have the cash to compete.

How is Biden's SC Firewall supposed to hold if he doesn't get a WIN in Nevada?

IOWA: Biden 4th

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Likely 4th or 5th (Imagine if he gets beaten by Buttigieg & Klobuchar). That's not good optics for a guy who is supposed the most electable Candidate.

NEVADA: I don't think he's going to win there either.

[MaxQue]

NYT’s The Daily went to a Biden rally in N.H. and found very few N.H. voters. It was all people from other states getting a look at Biden... and discouraged by what they saw.

And he manages to insult the few voters that are there.