Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Sestak]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Yeah this going to be 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2018 Gov razor thin margins closeness

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/fox11news/status/1113262821859581952

So that's where Kathy Nickolaus went

[Sestak]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

(~13K FWIW)

[Scottholes 2.0]

She just increased her lead with 70% of precincts reporting! Come on, DRIFTLESS AND OUTAGAMIE!

[Brittain33]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

90+% of the votes are in, though.

Hagedorn needs to make up 15,000 votes out of a maximum of 100,000 left, probably less than that.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Dunn 80% in: Hagedorn up about 250. Walker won by ~600.

e: didn't adjust for turnout both R candidates have/had 4% leads

[Sestak]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

90+% of the votes are in, though.

Hagedorn needs to make up 15,000 votes out of a maximum of 100,000 left, probably less than that.

Fair. Still not comfortable calling a favorite here.

[Brittain33]

1.4% margin with 70% in. This is going to be close.

90+% of the votes are in, though.

Hagedorn needs to make up 15,000 votes out of a maximum of 100,000 left, probably less than that.

Fair. Still not comfortable calling a favorite here.

Oh, I agree, I feel a little better for Neubauer but it’s too close. Especially if there’s an error or some unexpected batch of votes somewhere.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I told you guys it's going to be all about the driftless area!

[Xing]

If there's a takeaway point for Democrats for 2020, it's that they should do everything they can to pump out turnout in Milwaukee. Of course, other parts of the state matter as well, but had turnout been decent in Milwaukee, the race would've easily been over by now.

Anyway, I'd still rather be Neubauer than Hagedorn, but could we be headed for a recount here? Isn't the threshold 1%?

[S019]

She just increased her lead with 70% of precincts reporting! Come on, DRIFTLESS AND OUTAGAMIE!

By 0.2 percent


This is way too close to call, and will probably be called late in the night

Much better results here than I expected after Dallet's double digit win last year and WI GOP utter failure at the ballot box in 2018. Also I am relatively surprised that this is this close, compared with expectations going in, either way there are multiple sites with different amounts of the vote in, and they show a clear trend towards Hagedorn, which seems to be flattening out

Also the margin, just went back to 1.4

[kph14]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

[henster]

Maybe some 2020 candidates should've made a stop in WI a Bernie or Beto rally in Milwaukee or Madison would've helped. Such an easy thing to do too

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

The Milwaukee journal is way behind, where are yall getting this stuff from?

[Gass3268]

Almost the entire City of Sheboygan is still out. That's good for Neubauer.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Maybe some 2020 candidates should've made a stop in WI a Bernie or Beto rally in Milwaukee or Madison would've helped. Such an easy thing to do too

Beto was in Madison around St. Patrick's Day and Klobuchar I think has been in Wisconsin several times.

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

Is that final? What's the net vote?

[Gass3268]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

They are typically a good bellwether.

[S019]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

That's a big win, Door County is a classic Wisconsin swing county, if a Republican loses Door County, they've already lost the state, it's clear Neubauer is underperforming in Democratic areas, but how is she underperforming so badly that she is in an extremely tight race, after winning Door County by 8

[MT Treasurer]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

That's a big win, Door County is a classic Wisconsin swing county, if a Republican loses Door County, they've already lost the state, it's clear Neubauer is underperforming in Democratic areas, but how is she underperforming so badly that she is in an extremely tight race, after winning Door County by 8

Abysmal underperformance in the Milwaukee area.

Anyway, Decision Desk numbers:

Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     50.6%   485,359
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     49.4%   473,401

2724 of 3638 (75%) Precincts Reporting, 958,760 Total Votes

[Scottholes 2.0]

*Sigh*

I have an exam to prep for tomorrow for grad school. Let this race be over already!

[Sestak]

So basically the driftless is having to make up for Milwaukee failures for Dems?

[TWTown]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

The Milwaukee journal is way behind, where are yall getting this stuff from?

Decision Desk HQ.

[YE]

Marathon County is all in now.

That is umm 3 points better than Trump....

[Zaybay]

So basically the driftless is having to make up for Milwaukee failures for Dems?

Yep, the WWC is coming in to save the Suburban degenerates from the Republicans.