Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

I think so. It seems like Walters is the only vulnerable CA Republican who is more likely than not to win, but even she might barely lose when all of the votes are counted.

[Doimper]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

[Sestak]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

For beating Denham they should be.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

both of these races are within 2,000 votes

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

I know that but the above poster seemed to imply that something changed in the last few hours.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it now close to certain Jeff Denham and Young Kim have lost?

Why do you say that?

Absentees in California break heavily Democratic, but I'm not sure they'll be enough.

both of these races are within 2,000 votes

AP says Kim is ahead by almost 4,000.

[Sestak]

It will be 232-235 seats.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip.

They stopped updating their forecast at 2 p.m. yesterday.

[ajc0918]

Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.

https://twitter.com/talanez/status/1060632738112458754

[Bidenworth2020]

Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.

https://twitter.com/talanez/status/1060632738112458754

oof, that doesnt look like enough

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.

https://twitter.com/talanez/status/1060632738112458754

oof, that doesnt look like enough

Eh the margin is going to come from there. It's going to come from Broward.

[ajc0918]

Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.

https://twitter.com/talanez/status/1060632738112458754

oof, that doesnt look like enough

This is in addition to Broward which potentially has 25k votes left to count plus the prospect of a 30k under vote issue (if it is actually a tabulation issue)

[Florida Man for Crime]

I'm not sure if NYT is actively updating their forecast, but 229 seats for the Democrats seems way too conservative at this point. They currently have 225 secured, and NJ-03, CA-25, UT-04, NY-22, and CA-48 are quite likely to flip (NYT has all of the Democrats leading but none declared the victors). That's already 230, and that's not to mention the strong possibility that some combination of CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, and/or even GA-07 or TX-27 flip.

They stopped updating their forecast at 2 p.m. yesterday.

The best up to date vote count is probably this from Cook Political Report:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WxDaxD5az6kdOjJncmGph37z0BPNhV1fNAH_g7IkpC0/edit#gid=0

[Sestak]

I’m not too optimistic. Even though there were 25k more votes in the Gubernatorial race than the Senate race in Broward, it looks like Gillum did a whole point worse in broward than Nelson did. I don’t know why. Hopefully there’s not an error in favor of Nelson or anything that explains that.

A point discrepancy between candidates is normal, no?

[YE]

Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters?

[BigSerg]

I think it was said that Nelson needs 60% in Palm Beach and 70% in Broward to have an opportunity

Is someone serious thinking about a mistake in the counting?

In theory, Republicans could try to bring this to the Supreme Court if they see it in danger, right?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think it was said that Nelson needs 60% in Palm Beach and 70% in Broward to have an opportunity

Is someone serious thinking about a mistake in the counting?

In theory, Republicans could try to bring this to the Supreme Court if they see it in danger, right?

Bush v. Gore 2.0

[wesmoorenerd]

Latest PredictIt prices in too close to call House races:

California 10 (Harder-Denham) 84-24 or 59-41
California 25 (Hill-Knight) 97-3
California 39 (Cisneros-Kim) 38-55
California 45 (Porter-Walters) 39-62 or 40-60
California 48 (Rouda-Rohrabacher) 98-1
Georgia 07 (Bourdeaux-Woodall) 30-93
Maine 02 (Golden-Poliquin) 80-21
New Jersey 03 (Kim-MacArthur) 98-2
New York 22 (Brindisi-Tenney) 98-2
New York 27 (McMurray-Collins) 8-92
North Carolina 09 (McCready-Harris) 2-99
Texas 23 (Ortiz Jones-Hurd) 2-98
Utah 04 (McAdams-Love) 70-30

The divergent odds in the two CA districts is because, for some reason, PI has two markets for those two races (one for the district and one for the incumbent).

[Tintrlvr]

Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters?

The part of the county with the undervote is the area in FL-24 (and exactly coterminous with FL-24). It's one of the most Democratic patches of Broward County and heavily black, routinely in the 80s or even 90s for the Democrats. Not 100% Nelson but probably close it.

[ajc0918]

Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters?

No but the under vote in Broward was so extreme in comparison to the rest of the state that more people votes in cabinet races than for U.S. Senate. There is confusion on why that is since Senate was a marquee race. Nelson would benefit from these voters.

Broward SOE was using new machines so there is thought that there could be some sort of error since the under vote in Broward was huge compared to the rest of the state. Nelson's lawyers don't believe it is due to ballot design.

[Dereich]

Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters?

No but the under vote in Broward was so extreme in comparison to the rest of the state that more people votes in cabinet races than for U.S. Senate. There is confusion on why that is since Senate was a marquee race. Nelson would benefit from these voters.

Broward SOE was using new machines so there is thought that there could be some sort of error since the under vote in Broward was huge compared to the rest of the state. Nelson's lawyers don't believe it is due to ballot design.

Even if they did believe that it was due to ballot design, they wouldn't say it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1060642052646625281

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ok yeah, something strange definitely happened in Florida. Hopefully the DNC is sending every lawyer they have on speed dial down there.