Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[MaxQue]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

[Agafin]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

Textbook Malapportionment. What will happen as the rest of Canada keeps growing faster than Quebec? I guess a system like India where their ratio is arbitrarily "frozen" might happen due to their distinct culture?

[CumbrianLefty]

Something a Tory government nationally might tackle?

[Oryxslayer]

I mean this situation is not like America's redistribution whatsoever, so we shouldn't compare apples and oranges. Canada isn't exactly in the business of cutting seats, countries historically with this tradition have favored just consistent expansions of the legislature to prevent reallocation, with the exception of extreme and unavoidable population and seat loss. That's what happened here: Alberta wasn't denied a seat cause Quebec maintained one, the parliament just got bigger then initially put forward.

The second point is that Canada does not have OMOV strictness. Every Atlantic province is waaaaayyy over-represented compared to it's actual population, but old provisions lock in the region's seat counts based on what they were historically. Then within the provinces you often have severely undersized districts in the far north. There are allowed to be as such to facilitate indigenous electoral access,  because the region is so remote that a equitably sized seat would not be sensible to the scattered communities, or both.

As long as FPTP is maintained, the Tories won't stop any of these traditions. Like changing FPTP itself, they benefit the parties with the ability to access power on their own.

[MaxQue]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

Textbook Malapportionment. What will happen as the rest of Canada keeps growing faster than Quebec? I guess a system like India where their ratio is arbitrarily "frozen" might happen due to their distinct culture?

As the number of seats went up, the ratio is not frozen, as the Bloc likes to scream to whomever wants to hear it.

The point is more that no provinces ever lost seats since 1968 (Quebec and Manitoba losing 1 each) and it seems to be a precedent most parties wanted to keep (there was some Conservative opposition, but the leaders agreed to pass it without a vote, as it would be toxic to the electoral prospect of any party in Quebec to have MPs voting against it).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

[Oryxslayer]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

Also because if push came to shove and PP won a minority, Legault would see that the Bloc lets them govern.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

And this something I repeated ad nauseam when it was announced Quebec would lose a seat: No, they absolutely will not.

[MaxQue]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

Also because if push came to shove and PP won a minority, Legault would see that the Bloc lets them govern.

Legault has no power over the Bloc (a PQ Premier might).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

Also because if push came to shove and PP won a minority, Legault would see that the Bloc lets them govern.

Legault has no power over the Bloc (a PQ Premier might).

I don't think that's what he was implying, it's more that having the Bloc as kingmaker in Ottawa would secure wins for Legault. Whatever Bloquistes and Caquistes disagree on, they share the common goal of securing more autonomy for Quebec, which is really the Bloc's main purpose anyway.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Regarding the Ontario Greenbelt controversy, I feel like the opposition would have a more effective attack if they focused on the "greenbelt" part, rather than the "developer buddies" part. The greenbelt remains genuinely very popular, and I think there are more PC voters that can be reached through that line of attack, as opposed to primarily focusing on Doug Ford's ties to those developers. I know that's a scandal in its own right, but focusing too much on the scandal can be detrimental to making actual gains. The federal Conservatives did the same for years and got absolutely nowhere.

And yes, I know what my username is. Completely unrelated lmao.

[mileslunn]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/why-justin-trudeau-is-not-resigning this is interesting and wondering what people's thoughts are here?  I get impression Trudeau is kind of stumped why his numbers so low and thinks will be easy to turn it around.  And maybe he can but I think the headwinds are very tough.  Tories near or above majority territory largely due to cost of living crisis.  That is not easily fixable but nor was covid and I feel Trudeau exceled at covid as he came across as caring and that he was trying to do everything he could to fix problem.  With housing I think his attitude to many comes across as not caring.  People don't expect governments to fix things overnight, but they want to see they

1.  recognize there is a problem
2.  taking action

Trudeau it seems relying too much on Conservatives tripping up and that may happen.  But like or dislike Poilievre (and lots do dislike him) he is a much more solid campaigner than O'Toole or Scheer were.  In theory O'Toole should have been harder to beat as he is closer to political centre where most are than Poilievre but I would argue while ideology matters, ability to campaign does too.  

That being said if Poilievre does beat Trudeau, my guess is Poilievre after 3 wins (if he manages to get that far, no guarantee or even likelihood does) probably resigns as that will have been two PMs in a row losing on fourth time around so probably strong signal to future leaders its not worth trying.  We may lack term limits but if Trudeau loses, it may become a defacto unwritten term limit of 3 terms and you are out.  

[lfromnj]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jamie-sarkonak-house-arrest-for-impregnating-daughter-a-result-of-race-based-sentencing

So Canada is now doing race based sentencing.

While the Crown established, using past cases, that a jail sentence of four to six years was normal for this kind of crime, the appeal court dismissed this as merely a guideline. The court also noted that the offenders, in previous cases, were not African Nova Scotians. When deciding whether offenders of such heritage should serve house arrest or jail, the court wrote that “a more nuanced approach” was required. In short, a racial discount was to be applied.

[MaxQue]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jamie-sarkonak-house-arrest-for-impregnating-daughter-a-result-of-race-based-sentencing

So Canada is now doing race based sentencing.

While the Crown established, using past cases, that a jail sentence of four to six years was normal for this kind of crime, the appeal court dismissed this as merely a guideline. The court also noted that the offenders, in previous cases, were not African Nova Scotians. When deciding whether offenders of such heritage should serve house arrest or jail, the court wrote that “a more nuanced approach” was required. In short, a racial discount was to be applied.

It is that way since 1999, since a Supreme Court decision.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

I think people forget that the Tories made some not-insignificant electoral gains in the Quebec City area in previously Bloc-voting seats during the Harper years. While it's not much in the grand scheme of things, it does suggest the Conservatives have room to grow in Quebec if they put the effort into it and run on a convincing message.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Regarding the Ontario Greenbelt controversy, I feel like the opposition would have a more effective attack if they focused on the "greenbelt" part, rather than the "developer buddies" part. The greenbelt remains genuinely very popular, and I think there are more PC voters that can be reached through that line of attack, as opposed to primarily focusing on Doug Ford's ties to those developers. I know that's a scandal in its own right, but focusing too much on the scandal can be detrimental to making actual gains. The federal Conservatives did the same for years and got absolutely nowhere.

And yes, I know what my username is. Completely unrelated lmao.

Conflict of interest!

Just kidding  

[Upper Canada Tory]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/why-justin-trudeau-is-not-resigning this is interesting and wondering what people's thoughts are here?  I get impression Trudeau is kind of stumped why his numbers so low and thinks will be easy to turn it around.  And maybe he can but I think the headwinds are very tough.  Tories near or above majority territory largely due to cost of living crisis.  That is not easily fixable but nor was covid and I feel Trudeau exceled at covid as he came across as caring and that he was trying to do everything he could to fix problem.  With housing I think his attitude to many comes across as not caring.  People don't expect governments to fix things overnight, but they want to see they

1.  recognize there is a problem
2.  taking action

Trudeau it seems relying too much on Conservatives tripping up and that may happen.  But like or dislike Poilievre (and lots do dislike him) he is a much more solid campaigner than O'Toole or Scheer were.  In theory O'Toole should have been harder to beat as he is closer to political centre where most are than Poilievre but I would argue while ideology matters, ability to campaign does too.  

That being said if Poilievre does beat Trudeau, my guess is Poilievre after 3 wins (if he manages to get that far, no guarantee or even likelihood does) probably resigns as that will have been two PMs in a row losing on fourth time around so probably strong signal to future leaders its not worth trying.  We may lack term limits but if Trudeau loses, it may become a defacto unwritten term limit of 3 terms and you are out.  

I think there are two concomitant possibilities. Firstly, Trudeau mistakenly thinks that he will be able to rely on vote efficiency like he did in the last two elections to win a minority government with 32 percent or so of the vote. Given he has 29 percent or so in the polls now, he may think he may flip many seats by gaining a few percentage points in national polling, as long as the votes gained are in competitive swing ridings. Secondly, he believes he may be able to negotiate another agreement with NDP to keep himself in power. Friendly reminder that in our Westminster system, it is the incumbent Prime Minister who has the first opportunity to form a government after an election, even if the PM's party didn't win the plurality of seats in said election, as long as the PM can keep the confidence of the House. Now that Trudeau has managed to create a deal with the NDP, he may be convinced he can rely on that to remain in power. The best-case scenario for the Liberals is that the two things I mentioned both occur simultaneously.

I don't think either strategy will work, firstly because the LPC's vote efficiency is not as strong in GTA+Metro Vancouver as it once was and also because seat projections suggest that LPC+NDP together will not have enough seats to overtake the CPC, whose seat projections are reaching majority territory now. But this desperate, last-resort strategy is what may be in Trudeau's head.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Why have the polls got noticeably worse for the Liberals just recently?

"Housing is not a Federal responsibility" - Justin Trudeau, July 2023, in the middle of the biggest housing crisis in Canada since WW2.
Not hard to see how things got out of control here, and despite what people might say, PP has been screaming about inflation and affordability for years now so he has credibility here.

And to say that Trudeau is lying about this is an understatement. Directly from the CMHC's website, a corporation owned by the federal government;

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/nhs/federal-provincial-territorial-housing-agreements#:~:text=Federal%2C%20provincial%20and%20territorial%20governments,better%20housing%20outcomes%20for%20Canada.

'Federal, provincial and territorial governments are primary partners in housing and have a shared responsibility and complementary roles for housing.'

Trudeau launched his so-called 'National Housing Strategy' through the CMHC. The CMHC wants to control half the mortgage insurance market, which increases market concentration and drives up prices.

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/the-cmhc-wants-its-market-share-back-but-some-observers-wonder-if-the-timing-is-right

But Trudeau's policies have failed so suddenly 'muh housing isn't a federal responsibility'!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/why-justin-trudeau-is-not-resigning this is interesting and wondering what people's thoughts are here?  I get impression Trudeau is kind of stumped why his numbers so low and thinks will be easy to turn it around.  And maybe he can but I think the headwinds are very tough.  Tories near or above majority territory largely due to cost of living crisis.  That is not easily fixable but nor was covid and I feel Trudeau exceled at covid as he came across as caring and that he was trying to do everything he could to fix problem.  With housing I think his attitude to many comes across as not caring.  People don't expect governments to fix things overnight, but they want to see they

1.  recognize there is a problem
2.  taking action

Trudeau it seems relying too much on Conservatives tripping up and that may happen.  But like or dislike Poilievre (and lots do dislike him) he is a much more solid campaigner than O'Toole or Scheer were.  In theory O'Toole should have been harder to beat as he is closer to political centre where most are than Poilievre but I would argue while ideology matters, ability to campaign does too.  

That being said if Poilievre does beat Trudeau, my guess is Poilievre after 3 wins (if he manages to get that far, no guarantee or even likelihood does) probably resigns as that will have been two PMs in a row losing on fourth time around so probably strong signal to future leaders its not worth trying.  We may lack term limits but if Trudeau loses, it may become a defacto unwritten term limit of 3 terms and you are out.  

The Canadian public has a habit of keeping governments around until we all just spontaneously reach a point of "Okay, enough of this guy". If Trudeau's at that point, and he may not yet be depending on how the rest of his term goes, it will be hard to turn it around. Poilievre blowing it seems far more likely than Trudeau actually regaining favour, but like you said, Poilievre is also a disciplined messenger. He's began to change the narrative by focusing narrowly on the issues where he has most resonance, while slowly pushing out the ones where he doesn't. I mean, O'Toole himself was less controversial, but the party caucus in that era was bozo meltdown after bozo meltdown. Some of Poilievre's big hits like intensifying around transit stations, selling off 15% of government land to build affordable housing, and speeding up immigrant work permits, were all part of the O'Toole platform too. Yet nobody noticed, because O'Toole was an awful messenger who jumped from idea to idea, never offering a concrete set of core ideas to energize people around.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think shifts have been happening for following reason.  Note polls are a snapshot and can change.

Quebec:  It has been pretty steady there and kind of makes sense as housing less of an issue and things people upset with Liberals haven't been impacting Quebec.  At same time I find Quebecers have shallowest loyalty to any party so they are prone to massive swings, but typically during election campaign, not before.  See 1984 and 2011 as examples of this.

Conservatives are also starting to do better in Quebec, tbf. There have been a few polls with the CPC above 20% in Quebec, which we haven't seen since the brief-lived O'Toole surge in 2021 (in an actual election, 20% would be the best performance since 2008). Probably more a case of rising tides lifting all boats than anything specific about Quebec.

But Quebec seems to mostly be an afterthought for the Tories, because of how steep the odds are there. Short of a serious surge, they can only realistically pick up 4-5 ridings. Atlantic Canada, despite being much smaller, offers more target seats, and the big prize is obviously southern Ontario. So apart from the nationwide Poilievre bump this summer, there's really not much of an effort to get Quebec to vote Conservative, because there's not much ground they can realistically gain there.

I think people forget that the Tories made some not-insignificant electoral gains in the Quebec City area in previously Bloc-voting seats during the Harper years. While it's not much in the grand scheme of things, it does suggest the Conservatives have room to grow in Quebec if they put the effort into it and run on a convincing message.

Oh of course, flipping Quebec needs to be part of the Conservatives' long-term strategy. It's often said that Harper's goal of creating the CPC was to dislodge Liberals as the natural governing party of Canada, and his gains in the Quebec City and Saguenay/LSJ areas, was a part of that path. But Tories stagnated in Quebec after that, failing to make gains in the rest of Quebec. He shifted the focus to just the old "win the suburbs, win the election" path that made Mike Harris successful, but like Mike Harris, his support in the suburbs was fickle and there was no viable alternative.

But election campaigns are less concerned with long-term vision, because they have to focus on what's ahead of them. The Tories, if they just maintain current levels of support, are in reach of a majority that they desperately want, and the most efficient path to that majority doesn't involve much of Quebec

[Benjamin Frank]

Randall Garrison might end MP term early as Sooke mayor steps up as NDP candidate
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke NDP MP Randall Garrison says he is considering retiring in April, depending on when the next federal election occurs.
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/randall-garrison-might-end-mp-term-early-as-sooke-mayor-steps-up-as-ndp-candidate-7485185

[Agafin]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/millennials-nearly-twice-as-likely-to-vote-for-conservatives-over-liberals-new-survey-suggests/article_7875f9b4-c818-547e-bf68-0f443ba321dc.html

Congrats to Trudeau for making Canada the first anglo-country where millenials might vote to the right of boomers.

[Upper Canada Tory]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/why-justin-trudeau-is-not-resigning this is interesting and wondering what people's thoughts are here?  I get impression Trudeau is kind of stumped why his numbers so low and thinks will be easy to turn it around.  And maybe he can but I think the headwinds are very tough.  Tories near or above majority territory largely due to cost of living crisis.  That is not easily fixable but nor was covid and I feel Trudeau exceled at covid as he came across as caring and that he was trying to do everything he could to fix problem.  With housing I think his attitude to many comes across as not caring.  People don't expect governments to fix things overnight, but they want to see they

1.  recognize there is a problem
2.  taking action

Trudeau it seems relying too much on Conservatives tripping up and that may happen.  But like or dislike Poilievre (and lots do dislike him) he is a much more solid campaigner than O'Toole or Scheer were.  In theory O'Toole should have been harder to beat as he is closer to political centre where most are than Poilievre but I would argue while ideology matters, ability to campaign does too.  

That being said if Poilievre does beat Trudeau, my guess is Poilievre after 3 wins (if he manages to get that far, no guarantee or even likelihood does) probably resigns as that will have been two PMs in a row losing on fourth time around so probably strong signal to future leaders its not worth trying.  We may lack term limits but if Trudeau loses, it may become a defacto unwritten term limit of 3 terms and you are out.  

The Canadian public has a habit of keeping governments around until we all just spontaneously reach a point of "Okay, enough of this guy". If Trudeau's at that point, and he may not yet be depending on how the rest of his term goes, it will be hard to turn it around. Poilievre blowing it seems far more likely than Trudeau actually regaining favour, but like you said, Poilievre is also a disciplined messenger. He's began to change the narrative by focusing narrowly on the issues where he has most resonance, while slowly pushing out the ones where he doesn't. I mean, O'Toole himself was less controversial, but the party caucus in that era was bozo meltdown after bozo meltdown. Some of Poilievre's big hits like intensifying around transit stations, selling off 15% of government land to build affordable housing, and speeding up immigrant work permits, were all part of the O'Toole platform too. Yet nobody noticed, because O'Toole was an awful messenger who jumped from idea to idea, never offering a concrete set of core ideas to energize people around.

In certain respects, O'Toole's housing platform was actually slightly better than Poilievre's - it included waiving capital gains tax on rental housing investments and cracking down on money laundering. But you're right, O'Toole was an awful messenger and struggled to energize the base.

[mileslunn]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/millennials-nearly-twice-as-likely-to-vote-for-conservatives-over-liberals-new-survey-suggests/article_7875f9b4-c818-547e-bf68-0f443ba321dc.html

Congrats to Trudeau for making Canada the first anglo-country where millenials might vote to the right of boomers.

I think that has more to do with left has been in power longest here.  I have found globally millennials tend to be more anti-status quo while boomers more status quo and less right vs. left.  True in English speaking world has favoured left, but also Canada saw leftward swing earlier than others.  US is different in that they have strong racial divide and millennials are 40% non-white while boomers only 15%.  Amongst whites I believe age divide much smaller and if you throw in education disappears as higher Democrat support amongst millennials more due to fact more likely to have a college degree.  Pretty sure Trump won white millennials without a college degree.

UK is probably due to austerity a decade ago as theirs was quite extreme and that really hurt support with millennials.  If Poilievre tries to implement austerity at level David Cameron did, probably similar thing happens in Canada.  Luckily for him, deficit is only around 1-2% of GDP, not 10% like it was in UK so probably not needed unless takes supply side approach of massive unfunded tax cuts like Liz Truss did.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/millennials-nearly-twice-as-likely-to-vote-for-conservatives-over-liberals-new-survey-suggests/article_7875f9b4-c818-547e-bf68-0f443ba321dc.html

Congrats to Trudeau for making Canada the first anglo-country where millenials might vote to the right of boomers.

I think that has more to do with left has been in power longest here.  I have found globally millennials tend to be more anti-status quo while boomers more status quo and less right vs. left.  True in English speaking world has favoured left, but also Canada saw leftward swing earlier than others.  US is different in that they have strong racial divide and millennials are 40% non-white while boomers only 15%.  Amongst whites I believe age divide much smaller and if you throw in education disappears as higher Democrat support amongst millennials more due to fact more likely to have a college degree.  Pretty sure Trump won white millennials without a college degree.

UK is probably due to austerity a decade ago as theirs was quite extreme and that really hurt support with millennials.  If Poilievre tries to implement austerity at level David Cameron did, probably similar thing happens in Canada.  Luckily for him, deficit is only around 1-2% of GDP, not 10% like it was in UK so probably not needed unless takes supply side approach of massive unfunded tax cuts like Liz Truss did.

Obama was also the most popular leader among millennials in any Anglo nation as well . Unlike with Trudeau he remained popular with millennial voters throughout his term