Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[King of Kensington]

Brampton

NDP  72,755  38.9%
PCs  70,417  37.7%
Liberals  34,705  18.6%

Mississauga

PCs  113,787  41.6%
Liberals  75,121  27.4%
NDP  69,637  25.4%

York Region*

PCs  224,639  53%
Liberals  97,523  23%
NDP  77,468  18.3%

* excludes York-Simcoe riding

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if the controversy over the PC nomination in  Etobicoke-Centre hurt them.

Possibly, but it also fits in with the wider pattern of the Liberals holding up 'better' in ridings with substantial concentrations of higher professionals/managers. Very post-Coalition LibDemmy, actually...

[King of Kensington]

You can see some "LibDem-ification" in DVW, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Mississauaga-Lakeshore, Oakville and Orleans.

To clarify further, these are all affluent suburban ridings where there's aversion to voting for the "workers' party" but also showed some hesitation to fully embracing the PCs under Ford.  Hence the Liberal vote held up and were clearly the alternative to the PCs.

A riding like St. Paul's is also filled with higher professionals/managers with a more business-oriented outlook but it's also more urban and home to a lot of the progressive middle classes too.

[Boston Bread]

I made maps comparing the CPC's results in 2011 and 2015 compared to the PC's results in 2018.
Each shade represents an additional 5% swing.
Red is away from Ford's PCs and blue is toward Ford's PCs.

Credit to Filuwaúrdjan for the base maps.

2011


2015


It was surprising that Ford overperformed Harper 2011 in Toronto, even in most of Old Toronto.

[Hatman 🍁]

I made maps comparing the CPC's results in 2011 and 2015 compared to the PC's results in 2018.
Each shade represents an additional 5% swing.
Red is away from Ford's PCs and blue is toward Ford's PCs.
Northern Ontario could not be included due do the different riding shapes.

Credit to Filuwaúrdjan for the base maps.

2011


2015


It was surprising that Ford overperformed Harper 2011 in Toronto, even in most of Old Toronto.

For the sake of completion, here are the 2011 numbers in Northern Ontario for the Tories:

Algoma—Manitoulin      38.26%
Kenora—Rainy River      48.13%
Kiiwetinoong      28.52%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay      14.20%
Nickel Belt      29.34%
Nipissing      36.41%
Sault Ste. Marie      40.33%
Sudbury      26.78%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan      26.75%
Thunder Bay—Superior North      28.66%
Timiskaming—Cochrane      31.93%
Timmins       33.91%

And 2015...

Algoma—Manitoulin      25.50%
Kenora—Rainy River      34.71%
Kiiwetinoong      15.09%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay      16.00%
Nickel Belt      18.50%
Nipissing      29.79%
Sault Ste. Marie      31.40%
Sudbury      19.93%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan      19.82%
Thunder Bay—Superior North      16.44%
Timiskaming—Cochrane      20.74%
Timmins       22.17%

[Boston Bread]

Thanks Hatman, I filled in Northern Ontario in my post now.

[Oryxslayer]

What exactly happened that made the Nipissing ridings swing hard right - especially Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke which had one of the best Tory margins in the province? Is it just normally so blue that a modest PC lead means a large swing, or is there something else going on...

[MaxQue]

What exactly happened that made the Nipissing ridings swing hard right - especially Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke which had one of the best Tory margins in the province? Is it just normally so blue that a modest PC lead means a large swing, or is there something else going on...

Nipissing has a very popular PC MPP (Vic Videli, who was the interim leader after Brown resigned) and there is some left-overs from Mike Harris era (he was the local MPP).

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke has a lower than usual Federal lead for Conservatives due to a former MP running as Independent and taking 11%. Also, the MPP is a bland son of a former MPP, while the MP is a controversial ultra social conservative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Fideli is the former mayor of North Bay. Very popular there. Nipissing is typically a Liberal riding, though you wouldn't know it from Thursday's results. I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP wins it next time though, with the riding joining the rest of Northern Ontario.

And yeah, Renfrew's MP is one of the most right wing MPs in the country. I've met hardcore Conservatives there who voted Liberal last election because of her. The riding is very right wing; it is mostly rural (and has a few Ottawa exurbs like Arnprior) and has a high military population. The only non-conservative part of the riding is Deep River where a lot of scientists live because of the Chalk River nuclear plant.

[adma]

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke has a lower than usual Federal lead for Conservatives due to a former MP running as Independent and taking 11%. Also, the MPP is a bland son of a former MPP, while the MP is a controversial ultra social conservative.

Another place where an independent figured into the 2011 totals: Simcoe-Grey (where MP Helena Guergis was on the ballot)

[DC Al Fine]

Kitchener-Waterloo is trending away from the Tories very quickly. I started following politics in the mid 2000's. I still find it kind of weird to see the Tories doing so poorly in mid sized cities while doing so well in ethnic Toronto suburbs.

[DabbingSanta]

Terence Kernaghan   NDP   796   45.3%
Susan Truppe   Conservative   564   32.1%
Kate Graham   Liberal   307   17.5%
Carol Dyck   Green   91   5.2%
other votes   various   N/A   

NDP won my neighborhood polls by around +13, conservative poll wins were north and west of Windermere & Adelaide. Not surprised they won LNC looking at the poll by poll map. Old North also voted overwhelmingly NDP.

[ON Progressive]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kitchener-Waterloo is trending away from the Tories very quickly. I started following politics in the mid 2000's

It was only held provincially because of a popular incumbent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RNP was historically Liberal territory o/c - the Renfrew part particularly - but their vote has evaporated there much as it has similarly historical Liberal territory in the south of the province, though it happened earlier in RNP and the direction of travel was even more uniformly to the Right.

But, and I'm sure much more importantly, it's where the lead character in Mulholland Drive was from! Specifically Deep River.

[DC Al Fine]

Kitchener-Waterloo is trending away from the Tories very quickly. I started following politics in the mid 2000's

It was only held provincially because of a popular incumbent.

Kitchener-Waterloo is also a name for the metropolitan area.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kitchener-Waterloo is trending away from the Tories very quickly. I started following politics in the mid 2000's

It was only held provincially because of a popular incumbent.

Kitchener-Waterloo is also a name for the metropolitan area.

Both core ridings of which were voting solidly Liberal as late as 2006. Eh. We have to be careful about 'trends' - some things stick and some don't.

[Hatman 🍁]

RNP was historically Liberal territory o/c - the Renfrew part particularly

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

Part of the reason why Renfrew and the SW were historically Liberal was that the OLP was the right wing party in Ontario for so long, but that doesn't explain why it went Liberal federally. I wish I knew more about historical voting trends; does anyone know the reasoning?

[Hash]

Renfrew County has a large Polish [Kashubian] (around 10%) -- in Madawaska Valley Twp. (Barry's Bay/Wilno), French as well as German, Irish and Scottish population. Of even greater relevance to historical voting patterns, it has a large Catholic population (still around 40% in 2011), which contrasts with most other counties in Eastern Ontario.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican? (i.e. I dimly recall this to be the case and I'm assuming you probably know?)

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

[Hatman 🍁]

Renfrew County has a large Polish [Kashubian] (around 10%) -- in Madawaska Valley Twp. (Barry's Bay/Wilno), French as well as German, Irish and Scottish population. Of even greater relevance to historical voting patterns, it has a large Catholic population (still around 40% in 2011), which contrasts with most other counties in Eastern Ontario.

I figured it might have something to do with Catholics. There's a Catholic mission in Cobermere (Madonna House) where my Catholic friends dragged me to one summer to check out.  That area is very conservative these days. We stopped in Wilno on the way back, and my friend left his shudder shades (this was like 10 years ago) at the Wilno tavern.

ANYWAY, what about Southwestern Ontario? That area is much more socially conservative and very Protestant (except Essex).

[Hatman 🍁]

And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Ahh, perhaps that's the reasoning.

I also wonder if tobacco has anything to do with it, as much of the southwest makes up the province's 'tobacco belt'. Maybe the PCs brought in some anti-tobacco legislation or something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The parallels to rural Liberalism over here - in the West Country and Mid Wales especially - are interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

The riding's name irks me. The part of the riding that is in Nipissing District (South Algonquin and a chunk of Algonquin Park) makes up 1% of the population of the riding, and is very much isolated from the rest of Nipissing District.

Having Pembroke in there is fine, I guess since it's not technically part of Renfrew County, but I'd drop it too.

[DC Al Fine]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.