Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

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https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1348600545611837442

How much was the margin between the two of them last time?

Carr won by a little under 3.

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Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

In the general, absolutely, in the primary, I have no idea.

Wonder when it finally flips. Trump won it by over 30 points, but it's trending left REALLY quickly. Gotta be one of the fastest left-trending counties in the country.

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https://twitter.com/GeoffDuncanGA/status/1394331333959294985

Duncan officially announces that he won't run for reelection, and will start a new organization to reform the GOP.

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https://twitter.com/GeorgiaDemocrat/status/1465899752730468354

Is Georgia truly gone for Republicans if Democrats are doing this well in the current national environment?

Its possible. Democrats nationwide should start taking lessons from the state party.

As I've said, GA probably has the most competent state Democratic party in the country.

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Probably Democrats, since it looks like Gwinnett was over 60% Dem.

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WHAT? REALLY? OMG I'M SO SHOCKED!

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Yeah, Georgia is pretty much where Virginia was a decade ago. It's only a matter of time before the Democrats take over the state.

Georgia is at least as much of a reverse Mississippi as it is a Virginia. Being in the Deep South tends to come with extreme inelasticity.

Yeah, Virginia remains slightly more elastic because it's more influenced by the Northeast. Going forward, I could see Virginia being blue in federal races but somewhat swingy at the gubernatorial level, while Georgia is solidly Dem for a long time.

2002 was the first time Georgia elected a GOP Governor since Reconstruction, so there's precedent for one party dominating the state.

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I can't imagine Perdue running a campaign on the rhetoric that won Dems the Georgia Senate Runoffs will do him any favors in the general. Kemp would be stronger in the ATL suburbs and would be more competitive against Abrams.

January 2021 was a much better environment for Democrats than November of 2022 will be. Plus, Perdue didn't lose by very much. He's going to win the primary and general election.

2014 was a much better environment for the GOP than 2012, but Perdue won by a smaller margin than Romney. 2020 was a worse environment for Democrats than 2018, but Biden won the state even though Abrams didn't.

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Kind of funny how the tables have completely turned from a few years ago when Kemp ran as a "politically incorrect conservative" and Perdue was a suburban-friendly Chamber of Commerce type.

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Kemp-Perdue is a foregone conclusion at this point, but for a more interesting question...

Who wins the Republican primary for Secretary of State?  Will Raffensperger survive?  I expect that a lot of crossover Democrats (I was one) voted for him.

People were writing his obituary a while ago, but he's run a good race and could very well survive. Maybe even in the first round.

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https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1529258432120995841

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No f**king way:
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1529265867267112965

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There are apparently a decent number of people who voted for Kemp, Raffensperger and MTG. I don't know anything anymore.

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97% in and he has 51.6%.

Yeah, this is 100% over.

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RIP:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1592993741383815169?cxt=HHwWgsDSycTXuZssAAA...

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A summary of the Senate and gubernatorial results in each Metro ATL precinct with at least 40% Asian VAP:

DeKalb
Dunwoody (42.1% Asian): Warnock +38.3, Abrams +23.6 (Warnock +14.7)

Forsyth
Johns Creek (41.6% Asian): Walker +6.3, Kemp +22.5 (Warnock +16.2)
Windermere (41.1% Asian): Walker +13.5, Kemp +29.6 (Warnock +16.1)

Fulton
Alpharetta 12B (58.4% Asian): Warnock +28.4, Abrams +10.6 (Warnock +17.8 )
Johns Creek 1 (54.3% Asian): Warnock +24.4, Abrams +9.1 (Warnock +15.3)
Johns Creek 2 (46.2% Asian): Warnock +20.1, Abrams +3.9 (Warnock +16.2)
Johns Creek 7 (45.9% Asian): Warnock +20.3, Abrams +4.3 (Warnock +16.0)
Johns Creek 6 (41.9% Asian): Warnock +1.8, Kemp +12.3 (Warnock +14.1)
Sandy Springs 29A (40.9% Asian): Warnock +33.0, Abrams +20.3 (Warnock +12.7)

Gwinnett
Duluth I (54.5% Asian): Walker +0.1, Kemp +18.0 (Warnock +17.9)

All of this is to say that, as exits suggested, Abrams did very, very poorly with Asian voters, more noticeably so than with any other racial group. Of course, her biggest underperformances were in wealthy white precincts around Buckhead, Sandy Springs, and Brookhaven, but this assortment of precincts comes pretty close.

I feel like a lot of these Asian voters tend to be pretty wealthy and educated, so it's not terribly surprising that they have a penchant for splitting tickets like a lot of wealthy and educated white voters.