Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[MR DARK BRANDON]

That Yang has no chance. And that Biden will easily cruise to the general because of the deep south.

[LiberalDem19]

That Collin Peterson's district is Safe Republican. Anyone here go to FarmFest this past month? The farmers are all stressed out and want this trade war to end. And then here comes Michelle Fischbach, who can't name the basic price of soy and supports Trump's trade war. How is that Safe Republican when the Democrat is the chair of the Ag committee?

[538Electoral]

AZ going Democrat. Even if it's close I think there's a very low chance of AZ going Democrat. I think WI, MI, PA, FL and NC all flip before AZ.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

That Collin Peterson's district is Safe Republican. Anyone here go to FarmFest this past month? The farmers are all stressed out and want this trade war to end. And then here comes Michelle Fischbach, who can't name the basic price of soy and supports Trump's trade war. How is that Safe Republican when the Democrat is the chair of the Ag committee?

#OddlySpecific

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

That Elizabeth Warren is unelectable. These same people seem to not have paid attention at all in 2016.

I would have gone with "Texas is Safe R" which most the blue avatars (and a few other liberals stuck in 2004) here seem to think despite all the polling evidence available, but you guys already know how I feel about that so I'll digress.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

[Frenchrepublican]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

Well, number 2. is your main talking point.

[Frenchrepublican]

3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’

Are these really that prevalent, though? I think the conventional Atlas wisdom is that Trump is very likely to lose the PV, but not by double digits. And I haven't seen anyone claim Warren will win in a landslide, simply that she'd have a good chance of beating Trump. If anything, it seems "Warren is unelectable/would lose in a landslide" is a more common belief here than that she'd win in a landslide.

To be honest, most people on atlas are making reasonable predictions (just look at the aggregate predictions map) and try to be fair in their analysis, but some people who are pretty vocals are making the kind of predictions highlighted above (and they’re pretty agressive with anyone who disagree with them)

[Frenchrepublican]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

Well, number 2. is your main talking point.

Post deleted by moderator

Aren’t you predicting that Trump will either lose TX or will win it by >1 point ?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

Well, number 2. is your main talking point.

Post deleted by moderator

Aren’t you predicting that Trump will either lose TX or will win it by >1 point ?

I think it will be pretty competitive. And every poll in the state supports this. I urge Republicans to keep burying their heads in the sand though.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This thread is everything I hoped it would be.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That the 2020 trend map will basically look like the 2016 one, both at the state and the county levels.  I expect suburbs that swung hard left in 2016 to pretty much stand pat in 2020- except those ones that are experiencing super-rapid demographic changes.

[McGarnagle]

The idea that Iowa or Ohio are going to be solidly Republican in 2020

[IceSpear]

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

[RINO Tom]

I do tend to avoid too many of these boring threads this far out, but I see WAY more people complaining about people calling Virginia a competitive state than I do people, ya know, actually calling it a competitive state.  You guys are crusading against the wind.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I do tend to avoid too many of these boring threads this far out, but I see WAY more people complaining about people calling Virginia a competitive state than I do people, ya know, actually calling it a competitive state.  You guys are crusading against the wind.

I can name about 10 people off the top of my head on this website that think Elizabeth awareness would lose Virginia

[LiberalDem19]

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Some of the biggest swing to the left between 2016 and 2018 were in the rural Midwest, and that's with more and more people voting a straight ticket. They might not win the rural areas, but they could do much better, which will make a huge difference in Midwest states.

[morgankingsley]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

[ElectionsGuy]

I agree with many listed in the thread thus far. But one that I don't think gets brought up enough is that the trade war will cost Trump massively in Iowa and Minnesota among swing voters. The Democratic nominee will embrace a trade agenda most likely being very close to Trump. The idea that most will defect to Democrats after they were Obama/Trump simply based on trade is nonsense. Many of these people voted for Trump because of his protectionism and tough trade stance. I'll call this 'muh trade war' fallacy whenever people use this argument.

I have to say though some of these 'tropes' being listed are just made up strawmen that nobody actually believes.

[morgankingsley]

I agree with many listed in the thread thus far. But one that I don't think gets brought up enough is that the trade war will cost Trump massively in Iowa and Minnesota among swing voters. The Democratic nominee will embrace a trade agenda most likely being very close to Trump. The idea that most will defect to Democrats after they were Obama/Trump simply based on trade is nonsense. Many of these people voted for Trump because of his protectionism and tough trade stance. I'll call this 'muh trade war' fallacy whenever people use this argument.

I have to say though some of these 'tropes' being listed are just made up strawmen that nobody actually believes.

I never thought I would see the day you say that Trump is going to do bad in a group of voters

[Alben Barkley]

That Yang has no chance.

LOL, you're really still going, huh?

[morgankingsley]

I agree with many listed in the thread thus far. But one that I don't think gets brought up enough is that the trade war will cost Trump massively in Iowa and Minnesota among swing voters. The Democratic nominee will embrace a trade agenda most likely being very close to Trump. The idea that most will defect to Democrats after they were Obama/Trump simply based on trade is nonsense. Many of these people voted for Trump because of his protectionism and tough trade stance. I'll call this 'muh trade war' fallacy whenever people use this argument.

I have to say though some of these 'tropes' being listed are just made up strawmen that nobody actually believes.

I never thought I would see the day you say that Trump is going to do bad in a group of voters

Sorry, wrong user. I thought you were RedEagleOfficial

[Alben Barkley]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

95% isn't safe to you?

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Some of the biggest swing to the left between 2016 and 2018 were in the rural Midwest, and that's with more and more people voting a straight ticket. They might not win the rural areas, but they could do much better, which will make a huge difference in Midwest states.

IceSpear has got it in his head that it Ohio is locked down Titanium R and there is no convincing him otherwise, clearly. I find his post especially amusing because Ohio and Virginia have consistently recorded pretty much the same (underwater) approval ratings for Trump every month for nearly three years, sometimes Ohio being even more underwater for him than Virginia. Yet Virginia is Titanium D and Ohio is Titanium R in his mind, apparently.

I'm not saying either state is likely to flip, and there are legitimate differences between the two and other relevant factors that go beyond just Trump's approval rating, but there is a difference between acknowledging a state probably leans one way and being absolutely, smugly CERTAIN that a state is going to vote a certain way over a year before the election. Especially when that state voted the opposite way in 2 of the last 3 elections, and it re-elected a Democratic senator in the most decisive victory any candidate had statewide there in the 2018 midterms.

I guess we'll see which take ages well in the end. But let me just say right now that I think the take "There is literally no chance Ohio votes D, it is now Titanium R" has far less of a chance of aging well than the take "Ohio most likely won't vote D, but it's still a possibility and it could certainly swing left even if it doesn't."

[morgankingsley]

Trump CAN'T win Minnesota. He will probably lose Minnesota. But he is far from certainly, no doubt in the world, losing it. I give him a five percent chance of winning it, which is far from a good chance by any means, but it's not #SafeDemocrat

95% isn't safe to you?

Safe for me is absolute 100 percent guarantee

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

AZ going Democrat. Even if it's close I think there's a very low chance of AZ going Democrat. I think WI, MI, PA, FL and NC all flip before AZ.

I'd agree with everything except NC.