2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 192831 times)
ultraviolet
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« Reply #1975 on: October 25, 2020, 01:58:43 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 25, 2020, 12:45:27 PM
Not sure where to post this, but: today, the Redsk--uh...Football Team Rule comes into play.  

For the uninitiated, the rule is a factitious relationship between the results of the last Washington Football Team (formerly Redskins) game before a Presidential Election and the results of that election.  

If Washington wins, the incumbent party remains in the White House.  If Washington loses, the incumbent party is ousted from the White House.  Since 1932, the rule has applied in all but four elections (1932, 2004, 2012, and 2016).  

Washington currently leads Dallas 9-3 at the end of the 1st quarter (and they have next week off).  

Yes yes, false correlation and all.  But if y'all want Biden to win, y'all better root for the Cowboys.  

Apparently, after 2004 it was revised:

Quote
When the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.

It still didn’t work in 2012 or 2016, but we can go with it. Since Hillary won the popular vote but not the election, this year is flipped, so if Washington wins, Trump loses. They’re now up 22-3. Woohoo!
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #1976 on: October 25, 2020, 02:08:33 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 25, 2020, 12:45:27 PM
Not sure where to post this, but: today, the Redsk--uh...Football Team Rule comes into play.  

For the uninitiated, the rule is a factitious relationship between the results of the last Washington Football Team (formerly Redskins) game before a Presidential Election and the results of that election.  

If Washington wins, the incumbent party remains in the White House.  If Washington loses, the incumbent party is ousted from the White House.  Since 1932, the rule has applied in all but four elections (1932, 2004, 2012, and 2016).  

Washington currently leads Dallas 9-3 at the end of the 1st quarter (and they have next week off).  

Yes yes, false correlation and all.  But if y'all want Biden to win, y'all better root for the Cowboys.  

Washington is dominating the Cowboys and Andy Dalton just got a really bad injury and Cowboys are down to their third-string QB, Ben Danucci.  Not looking good for Biden!  Fortunately this is the WFT, not the Redskins, who don't exist anymore.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1977 on: October 25, 2020, 03:42:24 PM »
Quote from: Arch on October 24, 2020, 09:21:53 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 24, 2020, 09:14:31 PM
Are we getting an ABC/WAPO poll tonight? The last one was 2 weeks ago... or will they just do a final one for next weekend?

Yeah, I imagine that most pollsters are likely going to hold out until the final weekend. No point releasing one right now and then scramble to put another one together for next weekend.

ABC / WAPO should start their daily tracker fairly soon. The tracker picked up on the Trump surge in the last 7-10 days of the election in 2016. Perhaps it starts tonight?
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Ljube
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« Reply #1978 on: October 25, 2020, 03:43:54 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 25, 2020, 03:42:24 PM
Quote from: Arch on October 24, 2020, 09:21:53 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 24, 2020, 09:14:31 PM
Are we getting an ABC/WAPO poll tonight? The last one was 2 weeks ago... or will they just do a final one for next weekend?

Yeah, I imagine that most pollsters are likely going to hold out until the final weekend. No point releasing one right now and then scramble to put another one together for next weekend.

ABC / WAPO should start their daily tracker fairly soon. The tracker picked up on the Trump surge in the last 7-10 days of the election in 2016. Perhaps it starts tonight?

The daily trackers are the best polls to pick up on late surges. I can't wait.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1979 on: October 25, 2020, 04:07:47 PM »
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VAR
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« Reply #1980 on: October 25, 2020, 04:15:36 PM »
Last poll: Trump +1
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1981 on: October 25, 2020, 04:23:16 PM »
Quote from: The Other Castro on October 25, 2020, 04:07:47 PM


Biden+1
Warnock+5
Ossoff/Purdue TIED
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redjohn
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« Reply #1982 on: October 25, 2020, 04:24:24 PM »
Quote from: The Other Castro on October 25, 2020, 04:07:47 PM


I really needed a reason to wake up at 5 AM, this is great
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1983 on: October 25, 2020, 07:56:09 PM »
The NYT TX poll will be released tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1984 on: October 25, 2020, 08:01:36 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 25, 2020, 07:56:09 PM
The NYT TX poll will be released tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern.

Tied
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #1985 on: October 25, 2020, 08:12:16 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 08:37:21 PM by Monstro Still Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia »
The last NYT/Siena Texas poll had Trump 46-43 with 11% undecided


I'll predict Trump 47-43 with 10% undecided. A margin just outside the margin of error that'd wash away any positive vibes that the UT-Tyler gave
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1986 on: October 25, 2020, 08:27:33 PM »
My guess is that it shows Trump up 47-43 or smtg and everyone on this forum starts dooming about Texas, which will be hilarious no matter what goes down come election night.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1987 on: October 25, 2020, 09:55:05 PM »


Don't like this pundit's attitude on twitter but putting this here for doomer types to keep sanity.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1988 on: October 25, 2020, 10:01:11 PM »
Tomorrow:
TX - NYT/Siena
GA - AJC

Wednesday
WI - Marquette Law School
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redjohn
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« Reply #1989 on: October 25, 2020, 10:06:58 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 25, 2020, 10:01:11 PM
Tomorrow:
TX - NYT/Siena
GA - AJC

Wednesday
WI - Marquette Law School



Pretty remarkable that we're on the verge of getting our last quality snapshots of the race in these battleground states. We're so close to the finish line.
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Buzz
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« Reply #1990 on: October 25, 2020, 10:15:03 PM »
I’m gonna miss the hype =(


Anyways predictions:

AJC: TIED (48-48)
NYT Texas: TIED (46-46)


Marquette WI: Biden +8 (50-42)
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Holmes
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« Reply #1991 on: October 25, 2020, 10:21:26 PM »
Marquette will be B+5
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exopolitician
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« Reply #1992 on: October 25, 2020, 10:22:55 PM »
GA: Biden +1
TX: Tied
WI: Biden +6
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forza nocta
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« Reply #1993 on: October 25, 2020, 10:25:26 PM »
With the way Marquette has been acting recently , Id be surprised if they have Biden over 50. Itll be like 49-44 Biden
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1994 on: October 25, 2020, 10:34:03 PM »
I would not be shocked if Wisconsin stayed nearly exactly the same.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1995 on: October 25, 2020, 10:39:25 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 25, 2020, 10:15:03 PM
I’m gonna miss the hype =(


Anyways predictions:

AJC: TIED (48-48)
NYT Texas: TIED (46-46)


Marquette WI: Biden +8 (50-42)
Don’t worry Buzz, Atlas obsesses over every race, you can expect poll hyping long after this.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1996 on: October 25, 2020, 10:42:37 PM »
Georgia: Biden+1
Texas: Tied
Wisconsin: Biden+7
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Buzz
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« Reply #1997 on: October 25, 2020, 10:58:10 PM »
Quote from: Single Issue Covid Voter on October 25, 2020, 10:39:25 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 25, 2020, 10:15:03 PM
I’m gonna miss the hype =(


Anyways predictions:

AJC: TIED (48-48)
NYT Texas: TIED (46-46)


Marquette WI: Biden +8 (50-42)
Don’t worry Buzz, Atlas obsesses over every race, you can expect poll hyping long after this.
If Trump loses Florida I’ll be gone =(
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1998 on: October 25, 2020, 10:59:46 PM »
I'm guessing Jo Jorgensen still has 5% in the Marquette poll. No idea how their likely voter screen allows so many of them through but it's been consistent.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #1999 on: October 25, 2020, 11:04:32 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 25, 2020, 10:58:10 PM
Quote from: Single Issue Covid Voter on October 25, 2020, 10:39:25 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 25, 2020, 10:15:03 PM
I’m gonna miss the hype =(


Anyways predictions:

AJC: TIED (48-48)
NYT Texas: TIED (46-46)


Marquette WI: Biden +8 (50-42)
Don’t worry Buzz, Atlas obsesses over every race, you can expect poll hyping long after this.
If Trump loses Florida I’ll be gone =(
Why?
Being wrong is part of the process.
I fully hope I am wrong in my predictions and definitely won’t be leaving if I am.
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