Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Xing]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

If they win Washoe by a healthy margin, a high single-digit margin is probably enough in Clark. Of course, this is all speculation, since we don't know who Indies are voting for, or how much crossover voting there will be.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

[2016]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

If they win Washoe by a healthy margin, a high single-digit margin is probably enough in Clark. Of course, this is all speculation, since we don't know who Indies are voting for, or how much crossover voting there will be.

I wonder how much crossover Vote we'll see in NV especially after Laxalt being accused of sexual assault. I can see a Heller/Sisolak Voter but I can't see a Rosen/Laxalt Voter.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

[Xing]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

That's not what he said, and he mentioned the possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized. We'll see over the next few days how real of a possibility that is.

[henster]

Mentally preparing for a disappointing election night now, this looks more like a neutral midterm than anything else. 

[bilaps]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

That's not what he said, and he mentioned the possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized. We'll see over the next few days how real of a possibility that is.

I guess there is the same possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized as a possibility of Washoe Dem turnout being cannibalized.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

That's not what he said, and he mentioned the possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized. We'll see over the next few days how real of a possibility that is.

But you touched on the problem that’s bothering me.We are seeing massive rural vote turnout already when this group is suppose to suck during midterms. After all the crap Trump has done we should be hearing the opposite. Why is Clark not murdering? Why are we doing this bad in Arizona? Why are we doing so bad in Indiana? We can’t just sit back and say “well they have registration advantage there” because then we’re just conceding AZ, MO, ND, IN, and MT based on partisanship alone

[KingSweden]

Latest from Texas:

https://mobile.twitter.com/hdl_perspective/status/1054850626411159552?ref_src=tw...

[Xing]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

It's been 3 days.

But we are already seeing monster turnout already in a lot of areas. Heck Ralston practically wrote “Heller is going to survive” in his opt this morning.

That's not what he said, and he mentioned the possibility of rural turnout being cannibalized. We'll see over the next few days how real of a possibility that is.

But you touched on the problem that’s bothering me.We are seeing massive rural vote turnout already when this group is suppose to suck during midterms. After all the crap Trump has done we should be hearing the opposite. Why is Clark not murdering? Why are we doing this bad in Arizona? Why are we doing so bad in Indiana? We can’t just sit back and say “well they have registration advantage there” because then we’re just conceding AZ, MO, ND, IN, and MT based on partisanship alone

The idea is that the blue wave is real if Democrats are winning Independents by a decent margin, and at least peeling off *some* voters who are still registered Republicans. We saw rural turnout in Nevada high enough on *one day* so far to match Washoe and Clark. Democrats are still ahead statewide, even counting absentees. If Democrats still only hold a tiny lead by the end of the week or are behind, and rural turnout is consistently high, then it might be time to start to worry.

[RI]

Not sure if it's been posted yet, but TargetSmart has uploaded EV data by state, age and other factors and is displaying its models (which again, don't be like NBC and confuse them with vote share). I thought there were maps on there too, based on his tweet image, but I haven't found them yet:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

So basically all the absentee votes in ND so far are elderly Republicans?

Edit: also the maps are here: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/map.html

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/trowaman/status/1054838880912863232

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not sure if it's been posted yet, but TargetSmart has uploaded EV data by state, age and other factors and is displaying its models (which again, don't be like NBC and confuse them with vote share). I thought there were maps on there too, based on his tweet image, but I haven't found them yet:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

So basically all the absentee votes in ND so far are elderly Republicans?

Edit: also the maps are here: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/map.html

Yeah, in many states that have restrictive laws for early voting by mail/absentee, those skew heavily towards older voters. Mail vote is very different in those states as compared to a state like WA, OR, or CO where everyone or large #s votes by mail.

[DataGuy]

According to the Texas Secretary of State's early voting report for yesterday, turnout equalled or exceeded 2016 turnout in both Trump counties and Clinton counties.

My formulas were suggesting amazingly high vote tallies that even I had a hard time believing, but maybe it'll be right after all. Take it from a local: it's absolutely crazy here. I saw it myself.

[indietraveler]

Seeing Beto pull this out would be my favorite thing to happen in a long time, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right? Otherwise I'm afraid based on what I've read through so far I'm just going to be disappointed (but I do like all the updates).

[RI]

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right?

TargetSmart suggests ~9% of TX voters so far had either never voted or voted infrequently. No idea about urban/rural.

State	New/Infrequent
AZ	18.8%
CA	21.1%
CO	14.4%
FL	17.0%
GA	18.4%
IA	15.4%
IN	13.3%
MI	6.8%
MN	17.5%
NC	15.0%
NJ	18.5%
NV	18.6%
OH	15.9%
TN	15.5%
TX	9.0%
WI	14.0%

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1054886777498959872

[KingSweden]

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right?

TargetSmart suggests ~9% of TX voters so far had either never voted or voted infrequently. No idea about urban/rural.

State	New/Infrequent
AZ	18.8%
CA	21.1%
CO	14.4%
FL	17.0%
GA	18.4%
IA	15.4%
IN	13.3%
MI	6.8%
MN	17.5%
NC	15.0%
NJ	18.5%
NV	18.6%
OH	15.9%
TN	15.5%
TX	9.0%
WI	14.0%

Well below the average. I’ll be curious to see if that holds as (presumably) more of the EV shifts to in person rather than mail

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1054893927763992576
Not sure on the exact numbers, but Dallas County beat its 2016 EV totals again on Day 2.

Tarrant County also saw an increase from yesterday but 2016 also increased on day 2 so about 2K below 2016.

[indietraveler]

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right?

TargetSmart suggests ~9% of TX voters so far had either never voted or voted infrequently. No idea about urban/rural.

State	New/Infrequent
AZ	18.8%
CA	21.1%
CO	14.4%
FL	17.0%
GA	18.4%
IA	15.4%
IN	13.3%
MI	6.8%
MN	17.5%
NC	15.0%
NJ	18.5%
NV	18.6%
OH	15.9%
TN	15.5%
TX	9.0%
WI	14.0%

Well below the average. I’ll be curious to see if that holds as (presumably) more of the EV shifts to in person rather than mail

Yeah hoping that would be higher, but I guess it's still early.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right?

TargetSmart suggests ~9% of TX voters so far had either never voted or voted infrequently. No idea about urban/rural.

State	New/Infrequent
AZ	18.8%
CA	21.1%
CO	14.4%
FL	17.0%
GA	18.4%
IA	15.4%
IN	13.3%
MI	6.8%
MN	17.5%
NC	15.0%
NJ	18.5%
NV	18.6%
OH	15.9%
TN	15.5%
TX	9.0%
WI	14.0%

Well below the average. I’ll be curious to see if that holds as (presumably) more of the EV shifts to in person rather than mail

The problem with the TX TargetSmart data (and TX Early voting in general) is that it is very decentralized. Each county clerk is basically its own fiefdom and keeps its own data (and stores it in different ways). So the early vote data has to be collected separately from each county. Particularly for smaller counties, that is not possible because there are so many of them. That means - in contrast to states like GA or NC with early voting and more centralized election administration - it is pretty arbitrary as to what is included and what isn't included, and what days it gets updated. You can see that on the map view with the TX data, if you go forward and back in time to see when it is coming in from different counties. Because of the difficulty with collecting data for many rural counties, the available data skews somewhat towards urban/suburban counties.

Right now it is about 75% mail ballots, and the mail ballots are virtually all cast by seniors (about 97.5% of them), because there is not no excuse absentee ballots by mail except for people over age 65. That also biases it somewhat to people with good vote history.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Clark likely to hit 25k turnout again https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1054891245611479040

[RI]

I wonder what the % is so far for 1st time or atypical voters in both urban and rural areas. If reported, that would be the stat to look at as early voting progresses right?

TargetSmart suggests ~9% of TX voters so far had either never voted or voted infrequently. No idea about urban/rural.

State	New/Infrequent
AZ	18.8%
CA	21.1%
CO	14.4%
FL	17.0%
GA	18.4%
IA	15.4%
IN	13.3%
MI	6.8%
MN	17.5%
NC	15.0%
NJ	18.5%
NV	18.6%
OH	15.9%
TN	15.5%
TX	9.0%
WI	14.0%

Well below the average. I’ll be curious to see if that holds as (presumably) more of the EV shifts to in person rather than mail

The problem with the TX TargetSmart data (and TX Early voting in general) is that it is very decentralized. Each county clerk is basically its own fiefdom and keeps its own data (and stores it in different ways). So the early vote data has to be collected separately from each county. Particularly for smaller counties, that is not possible because there are so many of them. That means - in contrast to states like GA or NC with early voting and more centralized election administration - it is pretty arbitrary as to what is included and what isn't included, and what days it gets updated. You can see that on the map view with the TX data, if you go forward and back in time to see when it is coming in from different counties. Because of the difficulty with collecting data for many rural counties, the available data skews somewhat towards urban/suburban counties.

Right now it is about 75% mail ballots, and the mail ballots are virtually all cast by seniors (about 97.5% of them), because there is not no excuse absentee ballots by mail except for people over age 65. That also biases it somewhat to people with good vote history.

I agree that the TX number seems rather low, but I'm not sure you can pin it on either of those things. Being just urban/suburban areas should bias the new/infrequent number upward if Beto's actually bringing in new voters. If the bias is just because of elderly mail voters, you'd expect a similar low number somewhere like ND, but even ND is 13.3%.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I agree that the TX number seems rather low, but I'm not sure you can pin it on either of those things. Being just urban/suburban areas should bias the new/infrequent number upward if Beto's actually bringing in new voters. If the bias is just because of elderly mail voters, you'd expect a similar low number somewhere like ND, but even ND is 13.3%.

This which I posted back 2 or pages prior is the best info on vote history in TX that is available at the moment. Although this is a bit skewed towards mail votes, it is less so than the TargetSmart data is right now:

https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1054792918743998465



The TargetSmart data *will* for sure be more informative eventually (probably within a few days and hopefully somewhat by tomorrow), but at the moment it is just not updated enough yet to get a view of voters in general.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Sounds great to me!