Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dave Wasserman called it for Sinema

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061773342112247808

[henster]

The AP may take their time calling the Senate race now that they've screwed up the SOS race.

[Virginiá]

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor.

What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1061773342112247808?s=21

[Skill and Chance]

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor.

What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022?

Probably, although I think Ducey does not get along well at all with her and wouldn't do that.  Also, all but 1 of the Senate self-appointees have gone on to lose the seat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seeing as it took AP five days to finally project CA-48 for Rouda, they won't project this race for Sinema until Christmas Day.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor.

What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022?

Probably, although I think Ducey does not get along well at all with her and wouldn't do that.  Also, all but 1 of the Senate self-appointees have gone on to lose the seat.

I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath.

[Virginiá]

I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath.

That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too?

No, because Reagan is leaving office in January. Not that he’d do something as politically suicidal as this, but in this hypothetical scenario. The reason Hobbs winning is a big deal is because it robs the NRSC of their top 2020 Arizona Senate recruit and it puts her in an excellent position to become governor (the Arizona curse) either by ascension or election in her own right in 2022

Frankly even without that added bonus of denying them a good recruit, I'd still be overjoyed. It's a sign of progress in a state we need but also one that hasn't been too kind to us in the past. Not to mention finally being in a position to address their horrid track record on administering elections.

[Bidenworth2020]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

[Virginiá]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

[Nyvin]

Is Pinal county still posting today?    That'll most likely wipe out Hobbs' lead.

[pppolitics]

Is Pinal county still posting today?    That'll most likely wipe out Hobbs' lead.

Until Pima county drop and put her back in the lead

[Webnicz]

Gaynor would be such an awful SOS

[Ebsy]

Gaynor would be such an awful SOS

Good thing he lost then, huh.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath.

That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too?

No, because Reagan is leaving office in January. Not that he’d do something as politically suicidal as this, but in this hypothetical scenario. The reason Hobbs winning is a big deal is because it robs the NRSC of their top 2020 Arizona Senate recruit and it puts her in an excellent position to become governor (the Arizona curse) either by ascension or election in her own right in 2022

Frankly even without that added bonus of denying them a good recruit, I'd still be overjoyed. It's a sign of progress in a state we need but also one that hasn't been too kind to us in the past. Not to mention finally being in a position to address their horrid track record on administering elections.

It's now 31R/29D.  The Senate looks like it stayed 17R/13D, although the 17th R barely leads in an uncalled race in Maricopa.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath.

That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too?

State House Right now is 31 - 29 Rep, and thats mostly locked in place now. AZ House uses MMD, but you get two votes, so right now there is only one district with both a D and a R. It's mostly set because the closest Dems are in District 6 and 20 - down by 1.5 and 2K votes respectively. The closest Rep pickup is in district 28 where they are down by 1.9K, so the 31-29 gap looks solid right now.

Dems right now gained 0 in state Sen, but a lot more close races there still out. 6, 17, 20, 21, and 28 are all close.  Dems need +2 to tie the chamber. Right now, 28 is the closest with the dem down by 700 votes, and probably going to flip considering dems won both 28 House seats and its in Maricopa.

[Badger]

yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona.

I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closeness of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate.

[pppolitics]

yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona.

I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closest of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate.

It would be fun to beat her a second time.

An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of an elected incumbent.

[windjammer]

yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona.

I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closeness of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate.

Why would they appoint the republican statewide candidate with the worst performance?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This sounds close to a declaration of victory-

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1061778373288976384?s=21

[Virginiá]

thanks!

It would be fun to beat her a second time.

An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of a elected incumbent.

I think a big part of the advantage comes from a politician actually building out a strong campaign that is capable of winning (including fundraising networks and general expertise), and leaving a mark in the minds of the voters. This is something people appointed without ever running lack completely. In this case, McSally would have all those attributes as she ran a campaign that came close-ish to winning.

Also, it's not always a big issue in the end. Iowa Gov. is an example of that.

[Badger]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

[OneJ]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary.

[Gass3268]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

TBF, she probably was the only one who could have made it close.