2020 Poll Hype Thread

[LimoLiberal]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

[charcuterie]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

Yep. But IA has the potential to say a lot about how the rest of the midwest goes, though as we inch closer to the end of this cycle I'm much more interested in the south as far as high-quality polling goes.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1322237947144491013?s=20

[BudgieForce]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

I think Selzer also polls for Grinnell College which does the occasional national poll.

[forza nocta]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

How Biden performs in Iowa is a good tell of his chances across the midwest. Selzer had Hillary at 39% and Trump +7 in their final Iowa poll, which was a sign of how badly Hillary was gonna do in the midwest. If Biden is at 47-49% and around tied with Trump, we will know he’ll do well in WI/MI/PA

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

How Biden performs in Iowa is a good tell of his chances across the midwest. Selzer had Hillary at 39% and Trump +7 in their final Iowa poll, which was a sign of how badly Hillary was gonna do in the midwest. If Biden is at 47-49% and around tied with Trump, we will know he’ll do well in WI/MI/PA

IA is more rural than most of the midwestern states Biden will be targeting. A Selzer poll won't say too much about suburban trends (don't delve too deep into the crosstabs).

[Xing]

The IA poll will be very important in seeing whether Greenfield is still in it. I'll guess Trump +1 in the Presidential race, a tie in the Senate race.

[LimoLiberal]

*Predictions*

GA-Landmark: Trump +2, Perdue +4
IA-Selzer: Trump +5, Ernst +5
PA-Monmouth: Biden +6
PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +6
FL-NYT/Siena: Tied
WI-NYT/Siena: Biden +4
AZ-NYT/Siena: Biden +4, Kelly +5

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1322217824782266375

Well.....I guess we will definitively see if MTURK is a valid method lol

[xavier110]

Predictions:

IA-Selzer: +2 Trump, Tied Senate
PA-NYT/Siena: +6 Biden
FL-NYT/Siena: +4 Biden
WI-NYT/Siena: +7 Biden
AZ-NYT/Siena: +5 Biden, +7 Kelly

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1322301799622201345

[Buzz]

Landmark(GA): Trump +1

Selzer(IA): Trump +3

1/1.  It’s sad how predictable polling has become.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Landmark(GA): Trump +1

Selzer(IA): Trump +3

1/1.  It’s sad how predictable polling has become.

Yeah yeah, we're all impressed

[redjohn]

Has Nate Cohn said when the final four NYT/Siena polls will be released? I'm guessing they won't release them one-by-one with such little time left.

[Malarkey Decider]

Has Nate Cohn said when the final four NYT/Siena polls will be released? I'm guessing they won't release them one-by-one with such little time left.

Doubt they release any on Election Day itself, so I'm guessing two on one of Saturday/Sunday, and then the final two (probably PA/FL IMO) on Monday.

[Bootes Void]

Predictions:

IA-Selzer: Tied, Greenfield+3
PA-NYT/Siena: +8 Biden
FL-NYT/Siena: +5 Biden
WI-NYT/Siena: +7 Biden
AZ-NYT/Siena: +4 Biden, +6 Kelly
PA- Monmouth:+7 Biden

We should get one more high quality poll of South Carolina,Nevada, Texas, Montana, Minnesota, Alaska and Ohio before Tuesday, but i guess thats asking too much

[Ferguson97]

IA-Selzer: Trump+1, Greenfield+1

PA-NYT/Siena: Biden+7
FL-NYT/Siena: Biden+3
WI-NYT/Siena: Biden+9
AZ-NYT/Siena: Biden+4, Kelly+8

PA-Monmouth: Biden+6

[Gass3268]

I’m guessing Data For Progress will be releasing a mass of polls sometime for Tuesday like they did for the primaries.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

PA-NYT/Siena: Biden+3
FL-NYT/Siena: Tied
WI-NYT/Siena: Biden+5
AZ-NYT/Siena: Biden+2

PA-Monmouth: Biden+3

[Buzz]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

[Bojack Horseman]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

There is no appreciable shift toward Trump occurring.

[Bojack Horseman]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

There is no appreciable shift toward Trump occurring.

And I am going to spend the next few days praying that that’s the case.

[Buzz]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

My predictions for polls is not the same as my predictions for the actual results.