Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

Main takeaways:

- The system is broken. We now have a four-party coalition that will need another party to support it in the Senate. This means the center parties will become increasingly indistinguishable from each other. Jesse Klaver will now have to try to avoid that fate. Of course, a bigger problem with our system is already that we essentially cannot vote our government out and there is never a clear ideological alternative to any government. But this is even more of a problem when you need five or six parties for a coalition in the first place. System change is unlikely to happen, so at least parties should be more open to innovations within the current system such as minority governments.

- The far-right has its best election result in the Netherlands to date with 21.3% combined, breaking the record of the 2002 GE. Forum and PVV have 18 Senate seats, almost as many as the center-right VVD and CDA combined: 21. At some point, VVD and CDA, who could still form a government together in the 80s and are the main electoral victims of the rise of the far-right, will presumably look right rather than left. Building a coalition with Forum would be difficult but not impossible. But first, Forum needs to win over more PVV votes (as well as VVD and CDA votes, of course). The dynamics between Wilders and Baudet seem to work quite well for Baudet, who is perceived as the "good cop" and more moderate than Wilders. But the bottom is falling out of the PVV level of support.

The first half of Thierry's speech with subtitles can be found here (but the second part is actually even better).

[Former President tack50]

I know this is the Netherlands, but yikes is that parliament divided!

And unlike in Belgium (also very divided, but on linguistic lines) there doesn't seem to be any way to easily consolidate the parties.

[warandwar]

Baudet didn't hold back in his epic 20-minute victory speech, in which he presented the metaphor of the Owl of Minerva flying out when the sun sets. This stands for Forum's rise in politics: it is almost too late, but now Forum is here to turn the tide.

Yes, Aufheben indeed - European bourgeois thought reaching its telos - a YouTube philosophy bro misquoting Hegel while celebrating a group of new racist oafs gaining votes from older racist oafs.

[Zinneke]

I know this is the Netherlands, but yikes is that parliament divided!

And unlike in Belgium (also very divided, but on linguistic lines) there doesn't seem to be any way to easily consolidate the parties.

People overestimate the differences, especially in terms of personal relationships and foreign policy, between the "Kunduz" club (sitting government + GL and PvdA) a lot. In this sense Baudet is absolutely correct. Belgium is much more structurally "provincialised" in its politics.

[DavidB.]

Baudet didn't hold back in his epic 20-minute victory speech, in which he presented the metaphor of the Owl of Minerva flying out when the sun sets. This stands for Forum's rise in politics: it is almost too late, but now Forum is here to turn the tide.

Yes, Aufheben indeed - European bourgeois thought reaching its telos - a YouTube philosophy bro misquoting Hegel while celebrating a group of new racist oafs gaining votes from older racist oafs.

How will we ever recover? We're crying all the way to power

[Oryxslayer]

On your first point, it's just seems that the dutch electoral laws and structural foundationd of 0% threshold and a low total number of votes required to get a seat has finally caught up with the nation. This is after all the full proportional system duverger said would lead to many parties. One just needs to look at forum - a four year rise like that would be close to impossible under other structural arrangements. If this was Germany for example, forum politicians would probably prefer to join them internally coup PVV, rather than form their own brand. Now this isn't a problem, see Israel and it's many minor fronts. But if there is a problem, it's that the Dutch system is still opporating under a 1 party mindset, when it should be time to run as blocks, pre-election coalitions, or other ideological tents.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Wilders were to disappear from the scene, would essentially all his votes flow to Forum, or would his more working class votes balk at voting for Baudet?

[parochial boy]

This is probably a really stupid take re-pillarisation. But is there an argument to be had that part of the reason for the Dutch political scene being so fractured down to the fact it is small, densely inhabited, very closely connected, and sort of seems (especially given the declining salience of religious sectarianism, "traditional" class structures...) to have relatively little cultural heteroginity between regions, especially given how much of the population is concentrated in the Randstad (happy to be pointed out that I am wrong about this of course).

As in, in the Netherlands, there would seem to be particularly little in the way of cultural reasons for people to stay loyal to certain parties in the way you get in other countries?

(like even countries like England or Sweden that don't necessarily have ethnic or linguistic divides you have big cultural and historical divides between, for example North and South that you don't seem to have so much of in the Netherlands? Maybe I'm just ignorant though)

[DavidB.]

But if there is a problem, it's that the Dutch system is still opporating under a 1 party mindset, when it should be time to run as blocks, pre-election coalitions, or other ideological tents.

Yes, we need an innovation like this. Unfortunately it would probably require for the system to change, which simply does not tend to happen in the Netherlands. Though the parties most opposed to change, i.e. the Christian parties and the VVD, are shrinking in size, and the center-left/progressive + far-right have already successfully pushed for small innovations (ending the role of the monarch in the formation + the initial adoption of the referendum).

If Wilders were to disappear from the scene, would essentially all his votes flow to Forum, or would his more working class votes balk at voting for Baudet?

Most of his votes would flow directly to Forum, but there may also be a non-insignificant part that would stay home; others may move to the SP. For now, I think they do better separately than together. Until now, Baudet also profited from being perceived as the less extreme one of the two. Currently the papers are saying Baudet is actually more extreme than Wilders, but it will die down after a while. We'll see what happens.

@parochial_boy: The classic idea is that Westerners and Southerners, who make up the vast majority of the country, are very much inclined to be volatile (though they switch between parties that are ideologically close). Southerners because of depillarization and the subsequent "void" that came into being when it was suddenly okay not to vote KVP anymore, Westerners because we're the most secular and individualized in the first place. I think, but I'm not sure, that it also has to do with the extremely high degree of suburbanization here. Relatively few people really live in rural areas and surprisingly few actually live in cities. Most live in what psephologist Josse De Voogd calls "middenland" - everything in between. These are both the most populous and the most volatile areas, and I do think there is a relation with secularization, individualization, commuting to cities etc.

There absolutely is quite a bit of heterogeneity across the regions, though. In that sense the country can be viewed as consisting of (in declining order of importance) West, South, East and North - generally, the more peripheral the region, the more distinct its profile.

-
The final result is as follows:

PARTIJ   PS2019      PS2015

Forum voor Democratie   1.055.389   14,4 %      0   0,0 %
VVD   1.015.216   13,9 %      965.353   15,8 %
CDA   804.463   11,0 %      891.845   14,6 %
GROENLINKS   780.706   10,7 %      324.572   5,3 %
PVDA   618.941   8,5 %      611.262   10,0 %
D66   566.106   7,7 %      755.719   12,4 %
PVV   504.985   6,9 %      711.176   11,7 %
SP   430.269   5,9 %      706.440   11,6 %
ChristenUnie   352.844   4,8 %      243.209   4,0 %
Partij voor de Dieren   316.499   4,3 %      210.113   3,4 %
50PLUS   232.928   3,2 %      204.858   3,4 %
SGP   180.083   2,5 %      170.624   2,8 %
DENK   121.832   1,7 %      0   0,0 %

So we have immediately disproved the idea (coined by me...) that SGP actually lost votes. Its seat loss in the Senate is a consequence of higher turnout, around 55% this time and 48% in 2015. VVD and PvdA also won votes compared to 2015 while losing seats, and CDA actually didn't lose that many voters. It makes the combined score of Forum and PVV perhaps even more astounding. Also shows why DENK did not get in: they received 100k votes fewer than in the general election (on 82% turnout). If all those 11k NIDA votes in the important provinces NH and ZH had gone to DENK, they would probably still have their seat.

Something else, regarding SP -> Forum vote transfers: the Ipsos voter transfer graphic is GE17 -> PS19. In GE17 the SP received 14 seats and a lot fewer votes (relatively) than in PS15. It is entirely possible that Forum did receive a lot of votes in the South from people who voted SP in 2015. These voters just moved right in the 2017 parliamentary election already, which is why they don't show up in the Ipsos graph. This seems the likeliest option: the SP did lose quite a lot of voters to Forum.

[DavidB.]

The more I look at it, the more Forum's astounding performance in the West catches my eye. Consider this: Castricum in Noord-Holland is a middle to upper-middle class "exurb" of Amsterdam, a place with a lot of highly educated commuters where VVD, D66 and GL do well. It is always one of the PVV's worst places. Forum, while coming third behind VVD and GL, actually overperformed on their national score there: 14.6%. Which is actually more than they received in PVV strongholds such as Heerlen, where Forum received 14.1%. Obviously the combined far-right score is about twice as high in Heerlen than in Castricum, but Forum's performance stands out. And you see this pattern all across the West. These are also the places where VVD and CDA both lost about as much or even more to Forum than the PVV. Heemskerk, a markedly less middle-class neighboring town of Castricum and traditionally the bellwether in the country, is not the bellwether anymore: Forum topped the poll with 18.5%, GL came second with 13.4%, the VVD a distant third with 11.9%. Given higher turnout it probably isn't just VVD voters moving to Forum; it's also non-voters turning out for both.

Why does Baudet win so much in the West? First of all, the ordinary Western middle-class voter does feel a class gap with Baudet - but at least there's not a regional-cultural gap. It's the reverse Emile Roemer/SP effect, to whom working-class voters in the West felt no class gap but a regional-cultural gap. Middle-class voters in the West have both somewhat of a class gap and a regional-cultural gap with Wilders. But when someone of a different class from the West articulates the same ideas in a more palatable way, why not vote for him? Obviously nobody thinks of this way, but I do think this is the psychology behind it.

There's a deeper layer here, I feel. The West is not the most volatile region for partisan trends, but it is the most socially "fluid" region where suburbanization is highest. The 1998 GE map shows that CDA dominated the East and the South, PvdA the North and the cities, and VVD almost all of the sub/exurban West. A lot of people in the West just want the state to stay out of their business. Which is also what "Dutch tolerance" really emanates from: not actual tolerance, just a dislike for state intervention. This doesn't mean people are libertarian, but they are liberal, in the European sense of the word, both economically (following the 80s and 90s) and culturally.

It's not difficult to see how all of this translates into support for a party like Forum that wants to keep the government at bay, criticizes a party like the VVD (for similar reasons still popular; the VVD is essentially almost designed to do well in Holland and Brabant) which governs with an agenda perceived as too left-wing. And, at the same time, Westerners feel some kind of a more essential, immaterial void: due to individualization, secularization and suburbanization, there seems to be a perpetual sense in Dutch society that we lost something of value, a sense of community, a sense of decency almost, which so many parties have won elections with in different ways (this is also why "norms and values", something actually difficult to explain in English but a household term in Dutch, consistently ranks as issue number one to Dutch voters). I would say this is a problem of the modern world, but it is particularly relevant in Dutch society.

[TheSaint250]

Does FvD have a chance at forming a provincial government or at least being a part of one? Are there parties that have signaled openness to working with them or rejected working with them like with PVV?

[DavidB.]

Does FvD have a chance at forming a provincial government or at least being a part of one? Are there parties that have signaled openness to working with them or rejected working with them like with PVV?

Most parties don't appear to reject cooperation with Forum beforehand, though given programmatic differences it will of course not be easy. I think there's a chance Forum will end up governing with VVD, CDA and CU in Zuid-Holland. Flevoland and Limburg seem to be possible too. But it could also be that none of this ends up happening. We have to wait and see.

[DavidB.]

Some maps here.

Final turnout was 56.1%, up 8.4% from 2015 - seems as if a lot of voters turned out in the last hours. Highest turnout for PS elections since 1987.

Peil poll post-election:

Forum 26 (+6)
VVD 23 (+1)
GL 18 (+1)
CDA 14 (+4)
PvdA 13 (+1)
D66 12 (+1)
PVV 10 (-5)
SP 9 (-3)
PvdD 7
CU 7
DENK 4 (-3)
50Plus 4 (-1)
SGP 2 (-1)
Others 1 (-1; this seems nonsense)

Coalition 56 (+6)

Peil.nl was the most accurate pollster for the election last week, but has probably revised its methodology somewhat given the above numbers.

[Diouf]

Josse de Voogd maps. FvD 2019 compared to LPF in 2002 and PVV in 2010, showing which party did better in each province. Friesland, Drenthe and Overijssel are the three provinces, where FvD outperformed both. Would probably be more interesting on a level lower.

[DavidB.]

The PVV received 15.5% in 2010, LPF 17% in 2002 and FVD 14.4% this time, so it makes sense that the LPF is generally bigger across the board - actually surprising that FVD did better in Friesland, Drenthe and Overijssel. The FVD comparison map with the PVV 2010 can largely be explained by the fact that PVV support in 2019 held up well in the South, directly at the expense of FVD. The same goes for Groningen. Utrecht is the only province that has a majority of people in the "progressive belt" which is shifting left as most of the country is currently shifting right. Zeeland, then, can probably be explained by the fact that the PVV in 2010 was simply stronger than FVD in 2019.

The more interesting map, in my opinion, was this one: the combined score of FVD and PVV. Shows that Dutch nationalist support is much more evenly spread across the country now - at a higher baseline level than ever: more than 20%. More than a third of ethnically Dutch male voters in South Holland probably voted FVD/PVV. Axis Groningen-Zwolle-Wageningen worst "belt" for Dutch nationalism.

https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/03/23/538918/xxl.jpg

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today:

Forum 27 (+1)
VVD 23
GroenLinks 18
CDA 14
PvdA 13
D66 11 (-1)
PVV 9 (-1)
SP 9
PvdD 8 (+1)
ChristenUnie 7
DENK 4
50Plus 4
SGP 2
Other 1

Electoral ceiling in % by party (current support + voters who indicate they consider voting for them in the next GE):

Forum 31% (including 80% of PVV voters, 49% 50Plus, 31% both VVD and CDA)
VVD 29%
GroenLinks 27%
CDA 25%
PvdA 25%
D66 22%
PvdD 21%
SP 20%
PVV 18%
50Plus 17%

Would the following politician be a suitable candidate for PM? Yes answers:

VVD candidates: Dijkhoff 57%, Rutte 54%, Schippers 52%
CDA candidates: Hoekstra 54%, De Jonge 53%, Buma 46%
D66 candidates: Ollongren 42%, Kaag 40%, Jetten 30%
PvdA: Asscher 53%
GL: Klaver 41%
FVD: Baudet 38%
PVV: Wilders 26%

Thank you, liars and framers in the media, very cool!

[DavidB.]

Coalition negotiations with Forum have failed in North Holland. Initially it seemed as if the statement by the informateur suggested that no parties wanted to cooperate with Forum, and Forum obviously devoted a lot of attention to decrying this injustice. Most of the blame was attributed to the VVD, who would be entering a "climate coalition" with GL (the word itself probably already makes the VVD HQ shiver). Afterwards, however, VVD NH leader Cees Loggen disputed this idea, claiming he absolutely did intend to talk with Forum and it may be Forum who are avoiding responsibility. I think the most likely option is that the VVD were perhaps the only big party willing to talk with Forum and therefore the informateur concluded that a coalition with Forum would be impossible. In any case, there is a left-wing majority without VVD-CDA-FVD-PVV in North Holland anyway, so even if the VVD had been willing to cooperate with FVD, a coalition would probably have been impossible. As GL came second in NH after Forum and the VVD third, the next informateur will be former GL MP Laura Bromet, which makes it all the more difficult for the VVD.

Forum do suggest they were more than willing to make certain compromises in NH, and VVD NH leader Loggen had been publicly questioning FVD NH leader Johan Dessing about Baudet's opinions regarding race and the like as the media frenzy continues. The new low point is journalist Marcia Luyten erroneously claiming (based on a Wikipedia page modified after Baudet's speech without sourcing) that Joseph Mengele was called "boreal wonderchild", which would make Baudet's controversial "boreal" comment seem inappropriate; when called out on it, she said "it was fake news but it doesn't matter as it could have been true". At this point few ordinary people think the outrage has not gone too far. I bet this was exactly Baudet's intention.

Negotiations with Forum appear more successful in South Holland and Overijssel, so far: in ZH, former VVD leader Hans Wiegel is building a coalition consisting of at least Forum and VVD; in Overijssel it seems as if negotiations on a CDA-FVD-VVD-PVV coalition may start soon - which would mean Forum's success actually helps pull the PVV aboard a provincial coalition for only the second time in the PVV's existence. Interesting how this option is suddenly on the table. If this works out well in Overijssel, an important argument for such a coalition on the national level may be debunked.

Meanwhile, the Senate intends to debate on and vote on the climate agreement right before the new Senate assumes office. FVD Senate leader Henk Otten has officially appealed this decision, claiming the election was primarily about climate issues and there is no legitimate reason why the new Senate cannot debate and vote on it. The agreement will pass anyway. But it will be without the aid of Forum, PVV and also 50Plus, who were shocked by the amount of 50Plus/Forum swing voters to such an extent that they now intend not to support the agreement anymore.

[DavidB.]

It seems likely that yet another party will be founded soon. The Vrij Links (Free Left) movement, decrying the left's descent into identitarianism away from universal, liberal values, seems to start getting serious about participating in the next general election: spokeswoman Keklik Yücel, a former PvdA MP, said that "[we are] the last chance of the down-to-earth, realistic left. If our voice is not heard loudly in the next parliamentary election, the left has lost its relevancy." Free Left have had quite a bit of media attention over the last year or so. Other people affiliated with the movement are filmmaker and former PvdA member Eddy Terstall and former SP candidate Roel Sint.

The Free Left focuses on secularism and universal values and is very outspoken about defending people from a Muslim background (especially women) who seek to leave that life behind them and choose their own path in Dutch society. The difference with the Socialist Party would be that the Free Left is not explicitly socialist (though some of them do talk about class struggle) but more of a humanistic, liberal type of left. The English-language manifesto of the Free Left can be found here.

Group thinking is dividing this country. Nationalist right-wing opinion is feeding on romantic nationalism and all the regressive left has to show for itself are equally divisive tales of identity politics. The group is elbowing out the concepts of nationhood as well as individuality. The progressive left, traditionally based on universal values and the elevation of the masses, has been left to languish on the side lines.

We, a number of progressive Dutch people from different backgrounds, refuse to give up on the left-wing ideas that have stimulated freedom and modern thought in the Netherlands and the entire Western world.

(...)

An open society thrives on freedom of expression. For centuries the Netherlands has been a country in which worldviews could be challenged and this has led to a unique and free society. What is interpreted as an insult by some, may be a fresh point of view or analysis for others.

Vrij Links distances itself from the suggestion that non-western Dutch people should be protected from a free debate because they are not ready for such expressions of modernity. We think this way of thinking – called the racism of lower expectations by the British – negates the individuality of Dutch people with a non-western background.

An open society is characterised by a peaceful battle of ideas, in which the best idea ultimately wins. To exclude, for instance, religious practices or ideas from the debate only helps the theocratic patriarchy and limits individual emancipation.

Political correctness leads to insipid and meaningless art; an academic climate without discussion leads to intellectually defenceless laureates and cultural impoverishment.

No idea, religious or profane, is above criticism in a free world. Ideas have no rights. Citizens have rights. In an open society the truth and moral value of ideas are continually evaluated by free citizens.

Whether there is still an electoral market for this remains to be seen. There was limited enthusiasm for Jacques Monasch's similar initiative Nieuwe Wegen in the 2017 election, but he was almost invisible and not a very charismatic politician in the first place. I wonder whether this ship hasn't already sailed, with voters agreeing with the Free Left's message already opting for Forum.

[bigic]

I wonder whether this ship hasn't already sailed, with voters agreeing with the Free Left's message already opting for Forum.

But why would they choose Forum? Seems like the Free Left's stance on identity politics is closer to that of some of the more "moderate" parties?

[DavidB.]

I wonder whether this ship hasn't already sailed, with voters agreeing with the Free Left's message already opting for Forum.

But why would they choose Forum? Seems like the Free Left's stance on identity politics is closer to that of some of the more "moderate" parties?

Many people undoubtedly agree with the Free Left. But I suspect most of those who actually find these issues sufficiently important to vote based on them already vote for the right.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder whether this ship hasn't already sailed, with voters agreeing with the Free Left's message already opting for Forum.

But why would they choose Forum? Seems like the Free Left's stance on identity politics is closer to that of some of the more "moderate" parties?

Many people undoubtedly agree with the Free Left. But I suspect most of those who actually find these issues sufficiently important to vote based on them already vote for the right.

Still, I wonder why would they choose Forum (an unambigously right wing party in every policy aspect).

Wouldn't those voters (presumably left wing but against identity politics) vote PVV if they are voting for the right in the first place?

Also, considering how Dutch elections work, I can certainly see them getting 1 seat as it's incredibly easy to get one?

[DavidB.]

I don't exclude the possibility of the Free Left entering parliament at all (and would welcome it, unless they somehow manage to actually attract Forum voters). But their left-liberal Weltanschauung is very different from that of Forum and PVV and would mostly be popular among left-wingers or liberals who are dismayed by their own side's "regressive" elements while strongly opposing "tribalism" and nationalism on the right too.

I don't think this nuanced message will fare all too well with Forum or PVV voters. People like my parents, who originally come from the left and would have liked a Free Left 15 years ago, will now stick with Forum. Other such voters have moved from the PvdA to CDA or VVD as economic issues have been receiving increasingly less attention. It is more likely that the Free Left would attract PvdA voters and some people who used to be part of the humanist wing of D66, which has sort of died off since MP Boris van der Ham left; and not much room for that sort of nuance and for criticism of oppressive aspects of Islam when you gain popularity by being the anti-PVV/FVD either.

[DavidB.]

EenVandaag: 49% of VVD 2017 voters think the party moved too far left on climate issues, 60% prefer cooperation with Forum over cooperation with GL in the Senate, and 39% think the VVD should focus less on greener policies.

Peil today: Forum 28 (+1), VVD 22 (-1), GL 18, CDA 15 (+1), PvdA 13, D66 11, SP 9, PVV 8 (-1), PvdD 8, CU 7, DENK 4, 50Plus 4, SGP 2, others 1 (this is nonsense).

[DavidB.]

Climate policy seems to be driving a wedge between FVD and VVD almost everywhere. This has caused multiple attempts at coalition formation with FVD to fail.

In Noord-Brabant, negotiations between FVD, VVD and CDA broke down over the issue, though the VVD want FVD to return to the table. In Gelderland, the informateur advised the formation of a VVD-GL-CDA-PvdA-CU-SGP coalition. Like Noord-Holland, Utrecht will make a center-left turn: GL-D66-CDA-PvdA-CU are coming to an agreement in the central province. And in Friesland, CDA-FVD-VVD-FNP broke down over the climate issue.

But FVD are still negotiating in Drenthe (PvdA-FVD-VVD-CDA), Overijssel (CDA-FVD-VVD-CU-PvdA), Zeeland (CDA-FVD-SGP-VVD-PvdA), Flevoland (unclear which coalition) and Zuid-Holland (FVD-VVD-unclear).

[DavidB.]

Peil today: Forum 28 (+1), VVD 22 (-1), GL 18, CDA 15 (+1), PvdA 13, D66 11, SP 9, PVV 8 (-1), PvdD 8, CU 7, DENK 4, 50Plus 4, SGP 2, others 1 (this is nonsense).

No changes this week.

45% want the government to complete its term, compared to 35% in January. Increases are biggest among the left-progressive parties, likely because of FVD scare: the idea is that a general election would mainly benefit Forum. 33% of GL 2017 voters now hope the incumbent government will remain in place until 2021 (+11%), compared to 37% of PvdA voters (+17%) and 85% of D66 voters (+22%).

Increases with the voters of the more right-wing coalition parties are more modest: 73% (+2%) of VVD 2017 voters and 59% (+8%) of CDA voters want the government to complete its term. The fact that the government is now most popular with D66 voters also speaks volumes about its course in terms of policy...

The order of most trusted parliamentary group leader to least trusted parliamentary group leader is now as follows: Segers (CU), Dijkhoff (VVD), Asscher (PvdA), Thieme (PvdD), Buma (CDA), Marijnissen (SP), Baudet (Forum), Klaver (GL), Van der Staaij (SGP), Krol (50Plus), Wilders (PVV), Jetten (D66), Kuzu (DENK). Steep decline for Marijnissen, who led this list in January. Baudet at an all-time high and now more trusted than Klaver. Rob Jetten continues to do absolutely horribly here and even receives only a 6.9 on a 10-point scale among D66 voters.