2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Minnesota Mike]

I would not be surprised at all if we get VA-12 after the 2030 census. Probably alongside NV-05, UT-05, ID-03, AZ-10 and TN-10.

I would not hold your breath on TN-10. TN was not close to getting another seat this Census and is growing only slightly faster than the nation as a whole.  I don't think NV-05 is a sure thing either.

[Skill and Chance]

My guess is national Democrats would probably prefer a reshuffle where Connally/Wexton figure out the Fairfax and PWC seats and Span Berger can carpetbag over to the new VA 10th. I doubt Loudoun particularly cares about carpetbaggers at least for a general and Spanberger already represents the rural parts of the district. Wexton underperformed Biden by 6 points while Spanberger ran even with Biden. You definitely don't want a Wexton like performance in what is now a Biden +9 instead of 19 seat at least for 2022 even if the seat overall would be a rental for the GOP.

That's a good point.  If you're going to carpetbag, you want to carpetbag to a large county that grew 25% in that past decade.

Spanberger would be more of a sure thing to hold that seat, absent a major carpetbagging penalty.

[Torie]

Thanks to cinyc, we now have the approximate 2021 numbers for the CD's.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1468801865164984323

Via Sean Trende's twitter account, there is a link to the Special Masters report which makes for fascinating reading. These guys set a new standard of excellence that one hopes will improve the quality of others charged with redistricting on a non partisan basis.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Skill and Chance]

Thanks to cinyc, we now have the approximate 2021 numbers for the CD's.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1468801865164984323

Via Sean Trende's twitter account, there is a link to the Special Masters report which makes for fascinating reading. These guys set a new standard of excellence that one hopes will improve the quality of others charged with redistricting on a non partisan basis.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Interesting.  Dems should be happy that this VA-10 was not an absolute Youngkin blowout like current VA-07.

Also, new VA-04 is now out of the GA-02/NC-01 late-in-the-decade danger zone. 

[Tekken_Guy]

Thanks to cinyc, we now have the approximate 2021 numbers for the CD's.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1468801865164984323

Via Sean Trende's twitter account, there is a link to the Special Masters report which makes for fascinating reading. These guys set a new standard of excellence that one hopes will improve the quality of others charged with redistricting on a non partisan basis.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Interesting.  Dems should be happy that this VA-10 was not an absolute Youngkin blowout like current VA-07.

Also, new VA-04 is now out of the GA-02/NC-01 late-in-the-decade danger zone. 

It was never in that danger zone as long as it had Richmond in it.

[Skill and Chance]

Thanks to cinyc, we now have the approximate 2021 numbers for the CD's.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1468801865164984323

Via Sean Trende's twitter account, there is a link to the Special Masters report which makes for fascinating reading. These guys set a new standard of excellence that one hopes will improve the quality of others charged with redistricting on a non partisan basis.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Interesting.  Dems should be happy that this VA-10 was not an absolute Youngkin blowout like current VA-07.

Also, new VA-04 is now out of the GA-02/NC-01 late-in-the-decade danger zone. 

It was never in that danger zone as long as it had Richmond in it.

It was "only" McAuliffe +12 before.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Thanks to cinyc, we now have the approximate 2021 numbers for the CD's.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1468801865164984323

Via Sean Trende's twitter account, there is a link to the Special Masters report which makes for fascinating reading. These guys set a new standard of excellence that one hopes will improve the quality of others charged with redistricting on a non partisan basis.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Interesting.  Dems should be happy that this VA-10 was not an absolute Youngkin blowout like current VA-07.

Also, new VA-04 is now out of the GA-02/NC-01 late-in-the-decade danger zone. 

It was never in that danger zone as long as it had Richmond in it.

It was "only" McAuliffe +12 before.

That's still bluer than either NC-01 or GA-02 are now. The current NC-01 is only Biden +9 and GA-02 Biden +13, versus VA-04 at Biden +25. If Youngkin overperformed by 13 in VA-04, that would be enough to flip both NC-01 and GA-02, whereas for VA-04 it still leaves it strongly D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My guess is national Democrats would probably prefer a reshuffle where Connally/Wexton figure out the Fairfax and PWC seats and Span Berger can carpetbag over to the new VA 10th. I doubt Loudoun particularly cares about carpetbaggers at least for a general and Spanberger already represents the rural parts of the district. Wexton underperformed Biden by 6 points while Spanberger ran even with Biden. You definitely don't want a Wexton like performance in what is now a Biden +9 instead of 19 seat at least for 2022 even if the seat overall would be a rental for the GOP.

That's a good point.  If you're going to carpetbag, you want to carpetbag to a large county that grew 25% in that past decade.

Spanberger would be more of a sure thing to hold that seat, absent a major carpetbagging penalty.

Yeah, running in VA-10 is quite clearly the best option for Spanberger.

[Skill and Chance]

My guess is national Democrats would probably prefer a reshuffle where Connally/Wexton figure out the Fairfax and PWC seats and Span Berger can carpetbag over to the new VA 10th. I doubt Loudoun particularly cares about carpetbaggers at least for a general and Spanberger already represents the rural parts of the district. Wexton underperformed Biden by 6 points while Spanberger ran even with Biden. You definitely don't want a Wexton like performance in what is now a Biden +9 instead of 19 seat at least for 2022 even if the seat overall would be a rental for the GOP.

That's a good point.  If you're going to carpetbag, you want to carpetbag to a large county that grew 25% in that past decade.

Spanberger would be more of a sure thing to hold that seat, absent a major carpetbagging penalty.

Yeah, running in VA-10 is quite clearly the best option for Spanberger.

I would also suggest Connolly should go to new VA-07 since today's VA-11 includes a portion of Prince William and that Wexton should go to new VA-11 since today's VA-10 includes a portion of western Fairfax.   

[Thunder98]

I was able to draw a 6D-4R-1C map. I had no idea what district that I want to put the Charlottesville's area in. Proportionality is quite good too.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cac0e615-39eb-4358-830a-543def9564da

VA-1: Trump +8.8
VA-2: Trump +0 (Trump won by 94 votes!)
VA-3: Biden +37.7
VA-4: Biden +35.4
VA-5: Trump +6.4
VA-6: Trump +30.1
VA-7: Biden +13.2
VA-8: Biden +54.8
VA-9: Trump +33.2
VA-10: Biden +13.2
VA-11: Biden +40.3

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

[Antonio the Sixth]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Hes going to sue the VA supreme court for the maps they drew.

Brilliant grifting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Hes going to sue the VA supreme court for the maps they drew.

Brilliant grifting

Will be hilarious if he racks in a bunch of cash. Gotta respect the dedication.

[Antonio the Sixth]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

two-term Governor T-Mac agrees

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Hes going to sue the VA supreme court for the maps they drew.

Brilliant grifting

Will be hilarious if he racks in a bunch of cash. Gotta respect the dedication.

He gets closer to being the left's Ellis/Eastman every day. 

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529
Hes going to sue the VA supreme court for the maps they drew.

Brilliant grifting

He needs to pay for his increasing demand for Maids and similar staff, like every working class American. You guys should know this.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Clown. These people won't stop until every state adopts authoritarian Maryland-style maps.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

two-term Governor T-Mac agrees

Actually, the trendlines in Loudoun are pretty clear. Even in a perfect storm for them, Rs lost Loudoun by 12. Need I point out the margin Rs won Loudoun in 2009?
"muh T-Mac" is something of a lazy response, tbh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Hes going to sue the VA supreme court for the maps they drew.

Brilliant grifting

Will be hilarious if he racks in a bunch of cash. Gotta respect the dedication.

He gets closer to being the left's Ellis/Eastman every day. 

How so?

[Antonio the Sixth]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

two-term Governor T-Mac agrees

Actually, the trendlines in Loudoun are pretty clear. Even in a perfect storm for them, Rs lost Loudoun by 12. Need I point out the margin Rs won Loudoun in 2009?
"muh T-Mac" is something of a lazy response, tbh.

The point is that we have no idea if Loudoun will trend further left or if it's maxed out. Recent elections if anything suggest it's probably maxed out. In general, I find it pretty idiotic how many posters here will just make maps that only work under wild assumptions of previous decades' swings to continue indefinitely. We have no f**king clue what trends will be like in the next decade. It's not like people in 2010 knew what the trends in that decade would look like either, or else they would have drawn very different maps.

[DaleCooper]

Honestly I don't even care anymore. The House of Representatives (along with every single state legislative body) is a complete joke of an institution at this point and it's obvious that none of our judges have any interest in fair electoral maps, so I don't understand why anyone cares anymore.

[jamestroll]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

two-term Governor T-Mac agrees

Actually, the trendlines in Loudoun are pretty clear. Even in a perfect storm for them, Rs lost Loudoun by 12. Need I point out the margin Rs won Loudoun in 2009?
"muh T-Mac" is something of a lazy response, tbh.

The point is that we have no idea if Loudoun will trend further left or if it's maxed out. Recent elections if anything suggest it's probably maxed out. In general, I find it pretty idiotic how many posters here will just make maps that only work under wild assumptions of previous decades' swings to continue indefinitely. We have no f**king clue what trends will be like in the next decade. It's not like people in 2010 knew what the trends in that decade would look like either, or else they would have drawn very different maps.

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

[ProgressiveModerate]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

two-term Governor T-Mac agrees

Actually, the trendlines in Loudoun are pretty clear. Even in a perfect storm for them, Rs lost Loudoun by 12. Need I point out the margin Rs won Loudoun in 2009?
"muh T-Mac" is something of a lazy response, tbh.

The point is that we have no idea if Loudoun will trend further left or if it's maxed out. Recent elections if anything suggest it's probably maxed out. In general, I find it pretty idiotic how many posters here will just make maps that only work under wild assumptions of previous decades' swings to continue indefinitely. We have no f**king clue what trends will be like in the next decade. It's not like people in 2010 knew what the trends in that decade would look like either, or else they would have drawn very different maps.

Yeah I agree with all this.

However I do think it’s safe to assume Loudon County will continue its insane growth rate which in turn will probably net more votes for the Dem unless there’s a pretty solid GOP shift.