Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[2016]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

Wow not great. Mia might win this

In the latest StLC Update

McAdams GAINED 5,059
Love GAINED 4,722
The Votes came from a Democratic Stronghold.

McAdams is TOAST.

[Xing]

I await Republicans claiming that the Republican Party of Utah is guilty of voter fraud and "finding" votes for Love.

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

Wow not great. Mia might win this

In the latest StLC Update

McAdams GAINED 5,059
Love GAINED 4,722
The Votes came from a Democratic Stronghold.

McAdams is TOAST.

Its far too soon to be saying McAdams is toast(althought I doubt you care).

It was definitely a disappointing Salt Lake County dump today, but who knows what the ballots will look like tomorrow.

It'll definitely be close one way or the other.

[Nyvin]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies

That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points.

Salt Lake City isn't in the district.   It's the southwestern part of Salt Lake County.

[Thatkat04]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies

That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points.

Salt Lake City isn't in the district.  

I meant Salt Lake County, sorry.

[Tintrlvr]

Salt Lake Tribune still thinks McAdams will win, but it's looking better for Love than it did before.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/13/gehrke-math-doesnt-look/

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/with_replies

That was before today's disappointing update from Salt Lake City. There are over 30,000 ballots left in Salt Lake City, but McAdams needs to win them by a bigger margin in the coming days to offset Love's huge margins in Utah County. While Utah County only has about 5,000 votes left, Love won 74% of the last batch. McAdams won the latest batch of Salt Lake City by about 6 points.

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

Wow not great. Mia might win this

In the latest StLC Update

McAdams GAINED 5,059
Love GAINED 4,722
The Votes came from a Democratic Stronghold.

McAdams is TOAST.

The Salt Lake County update was not really that disappointing for McAdams. It could have been better, but he's still on track to win even if that result is repeated at all remaining counts in SLC. McAdams is currently ahead by about 1,350 votes. If Love wins 75% of the 5,000 remaining Utah County votes, as she did in the latest batch, she'd gain a net of 2,500 votes and lead by 1150 votes. If McAdams then wins 53% of the 30,000 remaining SLC votes, as he did in the latest batch, he'd gain a net of 1,800 votes and lead by 650 votes. (There might still be a few rural votes out but not more than net 200 votes or so for Love.) So McAdams is still favored, albeit very narrowly and the race will probably go to a recount.

[Bidenworth2020]

You dipsh**t you realize most of Utah County isn’t even in the 4th right

according to nyt, 48/73 precincts are in. SL county has 386/439 precincts in. just based on this, would guess love wins, based on her margins in utah.

[Nyvin]

I'd think Love wins this, but really all it would take is one good batch for McAdams to come in to throw the whole thing to him.

[Sestak]

I never got why they thought McAdams was favored so much.

Maybe they know which SLC precincts are out? Idk

[Thatkat04]

The next Salt Lake and Utah County updates are on Friday, so plenty of time to speculate.......lol.

[Thatkat04]

Well if Utah County only has 5000 ballots left to count, only like 25% or so of that is going to be in UT-4 if it’s proportional

There are 32,000 ballots left from Utah County, only 5,000 of which are in UT-4.

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062480549401382912

[lfromnj]

wait so how much left in the SLC of utah 4th?

[Sestak]

Well if Utah County only has 5000 ballots left to count, only like 25% or so of that is going to be in UT-4 if it’s proportional

There are 32,000 ballots left from Utah County, only 5,000 of which are in UT-4.

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062480549401382912

If that’s true, then winning what’s out in Utah by 50 would put her up by just over 1K. McAdams should be able to erase that with what’s left in SL. But who knows at this point.

[Thatkat04]

I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is.

[IceSpear]

I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is.

I'm pretty sure that happens all the time in close races.

[Virginiá]

What are you people doing chatting about this race? We need to fan out across UT-04 to find votes for McAdams!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is.

I'm pretty sure that happens all the time in close races.

Yeah, it’s 100% normal. Ami Bera (my Rep) went in 2012 before his race was officially called for him.

[Torrain]

Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today?

[Sestak]

Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today?

I believe LA County has been mentioned as dumping today - dump should have major implications on Cisneros-Kim (CA-39)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arizona pulled through in a way that Florida couldn't! Clearly one of these states with a high percentage of old, white retirees is better than the other. So thanks, Arizona, you decreased the Republican net gains in the Senate and helped take me out of my post-November 6 election malaise. It really is kind of remarkable to me that a bisexual, nonreligious Democrat managed to defeat a female Republican veteran. Sinema has clearly provided a road-map as to how a Democrat can win statewide in Arizona, and it needs to be considered for 2020.

The problem for McSally is that she ran as McTrump and Arizona hates Trump.

That's why she lost.

True. And to make matters worse it came off as phony like with Ed Gillespie. It just goes to show that embracing Trump only sometimes works, depending on your state. That same development would also explain Dean Heller's defeat.

[Torrain]

Any news about when/how many vote dumps we're getting from California today?

I believe LA County has been mentioned as dumping today - dump should have major implications on Cisneros-Kim (CA-39)

Thanks, I was sure there were dumps scheduled in LA, but couldn't find any further info on the SOS website. I thought I remembered 5pm, but I think that's just a holdover from the daily releases in AZ.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Sac County dumped about 50k (rough estimate) 40k ballots. Thurmond did slightly better than he had been doing (Tuck is down to 51.2 from 51.4). We’ll see where this race stands statewide within a couple of hours (SoS usually reports by 9 eastern, 6 pacific).

[Skill and Chance]

How is AZ SoS looking now?

[Ronnie]

Things don't portend well for Young Kim after the latest dump:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?