Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, Ford, like Harris, won it in the 'burbs. I suspect the addition of Ford-ist resentment politics to the PC brand was useful in that regard.

(regarding the S.W. though: NDP hopes for gains were based on the possibility of the NDP vote province-wide increasing much more than the PC vote. If that was not the case - and it was not the case - then rather obviously not much progress would be made. Welcome to FPTP. Though they're well positioned as clear challengers just about everywhere now).

[PeteB]

Is Horwath going to stay as NDP leader?

No reason for her not to.

[ON Progressive]

Is Horwath going to stay as NDP leader?

Almost certainly. The NDP's caucus is over double the size it was at dissolution, and the NDP has improved in every single election under her leadership.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

[Krago]

The Liberals finished fourth behind the Greens in three ridings: Dufferin-Caledon, Guelph and Parry Sound-Muskoka.

The Greens did not finish second anywhere, but they finished fifth in four ridings: behind the Northern Ontario Party in Algoma-Manitoulin and Timiskaming-Cochrane, behind the Libertarians in Scarborough Centre, and behind an Independent candidate in Mississauga-Malton.  (P.S. I know a South Park fan that pronounces the name Liber-arians.)

The riding that came closest to matching the province-wide figures was Brampton South (PC 41.0%, NDP 33.8%, Lib 18.9%, Green 3.9%, Others 2.4%).

[Tintrlvr]

There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

Why are the new polling divisions the way that they are? Mostly much larger but with a bunch that seems to cover only one building, or one block. So strange.

[Krago]

There is currently a bill (C-402 before the Senate that would change the names of several federal ridings.

The 2005 Representation Act contained provisions that would automatically change the name of the provincial riding whenever its federal counterpart did the same.  This section was removed from the 2015 Act.

This means that the MP for Mississauga-Streetsville will soon become the member for Meadowvale-Streetsville-Lisgar, and the MP for Nickel Belt will soon represent Greater Sudbury-Nickel Belt, but their provincial colleagues will keep the existing names.  At least for a while.

[ON Progressive]

Meadowvale-Streetsville-Lisgar seems like a pretty bad riding name.

[Krago]

Here's the full list:

Cape Breton--Canso changes to Cape Breton--North Nova
South Shore--St. Margarets changes to South Nova
Sydney--Victoria changes to Cape Breton by the Sea
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis changes to Lévis--Bellechasse--Etchemins
Jonquière changes to Jonquière–Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan changes to Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot changes to Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton
Mississauga--Streetsville changes to Streetsville--Meadowvale--Lisgar
Nickel Belt changes to Greater Sudbury--Nickel Belt
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley changes to Winnipeg West--Headingley
Regina--Lewvan changes to Regina West
Calgary Signal Hill changes to Calgary West
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake changes to Fort McMurray--Lac La Biche--Cold Lake
Burnaby South changes to Burnaby--Douglas
Langley--Aldergrove changes to Langley--West Abbotsford
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon changes to Abbotsford--Mission--Fraser Canyon

[DC Al Fine]

Here's the full list:

Cape Breton--Canso changes to Cape Breton--North Nova
South Shore--St. Margarets changes to South Nova
Sydney--Victoria changes to Cape Breton by the Sea
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis changes to Lévis--Bellechasse--Etchemins
Jonquière changes to Jonquière–Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan changes to Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot changes to Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton
Mississauga--Streetsville changes to Streetsville--Meadowvale--Lisgar
Nickel Belt changes to Greater Sudbury--Nickel Belt
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley changes to Winnipeg West--Headingley
Regina--Lewvan changes to Regina West
Calgary Signal Hill changes to Calgary West
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake changes to Fort McMurray--Lac La Biche--Cold Lake
Burnaby South changes to Burnaby--Douglas
Langley--Aldergrove changes to Langley--West Abbotsford
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon changes to Abbotsford--Mission--Fraser Canyon

Effing ____ Nova riding names. Let's rename Fundy Royal to Southeast New and Abbotsford to British South while we're at it

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the full list:

Cape Breton--Canso changes to Cape Breton--North Nova
South Shore--St. Margarets changes to South Nova
Sydney--Victoria changes to Cape Breton by the Sea
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis changes to Lévis--Bellechasse--Etchemins
Jonquière changes to Jonquière–Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan changes to Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot changes to Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton
Mississauga--Streetsville changes to Streetsville--Meadowvale--Lisgar
Nickel Belt changes to Greater Sudbury--Nickel Belt
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley changes to Winnipeg West--Headingley
Regina--Lewvan changes to Regina West
Calgary Signal Hill changes to Calgary West
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake changes to Fort McMurray--Lac La Biche--Cold Lake
Burnaby South changes to Burnaby--Douglas
Langley--Aldergrove changes to Langley--West Abbotsford
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon changes to Abbotsford--Mission--Fraser Canyon

Why make riding names Longer?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, these riding names were discussed in another thread. Mostly they are pretty terrible.

There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

Why are the new polling divisions the way that they are? Mostly much larger but with a bunch that seems to cover only one building, or one block. So strange.

It's to coincide with the move from using ballot boxes to voting machines. The thought process was it would be cheaper (bigger polling divisions means fewer poll workers) and quicker, but in reality was more chaotic and much slower.

It took me half an hour to vote. When we got in, we didn't know where our line began or ended. The actual voting 'booth' can hardly be described as such, and pretty sure the voter next to me was peeking to see who I voted for. After than you hold your ballot in an envelope (and aren't told which way it's supposed to go) and get into a massive line that wandered around the gym (our voting place) because there was just one voting machine for the entire gym. (I'm a bit confused, because there were the same number of polling stations within our polling place, but was it for just one poll?) And then when you finally get to the machine, a poll clerk shifts your ballot the other way, because of course it's in the wrong way (and I read some people had their ballots REMOVED from the envelope, exposing their vote), before putting it in a machine that looks suspiciously like a shredder.

[Tintrlvr]

Yeah, these riding names were discussed in another thread. Mostly they are pretty terrible.

There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

Why are the new polling divisions the way that they are? Mostly much larger but with a bunch that seems to cover only one building, or one block. So strange.

It's to coincide with the move from using ballot boxes to voting machines. The thought process was it would be cheaper (bigger polling divisions means fewer poll workers) and quicker, but in reality was more chaotic and much slower.

It took me half an hour to vote. When we got in, we didn't know where our line began or ended. The actual voting 'booth' can hardly be described as such, and pretty sure the voter next to me was peeking to see who I voted for. After than you hold your ballot in an envelope (and aren't told which way it's supposed to go) and get into a massive line that wandered around the gym (our voting place) because there was just one voting machine for the entire gym. (I'm a bit confused, because there were the same number of polling stations within our polling place, but was it for just one poll?) And then when you finally get to the machine, a poll clerk shifts your ballot the other way, because of course it's in the wrong way (and I read some people had their ballots REMOVED from the envelope, exposing their vote), before putting it in a machine that looks suspiciously like a shredder.

The larger divisions I get - but why are some tiny?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, these riding names were discussed in another thread. Mostly they are pretty terrible.

There are polling division maps, apparently (only select ridings): https://globalnews.ca/news/4260146/ontario-election-poll-level-results-2/

Can't find the data anywhere.

And the new polling divisions are ghastly.

Why are the new polling divisions the way that they are? Mostly much larger but with a bunch that seems to cover only one building, or one block. So strange.

It's to coincide with the move from using ballot boxes to voting machines. The thought process was it would be cheaper (bigger polling divisions means fewer poll workers) and quicker, but in reality was more chaotic and much slower.

It took me half an hour to vote. When we got in, we didn't know where our line began or ended. The actual voting 'booth' can hardly be described as such, and pretty sure the voter next to me was peeking to see who I voted for. After than you hold your ballot in an envelope (and aren't told which way it's supposed to go) and get into a massive line that wandered around the gym (our voting place) because there was just one voting machine for the entire gym. (I'm a bit confused, because there were the same number of polling stations within our polling place, but was it for just one poll?) And then when you finally get to the machine, a poll clerk shifts your ballot the other way, because of course it's in the wrong way (and I read some people had their ballots REMOVED from the envelope, exposing their vote), before putting it in a machine that looks suspiciously like a shredder.

The larger divisions I get - but why are some tiny?

Looks like they could be old folks homes and maybe large apartment buildings. Though, I'm not sure why the latter would be so special. Perhaps proximity issues. I can only see a sliver of my riding on one of those maps, but it appears some of the apartments on Riverside Dr got their own polls, perhaps due to the fact that nearest church or school was very far away.

[Krago]

Based on the NDP narrowest losses (in terms of pct of vote), here are the seats they would have needed to win to keep the PCs from a majority:

Ottawa West--Nepean (-0.3%)
Brantford--Brant (-1.1%)
Sault Ste. Marie (-1.3%)
Brampton West (-1.3%)
Kitchener--Conestoga (-1.6%)
Kitchener South--Hespeler (-1.8%)
Scarborough--Rouge Park (-2.3%)
Thunder Bay--Superior North (-2.7%)
Peterborough--Kawartha (-3.6%)
Cambridge (-4.5%)
Scarborough Centre (-5.1%)
Etobicoke--Lakeshore (-5.5%)
Scarborough--Guildwood (-5.7%)
Mississauga--Malton (-6.3%)
Brampton South (-7.2%)
Ajax (-8.1%)
Don Valley East (-8.5%)
Flamborough--Glanbrook (-9.4%)


And they would have needed to win these to gain a pluarality of seats:

Pickering--Uxbridge (-10.2%)
Whitby (-10.3%)


And they would have needed these to win a majority:

Kenora--Rainy River (-10.9%)
Burlington (-11.8%)
Ottawa South (-12.5%)

[DL]

Thunder Bay Superior North went Liberal so an NDP win there would not have prevented a PC majority

[PeteB]

Thunder Bay Superior North went Liberal so an NDP win there would not have prevented a PC majority

So did Scarborough Guildwood and Ottawa South, from the list.

[Krago]

The Cube Rule of British politics states that the ratio of the seats won by each party is equal to the ratio of the cubes of their popular vote.  So if a party gets twice the votes of another party, they should win eight times as many seats.

Applying the Cube Rule to the Ontario election would give these results:

PC 74, NDP 42, Lib 8

The actual numbers are: PC 76, NDP 40, Lib 7, Green 1

Here's another thing I noticed.

Instead of having a complicated seat projection formula, if you just took the province-wide swing by party (Lib -19.08%, PC +9.19%, NDP +9.82%, Grn -0.22%, Oth +0.28%) and applied it to each riding based on the transposed 2014 votes, you would end up with 76 PCs, 40 New Democrats and 8 Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Cube Rule of British politics states that the ratio of the seats won by each party is equal to the ratio of the cubes of their popular vote.  So if a party gets twice the votes of another party, they should win eight times as many seats.

Applying the Cube Rule to the Ontario election would give these results:

PC 74, NDP 42, Lib 8

The actual numbers are: PC 76, NDP 40, Lib 7, Green 1

Here's another thing I noticed.

Instead of having a complicated seat projection formula, if you just took the province-wide swing by party (Lib -19.08%, PC +9.19%, NDP +9.82%, Grn -0.22%, Oth +0.28%) and applied it to each riding based on the transposed 2014 votes, you would end up with 76 PCs, 40 New Democrats and 8 Liberals.

What would've changed with a uniform swing?

Ridings the NDP would've won:
Brampton West
Etobicoke North
Kenora-Rainy River
Mississauga-Malton
Thunder Bay-Superior North

Ridings the PCs would've won:
Don Valley West
Guelph
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Ottawa South
St. Catharines
Scarborough-Guildwood

Ridings the Liberals would've won:
Ottawa Centre
Sault Ste. Marie
Scarborough Centre
Toronto Centre
Toronto-St. Paul's
Vaughan-Woodbridge

[jaichind]

Anyway, it's pretty clear that Wynne's concession cost her party official status. Genius move!

Is this that clear?  I admit it did not work but it is not clear that it actually hurt LIB.  One can make an argument that LIB performance would been the same if not worse if it was not for Wynne's preemptive concession.

[ON Progressive]

So is Horwath on the way out as Leader or...?

Not going to happen. Parties don't tend to throw out leaders who more than double the size of their party's caucus and put them above third party status for the first time in over two decades.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are the chances Horwath could eventually become the NDP's national leader? I'd imagine she's on a lot of people's radars. If she can continue to expand the NDP's regional scope in Ontario, I'd imagine she'd have some magic nationwide.

In response to AndrewCA, Horwath lead her party to Official Opposition status in Ontario, if she did that, she deserves to lead them in the Assembly, and I imagine the party officials would agree.

[Oryxslayer]

So is Horwath on the way out as Leader or...?

Not going to happen. Parties don't tend to throw out leaders who more than double the size of their party's caucus and put them above third party status for the first time in over two decades.

Yeah Horwath for now is fairly safe. The people getting the boot are her campaign staff who sent Horwath and NDP resources to reach seats rather then shoring up the NDP-leaning ones in the south. The only reason she would get the boot is if the provincial NDP decides that they need someone with a more 'moderate' image at the helm to pull in the left-liberals in the 905. If that happens though, it would be several years in the future, not right post-election.

[DL]

What are the chances Horwath could eventually become the NDP's national leader?

Elle ne parle pas francais

[136or142]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

Mind breaking them down by the EKOS regions?

Here:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/


Regions broken down on a map:

I'll get around to it if nobody does it before me.  That said, I don't really like their regional breakdowns (too many regions and I think the ridings around Lake Simcoe should be recognized as a separate region - Cottage Country.)  In addition to that region being the strongest Conservative, it's also the strongest Green.  I think 'Cottage Country' is clearly its own region (it could also be called Central Ontario.)

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

I also think the idea of Nipissing being in 'the North' is really stretching things.


A couple of other points
1.In the last election, the Liberals received, I think, 38.6% of the vote (close to that anyway,) in this election, the Liberals received over 30% of the vote in just 18 of the 124 ridings.

2.The NDP lost 9 ridings by less than 5% of the vote, but they won 7 ridings (including Oshawa!) by less than 5% of the vote.  I don't know if that's a wash or not in close ridings, but if you're going to look at the narrow losses, I think you should also take into account the narrow wins.

It's odd that the NDP barely held on to Oshawa when they improved so much in Whitby (not sure about Durham.)  The Whitby NDP candidate was nominated a long time before the election, I don't know if that played a role or not in the NDP doing relatively well there.