Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I agree with many listed in the thread thus far. But one that I don't think gets brought up enough is that the trade war will cost Trump massively in Iowa and Minnesota among swing voters. The Democratic nominee will embrace a trade agenda most likely being very close to Trump. The idea that most will defect to Democrats after they were Obama/Trump simply based on trade is nonsense. Many of these people voted for Trump because of his protectionism and tough trade stance. I'll call this 'muh trade war' fallacy whenever people use this argument.

I have to say though some of these 'tropes' being listed are just made up strawmen that nobody actually believes.

Iowa has a history of pragmatic voting and trending radically against the nation when they find their livelihoods threatened. They broke hugely for Trump precisely because they thought his tough line on fighting trade inequalities would help their bottom line, and so far, the opposite has been true. Whether Iowans are willing to stick it out, hoping something will change, or abandon the entire experiment, is a legitimate question to ask.

I can see the argument that after only four years they will be reluctant to backtrack on a decision they made so resoundingly, but I wouldn't just dismiss it as "muh trade war." Trump approval in Iowa is just as abysmal as it is nationwide, and that demands some sort of explanation.

[Heebie Jeebie]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

Anything to do with """"""""""""Safe-R"""""""""""" Ohio

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Both of these:

White voters will continue flocking to the GOP in droves, making WI, OH, IA, and MN into permanent red states.

White working class voters will turn on Trump bigly, creating a massive blue wave across the Midwest.

[MT Treasurer]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

[Xing]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Obviously it's because Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8%, even lower than their ceiling of 49.93% in Florida.

[SN2903]

- Impeachment will significantly hurt Trump's chances at re-election seems to be the consensus on Atlas right now when in reality there is no chance he gets removed. This over time will unite his base and will also cause some independents to move toward Trump.

- Arizona is a toss-up. Trump will probably end up winning it by 5-6.

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

- Texas and Georgia will be competitive. I think Georgia has a better chance of being competitive.

- New Hampshire is a tossup. I think it's likely to go D.

- Trump doesn't have a real chance in Minnesota. I think Minnesota could be the surprise state of 2020.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I think a lot of people’s issues with FL is how there were two very winnable big races for Dems. And the FL Dems lost both in a wave year.

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Might even be more competitive than Texas. I’d say Tilt R at the most for GA. I’d like to see some good polling in a few months.

[Politician]

I think a lot of people’s issues with FL is how there were two very winnable big races for Dems. And the FL Dems lost both in a wave year.

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Might even be more competitive than Texas. I’d say Tilt R at the most for GA. I’d like to see some good polling in a few months.

It's definitely more competitive than Texas, lol. This isn't up for debate.

[SN2903]

I think a lot of people’s issues with FL is how there were two very winnable big races for Dems. And the FL Dems lost both in a wave year.

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Might even be more competitive than Texas. I’d say Tilt R at the most for GA. I’d like to see some good polling in a few months.

It's definitely more competitive than Texas, lol. This isn't up for debate.

I think Texas is Lean R bordering on Likely R and Georgia is Tilt R bordering on Lean R.

[MT Treasurer]

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Obviously it's because Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8%, even lower than their ceiling of 49.93% in Florida.

48.8% and 49.93%

in a D+8/D+9 year.

[IceSpear]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

95% isn't safe to you?

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Some of the biggest swing to the left between 2016 and 2018 were in the rural Midwest, and that's with more and more people voting a straight ticket. They might not win the rural areas, but they could do much better, which will make a huge difference in Midwest states.

IceSpear has got it in his head that it Ohio is locked down Titanium R and there is no convincing him otherwise, clearly. I find his post especially amusing because Ohio and Virginia have consistently recorded pretty much the same (underwater) approval ratings for Trump every month for nearly three years, sometimes Ohio being even more underwater for him than Virginia. Yet Virginia is Titanium D and Ohio is Titanium R in his mind, apparently.

I'm not saying either state is likely to flip, and there are legitimate differences between the two and other relevant factors that go beyond just Trump's approval rating, but there is a difference between acknowledging a state probably leans one way and being absolutely, smugly CERTAIN that a state is going to vote a certain way over a year before the election. Especially when that state voted the opposite way in 2 of the last 3 elections, and it re-elected a Democratic senator in the most decisive victory any candidate had statewide there in the 2018 midterms.

I guess we'll see which take ages well in the end. But let me just say right now that I think the take "There is literally no chance Ohio votes D, it is now Titanium R" has far less of a chance of aging well than the take "Ohio most likely won't vote D, but it's still a possibility and it could certainly swing left even if it doesn't."

The 2018 exit polls had Trump at 43-57 in Virginia and 53-46 in Ohio. I think that's a bit more reliable than whatever shoddy trash Morning Consult or whoever else is putting out.

[Politician]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

95% isn't safe to you?

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Some of the biggest swing to the left between 2016 and 2018 were in the rural Midwest, and that's with more and more people voting a straight ticket. They might not win the rural areas, but they could do much better, which will make a huge difference in Midwest states.

IceSpear has got it in his head that it Ohio is locked down Titanium R and there is no convincing him otherwise, clearly. I find his post especially amusing because Ohio and Virginia have consistently recorded pretty much the same (underwater) approval ratings for Trump every month for nearly three years, sometimes Ohio being even more underwater for him than Virginia. Yet Virginia is Titanium D and Ohio is Titanium R in his mind, apparently.

I'm not saying either state is likely to flip, and there are legitimate differences between the two and other relevant factors that go beyond just Trump's approval rating, but there is a difference between acknowledging a state probably leans one way and being absolutely, smugly CERTAIN that a state is going to vote a certain way over a year before the election. Especially when that state voted the opposite way in 2 of the last 3 elections, and it re-elected a Democratic senator in the most decisive victory any candidate had statewide there in the 2018 midterms.

I guess we'll see which take ages well in the end. But let me just say right now that I think the take "There is literally no chance Ohio votes D, it is now Titanium R" has far less of a chance of aging well than the take "Ohio most likely won't vote D, but it's still a possibility and it could certainly swing left even if it doesn't."

The 2018 exit polls had Trump at 43-57 in Virginia and 53-46 in Ohio. I think that's a bit more reliable than whatever shoddy trash Morning Consult or whoever else is putting out.

The exit polls from Fox had Trump as -2 in Ohio.

[IceSpear]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

95% isn't safe to you?

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Some of the biggest swing to the left between 2016 and 2018 were in the rural Midwest, and that's with more and more people voting a straight ticket. They might not win the rural areas, but they could do much better, which will make a huge difference in Midwest states.

IceSpear has got it in his head that it Ohio is locked down Titanium R and there is no convincing him otherwise, clearly. I find his post especially amusing because Ohio and Virginia have consistently recorded pretty much the same (underwater) approval ratings for Trump every month for nearly three years, sometimes Ohio being even more underwater for him than Virginia. Yet Virginia is Titanium D and Ohio is Titanium R in his mind, apparently.

I'm not saying either state is likely to flip, and there are legitimate differences between the two and other relevant factors that go beyond just Trump's approval rating, but there is a difference between acknowledging a state probably leans one way and being absolutely, smugly CERTAIN that a state is going to vote a certain way over a year before the election. Especially when that state voted the opposite way in 2 of the last 3 elections, and it re-elected a Democratic senator in the most decisive victory any candidate had statewide there in the 2018 midterms.

I guess we'll see which take ages well in the end. But let me just say right now that I think the take "There is literally no chance Ohio votes D, it is now Titanium R" has far less of a chance of aging well than the take "Ohio most likely won't vote D, but it's still a possibility and it could certainly swing left even if it doesn't."

The 2018 exit polls had Trump at 43-57 in Virginia and 53-46 in Ohio. I think that's a bit more reliable than whatever shoddy trash Morning Consult or whoever else is putting out.

The exit polls from Fox had Trump as -2 in Ohio.

And -16 in Virginia. The point stands.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

[Frenchrepublican]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

Most of these people have been automatically registered and thus few of them are (will be) reliable voters.

[Orser67]

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Obviously it's because Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8%, even lower than their ceiling of 49.93% in Florida.

48.8% and 49.93%

in a D+8/D+9 year.

You say this mockingly, but the fact that Democrats lost an open seat gubernatorial race in a great national environment in the election election cycle immediately preceding 2020 is a very strong piece of evidence that GA isn't quite a top-tier swing state yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do tend to avoid too many of these boring threads this far out, but I see WAY more people complaining about people calling Virginia a competitive state than I do people, ya know, actually calling it a competitive state.  You guys are crusading against the wind.

I can name about 10 people off the top of my head on this website that think Elizabeth awareness would lose Virginia

Then do it.

[MT Treasurer]

You say this mockingly, but the fact that Democrats lost an open seat gubernatorial race in a great national environment in the election election cycle immediately preceding 2020 is a very strong piece of evidence that GA isn't quite a top-tier swing state yet.

The national environment/popular vote should always be taken into consideration, yes, but is this the kind of state which swings wildly depending on changes in the national environment/overall popular vote?

Republican percentages in high-profile races since 2012:

2012 (very good year for Democrats): 53.3%
2014 (extremely good year for Republicans): 52.7%/52.8%
2016 (very good year for Republicans): 50.4%
2018 (Democratic wave): 50.2%

Notice the downward trend. There’s also the fact that an outspokenly liberal black woman only lost the state by a point while receiving 48.8% of the vote, which would have been unthinkable in the Democratic wave of 2006. Any way you look at it, this state is a ticking time bomb for Republicans, and it’ll go off sooner rather than later.

[LiberalDem19]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

95% isn't safe to you?

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Some of the biggest swing to the left between 2016 and 2018 were in the rural Midwest, and that's with more and more people voting a straight ticket. They might not win the rural areas, but they could do much better, which will make a huge difference in Midwest states.

IceSpear has got it in his head that it Ohio is locked down Titanium R and there is no convincing him otherwise, clearly. I find his post especially amusing because Ohio and Virginia have consistently recorded pretty much the same (underwater) approval ratings for Trump every month for nearly three years, sometimes Ohio being even more underwater for him than Virginia. Yet Virginia is Titanium D and Ohio is Titanium R in his mind, apparently.

I'm not saying either state is likely to flip, and there are legitimate differences between the two and other relevant factors that go beyond just Trump's approval rating, but there is a difference between acknowledging a state probably leans one way and being absolutely, smugly CERTAIN that a state is going to vote a certain way over a year before the election. Especially when that state voted the opposite way in 2 of the last 3 elections, and it re-elected a Democratic senator in the most decisive victory any candidate had statewide there in the 2018 midterms.

I guess we'll see which take ages well in the end. But let me just say right now that I think the take "There is literally no chance Ohio votes D, it is now Titanium R" has far less of a chance of aging well than the take "Ohio most likely won't vote D, but it's still a possibility and it could certainly swing left even if it doesn't."

The 2018 exit polls had Trump at 43-57 in Virginia and 53-46 in Ohio. I think that's a bit more reliable than whatever shoddy trash Morning Consult or whoever else is putting out.

The exit polls from Fox had Trump as -2 in Ohio.

And -16 in Virginia. The point stands.

On that point; his approval in Nevada was -8 and it seems like users on here assume Nevada's safe, but that same exit poll had Trump at -18 in Minnesota, -12 in Wisconsin, -14 in Michigan, and -6 in Pennsylvania, and those 4 are all considered swing state by Atlas. So if we go by the FOX exit polls, the Upper Midwest should be safer than Nevada, and Pennsylvania should be rated the same as Nevada.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

- Pennsylvania being a tossup (it's right on the border of Lean/Likely D)

- Michigan's Senate race being competitive (the margin may not be as big as Peters' first win, but he's safe)

[TML]

The idea that Trump would somehow win VA against a supposedly far-left opponent who self-identifies as socialist.

[MoneyIsAChineseHoax]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

[lfromnj]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

I too lived in inner city Indianopolis and Bloomington

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

1) R+9 Kansas
2) McMullin voters for the Democrat 2020
3) Inevitable Democratic nominee Joe Biden