🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

[MaxQue]

Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

The fact insulting an elected an elected official is a crime is quite disgusting in itself.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

And while we're talking about crises in East German state governments: Christian Democrat Lorenz Caffier has recently resigned as Interior Minister (and therefore also as Deputy Minister President) of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern after 14 (!) years owing to both the purchase of a handgun, intended for his hobby of hunting, and the undergoing of a shooting training from a "prepper" in 2018, who was a member of the banned right-wing extremist organization "Nordkreuz" and who is therefore observed by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Two ministers of the Baden-Württemberg state government from two (!) different parties generated headlines today.
On the one hand: Culture Minister Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) for pandering to the Covidiots by claiming that the "Leopoldina", the German National Academy of Natural Sciences, which provides the federal government with professional advice on Corona issues, "hasn't kept pace with the times", as they counseled the state government to temporarily suspend compulsory school attendance as of next week.
And on the other hand: Environment Minister Franz Untersteller (Greens) for driving 177 km/h (≙ 110 mph) within a 120 km/h (≙ 75 mph) zone. Oh, did I mention that this consummate hypocrite is a member of the motorist-hating Greens? 😒

By the way, the next state elections will take place on March 14, 2021... 😏

[President Johnson]

Two ministers of the Baden-Württemberg state government from two (!) different parties generated headlines today.
On the one hand: Culture Minister Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) for pandering to the Covidiots by claiming that the "Leopoldina", the German National Academy of Natural Sciences, which provides the federal government with professional advice on Corona issues, "hasn't kept pace with the times", as they counseled the state government to temporarily suspend compulsory school attendance as of next week.
And on the other hand: Environment Minister Franz Untersteller (Greens) for driving 177 km/h (≙ 110 mph) within a 120 km/h (≙ 75 mph) zone. Oh, did I mention that this consummate hypocrite is a member of the motorist-hating Greens? 😒

By the way, the next state elections will take place on March 14, 2021... 😏

Eisenmann is a complete lackluster candidate the CDU nominated for Minister-President, but they don't have anybody else. Strobl probably knows he's doomed against Kretschmann and much rather wants to hang on as chair of the state party and remain Interior Minister and Deputy Minister-President.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Eisenmann is a complete lackluster candidate the CDU nominated for Minister-President, but they don't have anybody else. Strobl probably knows he's doomed against Kretschmann and much rather wants to hang on as chair of the state party and remain Interior Minister and Deputy Minister-President.

Oh, Eisenmann is the Spitzenkandidat? I didn't even know about that. I always took it as settled that Merkel loyalist Thomas Strobl would receive the nomination, after he unexpectedly lost the primary against Guido Wolf in 2015.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meanwhile, there is government crisis in Saxony-Anhalt: The "Kenya coalition" of CDU, SPD and Greens, that was formed after the 2016 election, is sharply divided on approving a small increase of the national public broadcasting fee (all state government must approve such, and all other states have done so far). CDU MPs are very opposed to the increase, most likely because the AfD is. There's going to be a state election next year, and the AfD finished a strong second four years ago. Meanwhile, SPD and Greens support the increase.

After Interior Minister and Chair of the State CDU, Holger Stahlknecht, publically floated to break up the governing coalition during an interview and finish the remaining months of the term with a CDU minority cabinet, Minister-President Rainer Haseloff fired him today. That in itsself was a controversial move, as Stahlknecht is chair of the state party. However, he announced his intention to step down from this role now after being dismissed from the cabinet. But it looks unlikely the CDU MPs won't abandon their opposition to the fee hike.


Thuringia also made news today: The Landtag rescinded immunity for Björn Höcke, the far-right AfD leader at prosecutors requests. There are charges of incitement to racial hatred. Immunity for Minister-President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) was also rescinded after he showed the middle finger to a AfD MP earlier this year after the said MP filed a defamation complaint.

The fee is no longer an issue. I wonder who will benefit more from it in the next Saxony-Anhalt state election next June: the CDU or the AfD?

[President Johnson]

Eisenmann is a complete lackluster candidate the CDU nominated for Minister-President, but they don't have anybody else. Strobl probably knows he's doomed against Kretschmann and much rather wants to hang on as chair of the state party and remain Interior Minister and Deputy Minister-President.

Oh, Eisenmann is the Spitzenkandidat? I didn't even know about that. I always took it as settled that Merkel loyalist Thomas Strobl would receive the nomination, after he unexpectedly lost the primary against Guido Wolf in 2015.

Yes, she has been nominated months ago. Strobl withdrew after poor polling numbers. However, Eisenmann barely gets into double digits when polled one-on-one with Kretschmann, who's in mid to high 60s.

Some individual polls showed the CDU barely leading, however, I expect the Greens to go back up once Kretschmann actually starts campaigning. At this point, there isn't much public attention on the state election. It will be interesting to see whether Kretschmann serves out his full third term (he turns 73 next year) or whether he retires ahead of time. I could see him resigning a year or two early so that his successor can run as an incumbent then.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, she has been nominated months ago. Strobl withdrew after poor polling numbers. However, Eisenmann barely gets into double digits when polled one-on-one with Kretschmann, who's in mid to high 60s.

Some individual polls showed the CDU barely leading, however, I expect the Greens to go back up once Kretschmann actually starts campaigning. At this point, there isn't much public attention on the state election. It will be interesting to see whether Kretschmann serves out his full third term (he turns 73 next year) or whether he retires ahead of time. I could see him resigning a year or two early so that his successor can run as an incumbent then.

I just took a look at the latest polls, and I must say: The upcoming election is becoming really exciting. The Greens and the CDU regularly take turns at leading in the polls.
I always started from the premise that the next election would be a sure-fire success for the Greens, especially since the bigger party usually eats up the smaller one in a grand coalition, but this time the CDU seems to prevail.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here's the schedule for the upcoming state elections:

• March 14: Baden-Württemberg + Rhineland-Palatinate
• April 25: Thuringia (snap election) (postponed until Federal Election Day)
• June 6: Saxony-Anhalt
• September 26: Federal Election + Mecklenburg-Vorpommern + Thuringia (snap election) + Berlin¹⁾

1) The date for the Berlin state election has not officially been announced yet, though. If the expected election date does hold true, it will mark only the second time after Reunification that both the Bundestag and the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus are to be elected on the same day.

[President Johnson]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

[njwes]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

Why should The Left's voters care if he disrespects Merkel or flips off a AfD member? Seems like a plus!

[Astatine]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

Why should The Left's voters care if he disrespects Merkel or flips off a AfD member? Seems like a plus!

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

[President Johnson]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

Why should The Left's voters care if he disrespects Merkel or flips off a AfD member? Seems like a plus!

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

This. And right now he's facing backlash from across the spectrum.

[njwes]

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

Ah ok, I completely didn't realize he was viewed as a de-facto Social Democrat. For whatever reason I assumed that The Left could afford--at least in the East--to be a bit more hard-left and less open to criticism on grounds of aesthetics or respectability.

[President Johnson]

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

Ah ok, I completely didn't realize he was viewed as a de-facto Social Democrat. For whatever reason I assumed that The Left could afford--at least in the East--to be a bit more hard-left and less open to criticism on grounds of aesthetics or respectability.

What's interesting about Ramelow is also that he's a devoted Christian.

[Astatine]

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

Ah ok, I completely didn't realize he was viewed as a de-facto Social Democrat. For whatever reason I assumed that The Left could afford--at least in the East--to be a bit more hard-left and less open to criticism on grounds of aesthetics or respectability.

What's interesting about Ramelow is also that he's a devoted Christian.

And he's a good friend of his predecessor Christine Lieberknecht (CDU), who he suggested to become interim Governor during the Thuringia governmental crisis last year. When the CDU wanted to extend the term from 3 months to 1 year, she snubbed her own party and favored a CDU-Left coalition. He was even invited to her birthday.

The Left's success is dependent on pragmatism, actually. Several times over the last year, a red-red(-green) coalition was possible, but either SPD or Greens opted for another coalition as the Left was not considered a trustful partner (Thuringia 2009, Saarland 2009, Hesse 2008 - the Ypsilanti drama , Saarland 2012, Hesse 2013,..).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But I thought Candy Crush Governor Ramelow's political had been declared dead now by his own Twitter Antifa after calling his boss "Merkelchen"¹⁾... 🙅🏻‍♂️

1) That's called a diminutive.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

Ah ok, I completely didn't realize he was viewed as a de-facto Social Democrat. For whatever reason I assumed that The Left could afford--at least in the East--to be a bit more hard-left and less open to criticism on grounds of aesthetics or respectability.

I can see why you would think that, but AIUI the Eastern wing of Die Linke actually tends to be the more pragmatic one on matters of actual policy (being tainted by history is another matter), while the Western wing is the edgier one. Die Linke is an unusually left-wing post-communist party not because it is, as a whole, very left-wing (though elements certainly are), but because it is unusual for post-communist parties to be particularly left-wing at all.

[President Johnson]

Some polling updates for the March 13 Baden-Württemberg state election: Two seperate polls from February 4 and February 5 found the Greens of Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann leading the CDU 34-27% and 34-28%, respectively. That's outside the margin of error. Kretschmann is absolutely crushing the CDU's MP candidate, Eduction Minister Susanne Eisenmann, in head-to-head polls, winning 65% and 70%, while only 13% and 16% would favor her has head of government.

Meanwhile, the SPD is stuck at 10% and 11% and the FDP at 9%. AfD at 10%, which is five points less than in 2016. No other party would clear the 5% treshold.

The major question is whether the current Green-CDU "grand coalition" will be continued after the election, or whether the Greens can form a government with the SPD again, as they did in Kretschmann's first term from 2011 to 2016. It would be close if these polls hold up, though the FDP recently expressed openess for a "Traffic light coalition" with the Greens and SPD, something they rejected in 2016. Both these options would be preferrable in my opinion and the CDU needs to be back in opposition.

[Tender Branson]

There’s also another South-Western state election on the same day as BaWü:

Rheinland-Pfalz

There’s a new poll out as well, showing the SPD catching up to the CDU, but still a few points behind.

The SPD has won the previous election by a few points and trailed by 10 points a year ago - but has managed to come within 3 points now, at the expense of the Greens. They went from 18% to about 12% now.

The other parties experienced no meaningful changes in support.

Gov. Malu Dreyer (SPD) leads a government with the FDP and Greens.

She’s far ahead in the hypothetical Governor direct vote (and should therefore probably manage to come ahead of the CDU again, beating current polling).

[Tender Branson]

Gov. Kretschmann (Greens) stops campaigning for the March state election in BW, to look after his wife who has cancer.

[Estrella]

Some polling updates for the March 13 Baden-Württemberg state election: Two seperate polls from February 4 and February 5 found the Greens of Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann leading the CDU 34-27% and 34-28%, respectively. That's outside the margin of error. Kretschmann is absolutely crushing the CDU's MP candidate, Eduction Minister Susanne Eisenmann, in head-to-head polls, winning 65% and 70%, while only 13% and 16% would favor her has head of government.

Meanwhile, the SPD is stuck at 10% and 11% and the FDP at 9%. AfD at 10%, which is five points less than in 2016. No other party would clear the 5% treshold.

The major question is whether the current Green-CDU "grand coalition" will be continued after the election, or whether the Greens can form a government with the SPD again, as they did in Kretschmann's first term from 2011 to 2016. It would be close if these polls hold up, though the FDP recently expressed openess for a "Traffic light coalition" with the Greens and SPD, something they rejected in 2016. Both these options would be preferrable in my opinion and the CDU needs to be back in opposition.

What has the Kretschmann government been like policy-wise? I understand he is some sort of basically liberal centre-right conservagreen, but what does it look like in practice?

[Tender Branson]

With 2.5 weeks left until the two South-West state elections, the RP-SPD is still lagging behind the CDU there.

I wonder if Baldauf (CDU) can eek out a surprise win for the party there (the first since 1987).

[Astatine]

With 2.5 weeks left until the two South-West state elections, the RP-SPD is still lagging behind the CDU there.

I wonder if Baldauf (CDU) can eek out a surprise win for the party there (the first since 1987).

The RP-SPD was lagging behind the CDU in all polls until one week before the election in 2016. Support for the Greens has decreased a bit while the gap between CDU and SPD has narrowed, so the race for the largest party is pretty much a tossup.

Even with the CDU ahead, I think it's quite likely Malu Dreyer will be reelected as Minister-President for another term. Both Greens and FDP - the latter might seem surprising first, but RP has a long tradition of social-liberal cooperation - heavily lean towards a continuation of the traffic light coalition. If the FDP doesn't take the threshold (unlikely as of now), we might see a Red-Green coalition. Only if that is not possible (CDU-AfD majority or so, and that's really not probable) and under the assumption that the CDU becomes largest party, Baldauf could either go with another GroKo or Black-Green. But he is virtually unknown and Germans usually love their incumbent Minister-Presidents.