Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

If WI moves to the left, then what's your tipping point state? PA?

Most likely tipping point states other than Wisconsin:
1. Pennsylvania
2. Arizona
3. Florida

My gut says that in a very close election, WI trends left, but if it's a comfortable win for the Democrats, WI will be the tipping point yet again.

But my WI predictions have been wrong more than any other state. In 2004 it was the only state I got wrong. And I lived in Wisconsin for 18 years. Anyone who says they know what's going to happen there is lying.

[Orser67]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

If WI moves to the left, then what's your tipping point state? PA?

Most likely tipping point states other than Wisconsin:
1. Pennsylvania
2. Arizona
3. Florida

My gut says that in a very close election, WI trends left, but if it's a comfortable win for the Democrats, WI will be the tipping point yet again.

But my WI predictions have been wrong more than any other state. In 2004 it was the only state I got wrong. And I lived in Wisconsin for 18 years. Anyone who says they know what's going to happen there is lying.

I would be very happy if you turned out to be right. I think WI not being close to the tipping point state would put Republicans in a terrible position, since they'd likely have to hold AZ+FL+GA and win either PA or MI, where I think Democrats have a significant advantage.

[redeagleofficial]

Suburbs are trending hard D

[Flyersfan232]

That Yang has no chance. And that Biden will easily cruise to the general because of the deep south.

Yang will collapse in the primary

[Flyersfan232]

Pennsylvania being guaranteed to flip Democratic by a comfortable margin, especially if Biden is the nominee.

U think a progressive could have held Donnelly seat do u?

[Gracile]

Pennsylvania being guaranteed to flip Democratic by a comfortable margin, especially if Biden is the nominee.

U think a progressive could have held Donnelly seat do u?

No, and I'm not really sure what I said about Pennsylvania has to do with Indiana...

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

Suburbs are trending hard D

.......... but stats, data, and 2018.......

this is just a fact......

[TML]

That the tag "socialism" is still an effective boogeyman to hand Democrats a crushing defeat (and by extension, that Democrats still need to run a pro-corporate, pro-establishment, & pro-status quo candidate in order to win).

[morgankingsley]

That Warren has the best chance of beating Trump. I think Biden does. But I think Warren now beats Sanders

[Pericles]

That Warren has the best chance of beating Trump. I think Biden does. But I think Warren now beats Sanders

Biden still seems to have a perceived electability advantage, but I think this perception is inaccurate.

[morgankingsley]

That Warren has the best chance of beating Trump. I think Biden does. But I think Warren now beats Sanders

Biden still seems to have a perceived electability advantage, but I think this perception is inaccurate.

Hey give me credit at least I dropped the Sanders thing

[Pericles]

That Warren has the best chance of beating Trump. I think Biden does. But I think Warren now beats Sanders

Biden still seems to have a perceived electability advantage, but I think this perception is inaccurate.

Hey give me credit at least I dropped the Sanders thing

What do you mean with Sanders?

[morgankingsley]

That Warren has the best chance of beating Trump. I think Biden does. But I think Warren now beats Sanders

Biden still seems to have a perceived electability advantage, but I think this perception is inaccurate.

Hey give me credit at least I dropped the Sanders thing

What do you mean with Sanders?

Where I used to be convinced that nobody could win besides Sanders. I dropped that about a month or two ago.

[Pericles]

That Warren has the best chance of beating Trump. I think Biden does. But I think Warren now beats Sanders

Biden still seems to have a perceived electability advantage, but I think this perception is inaccurate.

Hey give me credit at least I dropped the Sanders thing

What do you mean with Sanders?

Where I used to be convinced that nobody could win besides Sanders. I dropped that about a month or two ago.

Oh right. Bernie seems pretty electable but the chances of each candidate in the GE aren't that different from one another, if Bernie wins a landslide then probably most candidates would beat Trump in such a scenario. It's only shifts of a few percentage points at best in play here, but given that 2020 is likely to be close this is still very important. Good on you.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

1.’’Ohio is toss-up (or barely tilt R) because Sherrod Brown won it last year’’
2.’’Texas will be decided by a hair because mUh tReNds
3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’
5.’’VA is still a swing state because socialism will backfire in NOVA’’

Funny. I don't see anyone saying those things except maybe number 5 by several of your fellow party members.

Well, number 2. is your main talking point.

Post deleted by moderator

Aren’t you predicting that Trump will either lose TX or will win it by >1 point ?

I think it will be pretty competitive. And every poll in the state supports this. I urge Republicans to keep burying their heads in the sand though.

From 538:

3 most recent polls

UT Texas Tyler: Trump +4 versus Biden, Trump +11 versus Warren, Trump +5 versus Sanders

YouGov: Trump +7 versus Biden, Trump +7 versus Warren, Trump +5 versus Sanders

UT Texas Tyler: UT Texas Tyler: Biden+2 versus Biden, Trump +3 versus Warren, Trump +2 versus Sanders

With the exception of the older UT poll, the other two don't even show a competitive race, so your assertion is verifiably wrong.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

M4A is popular

[lfromnj]

M4A is popular

It is relatively popular IMO but not when the candidates start demanding amnesty and free healthcare for illegals.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

M4A is popular

It is relatively popular IMO but not when the candidates start demanding amnesty and free healthcare for illegals.

I dunno supporting the privatization of the insurance industry as opposed to just giving people the option to pick a public option if they want to do so really seems to have done a number on Warren's campaign.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

M4A is popular

It is relatively popular IMO but not when the candidates start demanding amnesty and free healthcare for illegals.

It's not even popular anymore. Last Quinnipiac had it at 36-52 good idea/bad idea.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

M4A is popular

It is relatively popular IMO but not when the candidates start demanding amnesty and free healthcare for illegals.

I dunno supporting the privatization of the insurance industry as opposed to just giving people the option to pick a public option if they want to do so really seems to have done a number on Warren's campaign.

You mean nationalization?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

M4A is popular

It is relatively popular IMO but not when the candidates start demanding amnesty and free healthcare for illegals.

I dunno supporting the privatization of the insurance industry as opposed to just giving people the option to pick a public option if they want to do so really seems to have done a number on Warren's campaign.

You mean nationalization?

Whatever Warren's now calling her healthcare plan.

[ProudModerate2]

That Yang has a chance at winning the entire nomination.

[morgankingsley]

That Yang has a chance at winning the entire nomination.

As somebody who prefers Yang to the others, even I have to agree

[Ferguson97]

Bump

what has aged well and what hasn't?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

"There's still plenty of time for things to change."

"[Bad event X] is good for Trump."