Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[MT Treasurer]

Walker gaining on Evers (who is below 50) in PPP poll. Looks like he has momentum.

Is this a joke? Their last poll had Evers up 5 (49-44), that one before had him up 4 (49-45), this one has him up 4 (49-45) as well.

[MT Treasurer]

My prediction:

Baldwin +4
Walker +2

Of course I’ll be totally wrong as always.

[MT Treasurer]

I'll say Baldwin +6 and Walker +1, but obviously there will be a meltdown whatever the result is.

Safest prediction ever.

[MT Treasurer]

prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.

How can you tell?

It's actually a D+1 sample.  I'm watching the live stream.

Ah, I see. Thanks.

[MT Treasurer]

If Walker loses this year and it’s not even particularly close, WI moves to Lean D for 2020. I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising either since Democrats only lost the state because of Clinton in the first place.

[MT Treasurer]

Also guessing Evers +3

[MT Treasurer]

It has Walker up 1, which is believable, but the sample does seem Republican-friendly.

Walker (R) - 47%
Evers (D) - 46%

Can’t wait to see how many pages the thread on the polling board will reach. Gonna guess 4 or 5.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s honestly remarkable that Walker isn’t DOA in this massive Democratic tsunami environment (assuming the polls are accurate, of course). Obviously he could lose, but the race is not a sure thing for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Tony Evers thinks we should ignore the polls. That's going to be tough to do, especially after the last MU poll.

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1052985315743416321

He’s not wrong, though. Getting complacent/overconfident is never a good idea, and your vote is the only thing that matters.

Anyway, Wisconsin is a must-win state for the GOP in 2020, so a Walker defeat would have terrible ramifications for Trump's chances in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

[MT Treasurer]

It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Sticking with this, and I’d be shocked if Walker was ahead. It’s more likely that they show Evers winning by high single-digits or low double-digits than Walker leading even narrowly.

[MT Treasurer]

If Walker winning means Trump is guaranteed to win Wisconsin in 2020, ask President Hillary Clinton about her margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

No, but the fact that Democrats haven’t put this race away in what seems to be a massive Democratic wave year even bigger than 2006 is certainly interesting, especially given how well they are doing in IA/OH/WI/MI/PA/FL.

[MT Treasurer]

Walker leading by a margin of 30 votes right now!

[MT Treasurer]

Evers will win this because of course he will.

[MT Treasurer]

Any results maps?

[MT Treasurer]

Where is this from?

Probably Decision Desk:

Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     58.4%   3,908
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     41.6%   2,784

[MT Treasurer]

A few counties where Hagedorn seems to be doing well right now (not even 50% of all precincts in, though):  

Hagedorn +10 in Kenosha (was Evers +5 in 2018)
Neubauer +2 in Douglas (was Evers +20 in 2018)

Basically meaningless because we don’t know where the vote is coming from.

[MT Treasurer]

Hagedorn is outperforming Walker 2018 in many counties so far. Still think he loses, but this will probably be closer than expected.

[MT Treasurer]

Brian Hagedorn    115,169    54%    
   Lisa Neubauer    96,288    46%    
19% reporting (683 of 3600 precincts)

Hagedorn leading 70-30(!) in Waukesha with 59% in.

[MT Treasurer]

Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     51.2%   435,488
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     48.8%   415,840

A win is a win, one more liberal justice, etc. etc., but the fact that it’s this close is pretty amazing.

[MT Treasurer]

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

That's a big win, Door County is a classic Wisconsin swing county, if a Republican loses Door County, they've already lost the state, it's clear Neubauer is underperforming in Democratic areas, but how is she underperforming so badly that she is in an extremely tight race, after winning Door County by 8

Abysmal underperformance in the Milwaukee area.

Anyway, Decision Desk numbers:

Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     50.6%   485,359
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     49.4%   473,401

2724 of 3638 (75%) Precincts Reporting, 958,760 Total Votes

[MT Treasurer]

Yikes

Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     50.3%   502,992
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     49.7%   497,676

2884 of 3638 (79%) Precincts Reporting, 1,000,668 Total Votes

[MT Treasurer]

im not calling the race but I was told that the D had this in the bag 1 hour ago when she was losing Kenosha by 5.(ik its -2 now)

Yeah, this race was never "over", even if Neubauer is probably still slightly favored. Or not.