Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Sestak]

So I take it this race has massive implications over both WIGOP power grab type stuff and in 2020 redistricting?

[Gass3268]

Conservatives are making a late outside spending push for Hagedorn for the last week. Prior to this he had been outspent 14-1 by outside spending. I would not be shocked if internal polling looked really bad. Things have not been going his way:

If polling really looked that bad wouldn't conservative write the race off and not invest anything? Easy to argue that the late push after not investing before then means outside group saw some positive signs in polling they didn't see before.

Writing off the race would essentially mean writing off the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which would be too big of a loss.

Neubauer HAS to win. Not only is this election a crucial path to Democratic control over the SC, but any judge who doesn't see the dangers of conversion therapy should REALLY be defeated!

Doesn't seem to be looking as good as it did last year for the GOP. Last year had a credible opponent, this year you have someone who's bringing out the Christian Taliban in force and it's rubbing a lot of people the wrong way.

But haven't Republicans been performing much better in specials post-2018 than they were pre-2018?

They did early on, but that as recently flipped.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Per usual the rurals have the "SOS" Save Our State, vote Talibandorn signs out in full force.

Coincidentally all the rural farms that have those signs don't like the free market milk prices and are asking the government for socialism to make more money.

Gotta love folks who vote against their own interest because of black people kneeling and Confederate traitor statues

The 2 best governors for the state in the past 40 years were Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker , both Republicans .

[Dr. Arch]

Per usual the rurals have the "SOS" Save Our State, vote Talibandorn signs out in full force.

Coincidentally all the rural farms that have those signs don't like the free market milk prices and are asking the government for socialism to make more money.

Gotta love folks who vote against their own interest because of black people kneeling and Confederate traitor statues

The 2 best governors for the state in the past 40 years were Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker , both Republicans .

Are you for real? Putting Thompson and Walker in the same category is a disgrace.

[Politician]

Per usual the rurals have the "SOS" Save Our State, vote Talibandorn signs out in full force.

Coincidentally all the rural farms that have those signs don't like the free market milk prices and are asking the government for socialism to make more money.

Gotta love folks who vote against their own interest because of black people kneeling and Confederate traitor statues

The 2 best governors for the state in the past 40 years were Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker , both Republicans .

If by best your mean biggest union-buster and voter-suppressor, then yes.

[Continential]

Per usual the rurals have the "SOS" Save Our State, vote Talibandorn signs out in full force.

Coincidentally all the rural farms that have those signs don't like the free market milk prices and are asking the government for socialism to make more money.

Gotta love folks who vote against their own interest because of black people kneeling and Confederate traitor statues

The 2 best governors for the state in the past 40 years were Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker , both Republicans .

Scott Walker is the worst governor of Wisconsin.

[Xing]

Kind of like with Reagan, Republican are hoping that saying Walker was the best governor ever enough times will make it true.

[Gass3268]

Potentially huge news:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1111003916869750784

Would be almost a certain flip for the liberals. Only makes next week's contest that much bigger.

[Drew]

Potentially huge news:

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1111003916869750784

Would be almost a certain flip for the liberals. Only makes next week's contest that much bigger.

And a liberal candidate has already announced.  Marquette law professor Ed Fallone is running.  Main downsides are lack of experience as a judge and a loss in the 2013 SC race.  But he otherwise has an extensive law background and then there’s the fact that Kelly had no judicial experience before Walker appointed him.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/ed-fallone-announces-run-for-wisconsin-supreme-court-in/article_80304dbe-fadb-5f9b-9272-becc1b37756b.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin%20state%20journal

[Gass3268]

Papers in Madison (both the center-right Wisconsin State Journal and left leaning Capital Times), Hudson, Racine, Rhinelander, La Crosse, and UW-Madison have endorsed Neubauer. Newspaper endorsements mean almost nothing now in bigger races, but in a low information campaign like this, every bit helps.

[Gass3268]

I think this race is lean Neubauer imo. Maybe I'm wrong?

Based on all the information we have, that would be fair.

[Duke of York]

I think this race is lean Neubauer imo. Maybe I'm wrong?

Based on all the information we have, that would be fair.

I second this however Democrats were also helped last year by a massive blizzard which  passed north of Madison that likely dramatically suppressed turnout in rural counties in central Wisconsin

[ElectionsGuy]

I think this is going to be another Dallet type blowout.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I think this race is lean Neubauer imo. Maybe I'm wrong?

Based on all the information we have, that would be fair.

Yeah, Hagedorn has been getting tons of negative press and has failed to receive the backing of groups that almost always back conservative judges.

[Duke of York]

I think this is going to be another Dallet type blowout.

I hope so. The stakes are very high

[Duke of York]

I think these are the four possible Election scenarios at this rate on Tuesday. Which of these scenarios is most liley to happen in your opinion?

Here is lasts years race for example:


Scenario #1: Dems have an amazing night (Neubauer wins by almost 20%)


Scenario #2: A very good night for the dems, not as good as the first but still win by a comfortable margin.


Scenario #3: Close win for the Dems, Neubauer wins Winnebago, Brown and Outagamie by razor thin margins


Scenario #4: Hagedorn wins by a under 1%, which would mostly be a huge upset.

Im hoping for scenario one but expecting two

[Badger]

Ditto

[Scottholes 2.0]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

[Scottholes 2.0]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

[Dr. Arch]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

You can imagine how Dane county looks like, so I won't even bother

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Lisa Neubauer wins by less than 12 points or loses, then its a disappointment.

[Duke of York]

If Lisa Neubauer wins by less than 12 points or loses, then its a disappointment.

Thats a very wide range to label as a disappointment

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

See anything in driftless?

[Gass3268]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

See anything in driftless?

That's the other side of the state.