Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[lilTommy]

Quick question, why does Niagara Falls vote solidly NDP provincially but still vote Tory federally, even in 2015? It seems like quite a discrepancy given they have the same exact boundaries. Does the MPP/MP have a big personal vote that cancels out the natural lean of the riding?

My opinion, Yes. Both the Conservative MP and the NDP MPP are both personally popular; In Nicholson's (MP) case, so much so that the riding bucked the federal trend of Liberal in 2015.
The riding though tended to be a swing riding, both Federally and Provincially (at least since 99), the city tends to be more Progressive while NOTL and the suburban/rural areas more PC/CON, Fort Eerie has an NDP base. The riding has a relatively strong base for all three parties, except ON18 where the OLP vote just cratered to 9%. But FED2015 the NDP still won 20%.
NF riding went Liberal then Conservative with the changes in gov't federally, while provincially the Liberals won in 03 when they became gov't. Provincially Craitor, the former OLP MPP, was generally also very personally popular and seen as a left-leaning Liberal. Gates was a folksy popular city Councillor and won for the NDP, which was considered a huge gain for the Party.
 

[adma]

Quick question, why does Niagara Falls vote solidly NDP provincially but still vote Tory federally, even in 2015? It seems like quite a discrepancy given they have the same exact boundaries. Does the MPP/MP have a big personal vote that cancels out the natural lean of the riding?

My opinion, Yes. Both the Conservative MP and the NDP MPP are both personally popular; In Nicholson's (MP) case, so much so that the riding bucked the federal trend of Liberal in 2015.
The riding though tended to be a swing riding, both Federally and Provincially (at least since 99), the city tends to be more Progressive while NOTL and the suburban/rural areas more PC/CON, Fort Eerie has an NDP base. The riding has a relatively strong base for all three parties, except ON18 where the OLP vote just cratered to 9%. But FED2015 the NDP still won 20%.
NF riding went Liberal then Conservative with the changes in gov't federally, while provincially the Liberals won in 03 when they became gov't. Provincially Craitor, the former OLP MPP, was generally also very personally popular and seen as a left-leaning Liberal. Gates was a folksy popular city Councillor and won for the NDP, which was considered a huge gain for the Party.

IIRC the federal Liberal campaign in '15 was reported to be inept as well--and surely, the post-Craitor cratering of the provincial party must have hurt.  (In fact, the OLP had already cratered to 14% in '14--that election's worst result?--largely because the newly-byelected Wayne Gates sucked up all the left-energy.)

But let's remember, too, that NF's been a federal Grit stronghold in the past--most notably with Judy Lamarsh in the 1960s--and it was pretty solid Liberal provincially until the Rae landslide.

In fact, that's what makes Ontario so electorally interesting; that there are so many circumstances and hypotheticals where all three major parties can be actually or potentially competitive on virtually the same turf--it's not at all like the more inflexible GOP-Dem or Lab-Tory polarizations prevailing elsewhere.  (And remember, too, that in *municipal* politics--where, in Ontario, party tickets don't "officially" exist--progressives can rule over conservative turf and vice versa.  After all, except for one byelection the Ontario PCs never won a single 416 seat within Rob Ford's mayoral tenure.)