Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[NOVA Green]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

Well honestly the numbers seem a bit sketch all things considered, but I think we can both agree that both U of A and Auburn College students turned out and voted in large numbers for Doug Jones....

Where was Roy Moore during the Iron Bowl over Thanksgiving Weekend, and did it cost him the election?



As I posted elsewhere the band Alabama's anthem "Song of the South" would be a be a key part of the musical soundtrack for this special election"

Lyrics Below:


Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Cotton on the roadside, cotton in the ditch
We all picked the cotton but we never got rich
Daddy was a veteran, a southern democrat
They oughta get a rich man to vote like that

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Well somebody told us Wall Street fell
But we were so poor that we couldn't tell
Cotton was short and the weeds were tall
But Mr. Roosevelt's a gonna save us all

Well momma got sick and daddy got down
The county got the farm and they moved to town
Pappa got a job with the TVA
He bought a washing machine and then a Chevrolet

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Play it

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Song, song of the south

Gone, gone with the wind

Song, song of the south.
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth.
Song, song of the south.

Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth.

Sing it

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Song, song of the south
Sweet potato pie and I shut my mouth
Gone, gone with the wind
There ain't nobody looking back again

Here is Alabama's official music video, and I would strongly recommend some of y'all forking out a few bucks to buy a song or two, or even a couple CDs, like I did some 20 years back to support these artists.... and Hell if you're gonna' play in 'Bama better have a Fiddle in the Band (Sorry had to do a cross-over on the New South Southern Rock scene from the same time....)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHdXQAQHjd8

It's actually pretty clear that the coalition of young voters, African-American voters, and Upper-Income suburban voters that won the election for Doug Jones in 'Bama is now an extremely portable strategy in the Heart of Dixie, even without running against a Pedo-Creep like Moore....

Tennessee obviously springs to mind for US-Senate in '18, and who knows maybe Corker switches Parties and runs as a Democrat for Governor of that Great State, and does the reverse cross-over scene like Dick Shelby (US-SEN-R-AL) and Rick Perry (Texas) did back in the early '90s when Yellow Dawgs were bucking hard 'Pub....

As I posted elsewhere regarding some campaign ad the Jones campaign posted a week or so before the election that was factually inaccurate, the politics of the region from East Tex to SC, is and always has been a dirty knife-fightin' kind of region....

Doug Jones drew blood where it hit hardest, and now Roy Moore is probably crapping bricks waiting until the day that the Feds kick in his door to bring him to justice for his crimes....

There is a new sheriff in town, who actually believes in Law and Order and the Rule of Law, and regardless of how many decades back you committed the crime, you will face a jury of your peers or in heaven for your sins....

[NOVA Green]

So one last thought before I crash....

As I had posted elsewhere based upon polling numbers of White voters based upon religion affiliation, it appeared that Moore had a major issue, considering that only 60% of Alabama Whites consider themselves to be Evangelical Christians...

Jones was leading by some 20% among the 40% of White voters that don't consider themselves Evangelical Christians...

Needless to say there are a ton of Mainline Protestant and Catholic White voters in a heavily religious State like Alabama....

I mentioned elsewhere about the influence of the Cajun/ Catholic Vote in Metro Mobile, Moore's Anti-Semitic comments from a few months back, not to mention his wife's bizarre stunt last night where it appeared that she was accusing reports of being Jews and saying "But we have a best friend that is a Jew, our Lawyer", Mitt Romney jumping in a few days back to call out Moore on his crap....

Point is that going after every and all religious and ethnic minorities isn't a winning strategy, even in Alabama which in theory might be slightly more favorable because of both the high concentration of Evangelical Whites, as well as one of the most inelastic and polarized voting patterns by "Race", the dirty underside of Old Folks in 'Bama that still believe that George Wallace was the Man back in the days.

Honestly, thinking the religious vote is what sunk Moore more than anything else....

Interfaith communities against bigotry and intolerance and looking at the history of this dude, and basically say we'll go with the normal candidate in the race, or if we can't in moral conscience support the Democrat, we at least didn't vote for Creepo and yes that is a default to a Dem win, but hey he's the Cop on the side of law, as opposed to the crooked DA who violates the very law he was upholden to serve.

[NOVA Green]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

So it would be fans of UAB, South Alabama, Troy, Alabama A&M, Samford, or even those who favor Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc., rather than those who completely deny the existence of Football.

Yes, I probably messed up earlier.  That could reflect both transplants and non-football fans being more liberal than the rest of the state.

Also worth mentioning there are a decent chunk of Americans that aren't that crazy about College Football, but huge fans of Pro-Football....

Even in Football crazy Alabama, there going to be a decent chunk of folks who just casually follow the 'Ball games of the two big local teams, but not enough to consider themselves "fans"....

Also, it's worth noting that there are three other Division 1-A College Football teams from Alabama, which is actually remarkable for such a relatively low population State:

University of Alabama- Birmingham
University of South Alabama- Mobile
Troy University

The former two College Campus precincts voted heavily Democratic in 2016, and likely more working and Middle-Class with a larger African-American population than the traditional "White Elitist" schools like University of Alabama- Tuscaloosa and Auburn....

There's a whole separate thread I've been working on for Division 1-A Football starting with results by City, and then now moving down into results by Campus precincts for 2016, and hopefully will be able to hit 2012 results before too long....

I almost thought of fast-tracking Alabama Precinct results by Campus just for the 2017 Special US Senate Election, but still working back through methodically and haven't hit the SEC, Sunbelt, or US-Conf West yet...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.175

[NOVA Green]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you spent any time watching Fox News at all, you'd not be shocked in the slightest. They had anchors suggesting black people stole the 2008 election.

That's not particularly surprising, although a bit disgusting in the Modern Era, 53 years after we defeated the institutionalized White Supremacist Jim Crow rule in the deep South.

Not to do a moral equivalency type argument, but I still have a friend that claims that the 2004 election results in Ohio were hacked through the voting machines to cause W. to win reelection, despite all evidence to the contrary...

Totally irresponsible for news media outfits to be peddling false stories that challenge the integrity of the basic element of the ballot box, regardless of Partisan affiliation.

Most of us on Atlas know how SoS offices operate, and the County workers that do their jobs, and all of the checks and balances involved....

It's the *rigging of the game* designed to purge voters off the roles that is the biggest crime of all and striping people of their voting rights once again, all in the name of combating "voter fraud"

[NOVA Green]

Why did Jones make inroads in heavily white areas of Alabama. In Jackson County in mountainous NE part of state he got 30% Hillary got 17%. Franklin county he got 29% Hillary got 18%. This is deeply conservative Alabama.

Northern Alabama was the last refuge of White Southern Democratic voters within the State...

Al Gore won Jackson County 51-47 in '00.

Al Gore lost Franklin County 43-55 in '00.

I mentioned on another thread, likely a polling related thread on 'Bama previously about the "Yellow Dawgs starting to come home" and how Northern 'Bama overall would likely determine the results of the 2017 AL-SEN special election....

Obviously there is a bit more room to grow between Ancestral 'Dems in small town and rural parts of Northern 'Bama, and especially considering the Generational voting gap in '17 between those voters <45 and those >45.

This is also the heartlands of the Tennessee Valley Authority, that was an FDR era project to provide flood control and hydro-electricity to the entire region.

Needless to say it also provided a ton a decent paying Union jobs at prevailing wages, and the voters of the region are well aware of the history of the TVA and the dramatic improvement in what was an extremely impoverished and underdeveloped region of Alabama.

There is no contradiction between being an Evangelical Christian and also believing in a more progressive and egalitarian distribution of wealth.

A ton of folks were praying in Alabama after Sunday services before the election, and many the Night before asking their God if in all moral conscience they could vote for the creep (Moore), write in an alternative candidate, vote for a Democrat that they might have some issues with on his Pro-Choice and Pro-LGBTQ positions, or just simply stay home and let God and the will of the voters sort it all out...

As I have mentioned elsewhere 40% of Alabama Whites do not self-identify as White Evangelicals, and it appears that Jones won their votes by some 20% margins.

Additionally, I suspect that Moore's Anti-Semitic statements that popped up from a couple Months back a few days before the election (Which his Wife likely reinforced on Election Eve), not to mention Romney jumping in, likely was a major contributing factor in this Election, as well as the more known items such as huge African-American, Youth turnout, not to mention major swings among Suburban 'Pubs and 'Pub leaning voters in the largest Metro Areas of the State....

[NOVA Green]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not over 20,000, and they're not all going to Moore even if there are.

Nominate a decent human being next time if you want to have a chance at winning.

As I posted earlier there aren't that many out there that didn't arrive by election day (Maybe 3-5k?)

The other item to consider logically is that the vast majority of Military ballots are coming from age and ethnic backgrounds where Moore got his arse kicked, so even if hypothetically these small number of Military ballots narrowly lean Moore, to paraphrase some 'Dem Pol from the '90s "It's the Arithmetic stupid"....

The Officer Class tends to be quite a bit Older and Whiter in the US Military, and get their overseas Military ballots in the Mail early....

Enlisted Men and Women, don't necessarily have that same luxury.... "Rank Has it's Privileges" (RHIP) and all the crap.

Hell if Roy Moore is betting his Cowboy Hat on his experience in 'Nam, where he was so unpopular among Enlisted Men that even as an officer in the Marine Corp he was essentially potentially Ground Zero of a Fragging...

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fragging

Sorry, he was a piss ant Officer during the War, comes back home with ribbons on his chest, despite the condemnation of many who served with him.

Decides to leverage things after the War with all those medals and next thing you know runs for political office, and become a DA of a relatively small County, starts to harass and assault Minors when he's the top Law Enforcement official....

Alabama has a new Sheriff in town.... time to drain the swap and take the primeval ooze scraping off the boots, wipe them down careful and throw them in the Hazardous Waste special disposal container at the plant where they belong.

I smell a New South arising...

[NOVA Green]

We have voters bused in from Mississippi and vote totals transposed. Are there any other theories of how Moore didn't really lose?

You forgot the dead people who voted.

That's an old favorite.

I think Jesus Christ might have voted 12 times...

Running through the voter registration files from Franklin County Alabama, this guy called Jesus Christo, aka Juan Chavez, and Jesus Rodriguez voted multiple times.

Now after doing a bit more research on the Internet, I discovered that he worked at the largest employer in the County, the Pilgrim Poultry Processing plant, lost his finger in an industrial accident, was fired from his job despite following all safety protocols because he was considered a Union Agitator, and the Trump Administration went down hard on him because his paperwork was out of status even though he was married to a White Woman with two kids together both Born in the USA....

Now seriously, unless some of the Wackos out here try to post this as a legitimate report, it is 100% satire.

That being said, most Political observers and Atlas posters tend to focus on the "Black"/ "White" voting dichotomy in Alabama (And most parts of the South), while also neglecting the growing Latino section of the population that not only live and work in "Urban Areas" of the State/Region, but actually are most concentrated in the "Poultry Belt" of the Deep South....

How did Latino-Americans vote in Alabama in 2017?

We will likely never know without being able to at least pull up a few precinct numbers from heavily Latino-American precincts to compare/contrast with previous elections...

How did Asian-Americans vote in Alabama in 2017?

We will likely never know the numbers considering that we have a handful of Counties where this is 2-3% of the Vote (So precinct level data overlapped with Census Data is virtually meaningless).

How did Jewish-Americans and Muslim-Americans vote in Alabama in 2017?

We will likely never really know, although at least I can pull up a few precincts around Schuls in the larger Cities in 'Bama once the SoS results are certified to see those numbers.

How did Catholic voters in 'Bama vote in '17?

Again, we likely will never know the answer, but considering that 40% of Alabama White voters did not self-identify as White Evangelicals (60-40 Jones ), the White Catholic Vote was likely a significant component of the Jones win, especially around places like Mobile and Baldwin County (Cajun Vote ).

Despite the fact that 59% of Alabama voters 65+ voted Moore, which is actually remarkable considering the extremely large percentage of African-Americans 65+ that also vote with extremely high turnout (Civil Rights Movement anyone???), the numbers from those under the age of 45 should be shocking numbers for any 'Pub wanting to run for any office in the Great State of Alabama.

The days of the White Crazy Grandparents who backed George Wallace back in the days are:

"Gone with the Wind...   Nobody looking back again....  Song, song of the South, a sweet potato pie and a shut my mouth"

After we defeated the White Supremacist rule in the Jim Crow Deep South, and Jimmy Carter becomes Pres, the sneaky weasels devised another strategy...

LBJ famously said when he signed the Civil Rights Voting Act into law (Which he personally believed was a moral imperative as a 'Po White from the Hill Country of Central Tex, and honestly Kennedy's assassination gave him enough of a majority to get the job done).... 

Paraphrase here...

"We have lost the South for at least a Generation or more"

So what do the 'Pubs do under the "Party of Reagan"?

Double down on the White Evangelical Vote, so Reagan can pay his debts from the '76 failed Primary challenge against Ford, and successful victory in the 'Pub Primary in '80.

At this point the 'Pubs have front-loaded Southern Primaries (Other than the obvious IA and NH), which gives a disproportionate influence to what is actually a relatively smaller sliver of the US Electorate (Evangelical White Christians---- Sorry Dad    ).

So what happens when you have on the one hand a dramatic age voting gap between Senior Citizen voters and Middle-Age and Younger voters?

The flawed and failed strategy of Dick Nixon and Ronald Reagan to pander to the vestiges of the White Supremacist vote in the Deep South is rapidly coming to an end....

Might have worked as a medium term political strategy for quite a few decades (God, Gays, Guns) and the 'Pubs pretty much controlled the Presidency between '68-'04 with a few exceptions here and there, flipped the US-SEN and US-House over time, after many Working Class Southern Democrats and other parts of the Country rolled with that train for various reasons.

Reality is that as the old racist folks gradually passed away, religion replaced racism as the reason to vote 'Pub in state like Alabama, which Carter won in '76 and narrowly lost in '80 against Reagan.

Now, I get the anger against the whole Establishment "Country Club" Republican Party in Alabama and nationally at the hands of older, rural, and working-class Republicans out there...

The Textile manufacturing industry in NE ' Bama was virtually destroyed not that many years back.

Where were the 'Pubs to protect those jobs while they were busy ramming through Free Trade agreements when Bill Clinton was Pres?

Where was Bill Clinton to stand up for American Workers, while our Factories and Mills were getting shut down and jobs shipped overseas when he signed NAFTA into law with a Republican House and enough Democrats to pass it down the line in the Senate?

Is it any wonder that the "Republican Civil War" narrative is heavily focused on the Bannon/Trump wing representing the "Populist Wing" of the 'Pubs vs the "Establishment Wing" (Country Club style 'Pubs)?

It is actually fascinating that although many on this Forum are obsessed with the Bernie/Clinton division in the '16 Dem Primaries, we are ignoring the big Story, which are the massive schisms now that the 'Pubs in theory have absolute control of all branches of Government.

Sort of reminds me of this old Punk Classic song from the UK band "The Subhumans": Subvert City, which if one listens the soundtrack closely talks about totalitarianism from both the Left and the Right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMGPs_b2Gu8

[NOVA Green]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Where did you find this glorious info?

Although Landslide Lyndon apparently still has some residual issues from the '16 Dem Primary, I believe he likely pulled it from here, and somehow converted the unofficial election results from a PDF, and summarized the numbers....

http://jeffcoprobatecourt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Unofficial-Precinct-Report-12-12-17.pdf

Still, Landslide Lyndon seems like a pretty chill and cool cat overall, and A+ poster to the Forum, and Mountain Brook (Pop 25k ?)  was considered to be "Ground Zero" (Most educated City, Wealthy White Suburban Birmingham voters, etc) as to where one might expect some of the biggest swings towards Doug Jones....

Seem to recall reading elsewhere that HRC only captured something like 35% of the vote out there in '16 (Haven't run the '12 > '16 numbers yet for this City), but yeah if you are looking at 60% swings between the '16 Pres and '17 Sen, this is obviously a major issue for Republicans in suburban Birmingham.....

(Hint is overwhelmingly White 95%, 30% of households have income > $200k, 61% of househols > $100k/Yr)

This is actually a bit interesting in that I'm not convinced we saw the same margin swings among Upper-Incomes White in Alabama and Mississippi between '12 and '16 towards HRC that we saw in major suburban areas of other Southern States, including Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina, para ejemplo....

Never ran precinct numbers on the Upper Income precincts in 'Bama nor Mississippi, but did chip in a small number of precinct level consolidation summary reports on this thread...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0

I'm actually suspecting that the White Wealthy suburban vote swing that we saw in 'Bama in the US-SEN special election, might be a bit of a delayed reaction to Trumpism (Combined with the alleged Felon they selected as their candidate) among certain populations within the State.

Needless to say the Jones winning Dem coalition had tons of legs to stand on in a State that is actually much more electorally complex and versatile than the main stream media narrative of the race.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we are finally starting to get initial precinct level results from some of the Counties in Alabama, it's time to take a look at some of the Counties that have posted Provisional election results by precinct, recognizing that there might be some changes once Provisional Ballots, Overseas Voters, and Military Voters are counted....

Jefferson County accounted for only 16% of the votes in the '17 US-SEN election, but was obviously a County that Jones needed to win by huge margins to make the race a toss-up election, which he did.

It's also a City/Metro area in the Deep South that can legitimately claim to be the first "Steel City" in the United States (Although folks from the Pittsburgh area and Steeler fans might disagree).

A region where the combination of Coal Mines, Railroads, and Steel Mills created an Industrial Worker movement, where Poor White and Blacks alike from throughout the State and region migrated to during the Great Depression and the expansion of the Factories in the region to push out the raw materials needed to win the War against Nazism and Fascism in both Europe and Asia.

Interestingly enough, Unions didn't discriminate against African-Americans in the Mines and Factories of Birmingham, compared to the practices of the Labor Movement in places like the Industrial Midwest and California during that era.

I digress, so let's take a look at Jefferson County and the vote share by municipality in the '16 GE and '17 Special election...





So what we see here is that Birmingham expanded their overall vote share by 1.5-2.0% of the total County Vote. We also see that rural parts of Jefferson County saw their vote share decrease by similar numbers.

Now, time to look at the 2016 Pres GE percentages and margins by City within Jefferson County.



Here are the 2017 US SEN percentages and margins by City within Jefferson County...



Now, lets look at the % swings in Jefferson County by City:



So, at this point most of us following the election not living a world of delusion nor denial, essentially illustrates a dramatic swing towards Jones in Middle-Class and Upper-Income White suburbs of Birmingham, compared to HRC's performance in 2016.

Now, let's look at the Voter turnout in the '17 US-SEN election by place:



So what's interesting here is not just that voter turnout was high in overwhelmingly White and Upper-Income regions of Jefferson County, but also that 49% of voters in Birmingham turnout out to vote, when the SoS of 'Bama was estimating 25-27% turnout for the Special Election, and I thought I heard that overall Voter turnout in 'Bama was somewhere close to 40% for this election...

Other than Mountain Brook (56-37 Jones) and Vestavia Hills (51-45 Jones), Birmingham had the 3rd highest voter turnout rate within Jefferson County,

Now, what is fascinating here is the dramatic drop in support for Moore in rural parts of Jefferson County compared to Donald Trump...

The lowest level of turnout in Jefferson County where Trump achieved net +20k raw vote margins in '16, translates to less than a +9k Moore raw Vote margin in '17....

One last note, this is what the chart looks like when one examines the raw vote margin by City in Jefferson County between '16 and '17 that presents more a visual on how these various dynamics suddenly made Jefferson County a 70% Democratic bastion in '17, after only giving HRC 52% of the vote in '16....



Food for thought, and still shifting through the precinct level data from Alabama....

[NOVA Green]

So, as I posted well earlier on the thread, there are a few topical tunes that some of y'all might want to listen to and pay a few bucks like I did to buy the CD's back in the days.

Alabama: "My Home's in Alabama" sung live, suspecting it is either in the College Ball Stadiums of Tuscaloosa or Auburn (Suspecting the former not the later, but maybe I have a few personal issues with Auburn)
zy on
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Ryzfvf7AE

So--- any haters Dem or Pub on Atlas that want to go absolutely crazy on a state because of their voting patterns, can people just take a chill pill on the stereotypes???

I fought back against this crap from Democratic posters in '08 on Atlas when it came to West Virginia, and against the same BS when it comes to Alabama....

There are obviously a ton of 'Pub avatars guilty of the same stereotypes and sins, that lack the ability to objectively analyze and discuss the data as presented, and will shoot down BS wherever I see it regardless of avatars.

Absolutely no issues whatsoever with a Progressive Dem getting elected as US-SEN from 'Bama, and certainly nothing wrong with being a Democrat that supports 2nd Amendment Rights, just like Bernie Sanders.

[NOVA Green]

One thing I've been wondering since Election Night, is what exactly happened in Baldwin County...

You saw almost a 50% collapse of the Republican Vote share compared to Trump's performance in 2016.

Trump received 34.4k more votes than Roy Moore, and although Doug Jones gained 3.7k more votes than HRC for a net 20% increase of the Democratic Vote between '16 and '17, and 1.7k voters wrote-In someone else (Presumably mainly disgruntled Republicans), it appears that many 'Pub voters simply decided to stay home on Election Day.

The collapse in the 'Pub vote was visible in every precinct in the County, although to a much lesser extent in a heavily African-American Precinct in Bay Minette.

Overall the margins in the County swung 31% Democratic between '16 and '17, although this phenomenon was much more visible in a relatively small number of large precincts, which I'll get to shortly.

Unfortunately Baldwin County is a bit trickier than some to work with, as the precinct lines to not cleanly overlay with Municipal Boundaries, but still it gives us a starting point when it comes to overlapping election data with Census data.



Here's a link to the Baldwin County election office, which makes it easier to look at than the small picture posted above.

http://baldwincountyal.gov/docs/default-source/voting-precinct-changes/2016-precinct-map.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Baldwin County is overwhelmingly White (83%) and only 10% African-American, with the White share the population rising to 90% for the critical 55+ demographic. It is a bit older than the State at larger with 32% of the population 55+ Yrs.

It also tends to be a bit wealthier than most Counties in Alabama, with an MHI of $50.2k/Yr, which is perhaps even more remarkable considering the relatively size of the retiree population.

It appears to also have a lower proportion of Evangelical Christians than many other places in Alabama, including Southern Baptists, although honestly the data on this might be a bit sketchy.

Ok now, take a look at those precincts where there were the largest swings towards Jones, compared to the '16 US Pres election.



So what do these precincts share in common?

They are some of the wealthiest and most educated precincts within Baldwin County, with Precinct #7 overlapping pretty closely with a Census tract where the MHI is $82.8k/Yr, the Daphne precincts overlying closely with Census tracts where the MHI is $70-71k/ Yr, and Fairhope at about $58k/yr.

If you look at Educational attainment by Tract, you see roughly 55% of the population over 25 years have a Post-Secondary degree.

If we look at the total vote for these four precincts alone, they represented 24.2% of the County Vote in 2016, and jumped to 26.0% in 2017.

The 2016 US PRES numbers were 23,026 Total Votes---- (26.4% Dem), (68.0% Rep)
The 2017 US SEN numbers were 16,216 Total Votes--- (47.0% Dem), (50.0% Rep).

So here is a visual representation of the net vote change between '16 and '17 for these precincts:



So basically about 20% of drop-off in the Republican vote here were crossover Trump > Jones voters, combined with roughly 7% who wrote-in an alternative candidate (Assuming the WIs were 'Pub voters).

So basically those places that swung hardest Dem between '16 > '17 in Baldwin County did it both as a result of a significant chunk of cross-over voters, AND significant decrease in Republican enthusiasm in the wealthiest parts of the County.

There are similar patterns, but to less visible extent in White Middle and Upper-Middle Class precincts, a short commuting distance over the Bay to Mobile.

So how did Gulf Coast Retirees vote in 2016 and 2017?

So basically I'm limiting this to the three precincts along the Gulf Coast that are overwhelmingly 55+ and older, all of which actually have a pretty decent income for retirees, some $50-70k / YR MHI.



So interestingly enough here we observe a 33% Swing towards Doug Jones compared to HRC's performance in these older White retiree precincts, which is not something that I was particularly expecting...

A lot of this might explain the Moore/Bannon/Trump triangulation on Baldwin County in the closing days of the campaign.

So if we look at the overall vote share for Gulf Coast Retirees in these precincts, they were 11.0% of the total County Vote in '16, and 11.4% in '17.

The interesting thing here is that you had one of the largest % increase in the Democratic total vote between '16 > '17.... 

About 18% of the drop in 'Pub support (3880 total votes between '16 and '17) can be explained by Trump > Jones crossover voters, and about 5% from presumably 'Pub voters who wrote in another Candidate in '17.



So basically we have 37% of the '17 County Voting Population accounted for in just these seven precincts, where both cross-over voters, and decline in 'Pub Participation played a major role.

[NOVA Green]

I think this thread is beginning to get off Alabama.  I realize everything can be related to everything else, but things are stretching a bit.

Well duh. the election is over so there's not as much to discuss regarding this race.

True.  The thread should probably be unstickied.

I have no idea what some of these other folks are wrangling about, but I'm still mining through precinct results, and nobody really commented on my Jefferson or Baldwin County numbers. but I'm still about to post some data on precinct results from Calhoun County (Anniston).

Maybe I was mistaken, and this isn't the thread to discuss actual election results, including precinct data from the AL-2017-Special Election as they become available.

Maybe we need a whole new thread to actually discuss and analyze the actual election results from Alabama, or just more aggressively curb the serial thread derailers so they can take their arguments that have nothing to do with the topic at hand elsewhere?

Half tempted to just start a new thread for those interested in actually looking at what happened in 'Bama in '17 in the election, since it seems that there are only a few dozen posters on the thread actually interested in a more detailed discussion of the results and what that portends for the future of the Democratic and Republican political coalitions in Alabama a few years down the line.

Let's face it the Doug Jones victory in Alabama, was heavily based upon a combination of factors:

1.) High African-American turnout in an off-year election.

2.) Significant swings towards the Democratic candidate among College-Educated and Upper-Income White voters in the larger Metro Areas of the State.

3.) Less significant, but still swings towards the Democratic Candidate among WWC and Middle-Class voters in traditionally Democratic regions of the State, such as Northern Alabama, where in some cases Doug Jones exceeded, and in other cases came close to matching, Gore's numbers from 2000.

4.) Major decline of Republican voter turnout, especially among older White Rural precincts throughout the State.

5.) Massive Generational Gap with Jones winning voters under the age of 45 (60-38), narrowly losing the 45-64 Year Vote (47-51), and losing the 65+ Yr vote (40-59).

Sure some of that can be explained by a dramatic decrease in turnout among older White Republican Voters disgusted by Moore's behavior (See some of the rural precinct results that I have been posting), BUT looking at those 18-44 Year old numbers should frighten any Republican running for Statewide office in the Great State of Alabama.

Although Moore might have been the worst possible candidate Alabama 'Pubs could have nominated (All of the Sexual assault and harassment issues, some involving Minors likely narrowly sunk his campaign), still the "Republican Civil War" is pitting the "Populist Republicans" against the "Country Club Republicans", and right now the Populist Republicans don't like the dog meat they are getting fed from the Trump Administration and Republican Control of House & Senate, while meanwhile, the Southern "Country Club Republicans" started swinging heavily Dem between '12 and '16 looking at precinct results from Cities in TN, TX, and GA...

Now we are seeing this phenomenon where Doug Jones wins Mountain Brook (60-40) and HRC barely cracked 20% and Trump captured 60%.

Once these types of Upper-Middle Class White Republican Leaning and Indy Voters flip, they tend to flip hard, and frequently permanently.

For many in the wealthier parts of Alabama, this is their first time ever having voted Democratic for a Federal Election, and as we saw in the West Coast in the 1990s and early 2000s, NOVA and similar places in NC in the 2000s and accentuating under Obama, these are voters that will always turn out to vote, and don't like the Republican brand under the current Presidency not to mention the face of their current Party in Alabama.

[NOVA Green]

Calhoun County, Alabama:



Located in the Northeastern part of Alabama, in theory this should have been total Roy Moore Country, as one of the most Republican Counties of Northern/Northeastern 'Bama for quite a few decades...

Democrats have not won the County since '76, and although Carter only narrowly lost it in '80 against Reagan, Doug Jones performed better than any Democratic President in the County, even Bill Clinton '96, who only captured 43% of the Vote vs Dole's 49%.

Even Al Gore only won 41% of the Vote here in '00.

Dems have been stuck in the 33% range from '04-'12, dropping to their lowest vote share ever since '72.

Compare Calhoun County (74-21 White/African-American) vs neighboring Etowah County (Gadsden) which is (79-15 White/African-American), and Etowah County not only voted overwhelmingly for Carter in both '76/'80, but barely voted for Ronald Reagan in '84 by ~ 150 votes, and same with Bush Sr in '88.

Bill Clinton won Etowah County under Bill Clinton with about 48% of the vote, and Gore bagged 44%, and the results slip down to 24% by '16.

So... Roy Moore wins Etowah (59-39) and Calhoun only (55-44).

What gives with the tale of two Counties? Was originally trying to pull the precinct numbers from Etowah, but unfortunately these are not yet available and stumbled in Calhoun instead.

Ok--- how to break down the precinct numbers for Calhoun County?

Fortunately, the County makes it a bit easier than some to break down the results by municipality than some, although honestly their precinct maps are crap, so trying to separate City precincts from Uninc, etc gets a little bit sketch, but makes it easier to work with:

So here is the Vote Share by Place results in the 2016 GE and the 2017 US-SEN election...





Ok--- numbers get tricky because we don't really have a good precinct map for the County, so some of these precincts overlap with Oxford and Uninc areas, and quite frankly don't believe that Anniston which consists of only 25% of the County population represented 24% of the County Vote in '16, but still helps explain the Story...

So, what are the voting percentages by Place in Calhoun County?

2016:



2017:



Now the story of Calhoun County is an overall decline of support for both candidates, compared to the 2016 Presidential Election....

Jones received 12% less of the vote than HRC in '16, and Moore received a whopping 56% less of the Republican Vote than Trump in '16.

Interestingly enough, Jones biggest drop of support compared to HRC's numbers were in heavily Democratic African-American precincts in Anniston....



Now obviously the key thing here is that Anniston not only consists of 20% of the County vote, but is only a narrowly African-American City (52-44) ... which is still a driver of the local economy with the largest employers in the area being the Anniston Army Depot (4.3k employees), the Honda Plant outside of Oxford Alabama right South of Anniston, and overall the Anniston Metro precincts swung some 30% HRC>Jones (Despite the issues with cleanly separating municipal precinct lines)

Oxford has an MHI of $ 49.7k/Yr and is 78% White vs 12% African-American.



Here we see a 26% swing between HRC and Jones (Likely larger with cleaner precinct coding).

We could look at the 3rd largest City Jacksonville (68-26 White/Black) that went from (35-58) Trump to (54-44 Jones)...

Law Enforcement is the largest relative occupation (3.0%), followed by Food Service (10.2%), and Education (11.4%).

So, working Class Exurb North of Anniston that swung hard Dem.

Obviously we would be remiss not to mention the collapse of rural support in the '17 US-SEN election...

In Calhoun County, these places are overwhelmingly Old and White, but still represent roughly 34-35% of the County Vote.



So here we see both the biggest decline for Republicans compared to '16 Trump numbers ( -7.7k Votes) and the only precincts where Jones gained net voted +139....

Old 'Dawgs comin' home???

[NOVA Green]

Let's face it the Doug Jones victory in Alabama, was heavily based upon a combination of factors:

1.) High African-American turnout in an off-year election.

2.) Significant swings towards the Democratic candidate among College-Educated and Upper-Income White voters in the larger Metro Areas of the State.

3.) Less significant, but still swings towards the Democratic Candidate among WWC and Middle-Class voters in traditionally Democratic regions of the State, such as Northern Alabama, where in some cases Doug Jones exceeded, and in other cases came close to matching, Gore's numbers from 2000.

4.) Major decline of Republican voter turnout, especially among older White Rural precincts throughout the State.

5.) Massive Generational Gap with Jones winning voters under the age of 45 (60-38), narrowly losing the 45-64 Year Vote (47-51), and losing the 65+ Yr vote (40-59).

Sure some of that can be explained by a dramatic decrease in turnout among older White Republican Voters disgusted by Moore's behavior (See some of the rural precinct results that I have been posting), BUT looking at those 18-44 Year old numbers should frighten any Republican running for Statewide office in the Great State of Alabama.

Although Moore might have been the worst possible candidate Alabama 'Pubs could have nominated (All of the Sexual assault and harassment issues, some involving Minors likely narrowly sunk his campaign), still the "Republican Civil War" is pitting the "Populist Republicans" against the "Country Club Republicans", and right now the Populist Republicans don't like the dog meat they are getting fed from the Trump Administration and Republican Control of House & Senate, while meanwhile, the Southern "Country Club Republicans" started swinging heavily Dem between '12 and '16 looking at precinct results from Cities in TN, TX, and GA...

Now we are seeing this phenomenon where Doug Jones wins Mountain Brook (60-40) and HRC barely cracked 20% and Trump captured 60%.

Once these types of Upper-Middle Class White Republican Leaning and Indy Voters flip, they tend to flip hard, and frequently permanently.

For many in the wealthier parts of Alabama, this is their first time ever having voted Democratic for a Federal Election, and as we saw in the West Coast in the 1990s and early 2000s, NOVA and similar places in NC in the 2000s and accentuating under Obama, these are voters that will always turn out to vote, and don't like the Republican brand under the current Presidency not to mention the face of their current Party in Alabama.

This does make me wonder about what would happen in MS. It's more rural, has a higher % of the Black population, more racially polarized apparently, and also swung towards Trump (mainly due to depressed Black turnout last year).

Good question... the math is certainly much more favorably than Alabama in theory, assuming high voter turnout, and likely we will likely see significant swings among White Suburban Voters in the '20 Pres election in places like Madison, De Soto, and Rankin among other places, assuming Trump is the 'Pres.

Still, although in theory Mississippi Whites in recent years have been voting only slightly more Republican than Alabaman White Voters, you might be on to something with the "Rural", aka Industrialization and Manufacturing sectors compared to Alabama.

Mississippi has one major auto plant in Canton, MS, (Madison County), doesn't have the history of the Shipyards, Defense Plants, Steel Mills, Coal Mines of Alabama...

Is the Democratic Coalition of Alabama transferable to Mississippi?

Absolutely....

Education, Health Care, and decent paying jobs always play well to all of us working-class Americans, and it don't take that many White Votes to flip in MS to put the State in play.

Problem is when so many of us are dealing with working jobs to keep a roof over our head, take care of family members that have nowhere else to go including medical and substance abuse issues, sometimes it gets difficult to find the time to get out and vote on election day, especially in a One-Party State like 'Bama.

Actually, I think it might be a very good time to invest effort into the upcoming 2018 US-SEN election in MS!   

Think there might be some College students and volunteers from Alabama that were part of the stealth Jones Ground War effort from places like Birmingham and Mobile in AL-'17 that would be more than happy to spend some time with their neighbors in MS to make this happen.

Let me know if you need precinct level data from MS, but after what we saw in 'Bama, I won't discount the impact of a mass turnout effort, considering that the only ones who voted for Moore were those 65+....

[NOVA Green]

Another factor in Moore doing better with rural whites is that 2017 was an election for a federal office while 2012 for for a state office. For a federal election polarization is closer to national lines rather than traditional lines of polarization.

Honestly I think is likely the more accurate assessment for the relative shift in certain counties of the State between '12 and '17.

There is absolutely little doubt in my mind if it were the same two candidates and circumstances Doug Jones would like have been elected Governor of Alabama in a relative Democratic (By Alabama standards) landslide.

This obviously indicates the importance of building a full slate of Candidates in Alabama (And elsewhere), even in extremely challenging regions for all Federal elections, Statewide elections, and even many state House and Senate districts.

You never know when a candidate that looks like a shoe-in is just one step away from potentially losing because of some various type of scandal.

So one the things most impressive about Jones victory, was that he did it in the absence of any significant statewide Party infrastructure outside of some the largest Cities and Counties, a few University towns, and of course in the "Black Belt" region which is heavily Democratic to start with, even in rural areas.

If you don't have at least some type of local party infrastructure in most parts of the State, it makes it extremely difficult to mobilize human capitol, (Campaign volunteers) to make up the difference especially when you are heavily out-funded by your opponent, even in a favorable political opportunity structure.

[NOVA Green]

Here's a map that shows the extent of the turnout discrepancy and where. Basically, this just shows the percentage-point difference between Democratic and Republican turnout relative to 2016. So statewide, Democrats pulled 92% of their 2016 numbers in this race; GOP 49%. That's a 43-point difference in turnout (92-49) between the two parties relative to 2016.

Both maps show the same thing - the one on the right eliminates numbers and uses starker colors.

Thanks Fmr Pres Grif!

I always enjoy your insightful posts and maps, especially regarding politics in Southern States, even though I frequently don't comment.

This map definitely shows the "Tale of Two Turnouts" at a County level, which so far seems to jive pretty closely with precinct data that I've looked at in three Counties of Alabama thus far (Jefferson, Baldwin, and Calhoun County.

One item which I'm also looking at, which doesn't reflect in County level numbers/maps are were their particular places within Counties where turnout collapsed or surged for candidates relative to previous elections, which of the course part of the reason that I used '16 US PRES as the baseline, both because precinct level result is readily accessible for all Counties in AL for the '16 GE, which can be easily matched against '17 data, and also since it is a Federal Election it's a way of testing both the transferability of the Trump brand to other candidates, as well as potentially areas where support for Trump is weakening.

One other thing that I'm looking at are the "Cross-Over" votes by precinct, since not only are these worth the equivalent of two votes (Double book accounting style), but also this shows where the Republican Coalition is Alabama is losing support, which one can't really ascertain simply by looking at County level results.

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- this might be the last of these for awhile, unless there is interest out there, since I have several projects that I have put on hold working on Alabama, and also we don't have precinct level results available for many parts of the State yet for the '17 US-SEN Election.

Mobile, County:



A significant Jones win in Mobile County was a necessary, but not sufficient component for any potential statewide win, since as the second largest County by population in the State (413k) it was virtually unfathomable to envision a Jones victory without significant wins both here and in Madison County, combined with expected lopsided margins in Jefferson and Montgomery Counties, to offset heavily Republican votes in smaller Counties and rural areas elsewhere in the State.

Still, Jones overall vote margins and percentages by which he won Mobile County were likely a bit higher than one might have imagined, considering the population is 59-35 White-Black, and the County as a whole went 42-56 Trump in 2016.



So, before I start getting into items such as vote margin changes by place, turnout changes, vote-cross-over etc, let's start by looking at what the vote by place looked like in the 2016 GE vs the 2017 SEN Election.

2016:



2017:

2017:



So, interestingly enough you see Mobile's vote share go up from 46 > 52% of the County total, with the only other place with an increase being Prichard (A heavily Democratic City North of Mobile), and the biggest decrease happening in Rural areas, with most other places in the County losing vote share as well....

Now if we look at how the places in Mobile County voted in '16 and '17, and what the swings were we see the following:



So----

1.) The margin swings between '16 and '17 were actually relatively close in almost all places in Mobile County, with the exception of overwhelmingly African-American City of Prichard, slightly lower swings in Citronelle, in the far North of the County.

2.) Significantly the swings in Mobile were at 25%, which considering it's disproportionate share of the County Vote, as well as being a 44-51 African-American City, obviously played a major role in Doug Jones overall margins within Mobile County.

UNINC areas and Semmes stand out because of their population of Middle and Upper-Middle Class White voters, as does Tillmans Corner, because of its large concentration of White Working Class Voters....

So now the next item is to look at where voter support/turnout dropped for the respective two major party candidates between '16 and '17, and then take a look at cross-over voters after.

City of Mobile:

1.) Precincts HRC won by > 80% in the 2016 GE:

So, these are generally heavily African-American precincts, and here we see Jones losing a Net +3.0k votes compared to HRC in '16 for a 20% drop in numbers, although granted Moore's support collapsed 45%, it's not really seeming the Jones got the same type of vote turnout and mobilization in the African-American community that he did in Birmingham.

Now it is also interesting that this data set also includes two precincts with a high proportion of College Students ( # 27 Bishop State Community College and # 37 directly West of the University of South Alabama)...



2.) Precincts won by HRC with 65-80% Dem Vote:

These are precincts that generally are majority African-American, but with a significant White vote as well. Here we see Dem turnout collapsing 16% and 'Pub turnout collapsing 49%, and 'Pubs actually lose a net 200 Votes here on the voter turnout / cross-over voter War.



3.) HRC 50-65% Precincts

Now we are starting to get into precincts that are majority White, in some cases significantly so, but still with a large African-American Population...



So, here we see the Democratic turnout gap advancing significantly, while the decline in the 'Pub vote share remains pretty high....

Likely some of this is a result of 'Pub cross-over votes, but we don't have a mechanism to directly prove that.

4.) "Trump Precincts"---- This basically lumps all precincts here HRC captured <50% of the Vote in '16, although one of these she narrowly won with a plurality.

These are for the most part overwhelmingly White Precincts....



So here we see 1,500 Democratic Votes for Doug Jones over the 2016 HRC numbers...

These are definitely 100% crossover vote numbers, which is certainly significant.

5.) Although obviously a deeper dive of Mobile Precinct results are warranted, as I posited several weeks before the AL-US-SEN election, that Roy Moore would likely fare poorly in Mobile and in the "Cajun Country" part of Alabama, because of his history as a religious bigot.

I also referenced the role and connections of Interfaith Religious Networks, including Jews, Catholics, Mainline Protestants, Traditional Black Christian Churches, and various Evangelical networks...

http://www.encyclopediaofalabama.org/article/h-1878

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congregation_Sha%27arai_Shomayim_(Mobile,_Alabama)

So here are the precinct results from one of the most Republican Precincts in Mobile, located overwhelmingly on the Campus of Spring Hill College (Private Jesuit Catholic School)...  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Hill_College



So, collapse of Roy Moore certainly seems to have hit hard in any overwhelmingly Catholic Precinct, and one of the most Republican precincts in the City, in an extremely diverse community going back centuries when it comes from everything involving ancestry/country of origin---Race/Ethnicity--- Religious Diversity--- Social Class/Income.

I could run through some of numbers from other places, but I think the UNINC and Rural numbers speak for themselves....

My main question is less at this point will these voters back Doug Jones in 2020, than to what extent of the radioactive nature of the Trump brand, causing normal moderate Alabama 'Pubs from places like the Cities of Mobile, Daphne, Vestavia Hills, and Mountain Brook, to abandon flirting with the Republican Party altogether, and accept their identity as Democrats.

[NOVA Green]

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?

When Ivanka said there is a special place in hell for people like Roy, I assumed it was just the Trump family way of announcing the location of their newest Trump towers.

[NOVA Green]

Lee County Alabama:



So, as there has been so much talk about Lee County Alabama (Auburn) and the dramatic shifts in voting and all of that, I decided to pull up the '16 and '17 numbers to see if they shed any light on the subject.

Lee County doesn't have a ton of voting precincts, since like many other places in the Country, they have "broadbanded" and consolidated voting locations over the years, which is either a positive or negative development depending upon one's Point of View (POV). Personally, I prefer greater detail to a lesser amount of detail when it comes to precincts, since it makes it easier to do a deeper dive into voting habits by demographics, but hey at least it looks like overall they've avoided all of the messiness that comes with split precinct BS, which is part of reason Madison County isn't at the top of my list for a compare/contrast exercise between the '16 GE and '17 AL-SEN elections.

So, the media narrative was that Doug Jones was swept to victory as a result of a massive surge in Democratic turnout among young voters, African-Americans, White Democrats, combined with swings among College Educated Middle Class Voters in the Metro Areas, extremely depressed evangelical White turnout, the more one looks at the data, the more simplistic that narrative becomes (Although there are still significant core elements of truth there).

1.) So far looking at the precinct level results, it appears that in African-American precincts in Birmingham there was a massive turnout surge, albeit with some significant declines in some heavily working-class and poorer precincts of the City. In Mobile, turnout was down significantly in heavily African-American precincts, but much less so than in heavily White working-class precincts. In Blue collar manufacturing cities in Alabama, we saw a significant dip in African-American turnout in places like Bessemer, Bay Minette, Prichard, and Anniston.

2.) The drop in 'Pub turnout in White working-class precincts of these cities was significantly larger than the drop in AA turnout in the equivalent of the "neighborhood across the railroad tracks" in all four of these Blue Collar towns. The drop in 'Pub turnout in rural areas overall based on the precincts we have covered thus far in Jefferson, Baldwin, Calhoun, and Mobile Counties was even much higher, which is especially significant because of how Republican these rural precincts are and typically quite a bit older and Whiter, and presumably more frequent in terms of rates of Church attendance.

3.) Precinct level data has shown a significant Republican cross-over vote in places like Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, Uninc Jefferson Co (Jefferson Co), Daphne & Spanish Fort (Baldwin Co), Older Middle Class retirement communities on the Gulf Coast (Baldwin Co) Middle and Upper Middle Class 'Pub precincts in Mobile, and likely to some extent in the heavily White Auto Factory town of Oxford (Calhoun County).

4.) What about the Millennial Vote and Student Vote?

Well, if you're looking for it in Lee County (Auburn) you are not going to see it.



The collapse of votes for both major party candidates here was astronomical, not to say that there weren't crossover voters, etc,

Does this mean that Auburn Undergrad students who are actually from Alabama didn't vote in the 2017 AL-SEN election? Absolutely, many of them likely did via an absentee ballot sent to their parent's addresses in the heavily White Upper-Middle-Class communities from when they predominate. 12/11-12/15 was Finals week in Auburn, and although Doug Jones appearance at the Iron Bowl might have helped him within the County overall, one must wonder to what extent it was targeted not specifically at the University Vote, but rather to demonstrate that he's a regular 'Baman like anyone else, and not some Liberal stereotype who doesn't like Football "because kids might get hurt playin' ball".

Still, we can't quantify that vote in the same way we can for other demographics, so let's take a look at who actually voted in Lee County in the '17 US Senate Race.

Lee County AL: Vote Share by Place 2016 and 2017:

2016:



2017:



Ok--- We see Auburn lose about 1% of the County Vote Share, Opelika pick up 4% of the County Vote Share, Smith Station stay constant, rural areas added 1% to their vote share (!!!), and absentee and provisional ballots lose 4% of their vote share (!!!!)

So how did the various communities in Lee County Vote in '16 and '17?



This is pretty interesting right here....

Despite what appears to be a relatively lacking College Student vote in Auburn, Jones actually won every place in the County, with the exception of rural areas, where he came within a few points of Roy Moore.

So it appears that the "townie" vote within the County (Including places other than Auburn) swung hard for Jones, regardless of the lack of an apparent Undergrad College Vote in 2017....

Let's look at the Vote margins and swings by place in Lee County 2016 > 2017:



So overall Democratic vote margin swings were around 36-37% in most of the County.

The exception was Smiths Station, where there was a 44% vote margin swing!!!!

Total Vote Margin Change 2016 > 2017 by Precinct:



Ok---- Wow, just Wow!!!

Dems lost > 50% of their '16 vote in every precinct in the County (Excepting a small rural precinct "Uptown Marvyn", and Moore lost > 80% of the '16 'Pub vote in every precinct in the County, excepting a couple in Opelika and one in rural Beulah, where he only lost 77-79% of Trump's '16 vote in the County.

So, in Lee County, it was definitely a turnout war to see which campaign could do a better job of pulling out what voters were actually around and interested in going to the polls.

So, one last note....

1.) Auburn (17-72   Black/White).... This statistic is likely distorted because the student population is much "Whiter" than the Townie population, but still of the five precincts within the City of Auburn, we have one that is in a Census tract with the highest % of African-Americans within the City of Auburn.

Precinct # 10: Boykin Community Center:

Here is what you see when the College kids go home.... Sure there was a drop in overall total raw vote margins, but look at the margin %



Precinct # 14: Clarion Inn South College:

This includes the dorms of Auburn, as well as a significant chunk of off-campus student housing...




So, these numbers appear pretty obvious.... Auburn University Undergrads are much more Republican than the City at large, and once they left, the University town started to vote a bit differently.

2.) Numbers from Opelika are also a bit interesting, considering that although it is close enough to Auburn to have *some* Undergrad College kids residing within the City limits, is actually more of a working and lower-middle-class community, that is the seat of County government, and also a bedroom community for many locals who can't afford to live in an expensive college town like Auburn, plus some Grad students living in the Modern Day "Sweatshops of Academia", where they get paid crap wages to teach the works of the professors, in exchange for indentured servitude

(42-49 African-American/White), MHI $ 40.1k

3.) Smith Station--- This one totally caught me off-guard.

It's basically a suburban/ Exurban community part of the Metro Columbus- GA / Phenix City AL MSA, and has very little to do with the College areas around Auburn and Opelika.

(15-79 African-American/White), MHI $ 44.3k/Yr

It has the 11th largest High School in Alabama, which means that Friday Night High School ballgames are huge here...

https://kickerfm.iheart.com/featured/east-alabama-hs-football/content/2017-07-27-smiths-station-panthers-2017-football-schedule/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smiths_Station,_Alabama

This place swung 44% towards Doug Jones (51- 49 D) vs (27-69 Trump).

So right next to Phenix City, the fictional backdrop of one of the best NativeSouthern Detective writers Ace Atkins setting in "Wicked City", on the edge of a rapidly growing Metro expansion of Columbus, Georgia across into Alabama, not to mention Fort Benning Georgia....

Although, I haven't yet delved into Russell County, we are starting to see a trend where even in relatively small counties in Alabama, if there are major connections with industrial employers (Auto) or private sector employers (Military) we're not really seeing the love for Roy Moore for some bizarre reason.



4.) Rural Areas---- My thought on rural areas in Lee County, is that as the smallest County in Alabama in terms of land area, it doesn't consist as heavily as the same types of rural voters that we have seen in Jefferson, Baldwin, Calhoun, and Mobile Counties.... Meaning that many of these "rural precincts" have a significant component of individuals that have the money and means to live on some acres outside of the cities in the various townships, and still commute to work in places like Auburn, Opelika, Smith Station, Phenix City, and in some cases even Columbus Georgia....

Otherwise not sure how to explain the dramatic swing in rural areas, regardless of the dramatic drop in overall voter turnout within the County.

Edit: Was just thinking of this classic song from one of the Old Blues artists from Alabama...:

Lead Belly: Alabama Bound

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfBbLuGmWhc

[NOVA Green]

I will see this man in hell, hang on while you can Moore, cuz u gonna be in fire and brimstone, the likes of which you have never seen before, whether it be 10 15 20 years, you aint got much left in you.

Maybe Satan is planning to retire and is grooming Moore as his successor?

Okay that is really disgusting.

Coolidge--- you gotta keep your cool man.

Look, while your busy picking fights and arguments with posters from all different avatars and persuasions regarding some random election in Alabama, where really you haven't added much in any way to a contribution towards the Political-Science body of knowledge, you are on the verge of seeing your US-House seat in SW-Washington flip Democratic as part of a giant Democratic wave come 2018 ( I would bet 80-20 odds that WA-03 flips in '18).

So, I like you dude, especially in your early postings which is why I sent you a full set of Washington State precinct level results from '08 > '16 when you were originally planning to do an "Oregon style thread" like I had done to as part of an Academic research project, regardless of partisan affiliation.

What I might suggest, is that you dedicate a bit of your time towards the reelection campaign of Jaime Herrera Beutler in WA-03 in November '18.

This is something that I did about your age in Oregon during a pivotal race in OR-05, when the Democratic candidate unseated a long standing Republican representing the district.

It not only gives you the ability to combine precinct level data and analysis from your district, but also a chance to connect with voters by doing day to day things like canvassing, phone banking, etc.

I have nothing whatsoever against being a 'Pub on Atlas, but if you feel so passionately about Alabama (), while the Democrats can and will flip your district in '18, maybe time to put your time and money where the mouth is....

Go canvas in these burly Blue Collar Longshoreman strongholds of Longview and Kelso, or the Fishermen out in Wahkiakum and Pacific Counties....

Don't know what neighborhood from Vancouver, WA you are from, but something tells me you are from the Upper-Middle Class areas in East Vancouver, and not the Working-Class districts of West Vancouver.

WA-03 will flip in '18, and if nothing else, at least you'll get some good political campaign background and experience, and plus you might be the guy in the office (Like I was back in the late '80s as a Teenager) that has every single precinct numbers memorized to pipe suggestions into the top bosses of the campaign team staring at their wall maps before they deploy another batch of canvassers somewhere early in the foggy hours of the morning!

[NOVA Green]

I don't see why democrats are joyful about the results. Yes Doug won, but it took everything the democrat had to win a narrow victory against a guy who should have been blown out of the water.

Well, firstly we have an early Christmas present in the form of Doug Jones winning a solid victory in a State, where nobody expected it to be a race within 8-10 points at the best.



Also, we had a Democrat who ran explicitly as a Liberal Democrat basically not conceding an inch on being pro LGBTQ equality, Pro-Choice, and economic populist and progressive.

I have no doubt that a Democrat who would have run as a "Cultural Conservative" would likely have performed much better among Republican and Republican-Leaning Social Conservative voters against Roy Moore.

What I doubt is that a "Conservative Democrat" would have been able to to mobilize the Democratic base in Alabama the way that Doug Jones did.

Alabama just elected a Liberal Democrat as the next Senator from their Great State.... allow that concept to sink in for a moment.

Sure Doug Jones isn't a crazy "lock up your guns type guy", but hell neither are many of my friends and family members in small-town and rural Oregon, who regularly vote Democrat.

Still as a top law enforcement guy, he's definitely in favor of common sense Gun Reform, to close the loopholes that allow the bad guys easy access to weapons that they use to commit their violent crimes.

Doug Jones passed the 'Bama sniff test to flip enough solid 'Pub voters in the Upper-Income White precincts of Mobile and Baldwin County, not to mention suburban Birmingham and the Auto factory towns elsewhere in the State.

[NOVA Green]

Great work NOVA Green! Do you yourself have an overall conclusion from all this analysis as to what was the main driver of Jones' win?

Thanks Gustaf!

At this point I have only covered precinct level results from Alabama consisting of 34% of the 2017 US-Senate vote, from five counties in the State, so there is still a bit of work to do on this project, so I certainly don't want to suggest this is anywhere close to a definitive study of these election results.



Still, as I posted earlier:

1.) African-American turnout within the City of Birmingham was key to creating the insane margins that we saw in Jefferson County Alabama (Much larger than I was expecting).

2.) Huge net swings of Trump '16 > Jones '17 voters in wealthier White precincts in the larger Metro areas, including the cities of Mobile, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Mountain Brook, Vestavia Hills, Hoover, and Oxford.

3.) In Working-Class factory towns of Alabama, such as Bessemer, Bay Minette, Prichard, and Anniston, we saw a significant decrease in AA turnout compared to Middle-Class AA precincts in Birmingham and Mobile, but an even larger collapse in WWC turnout in the "separate but equal" communities just across the railroad tracks.

4.) The largest collapse in Republican support happened in older, overwhelmingly White, and rural precincts, and apparently despite Trump's alleged popularity among this community, it didn't matter a hill of beans when it came to his last ditch effort to drag Roy Moore over the finish line.

5.) Trump's popularity is fading fast in Alabama, just like many other parts of the country. In fact some recent polls have shown his biggest collapse over the past three months occurring among White Evangelical voters.

There are quite a few reasons why Trump chose to do his finale support for Moore from Pensacola, Florida, instead of doing a Stadium style rally in Alabama.

There is a reason that Steve Bannon showed up at a last minute joint campaign event with Roy Moore in South Alabama, but the numbers from Baldwin County, and the traditionally Republican heartlands of SE 'Bama clearly indicate that that "dirty dawg don't hunt no more"....

Just fine withholding my support and let the Yellow Dawg win, rather than vote for the Republican that stole $ 1 Million out of a Christian charity to line his own pockets with.

Anyways, hoping to pull some more precinct level numbers together soon, especially once we get the Statewide precinct numbers certified, but fwiw these are some of my initial humble thoughts on the subject.

[NOVA Green]

One additional item, that I neglected to mention, regarding a major reason for Roy Moore's stunning loss in Alabama, was his Military history during the Vietnam War.

Alabama is an extremely Patriotic State, with perhaps one of the highest rates of Military Service during the War, some of it a result of social class and economic status, and also as a result of family traditions of military service going back all the days to Andrew Jackson.

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

This was not normal, even in the 'Nam era to have an officer so unpopular where enlisted Men and draftees might go that far....

There are a ton of people in Alabama that served under Roy Moore in 'Nam, but interestingly enough we haven't seen the footage of them jumping up and supporting him for his US-Senate run...

Why is that, when in theory this is the type of dude that should be making hay about his War experience in 'Nam in a State where so many served with honor and distinction only a few short Decades back?

[NOVA Green]

Roy Moore was an extremely unpopular officer during 'Nam, to the point where he would have to barricade his tent with sandbags, just so a live grenade wouldn't pop up in his tent while he was sleeping.

...wow.

It's not that surprising tbh

Sure, it is not surprising that he was type of officer that was extremely unpopular during 'Nam, considering all we have learned since regarding his moral character and personality.

What is extremely surprising is that in a part of the Country where Bill Clinton was extremely unpopular because "he was busy smoking weed overseas in the UK in order to dodge the draft", Al Gore gets hit hard for similar reasons involving the politics of the 1960s, George W. Bush is busy dodging the draft, getting high on weed and cocaine stationed at some Air National Guard Base, where he barely showed up for work (Got a pass on that), John Kerry get's "swiftboated" in '04, even though he was the type of officer that took lead along with the enlisted Men under his command in 'Nam, McCain did quite well in Alabama and many other parts of the region among the 'Vets from that War.

Obama was actually the first US Presidential nominee since before '92 where you didn't have a Democrat running for office with the ghosts of Vietnam hanging over the Party candidate...

Bush Sr in '92 was obviously way too old to have served in 'Nam, but as part of the Greatest Generation he served with honor and distinction in WW II.

Bob Dole in '96 was also a WW II war hero....

George W. Bush.... we've already talked about his history....

McCain.... Vietnam war hero.

Mitt Romney did not serve in Vietnam, something that Steve Bannon just recently attacked him on...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/steve-bannon-knocks-mitt-romney-for-lack-of-military-service-while-defending-roy-moore/article/2642676

So, Roy Moore did serve in Vietnam, and he was known for writing Article 15s, apparently visited some brothels during his Tour of Duty, although according to one former buddy didn't sleep with the underage prostitutes guarded by South Vietnamese Army troops as a private business gig to line the pockets of the corrupt military officers of South Vietnam towards the end of the War.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-forgotten-history-of-fragging-in-vietnam_us_5a1b77b6e4b0cee6c050939d

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/11/a_jersey_lawyer_stands_up_for_his_vienam_war_buddy.html

http://taskandpurpose.com/army-buddy-roy-moore-went-vietnamese-child-brothel-no-big-deal/

http://www.businessinsider.com/roy-moore-transgender-military-lgbtq-vietnam-2017-12

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/10/roy-and-his-rock/304264/

Meanwhile, you got this dude Doug Jones that was too young to have been of draft age during the War, graduates from U of A in '76, gets his law Degree from an Evangelical Christian University in Alabama in '79, who came from humble Working Class roots (Daddy worked for the Union represented US Steel Mill just outside of Birmingham that had both a large proportion of working-class African-American and "White-American" workers alike).

I am still surprised the Moore wasn't able to double-down on his military experience (Steve Bannon obviously tried to bring this up vicariously when it came to Mitt Romney), to do a compare/contrast when it comes to Military experience and the US-Senate race.

Doug Jones biography was obviously pretty strong and credible when it came to White working-class Alabama roots, but he obviously lacked military experience on his resume.

I do wonder to what extent war wariness has reduced the impact of a Military background, even in places like Alabama, especially when you have a Republican President who essentially ran against his Republican opponents during the primaries touting his "Opposition to the War in Iraq", which was brutally effective against Jeb Bush (And others) and even was used against HRC during the GE....

Ok--- done with talking... here are a links to a few songs and artists whose works I have purchased over the years, and I would strongly suggest if you like the songs spending $ 1 to support the estates of these musical artists by purchasing the song on your Smartphone or Mobile device, that brought us these musical works. If you really like the artist, do what I have done over the decades and buy the whole damn album...

1.) Pete Seegar- "Big Muddy"

Although this song was set during WW II in training camps, it was a metaphor about the War in Vietnam written in '67 when the s**t was getting hot during LBJ's escalation of the War.

Picture Captain Roy Moore as the Captain fictionally portrayed in this song...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fUF6RctQvg

*** Warning Vietnam War visuals might be disturbing for 'Vets that have served in war zones ***

2.) Loretta Lynn--- "Dear Uncle Sam"

Although this is one song that typically doesn't float to the top of the list when it comes to Vietnam era songs, the powerful Female vocals from an Appalachian Country Music legend, tells a powerful story about the how the War in 'Nam was hitting home even in extremely patriotic parts of the nation that got hit hardest by the Draft...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwOhZufXYso

3.) John Prine--- "Sam Stone"

One of the best American songs when it came to the impact of Drug Addiction, for those that got addicted to Heroin while in the service of their Country in 'Nam.

This original song was so powerful that even legendary Johnny Cash did a cover of this song....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLVWEYUqGew

4.) Tom Paxton--- "Talking Vietnam"

Ok--- this is a bit more light hearted but definitely a counter-cultural perspective from many of the Vets serving over there....

"The Captain, this blond fellow from Yale, said what's the matter with you baby"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxSR4ZaDpBg

5.) Billy Joel--- "Goodnight Saigon"

So Roy Moore was a Marine in Vietnam, but apparently didn't believe in the values of the Corps, unlike just about every other USMC member I have ever met, including my Father-in-Law, Son-in-Law, friends that served in Vietnam as US Marine Corp members, my friend Miranda's boyfriend who did three tours in Iraq 2.0 from the initial invasion, to the battle of Falluja...

"We all go down together"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJlZeTSaT98


So where I'm going with all of this, is the extremely powerful cultural impact of the Vietnam War among older voters in Alabama.

They didn't turn out to support Roy Moore to showcase his service and sacrifice during the War in Vietnam, other than one random lawyer from New Jersey.

USMC blood is thick, it got us onto an airplane flight when all the gates were closed down in San Diego, when my wife was wearing a USMC hoodie after we flew down to visit our son-in-law that was in a coma after having an allergic reaction to all the vaccines they jacked him up with two weeks before he was scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan.

It's pretty telling that Roy Moore's "Vietnam Story" was pretty bunk to start with and Steve Bannon railing against Mitt Romney for not serving during 'Nam (WTF ?).

Roy Moore lost a good chunk of the Military Vet vote in Alabama, likely because his military "history" during the war was already out there an exposed as another puke crap Captain from some University who doesn't understand s**t about the War, but still wants to send us all out to die on Patrols, and running Article 15s like a total a**hole.

[NOVA Green]

Alabama 2017 US-SEN Precinct Review # 6: Morgan County:

 

As I posted elsewhere prior to the election, Doug Jones uphill road to victory would be likely reliant not just on heavy African-American turnout, depressed turnout among White Evangelicals in rural areas, flipping White Middle-Class voters in the larger Cities and Suburbs of the State, but also performing well in Northern Alabama (Not just Huntsville) and regaining a good chunk of the Al Gore 2000 vote from Ancestral Democrats in the old TVA "New Deal" part of Alabama.

If we look at the US Presidential election results for Morgan County from 2000 to 2016, as well as the 2012 Supreme Court Race, we see that Doug Jones actually hit the numbers he needed within the County.



Although the larger Metro Areas and College Communities got a disproportionate amount of attention from the Media and Pundits alike, when you look at places like Morgan County (Pop 120k), or Calhoun County (Pop 120k) which I covered earlier, these votes all add up and it is all fine and dandy to run up the numbers in places like Metro Birmingham, Mobile, Huntsville, the Black Belt, but you'll run out of steam if you get killed by insane margins in places like this.

Before we start going into the precinct results in greater detail, let's review the demographic profile of the County:

Race/Ethnicity:



These numbers get even starker once you break them down by Age:



Median Household Income Relative to Alabama:



So doing really well compared to most parts of the State in terms of household Income....



Heavily dependent on Manufacturing....



and lower rate of educational attainment than Alabama as a whole....

So, what does the precinct level data show from Morgan County???

Let's start with the % of votes by Place within the County in 2016 and 2017:





So we see the largest City of Decatur going from a 30-32% vote share between '16 and '17, rural areas holding steady at 42% of the County Vote Share, minor changes in Hartselle and Priceville, and the provisional and absentee vote going down dramatically (Likely predominately voters in Decatur).

Now, here are the total vote numbers by place in '16/'17:





Here is a graphical format that shows the swings and percentages among communities in the County:



So the obvious thing that jumps out here:

1.) Decatur the largest single community within the County swung hard Democrat between 2016 and 2017 going from (39-57 Trump) to (56-43 Jones) for a 32% vote swing....

2.) The total Democratic vote numbers increased in all communities within the County (Other than Decatur, which we will get back to shortly), even in rural areas, meaning that you had a not insignificant number of Trump > Jones voters.

3.) The Republican Vote completely collapsed between '16 and '17, regardless of the impact of Trump > Jones voters (We'll come back to that one as well).

Now let's take a look at demographic data briefly from the largest City in the County before breaking down the precinct results from the City:

Decatur, Alabama:

Pop 56k....

Pop by Race/Ethnicity:



Household Income by place Decatur and Morgan County:



Not nearly as well off as most other parts of the County...

Workforce by Industry:



Slightly lower rate of manufacturing than the County as a whole, slightly higher rates of construction, as well as retail and service sector jobs....

Educational Attainment:



Higher than the County average and basically mirrors numbers from Alabama at large....

Decatur Alabama Precinct Results:

So how did the heavily African-American precincts of Decatur vote in 2016 and 2017?

US Census Tracts:



Precinct Results:



So, we see roughly a 20% decrease in the Democratic vote in the heaviest African-American precincts of Decatur, which equate to virtually the entire drop in the total Democratic numbers within the City of Decatur....

How did heavily White wealthier precincts within Decatur vote in 2016 and 2017?

Median Household Income by Census Tracts:



Here are precinct numbers for Decatur Alabama....



So there are four precincts highlighted in Blue, where Doug Jones added votes compared to HRC's '16 numbers....

Several precincts stand out.... Precinct #17 (TC Almon Rec Center) is an overwhelmingly White precinct, with an MHI of almost $73k/yr where Dems expanded their total vote numbers 44% between '16 and '17 (20% HRC- 75% DJT) to (38% Jones- 59% Moore).

It's still the most Republican precinct in the City, but damn those margin swings make the +20% HRC margin swings in places like the Upper-Income White 'Burbs of Chattanooga, Knoxville, and various places in Texas, look like child's play.

Float down to precinct # 10 (Decatur Baptist Church), overwhelmingly White with an MHI of some $ 70k /Yr (25-71% Trump), (44-54% Moore)....

Now lest anyone thinking I'm obsessed with how Upper-Middle Class White 'Bamans voted in 2017, head on over to Precinct # 16 (Oak Park Baptist Church)....

The MHI here is only about $ 40k/ Yr (23-72% Trump) suddenly goes (44-52% Moore)....

So what does this all mean?   In Northern Alabama, at least in the largest City in Morgan County, we saw a Universal swing among White voters towards Doug Jones, regardless of social and economic class, with major gains in raw votes among Upper-Income and Working-Class White precincts alike....

This is certainly not insignificant, as I stated earlier, it would be virtually impossible for Doug Jones to win, without bringing these voters back home, especially in an Ancestral Democratic part of Alabama.

Ok... enough talk about Decatur, what the hell happened in the rest of the County?

Let's look at the 2nd largest City in the County, Hartselle (Pop 14.4k)

Overwhelmingly White (93% vs 4% African-American), fairly wealthy part of the County (MHI $ 51.4k/Yr), 33% have a College Degree, 24% of the population works in manufacturing, higher than normal population of occupations in items such as Engineering...

So the problem here is that the two precincts also include a bunch of surrounding rural areas, so it doesn't give us a complete picture compared to US Census Data...



Now let's take a look at the wealthiest City within Morgan County....

Priceville---- MHI $ 79.2k/Yr, 93% White, 42% with a College or two year degree, occupations and industries have strong correlations with professional occupations and manufacturing industries....



We have similar issues as with Hartselle in that you have these surrounding rural areas that are included within municipal election precinct boundaries, so swings within the City itself are likely much larger than suggested by the Precinct results.

Last stop... Rural areas (42% of the County Vote)....

So the term rural gets a bit tricky, since after staring at precinct maps and Census tract data for a few hours, I can tell you there is at least one precinct and probably a second that technically are more likely "Exurban in Nature" where Doug Jones gained a decent chunk of Trump voters, but hell trying to segregate these wasn't the main focus of the project.

Important take-aways from Rural precincts.... Roy Moore saw roughly a 45% decrease in total Republican Vote compared to the 2016 General Election, within the most overwhelmingly Republican Part of the County (42% of total County Vote), meanwhile it looks like the Jones campaign was able to get just about every last Democrat out to vote in just about all of these rural precincts (!!!), which is an impressive organizing endeavor in and of itself.

The Jones campaign was running like this was General Election turnout campaign in Alabama, and the Moore campaign was sitting there with their thumbs up their derrieres thinking name recognition and Special Election turnout levels would be enough to get the job done (This was even before the sexual assault allegations hit).

Now there is one rural precinct that was eliminated (Ebenezzer Volunteer Fire Department) and consolidated with the Morgan County election precinct (So ignore the data for those two---- I'm already aware of that and it doesn't change much other than just the total vote, margins, and % numbers for those two precincts between '16 and '17).



Anyways, hope all of y'alls appreciate the work I did on this, took me a couple hours to pull this all together, and now that the election has been certified, I would much rather spend my time dissecting the results of the US-Senate election in Alabama than all this other wrangling that has been dominating this thread for well over a month now.