Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

[ON Progressive]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

[DC Al Fine]

Please use this thread exclusively for discussion and analysis of results, trying to keep partisan commentary and cheerleading to a minimum.

The usual rules apply.

Results links
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/
https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election.html
http://windsorstar.com/tag/2018-Ontario-Election
https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

Last time: http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/

Compare the map on the last link to the maps on the other links.

[ON Progressive]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

[King of Kensington]

One interesting thing to note in Durham Region that Whitby really didn't turn out to be that distinctive compared to Ajax and Pickering for NDP vote.  Since these suburbs are all pretty similar (except for Whitby being in the Oshawa CMA) I guess it isn't really surprising.

[King of Kensington]

Also, all the GTA 905 ridings where the PCs got over 50% were in York Region.

[Hatman 🍁]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

The rest of the north still uses the 1996 federal riding boundaries, so they're not identical either.

[Krago]

Until Doug Ford eliminates the political subsidies in his first budget, Ontario taxpayers will be paying $129.22 every three months to help Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda.

Every political party that gets 2% in a riding is eligible for an allowance.  There is $6,250 allocated for each riding, divided proportionally to the votes cast.  In addition, political parties getting over 2% province-wide get 63.6 cents per vote received each quarter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scarborough SW seems wierd on that list. Why so much of a swing?

It's historically very strong NDP territory where they've underperformed a lot in recent provincial elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, the Liberals lost 20 points, with about half going to the Tories and half going to the NDP.

Basically the second shoe dropping as regards the Liberal collapse flipped the election back into PC majority territory. Unfortunate for the province, but (ahem) probably for the best for the NDP...

[Krago]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

The rest of the north still uses the 1996 federal riding boundaries, so they're not identical either.

There are 111 co-terminous ridings in Southern Ontario, federally and provincially.

In Northern Ontario, there are 10 ridings federally and 13 provincially.  The provincial boundaries for 9 of the seats were set by the 1992-3 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario, while the remaining 4 seats were determined last year by the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, it's pretty clear that Wynne's concession cost her party official status. Genius move!

[136or142]

There are still 9 polls outstanding.

Regional breakdown, using my regional breakdowns.  Adjust accordingly.

Toronto 25 ridings  
Beaches-East York, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Eglington-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke North, Humber River Black Creek (York West), Parkdale-High Park, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Centre, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough North, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Scarborough Southwest, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto-St Paul's, University-Rosedale, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-Weston

Total Votes: 1,097,912
P.C: 359,177, 32.7%
NDP: 400,180, 36.4
Liberal: 287,144, 26.2
Green: 33,248, 3.0
Other: 18,164

GTA (905), 27 ridings,
Ajax, Aurora-Oak Ridges, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Durham, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Mississauga Centre, Missassauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Oshawa, Pickering-Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, Thornhill, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Whitby  
2 polls are outstanding in Newmarket-Aurora, and 2 polls are outstanding in Oakville

Total votes: 1,264,598
P.C: 578,385, 45.7%
NDP: 338,895, 26.8%
Liberal: 286,372, 22.6%
Green: 38,573, 3.1%
Other: 22,373

Ridings north of Toronto (around Lake Simcoe) 9 ridings
Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Dufferin-Caledon, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Simcoe-Grey, Simcoe North, York-Simcoe

Total votes: 460,451
P.C: 240,046, 52.1%
NDP: 113,710, 24.7
Liberal: 59,111, 12.8
Green: 40,493, 8.8
Other, 7,091

Hamilton and area, 7 ridings
Burlington, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Milton

Total votes: 338,993
P.C: 114,636, 33.8%
NDP: 140,130, 41.3
Liberal: 60,935 18.0
Green: 15,920 4.7
Other: 7,372

Kitchener to Niagara 16 ridings
Brantford-Brant, Cambridge, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Huron-Bruce, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, St. Catherines, Waterloo, Wellington-Halton Hills

Total votes: 823,922
P.C: 341,770, 41.5%
NDP: 290,671 35.3
Liberal: 108,715, 13.2
Green: 68,964, 8.4
Other: 13,802

London to Windsor 10 ridings
Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London-Fanshawe, London North Centre, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West

Total votes: 494,681
P.C: 200,854, 40.6%
NDP: 224,501, 45.4
Liberal: 43,430, 8.8
Green: 19,103, 3.9
Other: 6,793

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

Eastern Ontario, 11 ridings
Bay of Quinte, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Nipissing, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Peterborough-Kawartha, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry-Glenross (Put me on the Cadillac Board!)

Total votes: 546,244
P.C: 265,118, 48.5%
NDP: 153,422, 28.1
Liberal: 97,393, 17.8
Green: 22,141, 4.1
Other: 8,170

North (and centre), 11 ridings
Algoma-Manitoulin, Kenora-Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Timmins, Kiiwetinoong, Mushkegowuk-James Bay
5 polls are still outstanding in Mushkegowuk-James Bay

Total votes: 273,677
P.C: 74,622, 27.3%
NDP: 133,881, 48.9
Liberal: 48,692, 17.8
Green: 8,679, 3.2%
Other: 7,803

I might be slightly off with 'other' I added the 'other' candidates riding by riding in my head

A bit odd, I think.  The worst region for the Green Party is the city of Toronto (though not by much.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

The rest of the north still uses the 1996 federal riding boundaries, so they're not identical either.

There are 111 co-terminous ridings in Southern Ontario, federally and provincially.

In Northern Ontario, there are 10 ridings federally and 13 provincially.  The provincial boundaries for 9 of the seats were set by the 1992-3 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario, while the remaining 4 seats were determined last year by the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission.

Was the commission really done three to four years earlier than the boundaries were put into law?

[ON Progressive]

The London to Windsor numbers are ridiculous. The Liberals didn't even break double digits!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

[ON Progressive]

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

Was it actually better than 1990?

[136or142]

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

Was it actually better than 1990?

Yes, same seat.  The CBC commentator was wrong yesterday.  She said the NDP had held Ottawa Centre 'for 30 years (or so) up until 1995'. In fact, Evelyn Gigantes was defeated in 1987 and reelected in 1990.

[136or142]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

[PeteB]

Not to rain on the NDP parade, but I am very disappointed in their result, as the main opposition hope to Doug Ford (ABF vote).  Yes they did as expected in Niagara and Toronto but Eastern ON and the 905 were writeoffs.  But those were somewhat expected.  But what on earth happened to their vote in the SW and N ON?

In the SW, ridings that should have been easily won - Cambridge, Kitchener Conestoga, Kitchener South Hespeler, Brantford Brant, Chatham Kent Leamington, Sarnia Lambton, all went PC?!? I kept saying that the NDP was overextending by talking about places like Oxford and EML, instead of shoring up support in their core targets, and this unfortunately proves it.  I expected Guelph to be won by the Greens, but not with nearly 50% of the vote, and the NDP in third place.  The North was supposed to be a sweep for the NDP, and it didn't quite work out.  I am less surprised there, because I expected Liberals to hold Thunder Bay SN and the PCs to hold SSM, but Kenora was certainly winnable. 

Don't get me wrong - from a purely partisan point of view, the NDP did great - they went from a third party to official opposition, have 40 MPPs and a chance to prove themselves while the Liberals are decimated.  But, from an ABF point of view, they didn't do so well.  And really, as Kelly McParland (certainly no friend of the NDP) said in the National Post today, if they can't win against a Doug Ford and a wiped out Liberal party, when do they think they will take over?

[Oryxslayer]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

Mind breaking them down by the EKOS regions?

Here:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/


Regions broken down on a map:

[Krago]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

The rest of the north still uses the 1996 federal riding boundaries, so they're not identical either.

There are 111 co-terminous ridings in Southern Ontario, federally and provincially.

In Northern Ontario, there are 10 ridings federally and 13 provincially.  The provincial boundaries for 9 of the seats were set by the 1992-3 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario, while the remaining 4 seats were determined last year by the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission.

Was the commission really done three to four years earlier than the boundaries were put into law?

Correction: 1994-5 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario

The federal government (under two different parties) attempted twice to suspend the redistribution process.  Once they were successful, while the second time they were thwarted by the Senate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My God can the tedious concern trolling.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is Horwath going to stay as NDP leader?