🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[H. Ross Peron]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

Comparatively privileged compared to whom? Workers in the Global South? Sure. To your university student friends? Doubtful.

[H. Ross Peron]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

I wouldn't say the overall left or center-left is in disarray because of this result. Obviously a ton of SPD, Left and Green voters switched to the CDU as polls and the media indicated the election could be a tossup between CDU and AfD.

However, Wagenknecht gave a very good analysis in Anne Will's talkshow yesterday, that left-wing politics are more associated with wokeness, political correctness, academic elites and forced multiculturalism and not so much about improving the lives of average people. This pretty much is true, at least center-left and left-wing parties are more associated with the former than the latter, even if it's not always objectively true. This seems to be an international phenomena and also applies to the Democratic Party in the US or Labor in the UK.

Nor is Wagenknecht simply engaging in "Horseshoe Theory" politics where she attacks the liberal centre while coddling the far-right. Here she denounces the AfD is Saxony-Anhalt for tolerating neo-Nazi elements such as those making Holocaust jokes about Anne Frank.

https://twitter.com/SWagenknecht/status/1401860230049406983

[H. Ross Peron]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

Comparatively privileged compared to whom? Workers in the Global South? Sure. To your university student friends? Doubtful.

To non-Germans, of course. What did you think?

But the point is not that they are privileged. The point is that being privileged (i.e. living in one of the wealthiest nations in Europe) and adhering to a toxic mix of nostalgia, racism, anti-intellectualism, and self-victimization is a problem. Just like the idea that one has an innate right to drive dirty cars is. Or the (even more stupid) idea that one doesn't need to care about discrimination, gender equality, and climate change because muh economic anxiety.

And catering to these people is a problem as well - at least for the LINKE. Zahlen lügen nicht as one would say in German. If the party wants to have a future, it has to change its strategy, reconsider its political preference structure, and get rid of those who sow discord and harm its electoral chances.

Starting with Wagenknecht and her red-brown ilk.

I agree that demanding the right to drive dirty cars while dismissing climate change and bigotry is a problem. However, in a democratic society working-class voters with less than up to date views on cultural issues not only will remain a significant electoral bloc for the foreseeable future but have a legitimate right to political representation. Nor is any scepticism of mass immigration or demands for changes in lifestyle to climate change in the context of deindustrialization and downward mobility simply bigotry and ignorance. After all, the upper middle classes of the developed world who preach these doctrines are generally in a much more privileged position and often do not practice what they preach either-taking trips by jet plane around the world.

It's better to me that such working-class voters be represented by the left that meets them half-way than a right-wing populist which promotes reactionary policies across the board. Considering the left around the developed world has been hollowed by the gentrification of their electorates, shouldn't Die Linke's strategy (as well as those of the SPD and Greens) be to change its strategy to appeal to its traditional electorate rather than doubling down on college educated voters?

But perhaps you and I simply have different visions of what the left should be. For me, republican egalitarianism and solidarity is at the core of any left that is worthy of being called left. Yet if we go by your post in the other thread, you appear to consider the FDP "egalitarian" because of its adherence to cultural liberal views and globalization, regardless of the fact their policies would massive increase economic inequality, whereas any left wing politics that does not fully embrace cultural liberal values is by definition "inegalitarian".

[H. Ross Peron]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/08/olaf-scholz-merit-society-not-be-limited-top-earners-germany-election

Nice article in The Guardian about Olaf Scholz, his current take on the world, and the SPD campaign centered around "Competence for Germany. Respect for you and your life".

In a wide-ranging interview with the Guardian, Scholz said he would also use the political victory within his reach to kickstart a fresh debate about how to redefine professional and social merit.

“Why did Britain vote for Brexit if it was against its own interest? Why did America vote for Trump? I believe it is because people are experiencing deep social insecurities, and lack appreciation for what they do,” the 63-year-old said before a campaign rally in the university city of Göttingen, in Lower Saxony.

“We see the same dissatisfaction and insecurity not just in the US or the UK but in the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Austria or Germany – countries that may look from the outside like they don’t have any problems at all.

“Among certain professional classes, there is a meritocratic exuberance that has led people to believe their success is completely self-made. As a result, those who actually keep the show on the road don’t get the respect they deserve. That has to change.”

Centred around the word “respect”, Scholz’s campaign borrows heavily from Harvard philosopher Michael Sandel’s recent writings on the “tyranny of merit”, and he told the Guardian he had been left “shaken” after reading the British sociologist Michael Young’s 1958 book The Rise of Meritocracy.

“He [Young] described the rise of meritocracy as a dystopian satire of the year 2034, but it has turned out to be an almost prophetic description of the trends of our time,” Scholz said.

Thinkers such as Sandel or Daniel Markovits argue that meritocracy – a political system that aims to reward individuals on the basis of talent, effort, and achievement – has come to be dominated by educated knowledge workers who define merit solely along their own value sets and neglect to credit physical forms of labour.

“There is nothing wrong about merit as such,” Scholz said. “But it is something that must not only be limited to top-earners and those with university degrees. A security guard has merit too. Manual labourers don’t deserve less respect than academics.”

And whether “respect” can become a coherent policy as well as a catchphrase remains unclear. “We have two tasks,” Scholz said. “Recognise these other types of merit on the one hand, and pay better wages for those who are not appropriately compensated on the other. A higher minimum wage is important, as are better wages for carers and skilled workers.”

Some of Scholz’s campaign pledges are social democratic in the old-fashioned sense: as well as the minimum wage increase to €12 an hour, he calls for the return of a wealth tax and the construction of 400,000 new homes a year. The SPD proposes replacing the sanction-tied Hartz IV unemployment benefit controversially introduced by the last centre-left government with a new, less “distrustful” welfare programme, called “citizens’ money”.

“Maybe progressive parties in Europe and the USA have for too long neglected to tackle these two big challenges,” Scholz said. As models for renewing the left, he points not to the Democratic party of the US president, Joe Biden, but social democratic parties in Sweden, Denmark and Finland.

The SPD candidate’s project to reinvigorate the German centre-left remains a balancing act: for while his campaign at least partially reverses out of the rhetoric of the third way, it also seeks to steal the crown of economic competence from the centre-right CDU.

Great article that shows that the SPD is seeking to return to its working class roots. Always appreciate it too when a politician demonstrates he or she reads political philosophers and thinkers like Sandel etc. I guess it remains to be seen if the voters who swing to SPD will be disproportionately working class or otherwise.

[H. Ross Peron]

Feels slightly easy to claim that the German electrical grid's high carbon output is entirely down to the nuclear question when you also have CDU types like Günthar Schartz on RWE's payroll, and all sorts of interesting going ons with regards to promoting Coal power in, but of course, Laschet's own NRW.

That and obviously the neglect of the rail infrastructure, and the German economy's dependence on dirty industries like the Car producers or the contained port in Hamburg which certain parties have been rather happy to indulge.

Blaming Germany's lack of progress on climate protection on one or two parties that have never even been in a position to set it feels pretty dishonest if you ask me.

The green party was the biggest pusher in the anti-nuclear movement that was responsible for the elimination of nuclear power. The removal of nuclear power was the biggest disruption to the German power grid in recent history responsible for causing increased use of coal.

It's like saying that you can't blame ukip and Nigel f
Garage for Brexit becuase they were never the Goverment. It completely ignored political realities

Totally agreed, the Greens' constant scare-mongering played a big role in why a majority of Germans oppose nuclear power. And energy production accounts for 30 % (221 million tons CO₂ eq) of the 739 million tons of CO₂ eq emitted, making it the sector with most emissions.

The Finnish Greens for instance have revoked their original stance on nuclear power, while they're still not actively endorsing it, they prioritize net zero emissions over a nuclear phase-out that would just lead to more reliance on fossil fuels.

I agree with your posts but its mildly ironic to gave a Green-DE avatar be so critical of the German Green Party on energy policy.

[H. Ross Peron]

FDP seems to have undergone a remarkable number of transformations since 1949, more so than any of the big German parties.

[H. Ross Peron]

Would be nice to see the Die Linke do as well as possible without cutting into the SPD lead since that will strengthen Scholz's bargaining position for a traffic light coalition.

[H. Ross Peron]

Are there any large pool of voters who might vote SPD/Green in their local constituency race but for the Union in the list election or vice versa? Given how left wing Kuhnert is, I wonder if that could happen in his seat.

[H. Ross Peron]

If the FDP absolutely ruled out a traffic light coalition but the SPD was the largest party and open to R2G, would Greens prefer the latter to a Jamaica coalition if the ball was in their court.

[H. Ross Peron]

Yes, this is a real noble running as a MLPD candidate. She won 413 votes in Gotha-Ilm Kreis.

The Red Junker.

[H. Ross Peron]

Did the CDU just gain two direct mandate seats (Märkischer Kreis II and Berlin-Marzahn-Hellersdorf)?

[H. Ross Peron]

To put into perspective just how historically bad this result is for the Union, not only did they get their lowest vote share ever, but this election also saw their lowest ever raw vote total after only 1949. Humiliating considering that the pre-reunification Federal Republic only had a population of 50-60 million.

If you consider Zentrum the pre-war Union, where does this compare to the all time low?

You cant compare the two. The Union has a significant Protestant support base that Zentrum never did. The only party that this comparison *might* be valid for is the SPD and that's ignoring the changed situation such as the disappearance of a mass communist party in the Federal Republic.

[H. Ross Peron]

Why is there such a big difference in voting patterns between the northern and southern parts of the former East Germany what with the SPD doing so well in Mecklenberg Vorpommern and Brandenburg, while in Saxony and Thuringia the SPD is so weak and the AfD is so strong? I understand the north south split in western Germany because there the south is very Catholic and the north is very Protestant and that creates political cleavages. But as far as I know the former DDR is pretty uniformly Protestant if not atheist, so there must be some other explanation

There was an extensive discussion on political patterns in Saxony dozens of pages ago in this thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305773.msg8239797#msg8239797

[H. Ross Peron]

Are there any numbers on how working-class German youths voted specifically? Would be curious to see if there's any big differences between those with and without immigrant backgrounds and if FDP made gains even with working-class youths of immigrant background due to stances on lockdown etc.

[H. Ross Peron]

A majority of Union supporters and even 47% of AFD voters want Scholz as Chancellor:

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1448921163317628939

[H. Ross Peron]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

That makes her sound perfect, but a bit more research shows she's pro Russia. A shame.

so it's basically the tankie party?

It's a weird mix of WASG types (ex left-social democrat), quite normal Left Party types, has-beens (Klaus Ernst, Sabine Zimmermann) and total crackpots (Andrej Hunko, Sevim Dagdelen). And six of the ten BSW Bundestag members have a migrational background. That doesn't really look like the alleged "left-wing-nationalist" approach.

Wagenknecht is a good public speaker and has some appeal. And some are looking for a left-wing-populist alternative that is also against sanctioning Russia and is for expanding the welfare state. (which BSW allegedly is).

What we see in this one poll is Wagenknecht's personal appeal and people projecting their wishes into the new formation that isn't even a party yet. What way it will go isn't even clear as German law basically demands intra-party democracy, prohibits top-down parties and makes it almost impossible to kick members out as long as they pay their membership fees.

Yes, the idea of the Wagenknecht party as some kind of manifestation of Ossi welfare chauvinism seems overblown (though obviously there is an element of that). Most of Die Linke's MdBs with Middle Eastern backgrounds seem to have joined her party while someone has pointed out on Twitter that all of them except Wagenknecht herself represent former West Germany. Meanwhile, much of PDS Eastern old guard seems to be staying put.

[H. Ross Peron]

Wagenknecht's economic views aren't so clear to me. Wasn't she part of an openly Communist faction within Die Linke? How should we see her new project's economic views vis-a-vis those of Die Linke?

Her Communist Platform days are obviously long gone. As chairwoman of the Left Party she basically argued the party line of expanding the welfare state, expanding and renovating infrastructure, strengthening unions and so on.

On the other hand she quoted Ludwig Erhard of ordoliberal/neoliberal fame at the BSW launch and the website tries to stress "moderate" economic views in the name of "reason", "classical" industrial policies, cheap fossil energy.

It's not surprising given that much of her recent criticism of the traffic light coalition revolved around inflation and accordingly the BSW's rhetoric speaks of "economic reason". This article seems to give a decent summary of BSW's economic tendencies: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/wagenknecht-neue-partei-100.html