🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's been a wild ride, considering that they were the party of Nazi sympathizers in the early days of the republic.

Bit more complicated than that, in fairness. They were an odd mixture of genuine liberals associated especially (though not exclusively) with the former DDP and Protestant right-wingers many of whom had views on the whole 1933-45 period that were a little dodgy. The bulk of the latter decamped, bit by bit, to the CDU in the 50s.* But this reminds me... one of these days I really should do some proper maps of the '49 election.

_{*Of course there was then the very strange business, decades later, of an attempt by similar people to take over the party again. People say that German politics is boring, but any country in which a scandal-plagued former Deputy PM kills himself by jumping out of an aeroplane without a parachute does not have boring politics.}

[Astatine]

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

Wouldn't be the greatest outcome tho

[buritobr]

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

Wouldn't be the greatest outcome tho

There was never a great coalition in Germany led by the social democrats. It happened only in Austria.
Would the CDU/CSU be willing to become junior?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

It's been a wild ride, considering that they were the party of Nazi sympathizers in the early days of the republic.

Bit more complicated than that, in fairness. They were an odd mixture of genuine liberals associated especially (though not exclusively) with the former DDP and Protestant right-wingers many of whom had views on the whole 1933-45 period that were a little dodgy. The bulk of the latter decamped, bit by bit, to the CDU in the 50s.* But this reminds me... one of these days I really should do some proper maps of the '49 election.

_{*Of course there was then the very strange business, decades later, of an attempt by similar people to take over the party again. People say that German politics is boring, but any country in which a scandal-plagued former Deputy PM kills himself by jumping out of an aeroplane without a parachute does not have boring politics.}

Indeed, we should nonetheless not disregard that the FDP was in its early days the only major party (and with major, I mean with a relatively stable voter base and some long-term relevance) to openly oppose denazification, which of course attracted many Nazi sympethizers-- but still, we should not act as if there were no Nazi sympethizers in other parties (The CDU elected one as chancellor in the 1960s).

[President Johnson]

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

Wouldn't be the greatest outcome tho

There was never a great coalition in Germany led by the social democrats. It happened only in Austria.
Would the CDU/CSU be willing to become junior?

I have a hard time seeing this. Söder repeatedly said he considers a second place as de facto removal from power, both when the Greens were leading and recently again. However, I wouldn't totally rule it out since parties might avoid calling for a new election that may not even change much.

Certainly hilarious would be Lindner once again pulling off talks, this time for a trafficlight coalition, and CDU/CSU subsequently finding themselves in the same uncomfortable position as the SPD in 2017 (assuming current polls prove right). Scholz may appeal to their responsibility for a stable government ("staatspolitische Verantwortung") and the Union finally agreeing. In this scenario, however, I have a hard time seeing Laschet calling the shots. He'd probably have to resign with a second place finish, let alone a gap of three or more points. Söder himself would be damaged, too, if the CSU ends up at 30% or less in Bavaria. The CSU would certainly make Laschet their single scapegoat for the debacle. The entire CDU might do so, ignoring the fact their weakness has more reasons than Laschet himself.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

If that keeps up, looks like the Finance Minstery raid didn't have an impact. Maybe the opposite is about to happen, as the press increasingly reports critical of the handling and time. The responsible Osnabrück attorney is a CDU member and search warrant was already issues on August 10. So why would you wait a whole month for the raid? Usually a raid is conducted when evidence is about to disappear. Furthermore, the attorney's press statement and court issued search warrant don't exactly match each other. SPD politicians increasingly believe everything isn't a co-incidence and may be a hit job against Scholz (who's not even under investigation himself).

This reading of the story has resulted in the hashtag #CDUgate trending on Twitter for two days now. Now, Twitter is not Germany, but journalists are pretty active on the platform, and slowly, the story starts to break through.
The tagesschau has reported on these rumors yesterday online. Today, it is the big cover story of SPIEGEL online - unfortunately paywalled. I've also seen Ann-Kathrin Büüsker liking posts referencing the hashtag #CDUgate - she is a higher-ranking journalist at Deutschlandfunk, a very respected news institution in Germany.

[President Johnson]

If that keeps up, looks like the Finance Minstery raid didn't have an impact. Maybe the opposite is about to happen, as the press increasingly reports critical of the handling and time. The responsible Osnabrück attorney is a CDU member and search warrant was already issues on August 10. So why would you wait a whole month for the raid? Usually a raid is conducted when evidence is about to disappear. Furthermore, the attorney's press statement and court issued search warrant don't exactly match each other. SPD politicians increasingly believe everything isn't a co-incidence and may be a hit job against Scholz (who's not even under investigation himself).

This reading of the story has resulted in the hashtag #CDUgate trending on Twitter for two days now. Now, Twitter is not Germany, but journalists are pretty active on the platform, and slowly, the story starts to break through.
The tagesschau has reported on these rumors yesterday online. Today, it is the big cover story of SPIEGEL online - unfortunately paywalled. I've also seen Ann-Kathrin Büüsker liking posts referencing the hashtag #CDUgate - she is a higher-ranking journalist at Deutschlandfunk, a very respected news institution in Germany.

So you think there will be last minute movement against the CDU? Polls have been pretty stable over recent days or Laschet made very slight gains in chancellor preference. Still trailing by double digits though.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

If that keeps up, looks like the Finance Minstery raid didn't have an impact. Maybe the opposite is about to happen, as the press increasingly reports critical of the handling and time. The responsible Osnabrück attorney is a CDU member and search warrant was already issues on August 10. So why would you wait a whole month for the raid? Usually a raid is conducted when evidence is about to disappear. Furthermore, the attorney's press statement and court issued search warrant don't exactly match each other. SPD politicians increasingly believe everything isn't a co-incidence and may be a hit job against Scholz (who's not even under investigation himself).

This reading of the story has resulted in the hashtag #CDUgate trending on Twitter for two days now. Now, Twitter is not Germany, but journalists are pretty active on the platform, and slowly, the story starts to break through.
The tagesschau has reported on these rumors yesterday online. Today, it is the big cover story of SPIEGEL online - unfortunately paywalled. I've also seen Ann-Kathrin Büüsker liking posts referencing the hashtag #CDUgate - she is a higher-ranking journalist at Deutschlandfunk, a very respected news institution in Germany.

So you think there will be last minute movement against the CDU? Polls have been pretty stable over recent days or Laschet made very slight gains in chancellor preference. Still trailing by double digits though.

Not necessarily, but it has the potential to prevent skeptical traditional CDU voters to hold their noses and vote for the CDU - assuming, the story gains more traction. If the polls don't move, Laschet will not become chancellor. But the CDU's voter base is strong. If there are 3% late deciders who will swing to the CDU, it could tie with the SPD at around 25%, or even take a slim lead. The result could be a chancellor called Armin Laschet.

[Astatine]

My current district map with Lean/Likely/Safe ratings, resulting in 127 seats for CDU/CSU, 140 for SPD, 17 for AfD, 10 for the Greens and 5 for Linke.
Was really not sure about some as I don't know anything about them, but just guessed a bit?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed, we should nonetheless not disregard that the FDP was in its early days the only major party (and with major, I mean with a relatively stable voter base and some long-term relevance) to openly oppose denazification, which of course attracted many Nazi sympethizers-- but still, we should not act as if there were no Nazi sympethizers in other parties (The CDU elected one as chancellor in the 1960s).

Well that was the curious thing: on the one hand opposition to the denazification programme was clearly the 'correct' principled liberal stance, and on the other it made the party an appealing option to people at the softer end of the dodgy views on the previous... era... spectrum. And many of the later - well, some of the older ones at least - had even voted for at least the DVP once upon a time. Had that particular coalition held then I suspect they might have developed into a German version of the VVD or Venstre* rather than the actually much more typical liberal party they became.

_{*Or... er... well... looks nervously to the south.}

[DL]

Wasn't the FDP historically seen as the "sister party" to the FPO in Austria? The FPO has always been the repository of ex-Nazis

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wasn't the FDP historically seen as the "sister party" to the FPO in Austria? The FPO has always been the repository of ex-Nazis

Until the 1980s the FPÖ was an odd mixture of liberals, 'reformed' former Nazis, and assorted other small groupings of cranks. It basically functioned as an umbrella organisation that gave people not associated with the two big monopoly parties (as they were at the time) a small degree of access to the political system and the social benefits that were directly tied to it at the time. It polled about 5% of the vote in election after election. An attempt to turn it into a normal liberal party aligned with the SPÖ backfired catastrophically, resulting in Haider (who had been the leader of the party's youth wing) taking it over and turning into the far right monster that we know and do not love.

[President Johnson]

Another strong poll for the SPD:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438865718842384387

Earlier today I was at the market square doing some campaigning with our former local chairman, a SPD veteran for decades, and even convinced at least two former CDU voters to switch over. I just couldn't convince a former SPD and now Linke member after expressing support for the Transatlantic alliance and that I consider Joe Biden a friend of Germany. Lmao.

[brucejoel99]

With those numbers, Germany's just one bit of momentum away from being in SPD/Green territory, sans an FDP-need.

[buritobr]

In early 2021, when the SPD decided that Olaf Scholz would be the Spitzenkandidat, I though it would be another disaster like Steinmeier 2009. I though that people who approve Merkel's administration would vote for the CDU and people who disapprove Merkel's administration would vote someone who was not member of the administration. So, I though that the best choice for the SPD would be someone who was not member of Merkel's administration.

I was wrong. Didn't inderstand very well German politics. Maybe, there are many people who slightly approve Merkel's administration, but want some changes. It would be nice to see a poll relating the partisan vote to the rating of Merkel's administration.

[President Johnson]

In early 2021, when the SPD decided that Olaf Scholz would be the Spitzenkandidat, I though it would be another disaster like Steinmeier 2009. I though that people who approve Merkel's administration would vote for the CDU and people who disapprove Merkel's administration would vote someone who was not member of the administration. So, I though that the best choice for the SPD would be someone who was not member of Merkel's administration.

I was wrong. Didn't inderstand very well German politics. Maybe, there are many people who slightly approve Merkel's administration, but want some changes. It would be nice to see a poll relating the partisan vote to the rating of Merkel's administration.

It was August 10, 2020 already when he was presented as chancellor candidate. The party was around 14% in the polls and the nomination largely commented as a joke. Scholz insisted a result well in the 20s would be possible and was laughed off. Even I didn't believe him. Back in spring, the Union didn't take him serious either, still at 15% in surveys. Söder famously said the Greens were the main opponents.

If anything, that shows that the electorate has become a lot more volatile and that polls outside election season aren't worth a whole lot of stock. If the SPD wins, it may be the greatest comeback in German election history similar to Harry Truman's reelection in 1948.

[buritobr]

According to the average of the recent polls, 6 coalitions are possible now
Kenia ~68%
Germany ~63%
Traffic Lights ~58%
Jamaica ~53%
2Red-Green ~52%
Grand Coalition ~51%

Which coalition do you think will run Germany between 2021 and 2025? (not which coalition do you want)
If you bet some money, for which one would you bet?

[RGM2609]

If the result is the same as the polls and -

1. FDP refuses to join the SPD
2. CDU refuses to join the SPD

Would the Greens rather join Jamaica or RRG?

[Astatine]

If the result is the same as the polls and -

1. FDP refuses to join the SPD
2. CDU refuses to join the SPD

Would the Greens rather join Jamaica or RRG?

Greens and FDP are in the wonderful position of angering parts of their base no matter for which coalition they'd opt.

Under the current circumstances, R2G seems somewhat more likely to me, for the following reasons:

- There are simply more programmatic similarities with SPD and Greens than with CDU, CSU and FDP. Moreover, it would be easier to negotiate a coalition deal, since CDU and CSU are still separate parties, although this might just be a minor factor.
- It would be very hard to justify electing one of the least popular politicians in Germany to the post of the Chancellor when his party suffers the worst defeat in the party's history.
- Depending on the result, Jamaica would have a narrow majority, and considering the circumstances, there is a higher chance of defections among the MPs of all participating parties in the secret vote for Chancellor.
- There have been some calls of major CDU/CSU politicians to go into opposition in case they become second largest party. Alexander Dobrindt (former CSU General Secretary, current chairman of the CSU within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group) for instance just stated today that the largest party should have first access to lead the country.
- Linke is a much weaker partner than FDP would be, which would allow the Greens to demand more concessions (on foreign policy for instance) where needed.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the number of people strongly opposing R2G is very high according to some polls, while Jamaica is not as hated as the left option.

[DL]

How would Green voters and members react if the Green Party ignored the SPD clearly winning the National popular vote and clearly having by far the most popular leader, and instead made a shady deal with the CDU and FDP. That led to a rightwing government led by Laschet?

[Yeahsayyeah]

How would Green voters and members react if the Green Party ignored the SPD clearly winning the National popular vote and clearly having by far the most popular leader, and instead made a shady deal with the CDU and FDP. That led to a rightwing government led by Laschet?

Speaking on my behalf, I don't think Green members and voters care too much about Scholz as a person, but most would clearly prefer an SPD-led government over a Union-led one, based on ideological and issue-based common ground, which is certainly bigger, there.

So the concessions to make Jamaica palatable in this situation would have to be huge (and from an FDP standpoint maybe even bigger than with a traffic light coalition.

[Astatine]

How would Green voters and members react if the Green Party ignored the SPD clearly winning the National popular vote and clearly having by far the most popular leader, and instead made a shady deal with the CDU and FDP. That led to a rightwing government led by Laschet?

Well, there is no rule that the Chancellor's party has to be the strongest force in Bundestag, as Helmut Kohl had to experience in 1976 when SPD/FDP formed a coalition against CDU/CSU although the latter were close to an absolute majority, and unless SPD is ahead by high single digits, I wouldn't exactly speak of a "clear popular vote win". But it would still be bad optics nevertheless.

Especially the Green Youth would be against such a coalition, and it is still up for debate whether a potential Jamaica deal would even pass a membership vote. At least in 2017, both FDP and Greens planned to let their members vote on the final agreement if the Jamaica negotiations had succeeded.
Assuming that the deal passes a membership vote, that would mean that lots of concessions were made by the other parties, especially CDU/CSU. Such a deal would likely include lots of plans on climate action.

But the Greens would still anger lots of their base, and if they receive - let's say - 15 % in the general elections, I could see their polling numbers quickly dropping to ~10 %. On the other hand, a potential R2G coalition could result in some of the more "moderate" supporters that swung from Merkel's CDU to the Greens pulling away from the Greens. A traffic light coalition would be the best option for the Greens to stabilize their support, I think.

It's the opposite for the FDP. The base would probably swallow a Jamaica deal (although the base is far more reluctant to ally with the Greens), but would be more hesitant about a traffic light coalition, especially since a large proportion of FDP voters are dissatisfied CDU voters.

As of now, I am relatively confident that either party will have some troubles or crises going out of the coalition negotiations. But as we have seen in the recent weeks, surprises are always possible.

[Hnv1]

Are the FDP really going for a Jamaica over icing CDU in opposition, or is it a negotiation trick anticipating the traffic light coalition?

[CumbrianLefty]

Are the FDP really going for a Jamaica over icing CDU in opposition, or is it a negotiation trick anticipating the traffic light coalition?

FDP almost certainly still prefer a coalition with the Union than SPD, all things being equal.

But pragmatically, they may be pushed in the other direction nonetheless.

[crals]

Would a confidence and supply agreement with die Linke be more palatable than R2G? Or is that option completely unrealistic given Germany's fear of minority governments?