Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't mean joke tropes like #BlueKansas. Relatively consensus opinions that could look absolutely ridiculous the day after the election in 2020.

I plan on bumping this on 4 Nov 2020.

I'll start: Texas will be competitive. (I hope this one is correct, but it's probably gonna look silly.)

[Lambsbread]

the idea that Georgia and Texas will be competitive are the ones that stick out

[eric82oslo]

That Yang has no chance. And that Biden will easily cruise to the general because of the deep south.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I'll start: Texas will be competitive. (I hope this one is correct, but it's probably gonna look silly.)

What does "competitive" mean?  I think the Republican MOV in Texas will be right around 5%.  Does that count as competitive?

Anyway, I think Georgia will be the closest state, but current consensus seems to be that Trump will win it easily.

[OneJ]

That if Warren becomes the nominee, she's likely to lose because of her being "too far left."

I'll start: Texas will be competitive. (I hope this one is correct, but it's probably gonna look silly.)

the idea that Georgia and Texas will be competitive are the ones that stick out

I don't understand what's hard about seeing Georgia and Texas, especially Georgia, being competitive. There's plenty of evidence that these two states can and probably will be competitive next year unless you all have a different definition of what's competitive.

[Skye]

Most hyperbolic statements about how some states that have close results are "Safe" for either party.

Remember when PA was fool's gold for the GOP? Pepperidge farm remembers.

[The Mikado]

Georgia (especially) and Texas can be "competitive" while Trump still wins them. Don't immediately say everyone who said Georgia will be a swing state was WRONG if Trump wins GA by 2 points.

[slothdem]

The consensus here (and most places) is that the election is a toss-up or only mildly tilts Democratic. In fact, Trump is behind significantly in MI/PA/WI and would likely lose Arizona and Florida if the election as held today as well. And he is unlikely to become more popular than he is today.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably most if not all of them, but off the top of my head:

- FL is Lean/Likely R, eSpEcIaLlY wItH wArReN oR sAnDeRs
- GA is Likely R (what Mikado said)
- TX is Likely/Safe R (what Mikado said)
- IA will vote 5-10 points to the left of OH
- AZ is Lean R
- MI will be several points more Democratic than PA/MI is Lean D even as PA is a Tossup or Tilt R
- MI-PRES 2020 = IN-PRES 2012
- NV is a Tossup/more likely to vote for Trump than MI/ME/MN
- Trump couldn’t possibly lose VA by double digits because Republicans still have a high floor there or whatever

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lean R Wisconsin

[libertpaulian]

OH is no longer a swing state.

[DaWN]

- Suburbs will swing R/have a muted D swing because muh Warren/Sanders bad fit (such an
  excruciatingly bad take it makes my head hurt)
- Rurals will swing D/have a muted R swing because muh Warren/Sanders good fit (as above)
- OH and IA voting to the left of Texas (imagine still believing this is a possibility)
- AZ/GA are Likely R/Fool's Gold (Evidence is just something that passes by people who believe this, isn't it?)
- FL is Safe R/FL is a Pure Tossup Tipping Point State (Both takes are silly)
- CA will swing R (not a hugely popular one mind that but I have seen it on here before - seriously?)

And a bonus one for the pundits but not Atlas, as everyone here has seemed to accept Hickenlooper is inevitable
- Gardner isn't DOA

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'll start: Texas will be competitive. (I hope this one is correct, but it's probably gonna look silly.)

What does "competitive" mean?  I think the Republican MOV in Texas will be right around 5%.  Does that count as competitive?

Anyway, I think Georgia will be the closest state, but current consensus seems to be that Trump will win it easily.

A MOV of 5% would be competitive if, retrospectively, there was any chance of Democrats winning it. If every poll was indicating a MOV between 5% and 8%, and it ends up being 5%, that's not competitive.

If the GOP needs to sweat out Texas because the Democrats have a real chance and are holding rallies in Dallas and Austin, and it ends up being 5% because Trump did better than expected nationwide, I would consider that competitive.

[Xing]

Lean R Wisconsin

This, more specifically that Wisconsin will vote 5+ points to the right of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and will even vote right of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Also, of course, that Nevada is a true swing state, and that Oregon is trending Republican or only "Likely D."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Lean R Wisconsin

This, more specifically that Wisconsin will vote 5+ points to the right of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and will even vote right of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Also, of course, that Nevada is a true swing state, and that Oregon is trending Republican or only "Likely D."

There is no current opinion about Wisconsin that will age well, because Wisconsin has a history of defying any analysis or even logic.

Hillary led outside the MoE in literally every poll in Wisconsin from March up through October.

[Frenchrepublican]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

[Xeuma]

OH is no longer a swing state.

Ohio is Likely R, bordering on safe. We've gone the way of Missouri.

[OSR stands with Israel]

None will be as bad a Titanium R Colorado that was very prevalent in 2015

[Xing]

3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’

Are these really that prevalent, though? I think the conventional Atlas wisdom is that Trump is very likely to lose the PV, but not by double digits. And I haven't seen anyone claim Warren will win in a landslide, simply that she'd have a good chance of beating Trump. If anything, it seems "Warren is unelectable/would lose in a landslide" is a more common belief here than that she'd win in a landslide.

[Politician]

2016 trends being guaranteed to repeat in 2020

[Gracile]

Pennsylvania being guaranteed to flip Democratic by a comfortable margin, especially if Biden is the nominee.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’

Are these really that prevalent, though? I think the conventional Atlas wisdom is that Trump is very likely to lose the PV, but not by double digits. And I haven't seen anyone claim Warren will win in a landslide, simply that she'd have a good chance of beating Trump. If anything, it seems "Warren is unelectable/would lose in a landslide" is a more common belief here than that she'd win in a landslide.

It's more likely that the hand-wringing over Trump's huge advantage, incumbency, muh economy, and muh 42% floor will look like a bunch of bed-wetting when a scandal-ridden, disgraced Trump gets walloped in the general election, helped by an independent conservative ticket siphoning GOP votes from "concerned conservatives."

If there's anything that could make all the 2020 election threads of the past two years look ridiculous, that would be it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The idea that ANY Democratic candidate will do significantly better or worse than any other.

The moment there's a presumptive nominee, their poll numbers will go way up, and after the Milwaukee convention, they will climb further still, as the party and anyone who's sick and tired of the last four years jumps on the bandwagon.

I think if there's one mistake everyone here, me included, is making, it's looking at 2020 through a 2016 lens. Access Hollywood conditioned us to believe that nothing Trump could do would ever erode his support. Applying 2016 logic to Ukrainegate is a fundamental error. This is not 2016. I'm not saying Ukrainegate is definitely going to sink Trump, but it will be wrong to think it'll just slide right off because muh divided electorate.

At this point four years ago, only hardcore GOPers and Dem bedwetters thought Hillary's email server was a serious threat to her campaign.

[Orser67]

Trump has a >50% chance of re-election is the big one for me.

Also:

-Likely R FL
-Lean R WI
-AZ will vote significantly to the left of WI
-MI as a key swing state
-NV and especially NH as totally uncompetitive
-Candidate quality is easily predictable 1+ year from election
-Ukrainegate will hurt Biden in the Dem primary
-Everyone who isn't Warren and Biden should just drop out now
-The Democratic convention will be contested (not a trope now afaik but it will probably pop back up)
-In general, too much certainty as to what the map will look like

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump has a >50% chance of re-election is the big one for me.

Also:

-Likely R FL
-Lean R WI
-AZ will vote significantly to the left of WI
-MI as a key swing state
-NV and especially NH as totally uncompetitive
-Candidate quality is easily predictable 1+ year from election
-Ukrainegate will hurt Biden in the Dem primary
-Everyone who isn't Warren and Biden should just drop out now
-The Democratic convention will be contested (not a trope now afaik but it will probably pop back up)
-In general, too much certainty as to what the map will look like

The actual 2016 map would have gotten big laughs in September 2015.

"WTF is this? Scott Walker vs. Martin O'Malley?"