Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not showing up in SC, he was supposed to make an impact with WWC voters in VA and NC, the states he went to.  Even Harris is polling at 10%. Joe Biden will be our nominee.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's an article, why Beto is doing so badly in the polls, after having a head start, like Harris before the Biden and Bernie surge in April, 2019

https://kprcradio.iheart.com/featured/the-pursuit-of-happiness/content/2019-03-14-beto-orourke-will-never-be-president-ever-heres-why/

He supported a mandatory military draft, also, was arrested for DWI and Burglary in 1996

[SCNCmod]

was arrested for DWI and Burglary in 1996

The Burglary was for going on to a University of Texas El Paso property with friends... and was dropped.  The DUI is obviously more serious... but it has been brought up in every primary and election he's ever been in and has never had an impact.  After all, the last President from Texas also had a DUI & didn't effect his electability at all.

Regarding SC... Beto was never competing for Top 3 there.  The two states Beto has the chance of a surge later on down the road are in IA & NV (not SC or NH).

SC was always probably going to end up being a Biden state with Kamala as the only chance to challenge Biden- and Bernie will end up likely in 3rd with a steady but maxed out support at 15%.

We will see how Beto's numbers grow in IA & NV as Beto finally starts doing national media regularly.  I think it will be key for him to keep a steady and active national media presence (along with the town halls in early states).  But the IA type town halls only work to increase numbers if coupled with the national media presence... which I think he has finally figured out.  But we will see.

There are enough people still bashing him despite low polling numbers... which tells me many do still view him and the come from behind, late surge threat- of all of the candidates in the race.  The poll showing him beating Trump by more than any other Dem could pay dividend if the numbers in the fall show show this type of high electability.  (He beat Trump by 10pts.  I think the next closest was 6pts).

Not to mention many also think Texas is possibly in play in 2020 (and some polls have him beating Trump in Texas) b/c Beto is the candidate that can win over the most Texas R's & Ind's needed to have a chance at pulling off.

But his overall electability could be key in the fall (regardless of what people think about Texas).

[HarrisonL]

Every candidate in this race has baggage from the past, some more than others. There is no perfect candidate, there are almost always scandals, it still doesn't change the fact that Beto's personality is perfect to attract voters.

[Thunder98]

Oof

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/beto-orourkes-campaign-is-going-so-badly-that-no-ones-even-bothering-to-dig-up-dirt-on-him-anymore/

[Sir Mohamed]

Oof

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/beto-orourkes-campaign-is-going-so-badly-that-no-ones-even-bothering-to-dig-up-dirt-on-him-anymore/

The dude completely flamed out. The Scott Walker of 2020, it seems. If he can't regain momentum after the first debate, he should drop out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, he did flame out: like Walker, Michelle Bachman and Tim Pawlenty

[Progressive Pessimist]

He has a CNN town hall tonight. Let's see if that moves the needle again. He really needs it to.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

He has a CNN town hall tonight. Let's see if that moves the needle again. He really needs it to.

The funny part about all these doom and gloom posts are that he’s consistently getting positive coverage in Iowa and the national stories about them, though there may not be any, have been pretty positive this week. The media loves a “comeback” narrative.

[Rookie Yinzer]

His town hall was pretty good. This slump can be attributed to him ignoring national outlets and Biden getting in. He is down but not out.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

His town hall was pretty good. This slump can be attributed to him ignoring national outlets and Biden getting in. He is down but not out.

This^

[GoTfan]

His town hall was pretty good. This slump can be attributed to him ignoring national outlets and Biden getting in. He is down but not out.

I'm still of the opinion that ignoring national media outlets is never a good idea.

[Mr. Smith]

I wonder if Iowa will be for Beto what New Hampshire was for Kasich?

[SCNCmod]

I wonder if Iowa will be for Beto what New Hampshire was for Kasich?

Beto needs for Iowa to go for him similar to how it did for Edwards in the 2004 Presidential Election (this was the election before Edwards went of the rails).  The only difference- Beto needs to come out on top... rather than a strong 2nd place.

In the 04 Iowa Caucus- Edwards made a little splash, then went back to under 5% in the polls. (at this point, Edwards was not in the top 5... and only polling around 4-5%).  Whereas at this point Liberman, Howards Dean, and Dick Gephardt were the front runners... and later Wes Clark lead the polls.  Both Kerry & Edwards ended up having late surges in Iowa... With Kerry finishing a few points better than Edwards.  Final result was (Kerry 37, Edwards 32, Dean 18%, Gephardt 10).  Edwards and Kerry didn't really start surging until the final 6 weeks.

[Pericles]

Beto probably made a mistake not running for Senate, he isn't President material right now and especially would have trouble winning in such a large field, but he would have been a good candidate to run against Cornyn. However once he loses his presidential bid he will be too tainted and his electability in a Texas Senate race would be greatly reduced. That said, Hegar is a strong candidate so this race isn't Safe R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Beto probably made a mistake not running for Senate, he isn't President material right now and especially would have trouble winning in such a large field, but he would have been a good candidate to run against Cornyn. However once he loses his presidential bid he will be too tainted and his electability in a Texas Senate race would be greatly reduced. That said, Hegar is a strong candidate so this race isn't Safe R.

I disagree. Him running and losing a 2020 Senate race would have been terrible for him. He can easily run in 2024 for Senate and have another Presidential run in him later. What is Ted Cruz going to do? Paint him as a loser who ran for President and failed? That would describe him too! Beto is fine no matter how this turns out.

Let’s be honest. He’s a white man. He will be able to go away and reintroduce himself fairly easily.

[Panhandle Progressive]

His town hall was pretty good. This slump can be attributed to him ignoring national outlets and Biden getting in. He is down but not out.

This^

Ditto

[Koharu]

I posted this elsewhere already, but Beto has now requested that the House move forward on impeachment, which means he actually has my attention now.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1131041040469843968

[Grassroots]

I posted this elsewhere already, but Beto has now requested that the House move forward on impeachment, which means he actually has my attention now.

And which means he's losing my attention even more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto and Harris aren't gonna be the nominees.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Prediction: Beto will drop out before Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CNN: Beto O'Rourke is polling worse than ever

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/11/politics/beto-orourke-poll-of-the-week/index.html

Not even remotely surprising. The man has no unique policy proposals and even his supporters can't explain why they like him (aside from his sheer skill at demagoguery). He's run a terrible campaign so far, and he was unqualified from the start. Still can't understand why so much of Atlas thought he'd be a major player in this race.

So far Beto has had almost a national media blackout (certainly compared to most of the frontrunners)... this explains the polling drop imo.  But now it appears he is starting to do more national media- assuming he ramps this up, his polling will also increase. 

I also think, contrary to what some think, the debates will help Beto.  Many, wrongly imo, have the impression that Beto is not very articulate regarding policy or isn't as smart as many of the candidates, etc ... given this low bar, I think Beto will easy beat expectations in debates and will be surprised that he is very knowledgeable regarding policy matters. If this in fact does happen, he will get a good boost following the debates as well.

I remember this guy thinks that Beto, could still win

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

His town hall was pretty good. This slump can be attributed to him ignoring national outlets and Biden getting in. He is down but not out.

Does your arm ache after making such a reach?

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Rourke's slump can be attributed to the fact that he is a total media creation and without 24/7 media fellation people have discovered he is a pathetic trust fund baby with no skills or accomplishments

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto should of been senator, but the TX state Dems nominated Valdez, and she didn't help Beto, due to her being blown out, by Greg Abbott.  Andrew White, even if he would have lost, could have helped Beto, in the long run.

Beto, having lost the Senate race, had presidential ambitions, but outside of TX, no one knows who he is.