Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Diouf]

Where would the SP voters likely go? I believe they are normally the most working class party of the less, so is it the PVV entrance, that also hurts them? And who is hurt most by the emergence of DENK and the other parties for non-western immigrants. I'm guessing PvdA primarily?

[Diouf]

If we are in the business of comparing the referendum map with Britain, I would state that it is such a kind of map that would be needed in a referendum for a fairer electoral system in Britain The anti-establishment voters voting against the current system and the two old parties helped by young, well-educated urban voters, who will tend to be ideologically in favour of a fair electoral system.

[Diouf]

Great post, David!

The figures are perhaps too low to be significant, but I thought the SGP voters were having lots of children, so their young voter share would be a bit higher, but that seems not to be the case.

I think I have an ok perception of most parties and their core voters, but I'm a bit doubtful on CU. How would you draw up a stereotype of a typical CU voter. Of course fairly religious, but what in terms of education, sector of work, (dis)satisfied with politics etc.? From the graph, it seems their average voter is slightly younger than average.

[Diouf]

Poll around the dividend tax:



I'm guessing CU is not included since they are too small. Only VVD voters are in favour, while the voters of the two other government parties are clearly against. Most opposition parties are naturally wholly against, but I am perhaps a bit surprised by the FvD figures. I would have thought they would have more "right-right" voters, who would share economics views with VVD or be even further right. 

[Diouf]

Seems like VVD, or at least Klaas Dijkhoff, is quite inspired by the newest set of Danish immigration laws.

As I can tell his proposals include both harder punishments for crimes committed in some areas, mandatory pre-school for children in ghetto areas and lessons in Dutch democracy and traditions.

Unfortunately, the coalition partners are against.

https://www.ad.nl/politiek/vvd-criminaliteit-in-probleemwijken-dubbel-zo-hard-bestraffen~a8839594

[Diouf]

Aaaand he's gone. This doesn't bode well for the coalition either.

Who are most likely successors? I guess some of the ministers? Ollongren, Kaag, van Veldhoven? They also have some fairly notable MEPs (in ‘t Veld and Schaake), where I believe the former just won a tough battle for being first on the EU list. Was Pechtold on the right wing economically or focused more on that aspect than others?

[Diouf]

I don't remember if this has been answered recently, but are there any debate on removing the senate, or at least the powers it has? A fully proportional electoral system is a holy virtue that should be protected at every cost, but there is little reason to complicate things with an additional chamber with a "mid-term election".

[Diouf]

Could Wilders go more permanently to the US to pursue his think tank career there? Or will he continue fighting for hegemony on the right wing in Netherlands? As you mention, the party has little organiszation, so I guess it would largely falter without him.

[Diouf]

Josse de Voogd maps. FvD 2019 compared to LPF in 2002 and PVV in 2010, showing which party did better in each province. Friesland, Drenthe and Overijssel are the three provinces, where FvD outperformed both. Would probably be more interesting on a level lower.

[Diouf]

Finally: a proper map with the biggest 3 parties by municipality and the biggest 3 parties by polling station, countrywide. Only a couple of municipalities missing. Enjoy!

Love these kind of maps, especially with plenty of these tiny polling places. In my polling place in Denmark, there are 21.500 eligible voters, so not a lot of street to street information to draw from that. My old place in Maastricht is still just between the GL/D66/VVD inner city polling places, and the PVV/FvD heavy suburbs.

[Diouf]

Meanwhile, Thierry Baudet stands down as FVD party leader as a result of the antisemitism and nazism crisis within the party. Many people within the party, including MP’s, asked Baudet to force the leader of the party’s youth wing and number 7 on its electoral list Freek Jansen to stand down. Apparently Baudet was not prepared to do so.

How definite does it seem?
From what I can read in Telegraaf, he is resigning as the name on the top of the list (who represents the party in election TV and so on, I believe), but that he will remain as party leader and probably still run at the election, so he could be elected via preference votes.

[Diouf]

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

[Diouf]

I&O also show VVD slipping further, down to 33 seats. D66 gaining 3 seats #kaagmentum.

[Diouf]

Would be an interesting addition to the Dutch left if Splinter could get in. As I understand, their MP has also played a quite significant role in parliament in promoting the "health care bonus", a pay rise for health care workers, as well as keeping the government to account on the child care scandal.

[Diouf]

Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

[Diouf]

VVD up one in the updated exit poll. D66 stays the same.

And FvD one op, Volt down one.

FvD now equal to SP and GroenLinks, and one seat behind PvdA.

[Diouf]

VVD is a bit down in the first two results from northern islands, but other than that, the party movements mostly mirror the exit poll. Apparently voting areas with more than 100% turnout due to tourists.

[Diouf]

In the first two small results, the small party projection also seems credible. Volt on 3.7%, JA21 at 2.3%, BIJ1 at 1.1% and BBB at 1.1%. The closest potential new parties in parliament are Code Oranje at 0.4% and Pirates at 0.3%. Splinter only at 0.2%

[Diouf]

Have all the other vote counters fallen asleep?

[Diouf]

Ouder-Amstel, in Amsterdam where the Ajax youth facilities are located, shows the expected picture. VVD loses 3.0% while D66 improves with 4.6%. Volt gets 3.9%

[Diouf]

As far as I can see, there is no longer a Paars Plus majority, only 75 seats. So that is no longer an option in it self. Would need an additional party, perhaps it could become a Paars Pikachu coalition with Volt

[Diouf]

Annemarie Jorritsma (VVD) and Kajsa Ollongren (D66) are named informateurs after the meeting of party leaders, posted by Zinneke

[Diouf]

Today were the first meetings with the informateurs. Rutte spoke in favour of VVD-D66-CDA-JA21, but also said the continuation of the current coalition could be a good option. Kaag said an option with JA21 was difficult to imagine, and that she wanted a progressive coalition. Hoekstra said that it wasn't obvious that CDA would join a government with a strong liberal engine. Ploumen said that PvdA would only join the government along with another left wing party. Klaver echoed Kaag's "as progressive as possible". Wilders said he expects to lead the opposition again, but that he believes that a VVD-CDA-PVV-FvD-JA21 majority should be looked at. Baudet sees no role for his party in the government negotiations. Marijnissen would not completely rule out being in a coalition with VVD, but acknowledged that there are big differences between the two parties. But she said that they got her number, and that she could be a part of a government which purses a social way out of the crisis.
Tomorrow the small parties will meet the informateurs.

[Diouf]

In the meeting with the informateurs today, Eerdmans said that JA21 is ready to form a centre-right majority with VVD, D66 and CDA. He focuses on getting through the party's policies on migration, climate and EU with migration as the main focus. Van der Staaij from SGP said the voters' movement to the right should be reflected in the new government, but added that he "does not expect the ball to roll towards SGP" in these negotiations. Azarkan from DENK wants a government without VVD, PVV, FvD and JA21. He does not believe Rutte should be able to continue as PM after the child benefit scandal; instead he would like to see Kaag lead a D66-CDA-PvdA-SP-GL-CU majority. He sees no role for Denk in the formation. Segers from CU said that it's not obvious for CU to take part in the negotiations for a new government now. There are much bigger parties than CU with only five seats, and the responsibility lies with those bigger parties now. He added his concern about the deep divisions reflected in the election outcome, and says a new government should prevent the division from becoming bitter contradictions in society. Ouwehand says that PvdD is ready to govern in a green, progressive cabinet, which respects the rule of law. This could be in a cabinet with VVD if they are willing to move on the climate issue. Dassen said that Volt wants a stable government with a majority in the senate and policies which are progressive, sustainable and pro-European. He added that Volt is a new party, but it does not avoid its responsibilities.

I have not yet seen comments from the three mini-parties with one seat, 50Plus, BBB and BIJ1 remain.

[Diouf]

After the Ollongren-revelation, parliament has demanded that the papers of the talks with party leaders are published. That happened this morning. Rutte has previously stated that he did not mention Omzigt in the talks with the informateurs, but in the notes he is indeed mentioned. He has apparently said that it would be easier to deal with CDA if Hoekstra ended up with more personal votes than Omzigt. And crucially also said that Omzigt should be moved to another positon, i.e. so that he can not continue as a regular MP holding the government to account. Apprently it was discussed whether he should be minister or speaker of parliament.