Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Pandaguineapig]

Pretty high turnout in Monroe County Indiana where I voted, it looks like turnout is way up across the entire state

[Pandaguineapig]

I think the one prediction we can all make in confidence is that this election will set modern records for mid-term turnout

[Pandaguineapig]

This looks pretty bad for Republicans but remember that the early exits are wrong pretty much every single time and will be adjusted as the night goes on

[Pandaguineapig]

Yeah individual state approvals for Trump are pretty screwy. Like I've said, initial exit polls have pretty much never been right yet we still allow them to shape our view of the election going in

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump approval higher in FL than MO? oh

Yeah maybe taking initial exit polls as gospel might be a bad idea

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like Nelson's requested recount has to be completed by Saturday at noon, barring a historic tabulation error there is no way a recount nets Nelson 34,000 votes. Scott has this

[Pandaguineapig]

It looks like the count may narrow but the votes really aren't there for Nelson to win, the Arizona vote dump will setermine whether Republicans get 53 or 54 seats

[Pandaguineapig]

At this point I'm calling it a 53/47 senate. The numbers aren't there for Scott to lose and Hyde-Smith isn't losing barring revelations of her being a female Roy Moore. The only race that is still in question is Arizona and I don't think Mcsally survives the late deluge of votes

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060540221077549056

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060555674457907200

Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach.

I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close.

Really wishful thinking, Duval &PB dumped last night meaning that there are about 15-20k left in Broward and at most 10k provisionals statewide, Fried could easily win but Nelson doesn't have the numbers

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060540221077549056

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1060555674457907200

Democrats are also making a massive push to get people to check that their VBM were accurately counted. Plus I think there are votes left in Duval and Palm Beach.

I think the Ag Com race flips and the Senate race is going to get really close.

Really wishful thinking, Duval &PB dumped last night meaning that there are about 15-20k left in Broward and at most 10k provisionals statewide, Fried could easily win but Nelson doesn't have the numbers

Maybe not, but it will likely get under the threshold for a hand recount, which would be interesting.

Unless you can miraculously get Scott's  margin below 1.5-2k a recount won't change anything. The largest change in votes from a recount was about 1k almost 20 years ago. This is the trap many Democrats fell into when they gave Jill Stein millions for the presidential recounts

[Pandaguineapig]

Unless there is a huge error in the estimates of how much vote is left, Scott has won

[Pandaguineapig]

The AZ and FL GOPs sound... nervous.

Arizona GOP might have a reason to be

Florida on the other hand... I don’t get it

They went from being 100% sure that Scott had it to... at the very least, less than 100%, even if it's 98-99%. Even if Nelson needs a miracle to win, the fact that it's gone from being over to not quite being over definitely warrants Republicans at least being nervous. They seem much more nervous in Arizona, though, which makes sense.

I think they really want to avoid a hand recount in Florida, because anything can happen at that point.

Not really, there is a limit to how many votes can be picked up in a recount, the record was 1200 and that was almost 20 years ago

[Pandaguineapig]

Nelson might actually win this ...

Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet.

Those are tiny and will have a small spread, the only big thing out right now is Broward mail vote, Fried has almost certainly won, but it really doesn't look like Nelson has enough outstanding votes

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

I love FL.

Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

I love FL.

Oh cool anecdote with no evidence. Let's run with it

I wouldn't consider Marc Caputo anecdotal....but sure whatever.

Yeah a box that doesn't look like it has votes in it and probably doesn't have votes in it (the odds that a single precinct has a box full of provisional ballots is highly unlikely)

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like there is only about 4k votes left in Broward and provisionals look to be a wash so far. Democrats need to hope for the biggest voting machine failure in history to come back in this race

Not to be rude, but you keep coming in here and telling us how hopeless AZ and Fl are.

I've said consistently that the Republicans were probably going to lose Arizona, check my post history

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1060703585552474113

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1060705247700623360

If that's true, good news for Scott

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1060703585552474113

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1060705247700623360

If that's true, good news for Scott

I seriously have no idea where you are getting this. All they said was that they finished counting the ballots and were reviewing them, which was expected.

That means other than about 250 provisionals and overseas ballots Broward is done

[Pandaguineapig]

I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president

[Pandaguineapig]

I do think that there needs to be federal standards for voting and vote counting. These slow-count states are becoming more of a joke and are providing ample breeding ground for conspiracies. The fact that it takes the idiots in California well over a month to count all of their votes is why we can't have a national popular vote for president

CA and WA are all-mail states. Some of those ballots are coming from a ways away (mine included). I don't want races certified before they can count my ballot.

Then just allow absentee voting for those who are away and make election day a national holiday for everyone else. It's probably a good thing those states are non competitive because if a recount happened in California it would probably take nearly a year before those idiots could finalize results