Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[Jeppe]

Who’s going to be the interim leader for the Liberals now?

4 cabinet members survived, possibly 5.

Nathalie Des Rosiers in Ottawa-Vanier, Marie France-Lalonde in Orleans, Michael Coteau in Don Valley East, and Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay. Mitzie Hunter’s race in Scarborough-Guildwood is still uncalled. John Fraser in Ottawa South is the only backbencher to survive.

[MAINEiac4434]

Who’s going to be the interim leader for the Liberals now?

4 cabinet members survived, possibly 5.

Nathalie Des Rosiers in Ottawa-Vanier, Marie France-Lalonde in Orleans, Michael Coteau in Don Valley East, and Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay. Mitzie Hunter’s race in Scarborough-Guildwood is still uncalled. John Fraser in Ottawa South is the only backbencher to survive.

Gravelle is the only one representing a remotely non-urban area. That may help him.

Scard-Rouge Park called for tories.

Only key Eng-Lawrence left.

PCs have an 750-vote lead, they're gonna hold it unless this poll is literally in Colle's living room.

[Oryxslayer]

Scard-Rouge Park called for tories.

Only key Eng-Lawrence left.

PCs have an 750-vote lead, they're gonna hold it unless this poll is literally in Colle's living room.

It was closer and more polls were left last I checked, yeah there isn't a chance of a Lib comeback.

Edit - 77 polls in, not called though for PCs.

[Oryxslayer]

So final totals:

PC - 76, 40.51%
NDP - 40 (assuming the safe north seat), 33.57%
Lib - 7, 19.57%
Green -1, 4.61%

[MaxQue]

Who’s going to be the interim leader for the Liberals now?

4 cabinet members survived, possibly 5.

Nathalie Des Rosiers in Ottawa-Vanier, Marie France-Lalonde in Orleans, Michael Coteau in Don Valley East, and Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay. Mitzie Hunter’s race in Scarborough-Guildwood is still uncalled. John Fraser in Ottawa South is the only backbencher to survive.

Gravelle is the only one representing a remotely non-urban area. That may help him.

Scard-Rouge Park called for tories.

Only key Eng-Lawrence left.

PCs have an 750-vote lead, they're gonna hold it unless this poll is literally in Colle's living room.

Gravelle is 69 and went on leave for depression issues. I don't see him going for leadership.
Des Rosiers and Lalonde are young, but I doubt picking a Francophone leader will help them much outside of Ottawa.
Coteau and Hunter are fine, but is Ontario ready for a black party leader?
For Fraser, I truly doubt choosing a McGuinty staffer is a good idea.

[Oryxslayer]

So final totals:

PC - 76, 40.51%
NDP - 40 (assuming the safe north seat), 33.57%
Lib - 7, 19.57%
Green -1, 4.61%

Mapped

[Oryxslayer]

Who’s going to be the interim leader for the Liberals now?

4 cabinet members survived, possibly 5.

Nathalie Des Rosiers in Ottawa-Vanier, Marie France-Lalonde in Orleans, Michael Coteau in Don Valley East, and Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay. Mitzie Hunter’s race in Scarborough-Guildwood is still uncalled. John Fraser in Ottawa South is the only backbencher to survive.

Gravelle is the only one representing a remotely non-urban area. That may help him.

Scard-Rouge Park called for tories.

Only key Eng-Lawrence left.

PCs have an 750-vote lead, they're gonna hold it unless this poll is literally in Colle's living room.

Gravelle is 69 and went on leave for depression issues. I don't see him going for leadership.
Des Rosiers and Lalonde are young, but I doubt picking a Francophone leader will help them much outside of Ottawa.
Coteau and Hunter are fine, but is Ontario ready for a black party leader?
For Fraser, I truly doubt choosing a McGuinty staffer is a good idea.

I mean, I'm not so sure about the interim leader, but I assume the HAVE to pick someone outside the chamber right now and just send him or her to Don Valley West to win Wynne's seat in the by-election right? it's the only hope the party has of getting the kind of leader immediately that can help right the parties wrongs.

Also, it looks like the NDP structural advantage won't really come into play. If this was full proportional, the NDP would have won 42 seats with their current vote share. Assuming a hold in Kiiwetinoog, they would have 40 overall.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Once the NDP gets more votes than the Liberals, what is the purpose of Liberal Party.  The NDP will always promise more than the Liberals. SO, if you want more services, you would probably vote NDP.  If your goal is to control spending and government, you wou would most likely vote PC.  

You would think that, except Ontario is full of left-of-center well-to-do suburban types in a similar fashion to the Acela corridor suburban democrats and "limousine liberals." There could have been a change if the Libs ended up backing a minority govt, which would have seen them collapse further, but with 7 seats and a opposition role, the Libs will probably be back. Just like in 2011.

If they come back I expect they will either replace the NDP AS THE opposition, if the PCs were to be re-elected or become the government at the expense of both The PCs and NDP.  

[adma]

Are you joking? Obviously all things are possible in Canada, but this is a horrific result for them - they're left with a random string of locally popular timeservers, which is not a good sort of caucus to have at that size. They are going to have to battle very hard to remain relevant before they can think of recovery.

Though who knows; if a viable byelection transpires before long, they could campaign on a return-us-to-official-party-status platform--that's how Andrea Horwath got into Queen's Park, after all...

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

[henster]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

[136or142]

but with 7 seats and a opposition role, the Libs will probably be back. Just like in 2011.

Are you joking? Obviously all things are possible in Canada, but this is a horrific result for them - they're left with a random string of locally popular timeservers, which is not a good sort of caucus to have at that size. They are going to have to battle very hard to remain relevant before they can think of recovery.

3 in Eastern Ontario (Orleans, Ottawa South and Ottawa Vanier)  3  in Toronto (Don Valley East, Don Valley West and Scarborough-Guildwood) and 1 in the North (Thunder Bay-Superior North).

I disagree they are 'random,' these are most of the strongest liberal ridings in Ontario and they are mostly clustered.

[Harlow]

And this is why despite all the complaints about it, I like the two party system in the US. So frustrating to see RW Govt's take power because of a fractured left wing.

The problem isn't a multi-party system. The problem is an outdated and disproportionate first-past-the-post voting system.

[Hatman 🍁]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

[136or142]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Doesn't Harden support BDSM?

[Oryxslayer]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Wait, does this mean mainstreet is accepted as a logical Canadian pollster again?!

[Arkansas Yankee]

Good night for me and my PC friends.  Wish them well.

You should not begrudge me the good night, as we all expect an Atlas red wave in the US this November.  

Still like to see the NDP KNOCKED BELOW 40 seats.

[Holmes]

Good night for me and my PC friends.  Wish them well.

You should not begrudge me the good night, as we all expect an Atlas red wave in the US this November.  

Still like to see the NDP KNOCKED BELOW 40 seats.

They'll get 40 with Kiiwetinoong. Besides, is it really being "knocked down" when they gained seats?

[Jeppe]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Doesn't Harden support BDSM?

It’s impolite to ask about a politician’s bedroom preferences, y’know.

[King of Kensington]

OK, from my progressive viewpoint: F***

Some other observations:

1. Ford actually under-performed in much of  "Ford Nation" (Raymond Cho and Doug himself being exceptions).  Had the NDP vote not dropped off, they could have won a few seats in Scarborough.

2. Ford did very well in blue collar SW Ontario in spite of the alleged appeal of the "steeltown scrapper" who was supposed to dominate the region (Chatham, Sarnia, even Essex being close) in the region.  Much of the "Hudak went too far" demographic swung back to Ford.

3. NDP made their biggest gains among the "metropolitan left" and highly educated voters and probably did quite well among South Asian and Black voters.  Their "WWC" gains were pretty minimal.

4. My York Region hypothesis proved right, with some very big swings there.  Peel and Durham PC pickups were more based on vote-splitting than romping victories a la York Region.  Also, Oakville proved more Ford-averse than Woodbridge (as I thought it would).

5. Ottawa doesn't like Ford much.

[Hatman 🍁]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Doesn't Harden support BDSM?

So?

Nothing wrong with some ideological diversity in the NDP caucus. Doesn't hurt the Tories one bit.

[Oryxslayer]

OK, from my progressive viewpoint: F***

Some other observations:

1. Ford actually under-performed in much of  "Ford Nation" (Raymond Cho and Doug himself being exceptions).  Had the NDP vote not dropped off, they could have won a few seats in Scarborough.

2. Ford did very well in blue collar SW Ontario in spite of the alleged appeal of the "steeltown scrapper" who was supposed to dominate the region (Chatham, Sarnia, even Essex being close) in the region.  Much of the "Hudak went too far" demographic swung back to Ford.

3. NDP made their biggest gains among the "metropolitan left" and highly educated voters and probably did quite well among South Asian and Black voters.  Their "WWC" gains were pretty minimal.

4. My York Region hypothesis proved right, with some very big swings there.  Peel and Durham PC pickups were more based on vote-splitting than romping victories a la York Region.  Also, Oakville proved more Ford-averse than Woodbridge (as I thought it would).

5. Ottawa doesn't like Ford much.

This one is important - I count 4, maybe even 5 seats the NDP left on the table in the South, which they should have easily swept. St. Cathrine's remained uncalled for a few hours.

Also the libs. They did much better then expectations ( which isn't saying much) and there were a good 3-4 seats they could have held with a handful more votes. Probably blunted the NDP sword.

[136or142]

At the beginning of the campaign I wrote that I thought the NDP could win 58 ridings (the 20 they held) and 38 others.  Of the net 20 ridings they gained (assuming the win in Kiiwentinoong) all of them were on my list. The NDP lost Kenora-Rainy River previously held by Sarah Campbell, I know there were boundary changes.

The new NDP caucus contains 20 men and 20 women.  These are the new NDP MPPs

Toronto
1.Davenport, Marit Stiles, Former ACTRA National Director of Policy and Communications, Consultant, Federal NDP President, School Trustee 2014-

2.Humber River-Black Creek (York West), Tom Rakocevic, Toronto City Councillor Anthony Peruzza Executive Assistant

3.University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell, TTC Riders Executive Director, Former University Lecturer in Advocacy and Communications

4.York South-Weston, Faisal Hassan, Former M.P Assistant, Former Somali Canadian Radio Talk Show Host, Author

5.Toronto Centre, Suze Morrison, Indigenous Friendship Society Communications Coordinator, Communications Consultant

6.Scarborough South West, Doly Begum, Keep Hydro Public Policy Coordinator

7.Spadina-Fort York, Chris Glover, Social Science Department Professor, School Trustee 2010-

8.Toronto-St. Paul's, Jill Andrew, Fashion Educator, Speaker and Columnist, Co-Owner Glad Day Book Shop

9.Beaches-East York, Rima Berns McGown, Diaspora Studies Professor (Muslim Societies and Culture)

905
1.Brampton Centre, Sara Singh, Public Policy Instructor, NPO Head 'Broadening Horizons'

2.Brampton North, Kevin Yarde, Weather Network Host

Eastern Ontario
1.Ottawa Centre, Joel Hardens, Canadian Federation of Students Social Policy Researcher, Local Community Organizer, Author

2.Kingston and the Islands, Ian Arthur, Chez Piggy Restaurant Executive Chef

Hamilton
1.Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Sandy Shaw, Hamilton Port Authority Director, Former First Ontario Credit Union Director of Social Responsibility, Former Credit Union Chair

London to Windsor
1.London North Centre, Terrence Kernaghan, Elementary School Teacher/Librarian, Union Local Executive

Kitchener to Niagara
1.Kitchener Centre, Laurier Mae Lindo, Wilfrid Laurier University Director of Diversity and Equity, Former Instructor, Diversity and Equity Consultant, Professional Singer

2.St. Catherines, Jennie Stevens, Hotel Dieu Shaver Frontline Service Worker, City Councillor 2003-

North
1.Sudbury, Jamie West, Smelter Flash Furnace Operator, Sudbury and District Labour Council President

2.Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Judith Monteith-Farrell, PSAC Regional Representative

3.Mushkegowak-James Bay, Guy Borgouin, United Steelworker's Local President

4.Kiiwentinoong, Sol Mamakwa, Co-Chair Sioux Lookout Meno Ya Win Health Centre, Nishnawki-Aksi Nation Lead Health Advisor

New MPPs in NDP ridings
1.Parkdale-High Park (Toronto, Cheri Di Novo riding), Bhutila Karpoche, MPP Cheri Di Novo Executive Assistant)

2.Niagara Centre (Cindy Forster Riding), Jeff Burch, Niagara Folk Arts Multicultural Centre Executive Director, St. Catherines City Councillor 2006-2014, 2014 Mayoral Candidate, lost 40.2-34.6%

3.Brampton East (Jagmeet Singh Riding, sort of) Gurratan Singh, Criminal Defense Lawyer and firm owner, Pop Up Restaurant 'Grand Trunk Road' Co-Owner

[136or142]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Doesn't Harden support BDSM?

So?

Nothing wrong with some ideological diversity in the NDP caucus. Doesn't hurt the Tories one bit.

Would I be wrong in assuming that Hardens loves the Cuba and Venezuela governments though?

I have no love for the terrorist Netanyahu or Likud, but I don't know what the obsession is with some on the left with Israel, as if Israel is the worst nation in the world.  I think it's completely irrational.  If you want to protest against a nation by not buying their products, what about China?  I mean, if you want to protest, make an actual personal sacrifice. 

[trebor204]

Results in Kiiwetinoong are coming in:

NDP has 54% with 29/52 polls reporting.