Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Agafin]

Georgia Republicans say DOJ suit against voting law could give Kemp political boost

(CNN)The Justice Department is suing Georgia over the state's new voting restrictions -- and handing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who signed the changes into law earlier this year, a potential political boost ahead of his reelection bid.

Sources close to Kemp described the DOJ's actions as a positive development for the governor, who has spent months defending himself against Donald Trump and the former President's push to overturn the 2020 election results. Now, Kemp has a more preferable opponent: the Biden administration.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/politics/brian-kemp-georgia-doj-lawsuit/index.html

Interesting development and I actualy agree. For the first time in forever, the narrative is back to Kemp vs Dems/Biden/Abrams rather than Kemp vs Trump.

[Agafin]

Is it possible for Abrams to get 50% outright and avoid a run-off? Or are there some green or minor dem candidates who render such a scenario near Impossible?

[Agafin]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Nobody was acting as if it was 35%. But 7% is substantial, considering a 53-47 early vote is even less than the R/D EV composition in 2018.

2018 is like a lifetime away when it comes to early voting since that was prior to Trump's demonization of mail-in voting. I'd say these results are incomparable with the previous ones and we just have to wait for the final turnout to make comparisons.

[Agafin]

On NBC, with ~99% of the vote reported, there are 709756 votes on the D side and 1193642 on the R side. That means a partisan split of 62.7%-37.3%. The breakdown by voting method is:

66.9%-33.1% election day (56% of total)
58.4%-41.6% early in person (40% of total)
52.2%-47.8% early by mail (4% of total).

How does that compare to 2020 and earlier? It seems to me like the number of people voting by mail is drastically less than before. And btw, do third parties also hold primaries in Georgia?

[Agafin]

Well I will say, I think one of the states where EV can be most constructive is Georgia. Both in 2020 and 2021, you could tell that the black vote was energized by their share of the EV.

Maybe I'm misremembering but was the black vote actually energized in 2020 (in Georgia)? I know it was energized in the runoff (2021) but the actual general election had standard or even slightly underwhelming share of the electorate that was black, no?

[Agafin]

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

How does it compare with 2018/2020? I feel like the black share is dropping a little too fast for the D's chances.

[Agafin]

Meh. "Abrams helped turn Georgia blue" was always a massive exaggeration. Democrats will obviously never give credit to a republican for that kind of stuff but the truth is that Kemp is the one who actually made it possible for Biden to win. It is under his rule as secretary of state that voter registration was made incredibly easy to the point that virtually every VEP in Georgia was registered to vote by 2020.

What Beto did in 2018 in Texas was way more impressive than what Abrams did in 2018 in Georgia.