Post Random US Election County Maps Here

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is the gray County in NorthEast Iowa supposed to signify a tie?

yes

The total number of McGovern and Nixon votes in the County that year was an odd number. There is no way it could have been tied.
McGovern won there using your swing method.

[Metalhead123]

Is the gray County in NorthEast Iowa supposed to signify a tie?

yes

The total number of McGovern and Nixon votes in the County that year was an odd number. There is no way it could have been tied.
McGovern won there using your swing method.

i was purely using the percentages given by the sight. But yes you are right. I got a little lazy there tbh lol

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Evan McMullin wins Utah


Donald Trump/Mike Pence 45.94% 298 EVs
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 48.17% 227 EVs
Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn: 0.72% 6 EVs
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld: 3.27% 0 EVs
Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka: 1.07% 0 EVs
Others: 0.84% 0 EVs

Methods: Here is my McMullin wins Utah map. I wanted him to win by about a percent (in this case, 0.98%). In this scenario, McMullin makes it on the ballot in Wyoming, Nevada, and Arizona in addition to the states that he was in in real life. I figure that adding him in other states isn’t worth the effort due to the small numbers of Mormons in other states. A while back, I found that the correlation of Mormons times the % of people with a college degree in the county tracked McMullin’s results pretty closely (r^2 equals about 0.78). I used that model times 1.6446715 to get the expected percent that McMullin received in a county in Nevada, Wyoming, and Arizona. For Idaho and Utah, I used an average of the model (Mormon * College) and the actual results and then multiplied by that 1.64 number to get the expected percentage by county. I picked this number (1.6446715) because it approximated the amount of votes that McMullin needed to gain in order to win Utah by about a percent.

Once I found how many votes I expected McMullin to get, I subtracted those from the other candidates (85% from Trump, 10% from Johnson, and 5% from Clinton). In the case of Nevada, which has a None of the Above option, I guesstimated 40% of those would’ve voted McMullin and prioritized using those votes for McMullin’s total. In Nevada, I subtracted the difference (modeled-40% of NotA) and then subtracted the result from Trump, Johnson, and Clinton in the proportions described earlier. For Wyoming, I used a similar method, but I assumed that 50% of the unlisted write-ins were for McMullin. [Side note: One of my bigger small regrets is that I didn’t fork out $100 or so to the Wyoming SoS right after the election for them to count the write-ins for McMullin. Oh well.] Arizona was cool in that they listed McMullin write-ins for all counties, so I took those out of the number of votes that I needed to take away from other candidates.

To my friends on Atlas, I apologize for the flipped colors. Blame Wikipedia. Speaking of which, is there a good county template to use? There’s some artifacts on the current map due to the way the colors changed slightly around the edges of the counties; these are especially noticeable on the counties that flipped.

Analysis: McMullin obviously does a lot better in Utah (35.05%) and Idaho (10.44%), where he manages to win some counties. I am actually kind of surprised that McMullin only won 4 counties in Utah. Granted, 3 of them are in the top 6 by population. I was slightly disappointed that he only won a single county in Idaho, but it’s better than nothing (he didn’t even win any precincts there in the real results).

Looking at Nevada, he got 2.06%, which wasn’t enough to do more than shift some Trump 70% counties down to the 60% range. Notably, McMullin got 12.85% in Lincoln County and 5.09% in White Pine County.

Wyoming doesn’t see that much of a change. The most notable change is that Johnson drops under 5%, coming in at 4.96%. McMullin’s 3.62% is concentrated in the counties with large Mormon populations (big surprise there). Only the most Mormon counties had any change (in this case, they all dropped from Trump 70% to Trump 60%). McMullin broke 5% in 5 counties and 10% in 3 of those counties.

Arizona also saw little real change. Only one county even changed percentage bins (Navajo County went from Trump 50% to Trump 40%). The biggest thing here is that the relatively narrow margin between Trump and Clinton shrinks from 3.50% to 2.40%. McMullin polled 2.04% in Arizona.

Overall, a whopping 7 counties flipped. Two from Trump to Clinton and five from Trump to McMullin.

Issues: My data was missing Mormon percentages for a few counties. I looked at surrounding counties and just kinda made a number that seemed consistent with neighboring counties. In Wayne County, UT, my model showed that Johnson would have received -5 votes, which just isn’t possible. I fudged the numbers and added in 3 votes each from Stein and Other. A few counties in Nevada had more votes from the 40% of NotA, so I went with the higher number, which resulted in McMullin getting about 36 extra votes than he would’ve from my base model (big whoop). I also lost a total of 7 votes due to rounding in Idaho that I didn’t really feel like dealing with finding.

It’s also comical how hard it is to get consistent numbers even on Wikipedia. I’m not sure that the numbers on their table add up to 100%. I also probably missed taking some votes off when I added them to the huge clunky national popular vote table and I may have screwed something up. Not sure and it’s just after midnight when I’m writing this after spending most of the evening on this. Some of the calculations for the nationwide popular vote may be slightly off because of those issues.

Data Sources: Slate's Mormon map
Unsure about college education for Utah and Idaho; I had that info a long time before and I can’t find where I got it from. The numbers are fairly close to the census bureau’s though.
https://www.census.gov/censusexplorer/censusexplorer.html
For election results, I used Wikipedia for Nevada, Arizona, and Utah because it was easy to copy/paste into excel, for Idaho and Wyoming I used their SoS websites, because Wiki doesn’t have it by county. I also used the AZ SoS for McMullin write ins. I used USElectionAtlas for the “other” votes in Arizona (non-McMullin write-ins). https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/2016/General/president_by_county.html
http://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2016/2016GeneralResults.aspx
http://apps.azsos.gov/election/2016/Info/ElectionInformation.htm

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Evan McMullin wins Utah


Donald Trump/Mike Pence 45.94% 298 EVs
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 48.17% 227 EVs
Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn: 0.72% 6 EVs
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld: 3.27% 0 EVs
Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka: 1.07% 0 EVs
Others: 0.84% 0 EVs

Methods: Here is my McMullin wins Utah map. I wanted him to win by about a percent (in this case, 0.98%). In this scenario, McMullin makes it on the ballot in Wyoming, Nevada, and Arizona in addition to the states that he was in in real life. I figure that adding him in other states isn’t worth the effort due to the small numbers of Mormons in other states. A while back, I found that the correlation of Mormons times the % of people with a college degree in the county tracked McMullin’s results pretty closely (r^2 equals about 0.78). I used that model times 1.6446715 to get the expected percent that McMullin received in a county in Nevada, Wyoming, and Arizona. For Idaho and Utah, I used an average of the model (Mormon * College) and the actual results and then multiplied by that 1.64 number to get the expected percentage by county. I picked this number (1.6446715) because it approximated the amount of votes that McMullin needed to gain in order to win Utah by about a percent.

Once I found how many votes I expected McMullin to get, I subtracted those from the other candidates (85% from Trump, 10% from Johnson, and 5% from Clinton). In the case of Nevada, which has a None of the Above option, I guesstimated 40% of those would’ve voted McMullin and prioritized using those votes for McMullin’s total. In Nevada, I subtracted the difference (modeled-40% of NotA) and then subtracted the result from Trump, Johnson, and Clinton in the proportions described earlier. For Wyoming, I used a similar method, but I assumed that 50% of the unlisted write-ins were for McMullin. [Side note: One of my bigger small regrets is that I didn’t fork out $100 or so to the Wyoming SoS right after the election for them to count the write-ins for McMullin. Oh well.] Arizona was cool in that they listed McMullin write-ins for all counties, so I took those out of the number of votes that I needed to take away from other candidates.

To my friends on Atlas, I apologize for the flipped colors. Blame Wikipedia. Speaking of which, is there a good county template to use? There’s some artifacts on the current map due to the way the colors changed slightly around the edges of the counties; these are especially noticeable on the counties that flipped.

Analysis: McMullin obviously does a lot better in Utah (35.05%) and Idaho (10.44%), where he manages to win some counties. I am actually kind of surprised that McMullin only won 4 counties in Utah. Granted, 3 of them are in the top 6 by population. I was slightly disappointed that he only won a single county in Idaho, but it’s better than nothing (he didn’t even win any precincts there in the real results).

Looking at Nevada, he got 2.06%, which wasn’t enough to do more than shift some Trump 70% counties down to the 60% range. Notably, McMullin got 12.85% in Lincoln County and 5.09% in White Pine County.

Wyoming doesn’t see that much of a change. The most notable change is that Johnson drops under 5%, coming in at 4.96%. McMullin’s 3.62% is concentrated in the counties with large Mormon populations (big surprise there). Only the most Mormon counties had any change (in this case, they all dropped from Trump 70% to Trump 60%). McMullin broke 5% in 5 counties and 10% in 3 of those counties.

Arizona also saw little real change. Only one county even changed percentage bins (Navajo County went from Trump 50% to Trump 40%). The biggest thing here is that the relatively narrow margin between Trump and Clinton shrinks from 3.50% to 2.40%. McMullin polled 2.04% in Arizona.

Overall, a whopping 7 counties flipped. Two from Trump to Clinton and five from Trump to McMullin.

Issues: My data was missing Mormon percentages for a few counties. I looked at surrounding counties and just kinda made a number that seemed consistent with neighboring counties. In Wayne County, UT, my model showed that Johnson would have received -5 votes, which just isn’t possible. I fudged the numbers and added in 3 votes each from Stein and Other. A few counties in Nevada had more votes from the 40% of NotA, so I went with the higher number, which resulted in McMullin getting about 36 extra votes than he would’ve from my base model (big whoop). I also lost a total of 7 votes due to rounding in Idaho that I didn’t really feel like dealing with finding.

It’s also comical how hard it is to get consistent numbers even on Wikipedia. I’m not sure that the numbers on their table add up to 100%. I also probably missed taking some votes off when I added them to the huge clunky national popular vote table and I may have screwed something up. Not sure and it’s just after midnight when I’m writing this after spending most of the evening on this. Some of the calculations for the nationwide popular vote may be slightly off because of those issues.

Data Sources: Slate's Mormon map
Unsure about college education for Utah and Idaho; I had that info a long time before and I can’t find where I got it from. The numbers are fairly close to the census bureau’s though.
https://www.census.gov/censusexplorer/censusexplorer.html
For election results, I used Wikipedia for Nevada, Arizona, and Utah because it was easy to copy/paste into excel, for Idaho and Wyoming I used their SoS websites, because Wiki doesn’t have it by county. I also used the AZ SoS for McMullin write ins. I used USElectionAtlas for the “other” votes in Arizona (non-McMullin write-ins). https://sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/2016/General/president_by_county.html
http://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/2016/2016GeneralResults.aspx
http://apps.azsos.gov/election/2016/Info/ElectionInformation.htm

Could you do a map for if Gary Johnson won the states where he got at least 5% of the vote?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

(Snipped)

Could you do a map for if Gary Johnson won the states where he got at least 5% of the vote?

I might consider it, but it would definitely take some time. Also, I'm not really sure how to model it. McMullin's votes correlate pretty well with areas of high Mormon members and high college education, but I'd have to figure out how to model Johnson voters. The other issue is who should I take votes from? McMullin was fairly straight forward since he is still pretty conservative, so I mostly took votes from Trump. I'm not sure if there's anything to guide me in that aspect for Johnson. I remember seeing something about who third party voters would've picked in 2016, but I can't remember where I saw it and I'm thinking it just had them lumped together and not separated. Compiling data for all counties would take a considerable amount of time. I only did about 130 counties for this model versus the 3150ish nationwide. Granted, I can just drag and drop formulas in excel, but it would still take time that I'm not sure I feel like spending.

There's also the issue that Johnson broke 5% in a number of states that vary quite widely in terms of how they voted.

What is more likely is that I could do a map of Johnson winning New Mexico and the vote shifts that would be responsible for that. I would probably butterfly away "Aleppo" and have him take a bit more from Trump. It would probably result in a Clinton victory.

Also, a side note: McMullin won less than 1 million votes. I will say that this doesn't account for increasing his support nationwide, so he almost certainly would've broken 1 million votes (he only needed 20,000 more) and may have gotten close to Stein's performance.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

(Snipped)

Could you do a map for if Gary Johnson won the states where he got at least 5% of the vote?

I might consider it, but it would definitely take some time. Also, I'm not really sure how to model it. McMullin's votes correlate pretty well with areas of high Mormon members and high college education, but I'd have to figure out how to model Johnson voters. The other issue is who should I take votes from? McMullin was fairly straight forward since he is still pretty conservative, so I mostly took votes from Trump. I'm not sure if there's anything to guide me in that aspect for Johnson. I remember seeing something about who third party voters would've picked in 2016, but I can't remember where I saw it and I'm thinking it just had them lumped together and not separated. Compiling data for all counties would take a considerable amount of time. I only did about 130 counties for this model versus the 3150ish nationwide. Granted, I can just drag and drop formulas in excel, but it would still take time that I'm not sure I feel like spending.

There's also the issue that Johnson broke 5% in a number of states that vary quite widely in terms of how they voted.

What is more likely is that I could do a map of Johnson winning New Mexico and the vote shifts that would be responsible for that. I would probably butterfly away "Aleppo" and have him take a bit more from Trump. It would probably result in a Clinton victory.

Also, a side note: McMullin won less than 1 million votes. I will say that this doesn't account for increasing his support nationwide, so he almost certainly would've broken 1 million votes (he only needed 20,000 more) and may have gotten close to Stein's performance.

Might this be helpful:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/8/1755454/-2008-2016-US-Presidential-Election-by-County-all-in-a-single-spreadsheet

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is a minor obsession of mine, so I'll go first with this:



What Trump vs Sanders would've looked like based solely on polls.

Could you please post the state results? Thanks.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Looks like a composite of 2000-2008 or something like that.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

This is a minor obsession of mine, so I'll go first with this:



What Trump vs Sanders would've looked like based solely on polls.

Could you please post the state results? Thanks.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Looks like a composite of 2000-2008 or something like that.

Its not.
Look at the image title.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Looks like a composite of 2000-2008 or something like that.

Its not.
Look at the image title.

Oops, I'm dumb

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is a minor obsession of mine, so I'll go first with this:



What Trump vs Sanders would've looked like based solely on polls.

Could you please post the state results? Thanks.

Do you know we’re I can create a map like this?

[YPestis25]

This is a minor obsession of mine, so I'll go first with this:

Snip

What Trump vs Sanders would've looked like based solely on polls.

Could you please post the state results? Thanks.

Snip

Do you know we’re I can create a map like this?

You can follow this link: https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

After making your map, click the "Show Map Link" button and paste the link it gives into whichever thread you want it in.

Welcome to the forum!

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is a minor obsession of mine, so I'll go first with this:

Snip

What Trump vs Sanders would've looked like based solely on polls.

Could you please post the state results? Thanks.

Snip

Do you know we’re I can create a map like this?

You can follow this link: https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

After making your map, click the "Show Map Link" button and paste the link it gives into whichever thread you want it in.

Welcome to the forum!

No, I mean a county map.

[UlmerFudd]

This is a minor obsession of mine, so I'll go first with this:

Snip

What Trump vs Sanders would've looked like based solely on polls.

Could you please post the state results? Thanks.

Snip

Do you know we’re I can create a map like this?

You can follow this link: https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

After making your map, click the "Show Map Link" button and paste the link it gives into whichever thread you want it in.

Welcome to the forum!

No, I mean a county map.

https://mapchart.net/usa-counties.html

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Take 5% of the vote away from McCain and give it to Obama.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Take 5% of the vote away from McCain and give it to Obama.

I've actually made a map for this exact scenario with shaded margins. it's fascinating how McCain still wins so many counties even as Obama is winning ~57% of the NPV.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here's what it would have looked life if Johnson had swept the Deep South in 1964

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

Take 5% of the vote away from McCain and give it to Obama.

How many EVs does Obama get?

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Take 5% of the vote away from McCain and give it to Obama.

How many EVs does Obama get?

He flips MO, MT, GA, SD, AZ, ND, and SC.

[Calthrina950]

Here's what it would have looked life if Johnson had swept the Deep South in 1964

It's amazing how few counties Johnson would have needed to win Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here's what it would have looked life if Johnson had swept the Deep South in 1964

It's amazing how few counties Johnson would have needed to win Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

In Mississippi, Johnson gets at least 40% in every county so his support is spread out fairly evenly, which allows him to win with relatively few counties. In Alabama, Johnson wins overwhelming victories in Northern 'Bama while keeping the highly populated Jefferson, Shelby, Montgomery, and Mobile counties close. The South Carolina map is actually somewhat reminiscent of JFK's 1960 victory in the state.

[TNcon4]

As promised.
https://i.gyazo.com/05973f9cd04304255ffee7e5f3fd6be9.png

A few things to notice

- Black Belt in AL, an R+13 (presumably) votes for Sewell
- Cheney's under performance in Southern (ancestrally Democratic) Wyoming