Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Antonio the Sixth]

Trend map from 2016.



The fact that almost every county swung to Jones far below the average (the statewide swing was 29.3 points, but most counties are in the low 20s) suggests that turnout was a really big part of the story.

Also, LOL Lee County.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Trend map from 2016.



The fact that almost every county swung to Jones far below the average (the statewide swing was 29.3 points, but most counties are in the low 20s) suggests that turnout was a really big part of the story.

Also, LOL Lee County.

Love that Dem trend in the Northwest corner of the state. Industrial, unionized area. Jones did better there than any Senate candidate since Susan Parker in 2002 and better than any Presidential one since Al Gore in 2000 (from neighboring TN).

I like seeing them improve with those voters as well, I really hope it continues outside of the state as well.

I personally find it funny however, that Etowah County (Moore's hometown) was one of the only other rural ones that trended to the dems. 

Proof that the people who know Moore personally are the most likely to hate him...

[Antonio the Sixth]

what was the result by CD?

It was posted on page 5. See below. Despite winning statewide, Jones only won one CD (AL-07, the majority black CD).

Nice to see that Alabama is just as gerrymandered as more competitive GOP-controll States.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

NYT has a chart showing how the tally went (scroll down)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

NYT has a chart showing how the tally went (scroll down)

I can't believe the needle only had Moore winning for 30 minutes, it felt like an eternity.

It really did...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you know the diierence?

I don't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know it's a special election, but are the results ever going to be uploaded on Atlas? It would make my life a lot easier.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone else still in disbelief about this election?

I am.

I think I look at the wikipedia entry for Doug Jones twice a day and smile.

I still have the tab with the NYT results page open on my browser. I occasionally scroll down to the projected margin chart.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It always bugged me that regular swing/trend measures don't take into account the effect of differential turnout. Given that it was such a big part of this race's result, I tried to figure out how to measure it.

I came up with what I call "Composition-Adjusted Swing/Trend". It's not very intuitive to explain but it strikes me as the fairest available measure. Basically, I take Jones' margin of victory/defeat in a given county and inflate or deflate it based on how that county's share of the total vote has changed over time. For example, if Jones won a county by 30 points but that county went from making up 10% of the total vote to 12%, then I inflate it to 36 points. In almost all cases, this works to Jones' advantage: most Jones counties made up a larger share of the vote than they did in earlier elections, and most Moore counties a smaller share (although there are exceptions). Then, I simply calculate the swing and trend from the previous election as I would normally.

Here's what the trend maps for the two most commented benchmarks look like when I use this measure.





What I take away from this is that big cities really made the difference for Jones: these swings in Jefferson, Madison, Shelby and Tuscaloosa were really massive. By contrast, rural Alabama was pretty underwhelming, including the Black Belt. Thus, the narrative that made this election all about Black turnout seems a bit misleading to me (although in such a close election, everything could be said to have made a difference).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

...wow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course Moore is doing that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When is AL going to certify the results ?

Meeting begins at 2 PM ET

There we go.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a statewide breakdown of write-ins somewhere?

[Antonio the Sixth]

49.96559701% of the vote went to Jones.

Rip absolute majority.

So close! Damn.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't think of any statewide GOPer in Alabama who is any better than him.

Shelby.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Roy Moore's Jewish lawyer voted for Doug Jones, raised money for his campaign

hahahaha priceless

[Antonio the Sixth]

Senator-Elect Doug Jones is now Senator Doug Jones.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01/roy_moore_accusers_home_burns.html

The home of Moore accuser, Tina Johnson, has burned down. Being investigated as an arson.

Oh Christ...

I hope the culprits are found and punished with the full force of the law.