Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060540221077549056

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060555674457907200

Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach.

I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close.

Really wishful thinking, Duval &PB dumped last night meaning that there are about 15-20k left in Broward and at most 10k provisionals statewide, Fried could easily win but Nelson doesn't have the numbers

Maybe not, but it will likely get under the threshold for a hand recount, which would be interesting.

Unless you can miraculously get Scott's  margin below 1.5-2k a recount won't change anything. The largest change in votes from a recount was about 1k almost 20 years ago. This is the trap many Democrats fell into when they gave Jill Stein millions for the presidential recounts

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060540221077549056

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060555674457907200

Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach.

I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close.

Really wishful thinking, Duval &PB dumped last night meaning that there are about 15-20k left in Broward and at most 10k provisionals statewide, Fried could easily win but Nelson doesn't have the numbers

Maybe not, but it will likely get under the threshold for a hand recount, which would be interesting.

Unless you can miraculously get Scott's  margin below 1.5-2k a recount won't change anything. The largest change in votes from a recount was about 1k almost 20 years ago. This is the trap many Democrats fell into when they gave Jill Stein millions for the presidential recounts

I don't disagree with you, but as a political junkie I love it regardless of the outcome.

[alomas]

Shame there are no key race alerts by Wolf Blitzer. It would have been very interesting!

[Thatkat04]

Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative.

It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Yeah, 1500-2000 votes is about the ceiling that Nelson could plausibly hope to make up in an actual recount.  Al Franken made up 500-600 votes in the MN recount in 2008, in a state 3-4x smaller.

[Sestak]

The House keeps looking better and better for Dems. We could possibly reach 234.

I see 229-230. Where do you see those 4 extra

They won 224 and lead in 6. Of the seats they are currently behind in, they should win ME-02 and CA-10, and have a chance in CA-39, CA-45, and GA-07.

[RI]

Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative.

It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward.

The reason for the undervoting likely is that the Governor's race was at the top of the ballot while the Senate race was tucked in the lower left corner in Broward County.

[Thatkat04]

Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Pandaguineapig]

Unless there is a huge error in the estimates of how much vote is left, Scott has won

[Gass3268]

Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not exactly sounding confident.

[Tintrlvr]

Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative.

It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward.

The reason for the undervoting likely is that the Governor's race was at the top of the ballot while the Senate race was tucked in the lower left corner in Broward County.

It would be interesting to see if there was undervoting in the House races, which were in the same part of the ballot as the Senate race. Otherwise, it might be a scanning error.

If so, incompetent from Brenda Snipes strikes again. The FLDP really needs to get rid of her.

[Dr. Arch]

Also, Rick Scott's campaign sounds nervous:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A FL Republican talking about framing a full count as "stealing" is peak irony.

[RI]

Also:

[ajc0918]

My friend in the Nelson camp just said "the numbers are looking better and better for us" but that it'll be really close. Scott camp is nervous because they see the numbers tightening too.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Also:

Huh interesting map.  Why so many in that portion of the countyl?

[Sestak]

Also:

There’s got to be an error there, right?

No way one district is way worse than everything else exactly on its borders.

[RI]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

[Virginiá]

Yea that ballot is dumb but I still think people are dumber for missing the Senate/Rep section.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

Is that Haitian?

I had heard about the "problem" with the Senate race being on the bottom left.  But if anyone missed that, it seems like the voter's fault.  That can't be the only thing going on if the undervotes are so clustered in one CD.

[Tintrlvr]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24.

[RI]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24.

I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24.

I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online.

Ah, the cover-up us always worse than the crime!!

[Thatkat04]

Brenda Snipes, the election commissioner for Broward, says she doesn't know how many ballots are left to count. The website says 20,000 but it wouldn't surprise me if there were more than that.

[Tintrlvr]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24.

I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online.

Right, but the implication is that the problem is with placement of the races. However, the issues are confined to FL-24, so if the ballot design in FL-20 is the same as in FL-24, it can't be the ballot design that was the issue.

If the ballot design is different, we'd need to see what the FL-24 ballots looked like, including ideally examples of actual ballots that undervoted to see if it really was voter error (unfortunate but it happens) or a problem with the ballots themselves (e.g., some of them actually didn't include the Senate race, which would invalidate the entire election) or with the counting of the ballots (which would presumably be fixed in a recount).

[Gass3268]

About 10,000 votes left in Palm Beach County:

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/1060573313062367233