Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ugh that Doug Saunders tweet was cringeworthy. I can't believe you can get a column in a national paper and not know at least the basics of our electoral geography.

Chretien called...and Martin called...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The transposed 2015 federal results in Northern Ontario:

Kiiwetinoong - NDP
Kenora-Rainy River - Cons
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - Lib
Thunder Bay-Superior North - Lib
Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Sault Ste. Marie - Lib
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP
Timmins - Lib
Timiskaming-Cochrane - Lib
Nickel Belt - Lib
Sudbury - Lib
Nipissing - Lib

thx, the map has been edited.

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

[Lord Halifax]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

A Tory ain't no Liberal.

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

A Tory ain't no Liberal.

What if he changed his name to John Grit?

[Don Vito Corleone]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

[King of Kensington]

However, if the NDP actually attempts to reach the median voter in the Toronto suburbs then there is a good chance swing voters might not break as favorably for the PCs. In 2015 after all, Vaughan-Woodbridge gave the Libs+NDP combined around 53.5% in 2015, and it doesn't look like the riding changed all that much in redistricting. So there are clearly swing voters who would vote against the PC if given the proper appeal.

Vaughan is the epicenter of "blue Liberalism" in Ontario and given how the right-wing flank of the Liberal vote ditched Kathleen Wynne for moving the party too far to the left, it's not surprising how much the PC vote shot up there.  

Just because the combined Lib+NDP vote exceeded 50% doesn't mean it's winnable for a more centrist NDP once the PCs become less popular.  Unless the Liberals die completely and the NDP really morphs into something like the US Democrats.  But the party cultures are different and I expect some seats to turn blue if the NDP becomes the dominant force on the center-left.  Vaughan and other York Region seats are of course the type of places a renewed Liberal Party can win seats if they become a contender again.

[BigSkyBob]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

A Tory ain't no Liberal.

What if he changed his name to John Grit?

Who is John Grit?

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

A Tory ain't no Liberal.

What if he changed his name to John Grit?

Who is John Grit?

'Tory' is the label for Conservative.  'Grit' is the label for Liberal, at least in Canada.

So, what if John 'Tory' changed his name to John 'Grit'?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Oryxslayer]

I think Orange-Brown is better for the NDP then Orange-red. It blends in with the Libs - especially in Ottawa. But it might just be my computers brightness.

[King of Kensington]

Inner Toronto

NDP  208,757  52.6%
Liberals  90,658  22.8%
PCs  75,753  19.1%

Outer Toronto

PCs  283,431  40.5%
Liberals  196,488  28%
NDP  191,423  27.3%

[King of Kensington]

Inner TO = Beaches-East York, Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Spadina-Fort York, St. Paul's, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale; outer TO = the rest.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I don't like the result it represents but this map is still quite aesthetically pleasing

[adma]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

Only because there was no Liberal candidate for mayor in 2014, and for some reason (Ok, strategic voting to stop Ford) Liberals/progressives didn't want to vote for Olivia Chow.

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

Only because there was no Liberal candidate for mayor in 2014, and for some reason (Ok, strategic voting to stop Ford) Liberals/progressives didn't want to vote for Olivia Chow.

You think?  My understanding is that he has been embraced by the Liberals since becoming mayor.

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope Al doesn't mind me using his template (Not sure how much was altered from Smid's original map) but I wanted to make some quick swing maps:



Fairly proud of my city What is wrong with the rest of the province?

The other two areas that saw a decrease in PC vote share was Timmins (I guess the PC candidate was popular there in 2014, he was a city councillor at the time who was elected mayor later on that year) and London West (the PC candidate was a piece of sh*t.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yep, feel free to use. And that's a hilarious map - the latest case of Ottawa doing different. Elsewhere... a lot of that is correction from underperformance under Hudak and would have happened regardless, but I think the big increases in some heavily minority suburbs (of whatever social profile) are a little different.

[Hatman 🍁]

Corresponding NDP map:



Decreases are easy to explain:
Northwest Tororonto: "Fordnation effect" - lower income immigrant ridings where the NDP did well in 2014, but where Doug Ford did extremely well in the 2014 mayoral election. Interestingly, despite the negative swing the NDP picked up two of these ridings thanks to the Liberals tanking even worse.

Oshawa, Windsor-Tecumseh, Essex: NDP 'populist' seats. Windsor West swung to the NDP though because 2014 saw a close NDP-Liberal race (Liberal incumbent). Many of those 2014 Liberal voters went NDP in 2018.

Niagara Centre, Brampton East, & the three in the far north: These ridings all went NDP in 2014 but had no incumbents on the ballot in 2018.

Scarborough North: Popular NDP candidate in 2014 who still lost and did not run in 2018 (he's now a city councillor)

[DC Al Fine]

Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as Essex in particular is concerned there's just the issue of 'unwinding' from a real freak of a result last time. But mostly the map is of the bulk of the province catching up with the parts that have always had historically good NDP results under Horwath (inc. the total reversal in those parts where the Horwath NDP performed worse than the Hampton NDP somehow).

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, where's the lolLiberals swing map ?

You're a sadist. But fine:



Not very interesting at all. Smaller decreases in areas where the Liberal vote was already emaciated. Biggest decrease in the Soo.

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

Only because there was no Liberal candidate for mayor in 2014, and for some reason (Ok, strategic voting to stop Ford) Liberals/progressives didn't want to vote for Olivia Chow.

You think?  My understanding is that he has been embraced by the Liberals since becoming mayor.

Has he embraced them?

I don't know why John Tory of all people would want the OLP leadership. Perhaps he's a masochist and wants to mix losing in Don Valley West with losing a by-election in a safe seat in a cocktail of his old failures