Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

Direct Polls Poll 14/01/2019

Blue & White - 34
Likud - 32
Joint List - 13
Labor-Gesher-Meretz - 10
Yisrael Beiteinu - 8
United Torah Judaism - 8
Shas - 8
New Right-National Union - 7
--------------------------------
United Jewish Home - 2.4%
Green Party - 2.3%

Left of center bloc - 57
Right of center bloc - 55
Yisrael Beiteinu - 8

Source: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/274560

Oh wow that's high. In the real world it's probably lower but good to see Shaffir has some support. She won't run unless she actually passes the threshold, but I think it's safe to say that if we had a 2 Seat threshold like we used to, we could very well have our first Green Party entering the Knesset independently.

While I don't think Jewish Home will clear the threshold, I also don't think that Shaffir on her own will nearly top their vote total. If she were really bringing two mandatea by herself the left and/or Blue and White would in reality be scooping her up in an instant.

Oh, definitely. She wouldn't get more than 1%, and probably much less. But I do think there are at least 2, possibly 3-4, mandates of people who support Shaffir, but wouldn't vote for her because she has no chance to pass. The reason she was left alone is less because she's not an electoral asset (though that's part of it- most of her supporters will vote for these parties anyway), and more because of other reasons. For Labour, it's a matter of pettiness- she left them so they don't want her back, and she'd be a danger to the current MKs. For Meretz, it's MKs like Farij and Zandberg who decided to betray her because they wanted to be higher on the list.

Former Zehut incels are now running in 2 different micro parties. The New Liberal Party & Liberal and economic strength party. The latter more edgy with some weed activist currently in jail as number 2.

Both will take 10-20K votes from the right mostly.

While we’re at it can we add another Atlas color for Liberals who dislike libertarians?

I've heard about the latter, lead by Gilad Alper (Zehut #2 so pretty prominent in libertarian circles). What about the New Liberals? Haven't heard of them.

Also, I'm compelled to be edgy and say the D avatar is for you, but we need to keep some ORDER among the Israeli posters (hint hint Danny go R! hint)

The new Liberals are led by Libby Molad who was number 3 Zehut with the rest of the Zehut crew. Oh and the support of Prof. Omer Moav. They’re more “serious”

How is a JL voter who dislikes Marxism a D? Maybe I should go O? Existential crisis here

My politics are way weirder than yours, so I just stick with my indy avatar.

Why do you support Joint List instead of something more mainstream like Meretz or Labor?

Because those parties are fixated on Jewish cultural issues like lgbt rights, the rabbinate, etc. (reflecting the unbearably narrow and insular lives of their supporters) while the Joint List is interested in totally reorienting Israeli society away from its ethnocentric way of operating. In other words, Meretz and to a lesser extent Labor want to recast Israel as a Jewish state in their own image (progressive, liberal, democratic, etc.). They want to maintain Jewish cultural and political supremacy, but the liberal, atheistic kind rather than the messianic, xenophobic kind championed by the right. To be clear, leftist Jewish ethnocentrism is much, much better than right wing Jewish ethnocentrism. But the Joint List is courageous enough to go farther than either and wants to recast Israel as the multi-ethnic, pluralistic, shared reality that it is.

I think that's kind of too rosey for the Joint List. The "ethnocentrism" of Meretz and Labour are just zionism, and there's nothing really courageous about the Joint List opposing zionism because, well, they were never zionists. That's just their position, like secularism is Meretz's position. Also, many of the issues Meretz-Labour talk about don't just impact Jews- LGBTQs in the Arab community are much worse off than in the Jewish secular and traditional public, for example, and the Joint List includes some of the worst homophobes in politics (as well as communists and people who are very soft on terrorism). I can definitely understand why most Arabs want to vote for the Joint List, warts and all, and maybe some Jews who are angry at Labour-Meretz. But if someone is a zionist leftist, or someone has LGBTQ issues as their litmus test, they should vote Labour-Meretz or KL.

[Hnv1]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

[Hnv1]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

Tamano-Shato is a bigger figure with Ethiopians and I assume some like Shlomo Mola\Avi Yalau will be placed instead of him by tonight

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

Tamano-Shato is a bigger figure with Ethiopians and I assume some like Shlomo Mola\Avi Yalau will be placed instead of him by tonight

Avi Yalau would be an excellent choice.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

Tamano-Shato is a bigger figure with Ethiopians and I assume some like Shlomo Mola\Avi Yalau will be placed instead of him by tonight

Avi Yalau would be an excellent choice.

Looks like this is bust: they put Attorney Michal Cotler, daughter of the former Canadian Minister of Justice Irwin Cotler, in Ybarkan's place.

This is really a gross move from Ybarkan. He criticized Bibi a lot and says he doesn't care about anything but himself, so looks like by joining him, Ybarkan is telling us he doesn't care about the country either. I remember that time Miri Regev said Ybarkan doesn't represent the characteristics of the Ethiopians such as "gratitude" because he criticized Bibi. So looks like he also doesn't mind helping racists. This also makes me doubt the integrity and honesty of the opposition to Netanyahu from any of these people in KL. Probably the reminder I needed to become a safe Labour-Gesher-Meretz voter.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

I think the Ethiopian vote was more about disgust with the government than a random Ethiopian on the KL list.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

Tamano-Shato is a bigger figure with Ethiopians and I assume some like Shlomo Mola\Avi Yalau will be placed instead of him by tonight

Avi Yalau would be an excellent choice.

Looks like this is bust: they put Attorney Michal Cotler, daughter of the former Canadian Minister of Justice Irwin Cotler, in Ybarkan's place.

This is really a gross move from Ybarkan. He criticized Bibi a lot and says he doesn't care about anything but himself, so looks like by joining him, Ybarkan is telling us he doesn't care about the country either. I remember that time Miri Regev said Ybarkan doesn't represent the characteristics of the Ethiopians such as "gratitude" because he criticized Bibi. So looks like he also doesn't mind helping racists. This also makes me doubt the integrity and honesty of the opposition to Netanyahu from any of these people in KL. Probably the reminder I needed to become a safe Labour-Gesher-Meretz voter.

Bibi couldn't peel a single MK from KL after either 2019 election--and he surely offered them keys to the kingdom. While KL is obviously a diverse constellation of ideologies, they are loyal and thus far trustworthy. Ybarkan's move is laughably stupid because he is leaving the next governing party for the next party of opposition. So he's bad at politics as well as morally incoherent. Obviously he belongs with Bibi.

[jaymichaud]

What are the odds Tzipi will return to politics in the 20s? In a world where Bibi didn’t exist she could have been PM.

I wish a center-left party would get Einat Wilf on too. She’s a great intellectual.

[danny]

What are the odds Tzipi will return to politics in the 20s? In a world where Bibi didn’t exist she could have been PM.

FWIW Livni was recently asked about it and she said that she would never return to politics.

[danny]

B&W replaced Yabarkan with Andrei Kuznov, who was their spokesperson in the Russian media recently.

[America Needs R'hllor]

25 minutes left for the right wing parties to sort it out. Will Peretz betray Ben Gvir, will Bennet fold and let Ben Gvir in, or will the two parties run separate? We'll see soon.

[Hnv1]

Peretz betrayed Ben Gvir. Otzma running alone. The religious right led by Bennet, but I actually think it was a bad move for the bloc

Speaking of Otzma where’s David? He was out far-right representative here and vanished

[America Needs R'hllor]

It's official: Bennet-Peretz-Smotrich-Shaked running together. Beb Gvir running alone. Expect some negativity between Otzma and the rest of the right.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Peretz betrayed Ben Gvir. Otzma running alone. The religious right led by Bennet, but I actually think it was a bad move for the bloc

Speaking of Otzma where’s David? He was out far-right representative here and vanished

Afaik he's ok, just busy

[America Needs R'hllor]

MK Motti Yogev (who came first in the Jewish Home list primaries) drops out of the list after being relegated to 11th: "the JH lead by Peretz lost its way, he's not a worthy man"

[Vosem]

So Bennett breaking off to form his own party back in December 2018, after a year of wrangling, two general elections, and several internal elections in several parties, led to...absolutely no change whatsoever. Got it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Peretz betrayed Ben Gvir. Otzma running alone. The religious right led by Bennet, but I actually think it was a bad move for the bloc

Speaking of Otzma where’s David? He was out far-right representative here and vanished

Yeah, I mean, it obviously saves BY from the likely outcome of missing the threshold, which is I'm sure why Peretz did it. But it basically casts two Otzmah mandates off, weakens the right bloc, etc.

[Hnv1]

So Bennett breaking off to form his own party back in December 2018, after a year of wrangling, two general elections, and several internal elections in several parties, led to...absolutely no change whatsoever. Got it.

Big change. Now he controls the party and the old Mafdal have no say.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's official: Bennet-Peretz-Smotrich-Shaked running together. Beb Gvir running alone. Expect some negativity between Otzma and the rest of the right.

I doubt Bibi will try to drag Otzmah over the threshold like last time. They'll probably try to bury them early, which may massively blow up in their faces.

[Hnv1]

It's official: Bennet-Peretz-Smotrich-Shaked running together. Beb Gvir running alone. Expect some negativity between Otzma and the rest of the right.

I doubt Bibi will try to drag Otzmah over the threshold like last time. They'll probably try to bury them early, which may massively blow up in their faces.

Actually the Otzma major demographics: Chabbad and poor Sephardi are closest to likud than NU and such. Bibi has only to gain for going hard on them

[danny]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

[Hnv1]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

[Continential]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

[Hnv1]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

all the big parties have a list of 120, once every party fielded 120 candidates, less common nowadays