Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Day 19: Final Day of AIP (+ABM) Voting: 243,901 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 2,505,079 votes.

AIP: Very strong day for Democrats. Those following the numbers day-to-day can clearly see why. Lots of youngs storming the polls at the last-minute, as well as non-whites, first-time voters and a solid close-out performance among females.

ABM: A hair over 10k votes today were ABM, for a total of 216,187 thus far. This has been roughly the number received each day for the past week. We're 7,000 short of the final 2018 count with four days to go. Additionally, 79.00% of 273,630 valid Georgia ABMs have been returned thus far, effectively already reaching 2018's final percentage return rate.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

130352 	White	53.44%
73528 	Black	30.15%
6029         Asian	2.47%
6907    	Latino	2.83%
27085 	Other	17.99%

139719	Female	57.29%
103175 	Male	        42.30%	
1007          Other       0.41%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1437750	White	57.39%
730971	Black	29.18%
47497	Asian	1.90%
47311       Latino	1.89%
241550	Other	9.64%

1391917	Female	55.56%
1106863	Male	        44.18%	
6299	        Other	0.26%

[jamestroll]

Okay, after doing NY gov I will now do GA Gov astrology.

[Adam Griffin]

Okay, after doing NY gov I will now do GA Gov astrology.

If Kemp wins I will PUKE and VOMIT all over the FLOOR

[GeorgiaModerate]

Okay, after doing NY gov I will now do GA Gov astrology.

If Kemp wins I will PUKE and VOMIT all over the FLOOR

OK, but you clean it up.

[Orwell]

Okay, after doing NY gov I will now do GA Gov astrology.

My crystals are telling me Kemp wins

[Adam Griffin]

Saturday Georgia ABM Update: 4,038 votes were accepted today, for a total of 219,615 valid returned ABMs (out of 271,292 currently valid ABM ballots; 80.95% return rate) & 2,509,117 total votes.

I probably won't bother with the typical breakdowns until the Monday update, as the sheer number processed today and/or possibly tomorrow are too few for tea leaf-reading.

[David Hume]

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Screw it: we're 72 hours away and this R internal was taken the first week of October (+ I've already showed it to some Atlas members in confidence). I got the region boundaries used, the topline margins from each region and the share of each region in the poll for the presidential leaked to me. Here's the map/regional breakdowns (reconstructed by me in DRA) along with 16/18 margins added (by me, of course). 2500 LVs.

"NW Georgia" here includes a significant portion of suburban ATL turf (Cherokee, Paulding, even Carroll) - but it would not shock me at all to see more a shift across the broader turf when compared to NE GA: a lot of people moving into NE GA are wealthy out-of-state types seeking rural life (make of that what you will). NW (non-ATL) GA on the other hand is an area with the largest Latino population share in GA (as a broader geographic region) and is one of the most heavily-manufacturing economies in the country. Latinos + tariffs/job losses + the suburban ATL swings = not too surprising.

I don't expect it to swing by 11 points any more than I expect the inner ATL metro to only swing by 8, but alas. Some of these regions only have 150-300 LVs each. Rounded, this showed Biden +1 overall.

The northwest shifted from R+51 to R+40? Seems very unlikely.

[Adam Griffin]

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Screw it: we're 72 hours away and this R internal was taken the first week of October (+ I've already showed it to some Atlas members in confidence). I got the region boundaries used, the topline margins from each region and the share of each region in the poll for the presidential leaked to me. Here's the map/regional breakdowns (reconstructed by me in DRA) along with 16/18 margins added (by me, of course). 2500 LVs.

"NW Georgia" here includes a significant portion of suburban ATL turf (Cherokee, Paulding, even Carroll) - but it would not shock me at all to see more a shift across the broader turf when compared to NE GA: a lot of people moving into NE GA are wealthy out-of-state types seeking rural life (make of that what you will). NW (non-ATL) GA on the other hand is an area with the largest Latino population share in GA (as a broader geographic region) and is one of the most heavily-manufacturing economies in the country. Latinos + tariffs/job losses + the suburban ATL swings = not too surprising.

I don't expect it to swing by 11 points any more than I expect the inner ATL metro to only swing by 8, but alas. Some of these regions only have 150-300 LVs each. Rounded, this showed Biden +1 overall.

The northwest shifted from R+51 to R+40? Seems very unlikely.

What you quoted was 2016/2018 results along with the results of that October 2020 poll: the after-the-fact results are below. The poll missed the NW Georgia region by 5 points, but everything else was 2 points or less (or spot-on, in the case of the metro).

Also realized my original post from 2020 mislabeled the "Black Belt region" (showed the 2016/18 results & Oct 2020 poll margins in favor of D candidates when the winning margins should have been displayed as the R candidates):

[US Politics Fanatic]

Lmao, Trump endorsed Kemp for the first time a few hours ago at a rally in Dayton, Ohio.

[Woody]

Trump endorsed Walker.. along with Brian Kemp during his Dayton rally. In that case, Kemp better get his act together in 2024, unlike last time.

[2016]

Georgia Republicans, please vote! Too much is at stake here. There will be no Country to take back in 2024 if we don't put a dent into the Biden Agenda.

[Buzz]

Trump is probably going to try and take credit for Kemp winning lolz.  What a hack, Kemp should just continue to ignore him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is probably going to try and take credit for Kemp winning lolz.  What a hack, Kemp should just continue to ignore him.

Yeah, this is just another of Trump's last-minute endorsements of people who were going to win anyway, in order to pad his record and ego.

[Adam Griffin]

ABM Voting, Saturday-Monday: 19,269 ballots were returned, for a grand total of 2,524,348 votes.

As of Monday, 234,347 mail ballots have been returned and accepted, out of 271,185 total valid ballots: a 86.42% return rate.

Breakdown of Sat-Mon voters:

Code:

10358 	White	53.75%
5544 	Black	28.77%
978           Asian	5.08%
468    	Latino	2.43%
1921 	Other	9.97%

11668	Female	60.55%
7524 	Male	        39.05%	
77            Other         0.40%

Final pre-Election Day totals:

Code:

1448108	White	57.37%
736515	Black	29.18%
48475	Asian	1.92%
47779       Latino	1.89%
243471	Other	9.64%

1403585	Female	55.60%
1114550	Male	        44.15%	
6213	        Other	0.25%

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Abrams ahead, now they’re going to miraculously “find” a bunch of votes for Lyin’ Brian Kemp?! STOP THE COUNT!

[Gracile]

The fact that this turned out to be a much better night for Democrats than anticipated makes Abrams' performance even more pathetic.

[Roll Roons]

RIP:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1592993741383815169?cxt=HHwWgsDSycTXuZssAAA...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

RIP:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1592993741383815169?cxt=HHwWgsDSycTXuZssAAA...

Only 68, but he’s been speaker the last 12 years, and only the 4th GOP speaker ever

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1593226531501113345

[Suburbia]

Poor Stacey.

I think she burned out Black voters with the refusal to concede in 2018, with the celebrity tour 2019-present.

She thought she was entitled to run for president or vice president in 2020.

Lunacy.

When you lose, keep your head down and run again and hope to win.

The fame got into her head and now Dems won't touch her in 2026. They don't want the 90s Braves in her...loser/loser/loser

She should probably be the DNC chair, Jaime Harrison is not effective and should probably run for Clyburn's seat.

[Podgy the Bear]

She should probably be the DNC chair, Jaime Harrison is not effective.

I agree with this.

[henster]

I think she was a contender for DNC Chair but turned it down to run for Governor, obviously. But being Chair would've been a better out for her in hindsight. Before this election she was known as one of the biggest GOTV organizers in the country and credited for flipping GA blue for Biden, now she's a 2x loser. As chair she would've kept her status without ever being pressured to run for office. 

[Agafin]

Meh. "Abrams helped turn Georgia blue" was always a massive exaggeration. Democrats will obviously never give credit to a republican for that kind of stuff but the truth is that Kemp is the one who actually made it possible for Biden to win. It is under his rule as secretary of state that voter registration was made incredibly easy to the point that virtually every VEP in Georgia was registered to vote by 2020.

What Beto did in 2018 in Texas was way more impressive than what Abrams did in 2018 in Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

27 counties offering Saturday voting today after the state Supreme Court overruled SoS decision to bar it given today is a state holiday.

53% of the state's vote and population are in these 27 counties. Biden won them 64-35; the remaining 132 counties combined were Trump 66-33.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c7977bd6-1719-49f4-aa37-e8ab6593ed07




17 counties will offer Sunday voting tomorrow (52% of state's pop/votes). These counties combined were 64-35 Biden; remaining 142 counties were 65-34 Trump.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::86e6f8e0-faca-4109-b255-ba4b460c2f0b

[scutosaurus]

A summary of the Senate and gubernatorial results in each Metro ATL precinct with at least 40% Asian VAP:

DeKalb
Dunwoody (42.1% Asian): Warnock +38.3, Abrams +23.6 (Warnock +14.7)

Forsyth
Johns Creek (41.6% Asian): Walker +6.3, Kemp +22.5 (Warnock +16.2)
Windermere (41.1% Asian): Walker +13.5, Kemp +29.6 (Warnock +16.1)

Fulton
Alpharetta 12B (58.4% Asian): Warnock +28.4, Abrams +10.6 (Warnock +17.8 )
Johns Creek 1 (54.3% Asian): Warnock +24.4, Abrams +9.1 (Warnock +15.3)
Johns Creek 2 (46.2% Asian): Warnock +20.1, Abrams +3.9 (Warnock +16.2)
Johns Creek 7 (45.9% Asian): Warnock +20.3, Abrams +4.3 (Warnock +16.0)
Johns Creek 6 (41.9% Asian): Warnock +1.8, Kemp +12.3 (Warnock +14.1)
Sandy Springs 29A (40.9% Asian): Warnock +33.0, Abrams +20.3 (Warnock +12.7)

Gwinnett
Duluth I (54.5% Asian): Walker +0.1, Kemp +18.0 (Warnock +17.9)

All of this is to say that, as exits suggested, Abrams did very, very poorly with Asian voters, more noticeably so than with any other racial group. Of course, her biggest underperformances were in wealthy white precincts around Buckhead, Sandy Springs, and Brookhaven, but this assortment of precincts comes pretty close.