Post Random US Election County Maps Here
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Post Random US Election County Maps Here
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Author Topic: Post Random US Election County Maps Here  (Read 64498 times)
Metalhead123
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« Reply #550 on: April 26, 2018, 09:41:37 AM »

This is 1968 with all of George Wallace's votes removed. I made this using ourcampaigns.com due to them having a feature where you can remove votes for a candidate. Ourcampaigns is not the most reliable source for election data but it was accurate enough to be useable. If i noticed that the results for a county we wrong, I would use data from this site. Next map will be all of Humphrey's votes removed.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #551 on: April 26, 2018, 10:14:44 AM »

As promised.
https://i.gyazo.com/05973f9cd04304255ffee7e5f3fd6be9.png

A few things to notice

- Black Belt in AL, an R+13 (presumably) votes for Sewell
- Cheney's under performance in Southern (ancestrally Democratic) Wyoming
This is very cool, how did you calculate the results though?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #552 on: April 26, 2018, 10:19:18 AM »

This is 1968 with all of George Wallace's votes removed. I made this using ourcampaigns.com due to them having a feature where you can remove votes for a candidate. Ourcampaigns is not the most reliable source for election data but it was accurate enough to be useable. If i noticed that the results for a county we wrong, I would use data from this site. Next map will be all of Humphrey's votes removed.
What are the margins in Alabama and Mississippi?
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #553 on: April 26, 2018, 10:39:10 AM »

This is 1968 with all of George Wallace's votes removed. I made this using ourcampaigns.com due to them having a feature where you can remove votes for a candidate. Ourcampaigns is not the most reliable source for election data but it was accurate enough to be useable. If i noticed that the results for a county we wrong, I would use data from this site. Next map will be all of Humphrey's votes removed.
What are the margins in Alabama and Mississippi?
I couldn't tell you. Id have to calculate that. I know that Humphrey wins Alabama and Mississippi in this map.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #554 on: April 26, 2018, 02:10:54 PM »

This is 1968 with all of George Wallace's votes removed. I made this using ourcampaigns.com due to them having a feature where you can remove votes for a candidate. Ourcampaigns is not the most reliable source for election data but it was accurate enough to be useable. If i noticed that the results for a county we wrong, I would use data from this site. Next map will be all of Humphrey's votes removed.
What are the margins in Alabama and Mississippi?
I couldn't tell you. Id have to calculate that. I know that Humphrey wins Alabama and Mississippi in this map.
The Alabama map is reminding me of 1928, when Smith only won by about 4%.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #555 on: April 26, 2018, 10:08:46 PM »

This is 1968 with all of George Wallace's votes removed. I made this using ourcampaigns.com due to them having a feature where you can remove votes for a candidate. Ourcampaigns is not the most reliable source for election data but it was accurate enough to be useable. If i noticed that the results for a county we wrong, I would use data from this site. Next map will be all of Humphrey's votes removed.

What does the electoral map look like here?
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Canis
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« Reply #556 on: May 03, 2018, 02:01:21 AM »

Could you do a map for if Gary Johnson won the states where he got at least 5% of the vote?

I might consider it, but it would definitely take some time. Also, I'm not really sure how to model it. McMullin's votes correlate pretty well with areas of high Mormon members and high college education, but I'd have to figure out how to model Johnson voters. The other issue is who should I take votes from? McMullin was fairly straight forward since he is still pretty conservative, so I mostly took votes from Trump. I'm not sure if there's anything to guide me in that aspect for Johnson. I remember seeing something about who third party voters would've picked in 2016, but I can't remember where I saw it and I'm thinking it just had them lumped together and not separated. Compiling data for all counties would take a considerable amount of time. I only did about 130 counties for this model versus the 3150ish nationwide. Granted, I can just drag and drop formulas in excel, but it would still take time that I'm not sure I feel like spending.

There's also the issue that Johnson broke 5% in a number of states that vary quite widely in terms of how they voted.

What is more likely is that I could do a map of Johnson winning New Mexico and the vote shifts that would be responsible for that. I would probably butterfly away "Aleppo" and have him take a bit more from Trump. It would probably result in a Clinton victory.

Also, a side note: McMullin won less than 1 million votes. I will say that this doesn't account for increasing his support nationwide, so he almost certainly would've broken 1 million votes (he only needed 20,000 more) and may have gotten close to Stein's performance.
Please do if Johnson carried new mexico
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #557 on: May 03, 2018, 05:59:29 PM »



Id like to give you guys a preview of what Im currently working on because its so interesting. What I have done here is I took two maps (a county map and a congressional district map that are the same size and style) and merged them. What Im doing is putting in the results by county in the districts. I would like to also do this with other elections but I cant find congressional maps of a similar size and style with old boundaries. If anyone could help me find congressional maps of a similar size and style with old congressional boundaries, that would be great. The green color is for independents and other parties, and yellow and orange are for races that are Democrat v Democrat or Republican V Republican. Ive been using Ourcampaigns to get the county results
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #558 on: May 04, 2018, 05:11:27 PM »

County results for South Carolina house elections in 2008
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bagelman
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« Reply #559 on: May 05, 2018, 01:41:08 PM »



https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/AVA-2017-Figure_5.png downshifted by 10 points and third party voted simulated
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Grassroots
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« Reply #560 on: May 05, 2018, 06:30:53 PM »

Evan McMullin wins Utah


Donald Trump/Mike Pence 45.94% 298 EVs
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 48.17% 227 EVs
Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn: 0.72% 6 EVs
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld: 3.27% 0 EVs
Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka: 1.07% 0 EVs
Others: 0.84% 0 EVs


How do you make maps like this?
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West_Midlander
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« Reply #561 on: May 08, 2018, 10:59:43 AM »

California gubernatorial election, 2018
This is the runoff because there's no President Infinity mechanic for a jungle primary. I played as Rice. I began a 100+ day campaign as a minor underdog, down in the polls by a few points but I had about $25 million in the bank and 4/5 for most campaign stats. I upgraded research and ads to the max of five, campaigned (policy speeches) and rallied in close areas. In the middle and later part of the race I began coming out with web ads and a ton of insight upgraded tv ads (positive and negative ads). I didn't try much to keep up debate/issue skills but Condi's stats held up allowing her a wide margin of victory in the first debate, though a draw in the second debate and a small loss in the third (overshadowed by an adstorm for her (my) campaign). Rice led by as much as five and as little as <1% once she got in the lead but she held onto it for the final two months of the campaign. The result was fair, a bit closer than I expected, and a decent win.

Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - Republican - 52% (+12%) - 7,538,108 (+4,608,895)
Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom - Democratic - 48% (-12%) - 6,954,373 (+2,566,005)
(change for party from 2014)
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #562 on: May 09, 2018, 08:22:02 AM »

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018
Played as Stein. I think ITTL Stein is probably in a good position to run for some lower office, US House is solid Democratic for Massachusetts (if she doesn't pursue the presidency again) she could run for US Senate, State Senate, or some other office in MA (state or federal). Though perhaps a leftward challenge for a House seat is possible, encompassing some of the counties she did best in. Best county (29%, 2nd place). Worst county (9%, third place). Stein got into the gubernatorial debate (exceeded 10% in the polls, was at 13-14) and won the debate by a wide margin. On election day, Stein had been averaging just under 15% in the polls and was polling 6% in her worst county.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #563 on: May 09, 2018, 06:02:15 PM »

Evan McMullin wins Utah


Donald Trump/Mike Pence 45.94% 298 EVs
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 48.17% 227 EVs
Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn: 0.72% 6 EVs
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld: 3.27% 0 EVs
Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka: 1.07% 0 EVs
Others: 0.84% 0 EVs


How do you make maps like this?

MS Paint and a hell of a lot of patience. I took a screenshot of the area I needed from the 2016 county map that Wiki has, then I erased everything that wasn't the five states I modeled. I used my modeled numbers to guide the changes. Unfortunately there are artifacts around the edges of the counties whose results changed (especially if a different candidate won). I was able to go pixel by pixel and remove the larger clusters, but there's still some left.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #564 on: May 10, 2018, 12:33:01 PM »

@West_Midlander

I assume if Stein actually wanted to run for lower Office she'd try and run for a State Senate/State House seat in Franklin County or Hampshire County
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #565 on: May 10, 2018, 08:19:18 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2018, 08:25:29 PM by West_Midlander »

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014
I found an AZ gubernatorial scenario for 2014 on the 270soft website and decided to give it a go as a third party. I think the scenario was published despite being somewhat of a WIP as Stein was still listed as the candidate for the Greens with the same blurb as the default 2016 presidential one. For the purposes of this alternate timeline, I'll say the candidate was in fact Angel Torres, one of the sitting chairs of the Arizona Greens. Though I just found out the Greens had their party status revoked in 2012 due to poor performance and did not regain it until 2016 so this is technically an "Independent Green" campaign similar to how Greens ran occasionally as unaffiliated and were endorsed by the State Green Party in my home state of North Carolina.

Doug Ducey - Republican: 35.7% (661,838 votes)
Fred DuVal - Democratic: 34.7% (641,654 votes)
Angel Torres - Independent (Green): 23.1% (428,224 votes)
John Lewis Mealer - Americans Elect: 3.3% (61,672 votes)
Barry Hess - Libertarian: 3.1% (58,321 votes)
Greens got in the higher teens and especially 20s in most counties (percentage). Greens won the vote by more than 3% in Greenlee County, Democrats came last of five parties in Greenlee Co. with two percent of the vote. It was 44-35 in Graham County with Democrats in a distant third at less than 10%. Greens were a distant third in Apache County and a close third in Navajo County (double digits in both and above 20% in NV). In Coconino County, Greens were second place. The same was so in Gila and Pinal Counties. In Santa Cruz County, Greens were a distant third and in the single digits, their worst performance. In Cochise County, Greens were third. In Pima County, Greens were fourth, falling slightly behind even the Americans Elect group with over 14% each. In Yavapai County, Greens were third. In La Paz and Mohave Counties, Greens were in a distant third. Greens were in second in Yuma County. In the big Maricopa County prize, Greens were a close third to the GOP. This is where the Democrats nearly caught up statewide. Polling about 17% by the time the debates came around, Greens exceeded the 15% to get into the debates. Torres won all three gubernatorial debates by large margins though the running mate was listed as "Various Greens" so I assumed there wouldn't be a VP/running mate debate. There was and I found out with enough advance in order to get a decent second place finish 2/3 for the running mate. I think the 3 P debate to 1 VP debate is leftover from the 2016 default campaign in PI for President. I had falsely assumed, at first, that there would be one or more gubernatorial candidate-only debates as the MA scenario I played previously had a sole debate for the candidate and no running mate.
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #566 on: May 11, 2018, 09:27:23 AM »

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018

Played as Setti Warren and defeated Charlie Baker in a close one. I gained a lead of several points in the polls and won the endorsements of the vast majority of endorsers and won the gubernatorial debate. Though debate attacks on Baker backfired and boosted him. A bit before that I had also stopped running ads because without active fundraising, due to momentum and support my funds amount was rising quicker than I could spent it and it felt like I was just treading water. By the end of the campaign, I ended with a $26.3 million campaign surplus which would've allowed me to run 30+, probably almost 40 statewide TV ads (the most expensive ads out of TV, radio, newspaper and web ads).
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #567 on: May 11, 2018, 08:37:08 PM »

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #568 on: May 12, 2018, 04:54:21 AM »


What does this depict?
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #569 on: May 12, 2018, 04:12:44 PM »


It's another preview for Center Outward.
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Canis
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« Reply #570 on: May 14, 2018, 01:29:56 AM »

 
California Republican Primary with all Donald Trump Votes removed Blue is Kasich Green is Cruz Kasich narrowly wins
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #571 on: May 16, 2018, 12:25:25 PM »

Here is a large landslide loosely based on the 1992 election with elements from other elections to make it look better.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #572 on: May 19, 2018, 04:12:50 PM »



Here is the results of the 2016 congressional election by county. these are the results in each district so you can see how part of a county voted in one district as apposed to how it voted in another district.  I used atlas colors here. Green is for independents and yellow/orange are for open primaries or runoffs. 
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Solid4096
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« Reply #573 on: May 20, 2018, 09:45:04 AM »

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #574 on: May 20, 2018, 04:04:20 PM »


Clinton wins PV by 10ish?
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