Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Gass3268]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

[Ebsy]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?

Probably going to go to a recount after there was a tabulation error.

So it's okay when a Republican like Tenney does it, but Nelson doing the same thing in a state where this happens all too often is theft? That's Republican logic for you.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

[IceSpear]

Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people.

We're talking about American voters here. Don't be too hard on them.

[Xing]

Filling in a bubble isn't rocket science people.

We're talking about American voters here. Don't be too hard on them.

Yeah, and we need to grade Florida in particular on a curve.

[Nyvin]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

Good!   The Northern Cal house map will looks so much more aesthetic with CA-10 as a dem seat!

[Antonio the Sixth]

So first CA flip post-election night? Woot!

Hopefully Porter is next.

[IceSpear]

I'm just going to assume all the media outlets have been ordered by the Kremlin to not call this for Rouda. He's obviously won.

[Gass3268]

It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California.

[Nyvin]

It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California.

Yep,  Democrats can potentially win >70% of the seats in both the state senate and state house this year.   That's nuts.

[ON Progressive]

It's amazing how Republicans are slowly going extinct in California.

It's a beautiful sight. Now, if only the rest of the country could follow suit.

[Brittain33]

Mimi Walters is only up by 2,020 votes at the moment. 103,975-101,955.

[libertpaulian]

Mimi Walters is only up by 2,020 votes at the moment. 103,975-101,955.

She won 59-41 two years ago.  That's a crazy turnaround in two years.

[lfromnj]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

[IceSpear]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk.

[Skill and Chance]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

Good!   The Northern Cal house map will looks so much more aesthetic with CA-10 as a dem seat!

Well, that was fast.  Apparently his base was disproportionately out and just updated?

[lfromnj]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk.

I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters.  Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/

The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return.

[libertpaulian]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk.

I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters.  Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/

The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return.

Regarding TX-23, I'd honestly ask for a recount if I were Oritz-Jones.  The gap is way too narrow to take a chance at just conceding.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else

Because they know they're going to lose.

[Snipee356]

I don't even understand what straws the Reps are grasping at. What are the 'improper practices' going on in AZ? Counting votes?

[Gass3268]

Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else

There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive.

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1061070671466381312

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else

There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive.

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1061070671466381312

The AZ GOP got curbstomped. It's not healthy for them to go full bat-sh**t insane in a state that is trending away from them.

[lfromnj]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk.

I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters.  Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/

The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return.

Regarding TX-23, I'd honestly ask for a recount if I were Oritz-Jones.  The gap is way too narrow to take a chance at just conceding.

Id say its likely Hurd survives but a recount here is fine and might work especially in a district with both large rural and suburban areas. Anyway Illegal border crosser polling and racist white hick polling sucked this year.

[Virginiá]

No they didn’t. They won Gov by 16%, held the legislature and narrowly lost two statewide races (maybe a third with SOS). Losing a Senate seat is certainly not good, but it was not a curb-stomping

^ I would listen to this gentleman. He's the entire reason we even say curb/burb-stomping