Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

So, Ryan just randomly overperformed? There has been no heavily documented shift in special election results post-Dobbs?

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

So, Ryan just randomly overperformed? There has been no heavily documented shift in special election results post-Dobbs?

Worth noting that in NY-19, a lot of rural areas actually shifted towards Molinaro from 2020 Pres and he greatly overperformed in his home County of Dutchess.

However, the turnout in that election was still in the 30s even though we know it'll be higher in November. That increase could wipe out whatever turnout edge Dems may have had.

[Zebulan9003]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

Screw Kemp but he said this in 2018. Nobody that is voting for him cares.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

[2016]

Kemp is still going to win.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I think it will be a long time before that happens. Trump, it appears to me, will have a lasting influence on the Republican Party and the direction it takes, and it is definitely becoming a more downscale, working-class, non-college-educated party than it was before. But who was the last Republican you voted for? Isakson in 2016?

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Correct me if I’m wrong Calthrina, but your Bennet vote seems like a good example of why it can be pretty tough to unseat incumbents even with decent candidates. Not only are incumbents very unlikely to flame out compared to untested candidates, but there seem to be a fair amount of independent-minded voters where it takes a convincing case to throw out an incumbent unless they’ve done something memorably bad. This might speak to why we’re seeing a lot of incumbents polling well this cycle even if there are complaints against their national party.

[2016]

To call people like Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensberger, etc. a danger to Democracy is really something to behold. They are not dangerous. Brian Kemp is pretty decent very successful Governor.

It's the likes of Stacey Abrams, Andrew Gillum, AOC, Talib, Omar and to lesser extend Val Demings and Cheri Beasley I find extremely dangerous to our Country.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Plus the act of voting for the reason Republican in the primary and then voting against them in the general creates a negative feedback loop against such Republicans going forward. "Lost because they weren't conservative enough/strong enough/tough enough/Trumpist enough". It negates the whole purpose and benefit of voting for them in the primary in the first place.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Correct me if I’m wrong Calthrina, but your Bennet vote seems like a good example of why it can be pretty tough to unseat incumbents even with decent candidates. Not only are incumbents very unlikely to flame out compared to untested candidates, but there seem to be a fair amount of independent-minded voters where it takes a convincing case to throw out an incumbent unless they’ve done something memorably bad. This might speak to why we’re seeing a lot of incumbents polling well this cycle even if there are complaints against their national party.

Well, I'm biased towards Bennet because I interned in his office down here in Colorado Springs back in the summer of 2017. Had it not been for a transportation mishap, I would have had the chance to meet Bennet in person. At any rate, I generally approve of him, although I certainly don't agree with some of his votes and stances. I think he should have voted for Gorsuch, at least, for the Supreme Court, and he's much more to the left on abortion than I am. But he's a workhorse, not a showhorse, and I don't think O'Dea has made a convincing case as to why Bennet should be ousted.

I strongly approve of Polis however, and of almost everything he has done, except for the abortion law that he signed earlier this year. Ganahl seems unhinged to me, as she chose an election denier (Danny Moore) as her running mate, who was expelled from Colorado's Redistricting Commission by his colleagues when old Facebook posts of his relating to the 2020 election surfaced. Moreover, she's recently made crazy and unfounded allegations about "furries" in our schools, which the school districts themselves have rejected. It's ironic, because I voted for Ganahl in 2016, when she was up for current position on the Board of Regents. She seemed much more reasonable at that time.

I approve of how Griswold has done her job, although many have accused her of being "transparently ambitious" and she appeared in an advertisement with her predecessor, Wayne Williams, that some saw as a gimmick to promote herself to the voters. I voted for Williams in 2018 when he lost reelection to her, as I approved of his performance, but now I'm switching to her on the same basis.

[Calthrina950]

Plus the act of voting for the reason Republican in the primary and then voting against them in the general creates a negative feedback loop against such Republicans going forward. "Lost because they weren't conservative enough/strong enough/tough enough/Trumpist enough". It negates the whole purpose and benefit of voting for them in the primary in the first place.

Agreed, and if I were in Georgia, I would be voting for Kemp and Raffensperger, as well as Warnock. But I think that most of the "swing" or "persuadable" voters in Georgia, such as they are, plan on voting in exactly such a manner.

[2016]

Plus the act of voting for the reason Republican in the primary and then voting against them in the general creates a negative feedback loop against such Republicans going forward. "Lost because they weren't conservative enough/strong enough/tough enough/Trumpist enough". It negates the whole purpose and benefit of voting for them in the primary in the first place.

Agreed, and if I were in Georgia, I would be voting for Kemp and Raffensperger, as well as Warnock. But I think that most of the "swing" or "persuadable" voters in Georgia, such as they are, plan on voting in exactly such a manner.

I would vote for Kemp, Raffensberger but would leave the Senate Race blank. Giving Democrats another blank check vote in the Senate is not what I would envision. I couldn't stomach voting for Warnock given that he threw the Country into the carpet with his votes.

[Calthrina950]

Plus the act of voting for the reason Republican in the primary and then voting against them in the general creates a negative feedback loop against such Republicans going forward. "Lost because they weren't conservative enough/strong enough/tough enough/Trumpist enough". It negates the whole purpose and benefit of voting for them in the primary in the first place.

Agreed, and if I were in Georgia, I would be voting for Kemp and Raffensperger, as well as Warnock. But I think that most of the "swing" or "persuadable" voters in Georgia, such as they are, plan on voting in exactly such a manner.

I would vote for Kemp, Raffensberger but would leave the Senate Race blank. Giving Democrats another blank check vote in the Senate is not what I would envision. I couldn't stomach voting for Warnock given that he throw the Country into the carpet with his votes.

There is a Libertarian on the ballot in Georgia, so that would provide an outlet to those who don't want to vote for either Warnock or Walker, such as Lt. Gov Duncan (who has explicitly said he won't vote for Warnock, but doesn't approve of Walker and has been critical of him).

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I mean this is a huge fallacy as if you arent even willing to vote for someone like Raffensperger than what incentive do Republicans have of nominating people like Raffensperger.

Also Abrams was an election denier as well so yah

[2016]

Plus the act of voting for the reason Republican in the primary and then voting against them in the general creates a negative feedback loop against such Republicans going forward. "Lost because they weren't conservative enough/strong enough/tough enough/Trumpist enough". It negates the whole purpose and benefit of voting for them in the primary in the first place.

Agreed, and if I were in Georgia, I would be voting for Kemp and Raffensperger, as well as Warnock. But I think that most of the "swing" or "persuadable" voters in Georgia, such as they are, plan on voting in exactly such a manner.

I would vote for Kemp, Raffensberger but would leave the Senate Race blank. Giving Democrats another blank check vote in the Senate is not what I would envision. I couldn't stomach voting for Warnock given that he throw the Country into the carpet with his votes.

There is a Libertarian on the ballot in Georgia, so that would provide an outlet to those who don't want to vote for either Warnock or Walker, such as Lt. Gov Duncan (who has explicitly said he won't vote for Warnock, but doesn't approve of Walker and has been critical of him).

I hope Duncan at least is considering running against Ossoff in 2026.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I think it will be a long time before that happens. Trump, it appears to me, will have a lasting influence on the Republican Party and the direction it takes, and it is definitely becoming a more downscale, working-class, non-college-educated party than it was before. But who was the last Republican you voted for? Isakson in 2016?

Also keep in mind this is not something just isolated to the US. The Right all across the world is moving in this direction, not just the GOP , which tells you that its gonna be very hard to move back. Heck even in Canada the Conservative Party there in a massive landslide nominated someone who made his main campaign pledge to fire the gatekeepers( consulting class, politicians, bureaucrats, or agencies), his political candidacy was kicked off with him supporting the anti vax mandate Trucker Protest, and wants to implement DeSantis style anti Woke Laws in Canada but taking grants away from university who dont protect free speech. Hell in Alberta they just nominated someone who wants to outright nullify many federal laws so yah the right is moving like this all across the world.

You see it here, in Canada, in Western Europe, in India etc so that tells you this trend is global

[2016]

Calthrina950,
There is one other name where I could not stomach to vote for and that is Mandela Barnes. Barnes and Warnock are the same on every Major Issue. Barnes acting like Wisconsin is New York State. If I were in Wisconsin and would be allowed to vote there I'll probably vote to reelect Johnson. I don't agree with everything Johnson says and does but he is definitly better then Barnes is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I think it will be a long time before that happens. Trump, it appears to me, will have a lasting influence on the Republican Party and the direction it takes, and it is definitely becoming a more downscale, working-class, non-college-educated party than it was before. But who was the last Republican you voted for? Isakson in 2016?

Good guess.  I also voted for at least one Republican in a local race that year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MentallyDivine/status/1578442334223888385

*gasp* How dastardly of them!

Are you voting a straight Democratic ticket?

Yes.  Since I changed my identification from I to D in late 2018, I've had a policy of never voting for a Republican in a general election (I do occasionally vote in R primaries).

So not even for Raffensperger, then? Georgia isn't a state known in recent times for extensive ticket-splitting in any case, so perhaps your sentiment is more widespread than it would seem. If that's the case, Kemp and Raffensperger might win more narrowly than some suspect.

As for me, I'm probably going to be voting a straight Democratic ticket in Colorado (and will definitely be voting for Polis, Bennet, and Griswold), although I am not entirely decided yet about Attorney General or Treasurer, and I do plan on voting for most of the local Republicans running in El Paso County. I did vote in the Republican primary this year to help stop Hanks, Lopez, and Peters from winning their respective races.

Nope.  I did vote in the R primary this year for Raffensperger, Kemp, and as many other non-Trumpy candidates as I could identify.  But I view the party in its current state as a grave danger to American democracy, and I won't enable it by voting for any of its candidates in a general election.  If the party ever purges itself of its dangerous tendencies (an outcome I think is unlikely, but we can always hope) then I would be open to voting for Republicans again.

I mean this is a huge fallacy as if you arent even willing to vote for someone like Raffensperger than what incentive do Republicans have of nominating people like Raffensperger.

Also Abrams was an election denier as well so yah

It's voting for the least-bad outcome; I don't see why some of you think that's controversial.  I think it's arguably a more reasonable strategy than tactical voting for a worse candidate in the opposite primary in the hope that they'll make a weaker general election opponent.  My overall preference would be the Democrat, but if a Republican should win then I'd prefer to have Raffensperger in office than his Trump-backed primary opponent.  Since I could influence the latter choice with my vote (and the D primaries here were snoozers) I voted in the R primary for Raff, Kemp, etc. 

Also, I don't understand why this isn't an incentive for the Republicans to run people like Raff; he's almost certain to win in November.  The other crossover voters and I helped the Republicans nominate their best possible GE candidate!

[skbl17]

Back to county redistricting: the majority-Dem Cobb County Commission will try to amend the commission district map passed by the General Assembly. The Commission cites the home rule provisions in the state constitution, allowing counties and municipalities to amend legislation pertaining to their specific jurisdiction (a "local bill").

Typically, redistricting for county and city governing bodies (commissions, school boards, etc.) is treated as local legislation and passed in coordination between local officials and the county's General Assembly delegation. However, for the most recent session the General Assembly opted to draw their own maps in a few (largely Dem-leaning) counties like Cobb and Gwinnett.

Under the new maps (and assuming Cobb is not successful in this maneuver) is that Cobb's Dem majority will be left untouched (3-2), but one Dem commissioner (Jerica Richardson) will be drawn out of her seat and another GOP district will be shored up. In Gwinnett, the Dem monopoly (5-0) will give way to a 4-1 majority for at least one or two terms, as one district was redrawn to be more Republican.

If Cobb is successful, the Commission will just pass the map originally proposed by the Dem-controlled General Assembly delegation, which was mostly a least-change map. I don't know if Gwinnett will try something similar, but given the time left before the midterm election, I don't think they will.