🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[njwes]

And did you mean the CDU in the comment about the gas pipeline?*

And for the russophilia, well, there had been strong connections between East Germany and Russia for forty-five years, of course this has an influence on how people here view Russia or think, they understand Russia. In fact, for the middle-aged and older generations, here, the US are much more alien and "un-European" than Russia. So, it doesn't strike me as odd, that parties who would have a huge chunk of their voter base in the East reflect this a bit. What strikes me as odd, is that the west German right-wing-conservatives who for two generations feared "the Russian in front of their door" are reviving the old German conservative russophilia of the Kaiserreich, too.

Isn't an obvious reason, perhaps, that a Marxist-Leninist USSR with huge number of soldiers in East Germany is objectively and qualitatively different than a fairly non-ideological, hybrid-regime-ruled Russia whose closest armed forces are now over in Kaliningrad?

I mean, 30 years is plenty of time to adjust to the changed realities--though, admittedly, many people even now like to act like it's still the Cold War (see: the D.C. foreign policy/military blob, etc). But maybe Germans are just more clear on this point

[Hnv1]

Don't think we noted the latest Trend poll of Hamburg, btw:

SPD 34 (+10 from 2017 / +6 from last poll)
Green 17 (+3 / -2)
CDU 15 (-12 / -2)
FDP 13 (+2 / -1)
SED 10 (-2 / +1)
AfD 7 (-1 / =)
Others 5 (= / -1)

Scholzistan. I wonder if the SPD can keep squeezing the other parties enough to start flirting with 2005 levels in the city.

I wonder who will vote more red, Hamburg or Bremen

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Congrats, Laschet.


https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-olaf-scholz-pressured-over-money-laundering-probe/a-59147944

As of now, I am still skeptical that this incident will derail Scholz' campaign, but I could see the unstoppable surge coming to an end and SPD stabilizing at ~25 % unless some more scandals break out.

There was a small story on this two days ago, and a medium-sized story yesterday. Both somehow disappeared quickly. This comes probably at the exact right time for Scholz, as He has the opportunity to say something smart about this at tomorrow's debate.

[President Johnson]

Scholz shouldn't have said "the questions could also have been submitted in text form", but I think voters will see through the Union's cheap maneuver to take advantage of the raid. Most importantly, it wasn't even directed at Scholz himself or anyone from within his circle, just a unit of the customs authority. Furthermore, Laschet himself is under fire for the Hambach Forest police eviction declared unlawful by a federal court.

On Sunday, there's the next TV debate and Genosse Olaf is very routine with this format.

Btw, the CSU has its party convention this weekend and Söder was reelected as leader with 87% of the vote, less than the last time.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Scholz shouldn't have said "the questions could also have been submitted in text form", but I think voters will see through the Union's cheap maneuver to take advantage of the raid. Most importantly, it wasn't even directed at Scholz himself or anyone from within his circle, just a unit of the customs authority. Furthermore, Laschet himself is under fire for the Hambach Forest police eviction declared unlawful by a federal court.

On Sunday, there's the next TV debate and Genosse Olaf is very routine with this format.

Btw, the CSU has its party convention this weekend and Söder was reelected as leader with 87% of the vote, less than the last time.

The SPIEGEL headline explicitly directed the allegation at Scholz himself. Whether it's true or not, these are bad optics for Scholz. Good for him that the issue has already faded somewhat.

[President Johnson]

Scholz shouldn't have said "the questions could also have been submitted in text form", but I think voters will see through the Union's cheap maneuver to take advantage of the raid. Most importantly, it wasn't even directed at Scholz himself or anyone from within his circle, just a unit of the customs authority. Furthermore, Laschet himself is under fire for the Hambach Forest police eviction declared unlawful by a federal court.

On Sunday, there's the next TV debate and Genosse Olaf is very routine with this format.

Btw, the CSU has its party convention this weekend and Söder was reelected as leader with 87% of the vote, less than the last time.

The SPIEGEL headline explicitly directed the allegation at Scholz himself. Whether it's true or not, these are bad optics for Scholz. Good for him that the issue has already faded somewhat.

SPIEGEL has increasingly become a disappointment with coverage of the election. Just recently they also tried to put up the Warburg Bank issue again with the famous green marker that was already debunked for many weeks at the time. No other major newspaper picked it up, not even conservative leaning WELT.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Scholz shouldn't have said "the questions could also have been submitted in text form", but I think voters will see through the Union's cheap maneuver to take advantage of the raid. Most importantly, it wasn't even directed at Scholz himself or anyone from within his circle, just a unit of the customs authority. Furthermore, Laschet himself is under fire for the Hambach Forest police eviction declared unlawful by a federal court.

On Sunday, there's the next TV debate and Genosse Olaf is very routine with this format.

Btw, the CSU has its party convention this weekend and Söder was reelected as leader with 87% of the vote, less than the last time.

The SPIEGEL headline explicitly directed the allegation at Scholz himself. Whether it's true or not, these are bad optics for Scholz. Good for him that the issue has already faded somewhat.

SPIEGEL has increasingly become a disappointment with coverage of the election. Just recently they also tried to put up the Warburg Bank issue again with the famous green marker that was already debunked for many weeks at the time. No other major newspaper picked it up, not even conservative leaning WELT.

The SPIEGEL has already expressed its opposition to Scholz.

[parochial boy]

One thing I’ve seen remarked on a lot is how bad the dirt digging and the attack ads have been this year. CDU lashing out like a chained dog comes to mind

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The money-laundering scandal seems to have much wider implications than expected:

According to reports, the search warrant for the finance ministry has already been issued on August 10, 2021. Some find it highly suspicious that the operation was carried out a month after the warrant has been issued - conveniently, two weeks before the election. This poses some questions. People always have pointed out that the responsible prosecutor and his boss, the justice minister of Lower Saxony, are both CDU members.

It seems as if Scholz was rightly irritated that the ministry has been raided - the prosecution has been ongoing since 2020 and the finance ministry has always been cooperative. Two questions are of importance here: Why was a police raid necessary, and, why did the prosecution wait until two weeks prior to the general election if the warrant had already been issues weeks before?

[WMS]

And did you mean the CDU in the comment about the gas pipeline?*

And for the russophilia, well, there had been strong connections between East Germany and Russia for forty-five years, of course this has an influence on how people here view Russia or think, they understand Russia. In fact, for the middle-aged and older generations, here, the US are much more alien and "un-European" than Russia. So, it doesn't strike me as odd, that parties who would have a huge chunk of their voter base in the East reflect this a bit. What strikes me as odd, is that the west German right-wing-conservatives who for two generations feared "the Russian in front of their door" are reviving the old German conservative russophilia of the Kaiserreich, too.

Isn't an obvious reason, perhaps, that a Marxist-Leninist USSR with huge number of soldiers in East Germany is objectively and qualitatively different than a fairly non-ideological, hybrid-regime-ruled Russia whose closest armed forces are now over in Kaliningrad?

I mean, 30 years is plenty of time to adjust to the changed realities--though, admittedly, many people even now like to act like it's still the Cold War (see: the D.C. foreign policy/military blob, etc). But maybe Germans are just more clear on this point

Pointing out the Russian-Chinese push to gain hegemony over “the liberal West” is not ‘acting like it’s still the Cold War’ it is adjusting to the changed realities. Just because it’s not about The Communist Threat anymore doesn’t mean great power competition ceased. And there is still an ideological component to it: Russia and China are doing all they can to undermine democracy and promote authoritarianism. This will inevitably cause different political alignments both within and between countries, such as German right-wing conservatives now adoring Russia. Labeling any and all criticism of Russian and Chinese actions and motives as just old Cold Warriors stuck in the past is intellectually lazy and politically dishonest.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

BTW, coal isn't ramped up in Germany, instead it's renewables and yes, pitifully, partly also natural gas.

All the german progress in renewables reducing carbon emissions has been completely wiped out by the knee-jerk removal of nuclear power without any real plan or thought due to a momentary public panic and a decade long smear campaign that was stoked by a certain party.

[MaxQue]

BTW, coal isn't ramped up in Germany, instead it's renewables and yes, pitifully, partly also natural gas.

All the german progress in renewables reducing carbon emissions has been completely wiped out by the knee-jerk removal of nuclear power without any real plan or thought due to a momentary public panic and a decade long smear campaign that was stoked by a certain party.

Except no nuclear plant has been built since the 80's (and all East German ones closed in 1990 due to poor Soviet conception), so most of them would have been closed anyways due to their age.

The company who built them all (Siemens) is also out of the industry and their deals with Russia for it, which is, in my opinion, the main problem of nuclear (having to rely on an hostile dictatorship for uranium).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

BTW, coal isn't ramped up in Germany, instead it's renewables and yes, pitifully, partly also natural gas.

All the german progress in renewables reducing carbon emissions has been completely wiped out by the knee-jerk removal of nuclear power without any real plan or thought due to a momentary public panic and a decade long smear campaign that was stoked by a certain party.

Except no nuclear plant has been built since the 80's (and all East German ones closed in 1990 due to poor Soviet conception), so most of them would have been closed anyways due to their age.

The company who built them all (Siemens) is also out of the industry and their deals with Russia for it, which is, in my opinion, the main problem of nuclear (having to rely on an hostile dictatorship for uranium).

They would have shut down on a much slower time-scale with a proper plan for having them all replaced with renewable power so there would have been no need to expand coal or natrual gas and even then only for the reason that a certain party had made it's raison d'etre to elimiate it.

[Astatine]

BTW, coal isn't ramped up in Germany, instead it's renewables and yes, pitifully, partly also natural gas.

All the german progress in renewables reducing carbon emissions has been completely wiped out by the knee-jerk removal of nuclear power without any real plan or thought due to a momentary public panic and a decade long smear campaign that was stoked by a certain party.

Except no nuclear plant has been built since the 80's (and all East German ones closed in 1990 due to poor Soviet conception), so most of them would have been closed anyways due to their age.

The company who built them all (Siemens) is also out of the industry and their deals with Russia for it, which is, in my opinion, the main problem of nuclear (having to rely on an hostile dictatorship for uranium).

The nuclear power plants are structurally sound and could've run well into the 2030's. Germany would have been able to shut down all coal power plants by this decade. Even when abandoning the "older" ones such as Biblis - The 6 reactors still running account for 12 % of power generation and could easily have done their job for a longer time.

The phase-out itself (in general, not the one passed under Merkel's government but also the first proposed plan under Schröder) is a reason why public and private research on nuclear issues has been on constant decline in Germany. Several universities have abolished or diminished their Departments responsible for nuclear research, including my own university, as there is no interest to continue doing research on that matter when the industry here will be dead anyways.

Well but now we have to rely on a hostile dictatorship for gas.
Ah, and we have to rely on France, Czechia and Poland, from whom energy has to be imported when the renewables aren't delivering.

And SPD's original intent behind their opposition to nuclear power wasn't really related to environmentalism, but rather on pleasing the coal workers.
Germany is #1 worldwide in lignite/brown coal mining, ahead of China.

[parochial boy]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

The green party was the biggest pusher in the anti-nuclear movement that was responsible for the elimination of nuclear power. The removal of nuclear power was the biggest disruption to the German power grid in recent history responsible for causing increased use of coal.

It's like saying that you can't blame ukip and Nigel farage for Brexit becuase they were never the Goverment. It completely ignored political realities

[Astatine]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

The green party was the biggest pusher in the anti-nuclear movement that was responsible for the elimination of nuclear power. The removal of nuclear power was the biggest disruption to the German power grid in recent history responsible for causing increased use of coal.

It's like saying that you can't blame ukip and Nigel f
Garage for Brexit becuase they were never the Goverment. It completely ignored political realities

Totally agreed, the Greens' constant scare-mongering played a big role in why a majority of Germans oppose nuclear power. And energy production accounts for 30 % (221 million tons CO₂ eq) of the 739 million tons of CO₂ eq emitted, making it the sector with most emissions.

The Finnish Greens for instance have revoked their original stance on nuclear power, while they're still not actively endorsing it, they prioritize net zero emissions over a nuclear phase-out that would just lead to more reliance on fossil fuels.

[President Johnson]

Armin Laschet's speech at the CSU convention was better than expected, according to pundits. However, he's under massive criticism for saying "Social Democrats were wrong on everything in post-war Germany", which is - objectively speaking - historical ignorance. I'd not even say the same applies to Christian Democrats, as Konrad Adenauer has major accomplishments and Helmut Kohl despite everything deserves credit for reunification. Also, Kurt-Georg Kiesinger was a better chancellor than most people think.

New poll about which party runs the best campaign:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436734067282784262

[H. Ross Peron]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

The green party was the biggest pusher in the anti-nuclear movement that was responsible for the elimination of nuclear power. The removal of nuclear power was the biggest disruption to the German power grid in recent history responsible for causing increased use of coal.

It's like saying that you can't blame ukip and Nigel f
Garage for Brexit becuase they were never the Goverment. It completely ignored political realities

Totally agreed, the Greens' constant scare-mongering played a big role in why a majority of Germans oppose nuclear power. And energy production accounts for 30 % (221 million tons CO₂ eq) of the 739 million tons of CO₂ eq emitted, making it the sector with most emissions.

The Finnish Greens for instance have revoked their original stance on nuclear power, while they're still not actively endorsing it, they prioritize net zero emissions over a nuclear phase-out that would just lead to more reliance on fossil fuels.

I agree with your posts but its mildly ironic to gave a Green-DE avatar be so critical of the German Green Party on energy policy.

[Astatine]

I agree with your posts but its mildly ironic to gave a Green-DE avatar be so critical of the German Green Party on energy policy.

I apologize for the confusion, my avatar is supposed to be a German version of a certain G-LA avatar, including the display name. But it's gonna be changed after the election eventually anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Armin Laschet's speech at the CSU convention was better than expected, according to pundits.

They would, I suspect, have said this unless his trousers had fallen down mid-speech.

[President Johnson]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

[Astatine]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

It would be absolutely hilarious if the Greens manage to fall behind the FDP, although INSA's numbers tend to be lower for Greens and higher for the Liberals.

But such a scenario would also significantly improve the chances of a traffic light coalition, since the FDP could claim the Finance Ministry and would not just serve as an appendix to a red-green government.

[President Johnson]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

It would be absolutely hilarious if the Greens manage to fall behind the FDP, although INSA's numbers tend to be lower for Greens and higher for the Liberals.

But such a scenario would also significantly improve the chances of a traffic light coalition, since the FDP could claim the Finance Ministry and would not just serve as an appendix to a red-green government.

Yeah, and again the Greens would get a much worse result than polls just months ahead of the election indicated. They're polling well outside the campaign season and then drop once the election seasons really starts. The opposite was true for the SPD during Schröder's time in office. Some time in 2003 the Union was polling at 50% and the SPD in the mid 20s; even in summer 2005 it was 48% vs. 24%. Once actual campaigning begun, Schröder massively improved and just lost by one point.

[Frodo]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

What is the Sonstige Party?