2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Well its been 48 hours, where is the GOP panic poll we were promised? I still think it was all hype.

Normally I would say the Wisconsin poll with Biden leading by 10, but really that isn't that far out of line with expectations by now.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Emerson with Florida Biden +3

Why is Florida polling all over the place. Zero consistency.

[LimoLiberal]

Tomorrow:
NC - (Monmouth, SurveyUSA?)

Anything else confirmed?

[WD]

Tomorrow:
NC - (Monmouth, SurveyUSA?)

Anything else confirmed?

I think NYT/Siena might be releasing their NC poll tomorrow, but I could be wrong.

[MillennialModerate]

NC Monmouth Prediction
Biden +3
Tillis +2
Cooper +12

[Stuart98]

NC Monmouth Prediction
Biden +3
Tillis +2
Cooper +12

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trafalgar has PA with Biden +2

This thing ain’t over yet. If Trump can keep PA he will win re-election.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Polls are meaningless if they don’t translate into actual votes. Between the disaster of mail in ballots, voter suppression due to Covid, and the beyond drastic enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, these are all strong indicators for a Trump re-election.

The polls are misleading, and the talking heads of the mainstream media are wrong.

[brucejoel99]

Polls are meaningless if they don’t translate into actual votes. Between the disaster of mail in ballots, voter suppression due to Covid, and the beyond drastic enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, these are all strong indicators for a Trump re-election.

The polls are misleading, and the talking heads of the mainstream media are wrong.

[Malarkey Decider]

Polls are meaningless if they don’t translate into actual votes. Between the disaster of mail in ballots, voter suppression due to Covid, and the beyond drastic enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, these are all strong indicators for a Trump re-election.

The polls are misleading, and the talking heads of the mainstream media are wrong.

lmao

[redjohn]

Polls are meaningless if they don’t translate into actual votes. Between the disaster of mail in ballots, voter suppression due to Covid, and the beyond drastic enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, these are all strong indicators for a Trump re-election.

The polls are misleading, and the talking heads of the mainstream media are wrong.

This is a very lazy take. Of course polls don't translate into actual votes...What they do is predict who is going to vote, and based on a representative sample size they predict the ballpark of the results. I'm not sure what "voter suppression due to Covid" means or how it hurts Democrats, and the enthusiasm gap is not real. You believing that the ~42% of likely voters who are currently planning on voting for Trump are more enthusiastic does not mean that pool of voters is going to make up pluralities or majorities in the battleground states Trump needs to win.

It's fine to base predictions on gut feelings, but this is discussion of polls and if you truly believe the polls are wrong then you need to quantify your reasoning and your reasoning is just random assumptions that won't actually change anything.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1315717706168107015

Biden +3

I will now accept all accolades.  Thank you.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trafalgar has PA with Biden +2

This thing ain’t over yet. If Trump can keep PA he will win re-election.

If only Trafalgar, Trump's most favorable pollster that LITERALLY inflates his numbers as part of their methodology shows Trump behind in PA, his chances of winning the state are very very low.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's another chance for everyone who wanted NYT/Siena to poll Kansas last time:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1316022436559679489

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's another chance for everyone who wanted NYT/Siena to poll Kansas last time:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1316022436559679489

Have to go with MT, I’m sorry.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Literally not a single insane person on this forum thinks Biden will win by 17%, but the fact that the good outliers for Biden are +14-17, while the outliers that favor Trump are +4-7% spells very bad news for Trump beacuse it signifies a change in the national environment towards Biden regardless of how accurate the polls themselves are in the margin

[GP270watch]

 I'm confused what was the shocking poll being alluded to?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Literally not a single insane person on this forum thinks Biden will win by 17%, but the fact that the good outliers for Biden are +14-17, while the outliers that favor Trump are +4-7% spells very bad news for Trump beacuse it signifies a change in the national environment towards Biden regardless of how accurate the polls themselves are in the margin

RCP better not include that garbage in their aggregate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Literally not a single insane person on this forum thinks Biden will win by 17%, but the fact that the good outliers for Biden are +14-17, while the outliers that favor Trump are +4-7% spells very bad news for Trump beacuse it signifies a change in the national environment towards Biden regardless of how accurate the polls themselves are in the margin

RCP better not include that garbage in their aggregate.

Even RCP has Trump +10 RN. Also; just beacuse it's an outlier doesn't mean it's inherently bad; it's just inaccurate. You should include the outliers that are bullish on Trump and the ones that are bullish on Biden to create a well rounded polling average

[Torrain]

Optimum & Guardian, head to head Biden +17 (57-40).

You really believe these polls? lol gtfo

Literally not a single insane person on this forum thinks Biden will win by 17%, but the fact that the good outliers for Biden are +14-17, while the outliers that favor Trump are +4-7% spells very bad news for Trump beacuse it signifies a change in the national environment towards Biden regardless of how accurate the polls themselves are in the margin

RCP better not include that garbage in their aggregate.

Mate, if the RCP average is going to include every Rasmussen and Trafalgar poll, it can survive one wildly pro-Biden outlier.

[Buzz]

I hope we can get some decent Arizona polling soon.  I’m about ready to flip it on my map.

[It’s so Joever]

I hope we can get some decent Arizona polling soon.  I’m about ready to flip it on my map.

“Decent polling” and “Arizona” don’t match.

[Devout Centrist]

I hope we can get some decent Arizona polling soon.  I’m about ready to flip it on my map.

Lol

[Gass3268]

OH Predictive Insights (AZ) is releasing their poll on Thursday. They have been pretty pro-Biden this cycle, but they were one of McSally's best in 2018.