Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

She certainly had the best chance of the three.  Sinema would have obliterated either of the others, but McSally came very close.

[lfromnj]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

yeah because Arpaaio would have won by energizing the base.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary.

0% chance Ward doesn't jump in.

[OneJ]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

TBF, she probably was the only one who could have made it close.

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

She certainly had the best chance of the three.  Sinema would have obliterated either of the others, but McSally came very close.

I agree. My statement was really referring to the ones who were 100% sure that McSaly would win.

[Gass3268]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

[Skill and Chance]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

[Gass3268]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

Not sure yet, Garrett Archer is posting an update here soon.

[Thatkat04]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left.

Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224

[Torrain]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary.

0% chance Ward doesn't jump in.

There are going to be a lot of Senate primaries in Arizona over the next few years. I
2020: AZ-Special (Kyl)
2022: AZ (Kyl)
2024: AZ (Sinema/McSally)

Regardless of who comes out on top, there’s the possibility for a lot of turnover in the congressional delegation and statewide offices.

[Gass3268]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left.

Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224

Pima isn't reporting again until Tuesday. Day off with the holiday tomorrow.

[Thatkat04]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

I think theres about 14,000 votes left in Pinal. But we havent had a single "bucket" from Pima today which has 36,000 votes left.

Edit: Scratch that, Pinal has 7,000 votes left.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061789579013812224

Pima isn't reporting again until Tuesday. Day off with the holiday tomorrow.

I knew that. Why did I forget? lawl.

I feel like we can call this once Maricopa dumps at 7, Pima should pad her lead before it a bit.

I dont think we're getting a Pima update tonight. I think they said their next update is tuesday.

[henster]

I'm surprised no media outlet is gonna jump on calling this, not even CNN?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061789108912209920

[Gass3268]

Not a ton from McSally territory left:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not a ton from McSally territory left:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet.

[libertpaulian]

Not a ton from McSally territory left:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet.

They probably want to be careful and wait for any potential conservative precincts of Maricopa that have yet to report.

[Xing]

Not a ton from McSally territory left:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet.

They're probably waiting until it's almost mathematically impossible for McSally to take the lead. While it's absurd to think that she'll win the remaining Maricopa vote by 25%, they'll probably wait until she'd need to win it by 60-80% before calling the race.

[IceSpear]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot.

Speaking of Gosar... anyone else love how he got savaged by that ad yet still way overperformed Martha Mcsally? There were a ton of Sinema-Gosar ads who saw that ad and were like "Yup! Still sticking w/ Gosar!"

[Virginiá]

Can we just take a second to briefly go over Steve Gaynor's campaign website issues page?

https://www.gaynorforsos.com/issues.aspx

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What exactly does it say about a candidate when most of the 'issues' they mention in their campaign are literally either just voter suppression measures or flat out rigging elections? Not to mention a Republican talking about "restoring confidence" in elections when they are the ones engaging in an endless assault on the integrity of our elections? They are the ones who scream voter fraud when they have no proof and no reason to believe it's happening. They are the ones screaming about "FINDING VOTES" right now when the state is simply trying to count ballots as it always does. This level of hypocrisy is on par with two-bit mobster protection rackets, where you should pay a fee less "something bad" might happen to your store.

There is a mile-wide gulf between calling for independent redistricting commissions and an end to partisan gerrymandering and what Gaynor is doing, which based on the AZGOP's view of redistricting, means dismantling their commission and returning power back to the legislature so they may gerrymander rig elections unfettered again.

It's one thing for Republicans to just avoid discussing gerrymandering and/or make up the occasional lie, as it's inconvenient to talk about it when your party relies on it so much, but a whole other thing to actively campaign on rigging elections. I feel like this is something out of the Jim Crow south.

[YE]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot.

AG Mark Brnovich?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1061783942192197632

[lfromnj]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot.

Yeah I was basically talking about weak the AZ senate bench for the GOP will be in 2020.  Losing SOS just shuts down Ducey from running for senate and Mcsally probably can't win a primary despite having the best image of any congress person from Arizona. They need someoen with some name recognition otherwise Ward goes for it and wins the primary. This is probably more likely to Flip than maine 2020 although it is a bit early.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott

https://twitter.com/KJ_Online/status/1061604457727827968

[lfromnj]

Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott

https://twitter.com/KJ_Online/status/1061604457727827968

Sad Polluiquin can't win a trump +10 most rural district in the country when most other republicans who lost were burb stomped.