Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[TheSaint250]

Meanwhile, PVV -> FvD voter movement continues. Wilders' party is now at a five-year low.

My reaction to this:

I wouldn't be too happy. After the elections PVV and FvD had just 21 seats. Now they have 28 seats, and Baudet's party probably has a higher ceiling than the PVV (but the refugee crisis already showed that the PVV has a very high ceiling).

If, in a hypothetical scenario this were possible, would PVV and FvD combine to form a government?

Obviously, they would need other parties, but would they be open to the idea?

[TheSaint250]

Being a PVV politician really hurts your career prospects. In 2016 an anonymous PVV MP apparently told a journalist that he had to remain in politics, even though he wanted to quit, because he was afraid he wouldn't find a job because of PVV background. I'm not sure whether it's that extreme, but being a PVV municipal council member doesn't help your career.

I'm not sure whether FvD has the same stigma. Baudet or Hiddema is on Business Class literally every time I happen to watch it (don't watch it frequently though) so perhaps being a FvD member isn't as much as a problem for businesses. Then again, I'm not sure whether Business Class is that relevant lol. I'm looking forward to senator Harry Mens though .

A lot of potential PVV candidates also complained about the tight controls imposed by Wilders. Wilders wants them to almost exclusively talk about "de-Islamization", but a lot of potential PVV candidates (especially the ones living in municipalities with a negligible amount of Muslims) felt like this would force them to ignore local issues.

That seems to be one reason (along others) that PVV can’t branch out much. It seems to be the most fervent anti-Islam of the mainstream right-wing populist parties, and it seems that exclusively focusing on a religion doesn’t help them further their appeal

[TheSaint250]

It would be weird if the next election had VVD, SP, and FvD in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

[TheSaint250]

It's pretty amazing to see the polls regularly show:

1. VVD (Liberals)
2. SP (Socialists)/GL (Greens)
3. FvD (Right-Wing Populists)

[TheSaint250]

Two hypothetical coalition questions:

1. If GL were to win the most seats for a left-wing party, what would be some likely coalitions?

2. In the (very) hypothetical scenario that parties were willing to work with PVV to form a coalition, which parties would be most likely to do so? I assume FvD is one of them.

EDIT: One more question:

The VVD leadership election in which Rutte won was seen as the right-liberals vs. more right-wing conservatives (iirc). After Rutte leaves, what are the chances of the conservative faction taking control of the party?

[TheSaint250]

Thank you all

[TheSaint250]

Sorry, one more follow-up to the coalition question:

If there were enough seats, would a GL-D66-SP-PvdA-50+ coalition with PvdD and DENK support be possible? Would parties work with DENK, and would D66 leave the government for this type of deal?

[TheSaint250]

I&O just released a poll in which FVD keep gaining, but it's not post-Utrecht, so take it with an additional grain of salt...

Compared to last poll: VVD 11 (-1), FVD 10 (+1), GL 9, CDA 8, PVV 7, PvdA 6 (+1), SP 6 (-1), D66 5, CU 4 (+1), PvdD 3 (+1), 50Plus 2 (-1), Independent Senate Group 2, SGP 1 (-1), DENK 1

Why is OSG running in the House of Representatives? I would assume from the name that they are a Senate-only party

[TheSaint250]

Why is OSG running in the House of Representatives? I would assume from the name that they are a Senate-only party

This is a Senate poll.

Oops, sorry

Also, are there any polls available for the provincial elections?

[TheSaint250]

Does FvD have a chance at forming a provincial government or at least being a part of one? Are there parties that have signaled openness to working with them or rejected working with them like with PVV?

[TheSaint250]

Does FvD have a chance at forming a provincial government or at least being a part of one? Are there parties that have signaled openness to working with them or rejected working with them like with PVV?