Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Today, Dallas County beat its record for EV from the comparable Saturday in 2016. Something like 31,000.

Yay my home!

[Zaybay]

With these current numbers from TX, it does look like Beto will overpreform his poll numbers, probably by 2 points.

[riceowl]

Harris County had 20% more voters today than yesterday.

[Xing]

Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.

[ON Progressive]

Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.

I don't think the NV SOS spreadsheet publishes numbers until they're complete.

[Xing]

Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.

I don't think the NV SOS spreadsheet publishes numbers until they're complete.

If that's the case, then unless Democrats had a bad day in Clark, they're likely headed for some gains.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

[Gass3268]

Looks like a few rurals are already reporting today. Unless those numbers are imcomplete (which is my guess), turnout is way down there. Surprised that we don't have any turnout reports from Clark yet.

I don't think the NV SOS spreadsheet publishes numbers until they're complete.

If that's the case, then unless Democrats had a bad day in Clark, they're likely headed for some gains.

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

Democrats also didn't do that bad in Carson City.

[YE]

Also not all of rural NV is uniform. White Pine and Mineral County NV are ancestrally Democrat and the latter even voted D in a statewide race as recent as 2014 and the Dems seem to be doing OK there so far from EV.

[Xing]

^That's true, and the margins in Carson City (in terms of %) and Storey have been less brutal for Democrats. I'm really hoping we at least hear about Washoe soon.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

In 2000, Volusia was one of the Democratic counties that Gore wanted to have recounted. Why is Volusia trending Republican?

[Gass3268]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

That's good, right?

[ON Progressive]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

That's good, right?

That's very good. This is a county with a 2 point GOP registration lead.

[Gass3268]

Washoe County (I added the early vote and the absentee ballots):

October 27, 2018

Democratic - 2,385 (42.01%) (+4.75%)
Republican - 2,115 (37.26%)
Nonpartisan - 1,177 (20.73%)
Total - 5,677

Source

That's good, right?

That's very good. This is a county with a 2 point GOP registration lead.

Totals right now are:

Democratic - 26,928 (41.65%) (+1.38%)
Republican - 26,038 (40.27%)
Nonpartisan - 11,685 (18.07%)
Total - 64,651

[Oryxslayer]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

In 2000, Volusia was one of the Democratic counties that Gore wanted to have recounted. Why is Volusia trending Republican?

FL as you know is Gods waiting room. The dem base in the county was Urban Whites/Minorities in Deltona, WWC's in the in the scattered towns, and dem leaning retirees from the glory days of the New Deal Coalition. Trump flipped some of the WWC, and the retirees are...dead. So the county still has a registered dem base, but its shrinking towards the urban whites and Minorities in Deltona and and a few other communities.

[Gass3268]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

In 2000, Volusia was one of the Democratic counties that Gore wanted to have recounted. Why is Volusia trending Republican?

FL as you know is Gods waiting room. The dem base in the county was Urban Whites/Minorities in Deltona, WWC's in the in the scattered towns, and dem leaning retirees from the glory days of the New Deal Coalition. Trump flipped some of the WWC, and the retirees are...dead. So the county still has a registered dem base, but its shrinking towards the urban whites and Minorities in Deltona and and a few other communities.

Yet it appears that Soderberg has a chance in FL-06.

[Ebsy]

Rural turnout is way down today.

[Xing]

Democrats won Washoe again, this time with absentees and EV combined, by 270 votes, or a little less than 5%. Republicans netted about 800 votes in everything but Clark, so once Clark comes in, Democrats have a chance to really run up the score.

[junior chįmp]

Harris county sets a new record:



Edit...Also add this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1056187902315712517

[Hydera]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

In 2000, Volusia was one of the Democratic counties that Gore wanted to have recounted. Why is Volusia trending Republican?

FL as you know is Gods waiting room. The dem base in the county was Urban Whites/Minorities in Deltona, WWC's in the in the scattered towns, and dem leaning retirees from the glory days of the New Deal Coalition. Trump flipped some of the WWC, and the retirees are...dead. So the county still has a registered dem base, but its shrinking towards the urban whites and Minorities in Deltona and and a few other communities.

Hillary got 7,000 less votes than Obama did in 2012 and Trump  got 26,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012.  Volusia reminds me of rural previously dem voting white counties that swung to trump. Its 86% white. and a lot of older voters used to vote for the dems because they might had liked that the Dems focused a lot on social security. However the cultural wars finally made a ton of voters who didnt vote before to vote for trump. Along with Hillary being pro-free trade AND that they didnt felt the economy improved for them since Obama was elected back in 2008. While the phrase economic anxiety gets mis-used a lot. Places like these along with Obama->Trump areas do fit that narrative.

[Xing]

Democrats killed it in Clark today. Won by 16% (47.4-31.2), added 4K to the freiwal (11.7K-7.7K), 24.7K voted. Democratic statewide lead  is now over 7.5K, 22K in Clark.

[Zaybay]

Heres a tweet with the exact numbers for Clark:

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1056410396360228864?s=21

[Zaybay]

Gonna be honest, not surprised by the Clark numbers. I told people that the weekend is when the D base comes out to vote in NV, and well, there it is.

[Hindsight was 2020]

There we go baby!

[Virginiá]

Is there actually any evidence for the theory that Trump brought new voters into the fray? Because I remember this being brought up frequently way back when and it was shot down. Even during the election, there was no massive surge of registrations that would point to that theory. And if they were truly new voters, there would have to be a corresponding jump in registrations that is out of the norm for any particular locale.

What it seems more like, and especially for Florida, is that Trump's base is just mostly Republicans and to a much lesser degree, some previously Democratic/indie voters he peeled away. Granted I doubt I've seen every analysis of the 2016 election, but I don't recall seeing any proving some non-voter surge. And it's really hard to miss a true influx of new voters.