Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

[jaymichaud]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

[Hnv1]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

[America Needs R'hllor]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

[jaymichaud]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

[America Needs R'hllor]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

[jaymichaud]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

Isn't that the purpose Hadash was supposed to serve? Also, would many Arab-Israelis vote for a Zionist party?

[America Needs R'hllor]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

Isn't that the purpose Hadash was supposed to serve? Also, would many Arab-Israelis vote for a Zionist party?

Not many, but Meretz was saved from the threshold in round 1 by Arab votes who defected from the splintered Arab parties. So it could happen.

[Hnv1]

New Right say the right wing to far right parties are set on running separately.

Shaffir and Meretz are kissing and making up and a Labour-Meretz merger is still being worked on. So the left and right and really moving in different directions with regards to unity. Just, I suppose, as you'd expect in an election featuring a doomed right wing prime minister.

That'd guarantee like 10-12 seats for them, right?

Would any center-left Labor voters be put off by a Meretz alliance, potentially pushing them to B&W?

Also, pretty laughable how Likud haven't won a single opinion poll this election cycle, nor have the right wing bloc gotten over 58 seats. The fall from grace is something else.

More like 7-9 seats. Each party has 1-2 seats they got from panic voters, together B&W will drink them thoroughly

Yep, though initial polls would show them with 12-14 I assume.

Also, I've seen nothing with Shaffir and Meretz making up- only that she offered to give up the 2nd place to a representative of the Arab community and that Meretz want to push her down to the unrealistic 6th as payment for all she sacrificed and did to save them last time. At this point, after how they treated her, I'm probably going to vote for Labour-Gesher.

What's their aim for this? Trying to steal votes from JL?

Well, steal is kind of a harsh word for that, but basically creating a Jewish-Arab partnership that could get some Arab votes. I personally don't know if it's such a great idea politically, but whatever.

Isn't that the purpose Hadash was supposed to serve? Also, would many Arab-Israelis vote for a Zionist party?

Not everyone want the communist led “partnership”. Some Jewish voter will also feel more comfortable with a party with a larger Jewish representation as their first step leftwards

[America Needs R'hllor]

Amir Peretz suggested that KL, Labour-Gesher and Meretz run together on the same ticket. Absolutely ridiculous and disgraceful in that it'd gravely harm the chance to defeat Netanyahu, bury any remains of leftism in Israel and is especially cynical considering his arguments AGAINST uniting with Meretz.

[Walmart_shopper]

Amir Peretz suggested that KL, Labour-Gesher and Meretz run together on the same ticket. Absolutely ridiculous and disgraceful in that it'd gravely harm the chance to defeat Netanyahu, bury any remains of leftism in Israel and is especially cynical considering his arguments AGAINST uniting with Meretz.

Labor is just so awful. Obviously Blue and White and Meretz won't run together. Peretz is under a huge amount of pressure to merge with Meretz and this is a really silly gimmick to try to deflect some of that pressure away from himself.

 It's like trying to get my kids to go to sleep at night. No, habibti, you may not tell me about what happened at school eight weeks ago for the 23rd time tonight. I don't care. Go to bed.

[crals]

So Shaffir left Labour after losing the leadership election, took over a random minor Green party just like that and joined up with Meretz only to dump them again? What's the point? Why didn't she just wait for Peretz to inevitably flop and leave?

[jaymichaud]

Amir Peretz suggested that KL, Labour-Gesher and Meretz run together on the same ticket. Absolutely ridiculous and disgraceful in that it'd gravely harm the chance to defeat Netanyahu, bury any remains of leftism in Israel and is especially cynical considering his arguments AGAINST uniting with Meretz.

I can see a lot of centrist voters voting for YB in this scenario. Very risky and not worth it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So Shaffir left Labour after losing the leadership election, took over a random minor Green party just like that and joined up with Meretz only to dump them again? What's the point? Why didn't she just wait for Peretz to inevitably flop and leave?

She left Labour because its leader wouldn't agree to a left-wing merger, and she gave up a safe seat on the Labour list to broker an agreement between Meretz and Ehud Barak's Democratic Israel party (sources in Meretz even said that such a merger could not be possible without her joining too). She then took green causes up and started promoting them heavily, which gotta be admired, even if she didn't start that way in politics. Now, she didn't dump Meretz- according to most sources she was pusehd out by an ingrateful party that decided she didn't bring any votes (wrong- their vote share in urban areas rose significantly, compensating and more for lost Arab support). They're now offering her the 6th or 5th spot, which are unrealistic for the former and very risky for the latter.

Well, it might be a pretty rosey view of her moves. I'm sure she's done a lot wrong, and her Tel Aviv-centric politics irk me. But Meretz have been treating her really badly.

[danny]

So Shaffir left Labour after losing the leadership election, took over a random minor Green party just like that and joined up with Meretz only to dump them again? What's the point? Why didn't she just wait for Peretz to inevitably flop and leave?

I feel like she overestimated her influence and thought that her defection would either force a union on the left or cause Labour to fall apart with the new Democratic Union taking its place. Now that it didn't happen Meretz aren't enthusiastic about keeping her around, so she's stuck without a party.

[jaymichaud]

So Shaffir left Labour after losing the leadership election, took over a random minor Green party just like that and joined up with Meretz only to dump them again? What's the point? Why didn't she just wait for Peretz to inevitably flop and leave?

I feel like she overestimated her influence and thought that her defection would either force a union on the left or cause Labour to fall apart with the new Democratic Union taking its place. Now that it didn't happen Meretz aren't enthusiastic about keeping her around, so she's stuck without a party.

Aren't Labor polling better than Meretz/DU in every aspect?

[danny]

Aren't Labor polling better than Meretz/DU in every aspect?

Labour are polling better, although they haven't improved from last election. And while Shaffir didn't prove herself as valuable as Meretz might have hoped, they do run the risk of missing out entirely if they just dump her.

[Hnv1]

Meretz are just backstabbing Shaffir. She might not be an electoral asset but half a year ago they begged her to join to be a bridge between them and Barak. Now Zandberg and Freg with their massive ego are pushing her out.

Peretz is acting like a complete bellend about the merger and persists with his objections. his arguments aren't even coherent anymore after he spinned a proposal for a triple merger with B&W yesterday. With Bibi is probably the last remain of the ultra egoistic politicians of the 80's\90's

[America Needs R'hllor]

Some gems from Education Minister Rafi Peretz in an interview published this weekend:
Asked what if his children had a different sexual orientation: "Thank God, my children grew up in a normative and healthy manner, and build their homes in a Jewish manner... A normative family is a man and a woman and it should be kept that way."

About Kahanist Ben Gvir: "He came a long way, he's not really a Kahanist at this point but a legitimate partner." (reminder that Ben Gvir constantly praises Kahana and has a picture of mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein adorning his wall)

About annexing the West Bank, whether the Palestinians will get an Israeli citizenship and be able to vote for the Knesset: "The Palestinians will be able to live a good life and vote in their municipal elections."

On Ayelet Shaked: "I really respect her... Her husband is an army pilot in the reserves, I know how it is when the husband is a pilot and goes off to train, it takes a great effort to preserve the home and I respect it."

On whether conversion therapy works: "It's a complicated question and requires a lot of discussion."

Nothing new, of course- our Education Minister is a rabidly homophobic Kahanism-apologizer Appartheid supporter. But I think this interview sums it up rather well.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some gems from Education Minister Rafi Peretz in an interview published this weekend:
Asked what if his children had a different sexual orientation: "Thank God, my children grew up in a normative and healthy manner, and build their homes in a Jewish manner... A normative family is a man and a woman and it should be kept that way."

About Kahanist Ben Gvir: "He came a long way, he's not really a Kahanist at this point but a legitimate partner." (reminder that Ben Gvir constantly praises Kahana and has a picture of mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein adorning his wall)

About annexing the West Bank, whether the Palestinians will get an Israeli citizenship and be able to vote for the Knesset: "The Palestinians will be able to live a good life and vote in their municipal elections."

On Ayelet Shaked: "I really respect her... Her husband is an army pilot in the reserves, I know how it is when the husband is a pilot and goes off to train, it takes a great effort to preserve the home and I respect it."

On whether conversion therapy works: "It's a complicated question and requires a lot of discussion."

Nothing new, of course- our Education Minister is a rabidly homophobic Kahanism-apologizer Appartheid supporter. But I think this interview sums it up rather well.

Incredibly, the only thing that dati leumi voters would really resist here is maybe his openness to conversion therapy and his insensitivity on the question about gay kids. Everyone knows that Palestinians are sub-human and therefore don't deserve rights, but a gay Jew is, after all, a Jew.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So the next week is going to be very eventful, possibly the most eventful week since the election was announced the things to watch:

1. At the beginning of the week, we'll probably see a flurry of activity in the Knesset as Kahol-Lavan and Yisrael Beiteinu vie to start the Knesset Committee to discuss Netanyahu's immunity request. The Knesset's legal counsel (who was under heavy attack by the right-wing machine this week) already said that there's nothing legally preventing such a committee. There are two scenarios here: either longtime Knesset Speaker Yuli Edlestein (Likud) vetoes it and likely gets replaced by MK Meir Cohen from KL (with Lieberman abstaining if I had to guess), or Edlestein is disarmed by the legal counsel and says he can't prevent the committee.

2. The end of the week will see the closing of the party lists, always a very eventful time. Two key questions:

a. What will happen to the right of Likud? According to Shaked, and following Bennet-Peretz and Bennet-Smotrich meetings, a Yamina-type union is definitely in the cards, but Bennet is apparently refusing to run with Otzma and Peretz is refusing to break the agreement he signed with Otzma, so hard to see how they get past this. So this means either a New Right-Jewish Home-National Union-Otzma list or the same without Otzma (basically Yamina). The other option is two parties to the right of Likud- one would have the New Right and one would have Jewish Home-Otzma, that's for sure, but it's unclear where Smotrich and the National Union stands. After Peretz signed an agreement with Otzma without consulting with him there's a deep rift between them, so this makes it hard. Three options there- either he doesn't run at all (unlikely), he runs with the New Right (apparently polls showed this to be successful as he's very personally popular in the religious zionist public, much more-so than Peretz, but doubt Bennet and Shaked would go for it) or he runs with the Jewish Home-Otzma in a similar build as the URWP from April (but with Ben Gvir third). Apparently Shaked is pressuring Bennet to run with Otzma, but he fears it'll scare off liberal right-wing voters (and shows his political stupidity, because relying on the liberal right got him below the threshold already). Who would lead a united list? In his interview Peretz said that a religious list should be lead by a religious person, so I'd guess Bennet would lead, followed by Peretz, Smotrich, Shaked and finally Ben-Gvir.

b. What about the left? They have less factions that can shift but are just as messy as the right. Apparently Labour is considering a last-minute merger with Meretz, presumably Orly Levy and Gesher would follow but probably not happily. So it's either going to be a united left list or Labour-Gesher and the Democartic Camp, similar to September. Unclear what will happen with Shaffir- if the parties run separately I guess she'd find a place in the Democratic Camp, but Labour could demand that she be kept out of a united list (or she could be placed low). Either way she's become the punching bag of the left. Amir Peretz would definitely lead a united list. Apparently, even KL tried to push for this union, promising Peretz favourable government negotiation terms and even support in the race for the Presidency.

c. Some more minor questions: Meretz were apparently looking for an Arab figure to put second on their list, what's up with that? Will Kahol-Lavan make any changes to their list, possibly including more women in the top 10? Any other changes to parties like the New Right, Shas or Yisrael Beiteinu?

[Hnv1]

So Kachlon is retiring

[Walmart_shopper]

So the next week is going to be very eventful, possibly the most eventful week since the election was announced the things to watch:

1. At the beginning of the week, we'll probably see a flurry of activity in the Knesset as Kahol-Lavan and Yisrael Beiteinu vie to start the Knesset Committee to discuss Netanyahu's immunity request. The Knesset's legal counsel (who was under heavy attack by the right-wing machine this week) already said that there's nothing legally preventing such a committee. There are two scenarios here: either longtime Knesset Speaker Yuli Edlestein (Likud) vetoes it and likely gets replaced by MK Meir Cohen from KL (with Lieberman abstaining if I had to guess), or Edlestein is disarmed by the legal counsel and says he can't prevent the committee.

2. The end of the week will see the closing of the party lists, always a very eventful time. Two key questions:

a. What will happen to the right of Likud? According to Shaked, and following Bennet-Peretz and Bennet-Smotrich meetings, a Yamina-type union is definitely in the cards, but Bennet is apparently refusing to run with Otzma and Peretz is refusing to break the agreement he signed with Otzma, so hard to see how they get past this. So this means either a New Right-Jewish Home-National Union-Otzma list or the same without Otzma (basically Yamina). The other option is two parties to the right of Likud- one would have the New Right and one would have Jewish Home-Otzma, that's for sure, but it's unclear where Smotrich and the National Union stands. After Peretz signed an agreement with Otzma without consulting with him there's a deep rift between them, so this makes it hard. Three options there- either he doesn't run at all (unlikely), he runs with the New Right (apparently polls showed this to be successful as he's very personally popular in the religious zionist public, much more-so than Peretz, but doubt Bennet and Shaked would go for it) or he runs with the Jewish Home-Otzma in a similar build as the URWP from April (but with Ben Gvir third). Apparently Shaked is pressuring Bennet to run with Otzma, but he fears it'll scare off liberal right-wing voters (and shows his political stupidity, because relying on the liberal right got him below the threshold already). Who would lead a united list? In his interview Peretz said that a religious list should be lead by a religious person, so I'd guess Bennet would lead, followed by Peretz, Smotrich, Shaked and finally Ben-Gvir.

b. What about the left? They have less factions that can shift but are just as messy as the right. Apparently Labour is considering a last-minute merger with Meretz, presumably Orly Levy and Gesher would follow but probably not happily. So it's either going to be a united left list or Labour-Gesher and the Democartic Camp, similar to September. Unclear what will happen with Shaffir- if the parties run separately I guess she'd find a place in the Democratic Camp, but Labour could demand that she be kept out of a united list (or she could be placed low). Either way she's become the punching bag of the left. Amir Peretz would definitely lead a united list. Apparently, even KL tried to push for this union, promising Peretz favourable government negotiation terms and even support in the race for the Presidency.

c. Some more minor questions: Meretz were apparently looking for an Arab figure to put second on their list, what's up with that? Will Kahol-Lavan make any changes to their list, possibly including more women in the top 10? Any other changes to parties like the New Right, Shas or Yisrael Beiteinu?

It sounds like the immunity request will be considered (and almost certainly denied) because Edelstein is too smart and too ambitious to commit suppuku for a doomed Netanyahu by holding the Knesset hostage. That will pretty much ensure that immunity is dead no matter what happens in March.

The political fallout is incredibly complicated, though. Do leftists who are not enamored with hawkish Blue and White stay home knowing that Netanyahu is going to jail no matter what? Does the Bibi-ist right stay home knowing there's nothing left for Bibi--or do they come out in force to protest the legal establishment?

My guess is that not much will actually change in the overall analysis. The left will still be on the cusp of a majority but mercurial Liberman and the threshold battles of smaller parties makes the range of possible outcomes anything from a Liberman-right wing alliance to a left wing majority or minority government. While I definitely suspect the latter, it's a pretty murky picture and the political turmoil in this country is rather depressing.

[Hnv1]

The immunity process is not going to end before the election and then it will have to start over