Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Virginiá]

This page is for all federal election discussion. Feel free to use other megathreads, but this is a general purpose thread.


Links:

https://gizmodo.com/how-to-watch-the-midterm-election-coverage-live-on-yout-1830222190
http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2018/11/01/cnn-to-live-stream-midterm-election-night-coverage/

(no cable provider required for CNN's election night live stream apparently)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

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New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306940.0

[Virginiá]

Atlas in roughly 15 hours:

[Virginiá]

In seriousness, I think you or some other mod mentioned that you might close off Atlas only to people who are registered to try to stop it from crashing? If so that would be nice if possible to somehow limit the server load enough.

Yes. I sent Dave some changes tonight. If he does them all you should notice some differences, besides members only. No search, no "new reply" warning when you click Post, small other things. I think it'll be enough. I hope so anyway!

[Virginiá]

There isn't really anything wrong with that post.

That being said, I'm not in the mood for you today hofoid, so if you start anything, I'm just going to mute you for 24 hours and be done with it. So go ahead, test me.

[Virginiá]

hofoid is hofoid, but there has been a tendency for people to over-indulge partisan turnout numbers despite the fact that we know large numbers of Republican-leaning suburbanites have drifted since Trump descended from his perch years ago. I really don't see how you can get these margins among white college graduate women without winning over registered Republicans (or at least those who used to be registered Republicans).

Also, the independent vote is crucial. Bare GOP pluralities do not matter if they themselves depended on comfortably winning the indie vote, only to lose it this time around, which is typical in waves.

[Virginiá]

Guys if you can, please try to avoid huge quote chains with the same tweets embedded over and over again. Especially today.

[Virginiá]

Not liking the FL #'s, think we are starting to see a state that is definitely leaning toward Rs in the near future.

 Until Latinos(besides Cubans) develop a culture of voting this will be the case. The white voting population in Florida replenishes itself with retirees and so even demographic shift to the electorate being younger and more non-white doesn't matter, if they don't vote and the old retirees vote like crazy.

 But Republicans also can't help themselves and I believe that if they win tonight they will makes changes to social safety net programs that will certainly cause a voter backlash even among older whites.

It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic and eventually the retirees moving here won't be as Republican-leaning either, although that change is probably decades away from happening.

All 3 of these trends converging at some point in the future will be a problem for the RPOF.

[Virginiá]

It's not just about growth among POC. Young people in FL are very Democratic

 But they have to vote, also they're not so Democratic that they bother to register as Democrats. Democrats are losing the branding of their party with young people. More of them are registering unaffiliated, NPA, or independent around the country. In Florida, Democrats registrations have been slowing as Dixiecrats make the switch to the GOP or die, and as young and Latino voters register NPA.

I believe having people actually join your party is a key part of making them reliable voters. Because they feel more invested and can help to mold the party with the values and candidates they want.

Right, but party loyalties tend to be sticky for young adults. If they are voting for one party numerous times and generally align with them ideologically, studies do tend to show that they stay that way for decades even. But even for Millennials, there will be some erosion since they are so incredibly Democratic. Wealthier Millennials may skew more Republican for instance, and they will live longer than poorer Millennials. But I'd bet the farm that Millennials will follow other generations and remain left-leaning even as they are retiring.

For now they don't vote, but Millennials are approaching middle age, and that is generally when people start voting more.

[Virginiá]

FTR this stickied thread was meant to serve as a general purpose election thread for the entire day (I've already merged other threads for the same reason).

Unless there is a mass outpouring of support for separate day/night threads, I'd rather keep everything together so the discussion isn't needlessly fragmented.

[Virginiá]

We will probably need a second and a third thread later, if AL-Sen is any guide. Thats if the forum doesn't crash OFC

True. I think Dave is waiting to see if any other mitigations other than what was done behind the scenes so far are actually necessary, so it's probable the site starts to lock up at least a few times.

[Virginiá]

test

[Virginiá]

What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective.

Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins.

Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level.

[Virginiá]

NC-09 still hasn't been called, 3% of the vote still to come in.

Oh ok, cool.

[Virginiá]

Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.

And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on.

[Virginiá]

Nah, the federal courts have zero desire to wade into that morass.

Maybe, but I have no faith in John Roberts, the man who constantly feigns anxiety about the court's reputation but then proceeds to gorge himself on partisan decisions that always seem to benefit the Republican Party immensely.

Also, apparently he was quite animated in his dissent to the AZ redistricting commission lawsuit, so I don't feel good about a rematch.

[Virginiá]

What happened to Strong Candidate Jeff Van Drew

[Virginiá]

Man he always sounds like a whiny little brat.   He must've been spoiled as a child or something.

Indeed. Costello also flipped out after the PASC redrew his district and literally called for their impeachment, calling the process "corrupt," completely ignoring how the entire reason Republicans (including himself) even had that many seats in PA for the past ~8 years was because of actual corruption (in the form of election rigging).

He can get bent as far as I am concerned.

[Virginiá]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Did Barbara Cegavske lose? NYT still has her up under 1pt with 99% in.

[Virginiá]

Yea that ballot is dumb but I still think people are dumber for missing the Senate/Rep section.

[Virginiá]

This thread is toxic for my mental health. How am I supposed to grieve with all of this hopey changey stuff

Maybe an amazing thing happens and Nelson and/or Gillum ends up winning, but I've learned to not invest much hope in recounts or post-election ballot counting (other than in CA)

[Virginiá]

Is there any chance that Democrats pick up the AZ SoS? If so, how likely?

[Virginiá]

35+ seats in the house
At least a 7% popular vote victory
Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map
7 governors mansions gained
This is a wave my friends

As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. 

Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats.  The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. 

I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term.

What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave?

I honestly don't see how this can be viewed as anything other than a wave. The only comparable midterm for Democrats since 1986 (or maybe 1990 too since the popular vote win was pretty large) is 2006, a wave. You simply do not make these kinds of gains in non-waves, nor do you experience such  a large swing in the House PV.

The Senate is irrelevant in this case. We held so many seats, with many in deeply Republican states, that it was arguably the most lopsided map since the beginning of direct elections for Senators. Holding all these seats was always going to be really hard, although admittedly I thought we'd do a little better myself. Imagine if we held every seat in this class heading into this cycle. We could have theoretically lost upwards of 8 or more seats just based on how ridiculously Republican some of them are, but still gained 70 seats in the House too in what you'd have to be mad to argue was not a wave, going by seat changes and popular vote support at every other level of govt.

The best place to look for a wave is the House, since every seat is up and you can measure the swing in popular vote much more accurately. And this result rarely happens for Democrats anymore. Beyond a certain point, the Senate is not an accurate way to measure this.

[Virginiá]

People all over the internet are putting WAY too much effort into determining whether or not it's a "wave".   Who cares?

I just can't help but want to interject. It's like I am looking at a car but yet can't understand why every once in a while someone comes by and says its a bicycle. It just seems like it's so obvious it should speak for itself.

[Virginiá]

American election laws are a joke.

It's made even worse when politicians who know exactly how the process works pretend like it's all very shocking and unfair, and whipping their supporters into a frenzy over brazen lies.

Part of me wishes that kind of behavior was treated similarly to people yelling FIRE in a crowded space.

[Virginiá]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country.

The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections.

It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections