Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era (user search)
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era (search mode)
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era  (Read 133924 times)
Zinneke
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« on: November 14, 2017, 03:53:00 PM »
« edited: November 14, 2017, 03:56:13 PM by coloniac »

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-11-06.pdf

David is right, there aren't a lot of PVV-VVD swing voters. 12% of VVD voters would have considered voting PVV while 8% of PVV voters consider voting VVD. This poll actually is from 2016 but I don't think the number is a lot different now. But in both 2012 and 2017 there must have been some PVV supporters who initially were going to vote PVV but decided to vote VVD at the last possible moment to stop the left (2012) or because of Rutte's strong response to the diplomatic row with Turkey in 2017. They're probably back to hating Rutte/the VVD now just like they immediately jumped ship after the VVD-PvdA coalition manifesto was released in 2012.

But VVD voters and PVV voters have very different demographics (just look at peil.nl's demographic breakdowns of the 2017 election). Josse de Voogd once released a GL vs SP map ("anywheres" vs "somewheres") and I think a VVD-PVV would look quite similar (once you adjust it to the VVD's 13-seat margin over the PVV). There probably would be some differences (big cities perhaps?).

He heard your request

https://twitter.com/Jossedevoogd/status/930156582641520640



Rotterdam seems to be the big city you are talking of that votes strangely. Rotterdam never struck me as the kind of town to like Baudet's very "Amsterdam" characteristics Cheesy .
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2017, 09:39:14 AM »

Martin Bosma (PVV) pulled a #LockHerUp and demanded that Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) be imprisoned for 30 years for treason. As Deputy Mayor and alderwoman in Amsterdam, Ollongren once stated that the "Republic of Amsterdam" should secede in case the PVV tops the poll nationwide.

No mention of Baudet asking why dual nationals should hold public office during the first debate? Let's not take away credit where credit is due, he was the first one to hint that Ollongren was part of a fifth column.  
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Zinneke
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2017, 10:03:37 AM »
« Edited: November 18, 2017, 11:21:48 AM by coloniac »

Martin Bosma (PVV) pulled a #LockHerUp and demanded that Interior Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66) be imprisoned for 30 years for treason. As Deputy Mayor and alderwoman in Amsterdam, Ollongren once stated that the "Republic of Amsterdam" should secede in case the PVV tops the poll nationwide.

No mention of Baudet asking why dual nationals should hold public office during the first debate? Let's not take away credit where credit is due, he was the first one to hint that Ollongren was part of a fifth column.  
It was actually Wilders who started about Ollongren's dual citizenship; Baudet came to his aid in an interruption with additional legalistic arguments. However, neither Wilders nor Baudet suggested Ollongren was part of a fifth column. Wilders: "Nobody says I do not trust Ms. Ollongren, for example. But if we talk about holding dual citizenship, I am consistent" (click). Of course his claim to consistency is untrue, as he did not introduce a motion of no confidence against Marlies Veldhuijsen van Zanten in Rutte-I, but I do not think he or Baudet suggested that Ollongren is part of a fifth column.

For the case of Wilders, I am not refferring to him (because we all know who he thinks the fifth column is, and its not Ollegren), but your post over the PVV above  

I'm also refferring to Baudet's question, where he asked if it was acceptable if dual nationals should hold office, hinting at the fact that Ollegren may not have the interests of the Dutch people at heart.

https://soundcloud.com/methetoogopmorgen/de-stemming-van-vullings-en-van-weezel-23

(minute 19 for the full sh**tshow in the debate, 20.20min for his question)

I'm surprised given your previous sensitivities on such an issue this wasn't brought up earlier.  
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Zinneke
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2017, 10:27:31 AM »

For the case of Wilders, I am not refferring to him (because we all know who he thinks the fifth column is, and its not Ollegren), but your post of the PVV above  

I'm also refferring to Baudet's question, where he asked if it was acceptable if dual nationals should hold office, hinting at the fact that Ollegren may not have the interests of the Dutch people at heart.

https://soundcloud.com/methetoogopmorgen/de-stemming-van-vullings-en-van-weezel-23

(minute 19 for the full sh**tshow in the debate, 20.20min for his question)

I'm surprised given your previous sensitivities on such an issue this wasn't brought up earlier.  

I do not completely understand your post, but I also do not think that by asking that question Baudet suggested that Ollongren does not have the Dutch interest at heart. I do not think he meant that at all. His argument was based on constitutional law. I find this to be a trivial issue, but do not see why it would be illegitimate to discuss it.

This happened after Wilders brought up the subject, by the way.

You are right, it is a pure coincidence that he decided to defend this aspect of Constitutional law.

(Hilariteit)

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Zinneke
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2017, 10:49:40 AM »

Who said it was coincidence? It appears that you seek to revive your little personal vendetta, for which I have no time, but your argument falls flat.

I only brought Baudet's objection to dual nationals and Ollongren up for the sake of balance. Carry on thinking you are the center of the world though.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2017, 10:23:57 AM »

Duindorp's statistics are telling. When will that place become a bohemian district.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2017, 05:55:17 PM »

I can see VVD and CDA being open to cooperating with FvD if it's absolutely necessary (and like David said, VVD members are very flexible people unless they target our wallets Tongue), but I can't see FvD working with the "party cartel" unless it's at their terms.

FvD third largest party and bigger than the PVV (though all within MoE) in today's Peil.nl poll.



Absolutely disgusting.
I find it hilarious. Seven parties virtually tied for second place : that's classic Dutch polling between elections for you!

Yeah, the Dutch public is rather volatile. At some point before the 2006 elections the PvdA was at 60 seats in the polls, they won 33. In 2010 nobody really expected Rutte to win the elections (it's a wonder he survived 2007/2008, the rest is history), in 2012 the SP collapsed from 35 seats to 15 seats in the polls (and the PvdA went from 15 to 35) and according to the polls in the months before the 2017 election VVD-CDA-D66-GL-PvdA was like the only serious option. And don't forget how many parties led atleast 1 poll in the 2012-2015 period. VVD, PvdA, D66, PVV and SP all led multiple polls at one point during that period (and the CDA won the European elections even though they never led a single poll during that period).

This graph is telling:


Next week the politician of the year will be chosen. Candidates are Jesse Klaver (GL leader), Jeroen Dijsselbloem (former PvdA finance minister), Klaas Dijkhoff (VVD parliamentary leader), Thierry Baudet (FvD leader) and Khadija Arib (Speaker of the House of Representatives). I'm surprised they didn't include Rutte, he won the elections by quite a big margin after all. Meanwhile I don't get why they included Dijsselbloem and Arib who haven't done anyhing noteworthy this year (especially Dijsselbloem surprised me). Baudet probably will win it though.

It would be superb trolling if he won it and didn't turn up. AFWEZIG!

SP and PVV have proven in the last two elections that your polling numbers mean nothing electorally until the final straight, where people make their coalition preferences known. They were still probably held in a positive regard by those who ended up voting PvdA/VVD-CDA in the respective elections. preferred party =/= who will you vote for if election were held tomorrow.

That said, I don't think people go to provincial elections thinking who they want in government, even though it obviously has an effect with the First Chamber and all. And turnout might be low. So its certainly going to be an interesting election as things stand.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2018, 03:33:03 AM »

Speaking of D66 it looks like they are going to put elected mayors to the parliament but could potentially get shafted by the CDA in the First Chamber (Senate). Potential Thom de Graaf 2.0.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2018, 07:12:17 AM »

My god that debate over Amsterdam was a sh**tshow. Worse thing is it was the national leaders and not the usual amateurs that lead party lists. A debate completely hijacked by the attention seekers, the non-issues and the people who indulge in their edginess, or are looking to present themselves as the ying to Baudet's yang (see the part about D66 above). When the SP is the least annoying presence on the platform its time to switch off. 

The Dutch far right seem to be entering Catch-22 levels of repeating the same mistake of entrepreneurial politics over grassroots movements. In order to get their electoral platform they need an out-there figure. Said figure is inevitably a self-obsessed maverick with a burgeoning calimero complex against "The Media/The Establishment" for the voters to identify with. The success that said figure enjoys leads him/her to move beyond the actual project of building a party and a political movement and instead enjoy the excesses and attention of the very elite they criticise. The serious members jump ship from the scam.

I was belittled on here for saying that many of these political entrepreneurs were egomaniacs to a higher degree than the rest of the political class, and that this would eventually work against them, and lo and behold Baudet has proved me right once again, as did Fortuyn, Verdonk, Wilders, Roos etc.  Given the FvD is not only such a movement, but one directly descended from a student  fraternity, you do have to be a bit thick to think internal democracy would be a pillar of their platform. "Fool me once", etc
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Zinneke
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2018, 06:51:29 AM »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2018, 07:37:20 AM »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...

Well, she never said that. She just said that something happened, which can mean a lot of things. And Berckmoes was a MP, so she couldn't have been the assistant.

I badly want Hans van Baalen as Foreign Minister btw.

Can't MPs be junior ministers in some capacity? Or do they always fill purely legislative functions?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2018, 05:45:58 PM »

Hilarious: approximately 40 local PvdA branches will stand in the election under a different name not linked to the national PvdA, so that it will appear as if they are a local party. They do so because of the negative image of the PvdA. In the past, local branches were explicitly ordered to avoid doing so even when engaging in so-called progressive alliances, where the PvdA would run one list together with other left-wing parties. But now the party has changed its position. "To us, the point is that you have a progressive agenda and are truly rooted in society. The choice of the name of the list, that's up to the local people with their expertise." For example, the PvdA in Cranendonck is now named "Pro6", and the PvdA Nederweert is "Nederweert Different".

sp.a doing the same here, although I think in both cases the other reason than the poor brand is that it opens their list to grassroots, usually single issue movements that have evolved outside the party structures (PTB were particularly effective at this in their strongholds). I imagine one of the key criticisms aimed at the social democratic parties in our countries is their internal machinations take precedence over real issues. add to that the fact that some people want to influence local politics without necessarily joining a party.

tldr This is probably going to be a long term trend in local party politics, these guys are just doing it earlier because of the "brand" problem.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2018, 05:21:18 AM »



This was an interesting take. I'm still unconvinced though. I wonder what the Dutch posters think
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Zinneke
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2018, 02:05:33 PM »

The SP Rotterdam have received a lot of criticism for their decision to participate in the alliance with PvdA, GL and NIDA, particularly since NIDA have defended Turkey's operation in Afrin, something the national SP vehemently oppose. SP MP Sadet Karabulut, who is Kurdish, already tweeted that "this was a local decision...", implying that she isn't too happy with it. Meanwhile, NIDA (and surprisingly not DENK) have been endorsed by the Dutch branch of the AK Party: apparently, some AK person, a former CDA city council member, is on the NIDA list.

Meanwhile, voters are receiving their voting card(s): I have received both.

Do you not have a seperate one for provincial and local anymore?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2018, 12:47:23 PM »

The snitches were doxxed on GeenStijl: one of them, Mathijs Kramer, is a D66 candidate in Dordrecht. How low can you go?

I'd say promoting bizarre pseudo-scientific racial theories, homophobia and saying the NL should not accept immigrants with down syndrome "because we already have enough downies who cost a ton" is already a lower bar.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2018, 01:38:17 PM »

That last statement about people with Down syndrome was not by Ramautarsing but by some other FvD member in that group:
Quote
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No mention of Ramautarsing saying anything about this -- and it would definitely have been included had he voiced his support for this position.

While Ramautarsing's statement about gay rights making society less intelligent was ridiculous, I don't see why it's homophobic as he did not call for rolling back gay rights.

Apparently this group was meant as a closed group in which all sorts of sometimes crazy viewpoints were discussed (including far-left ones and pro-jihadi ones), without taboos. Ramautarsing obviously made a big mistake by continuing to participate in these discussions, because from day one it should have been obvious that someday this information would be leaked. But people who are triggered because they are confronted with un-PC and sometimes ridiculous viewpoints should just get out of the kitchen if they can't stand the heat.

Some impressive head-in-sand and whataboutery in here.

Panic starting to set into the JFvD ranks I see.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2018, 12:27:30 PM »

Erm, perhaps it's a harsh lesson but people absolutely must have the freedom to report about the opinions of others, particularly politicians who seek authority and power over us. It is in fact a foundational freedom (free expression / press).

Quiet, the real scandal here is the D66 infiltrator leaking WhatsApp conversations! After all he's D66!!!
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Zinneke
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2018, 03:23:41 PM »

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?


If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.

Sure, but why?


I have a theory that it's because the (useless) logo-shaped sponges they give out fit in the kitchen context.

I think though that the ball is supposed to symbolise the world and the white star on red background is the next best thing to the hammer and sickle, which obviously has negative connotations. Their sister party in Belgium PVDA/PTB also have the white star on red. And I'm pretty sure some other radical left parties in Europe that don't want to be associated with the USSR have it.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2018, 05:36:35 PM »

Pretty interesting maps of local election results in the 1930s...

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/achtergrond/2018/12/gemeenteraadsverkiezingen-in-de-jaren-dertig
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Zinneke
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« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2018, 07:01:16 AM »

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds
I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

Isn't Haren quite left-wing? Normally these wealthy but progressive-leaning places have an overperforming VVD which compensates for the other right-wing parties underperforming, but the VVD only performs slightly better than nationwide in Haren. I believe it's literally the only municipality out of the 20/30 wealthiest municipalities to vote PvdA in 2012. Then again, I imagine leftists in Haren aren't very workerist Tongue.

The map indeed seems to be a combination of young people in university cities and people who lost confidence in the system (and used to vote PvdA in the past) which gives you an old PvdA victory map.

As for a Dutch Labour-Tory map: I imagine 2012 VVD vs PvdA would be 2015, as VVD-PvdA probably is a very class-based classical left-right battle. This referendum could be 2017, when Labour won wealthier places because either Brexit or supercharged turnout from less fortunate people. And young people probably voted hard against the referendum while they voted for Labour in the UK. GOP-Dem would just be right-wing parties vs left-wing parties (that would count PVV, CU and FvD as part of the right and D66 as part of the left). Some wealthier suburbs that voted VVD would be closer or even swing to the left because other right-wing parties barely win votes (Dutch Connecticut Tongue) while parts of Groningen (or Limburg) where the VVD isn't popular but CDA and PVV are would go for the right.

CDA probably still is the biggest national party, but the VVD did win some votes. It's disappointing that we didn't manage to win the local elections for the first time ever, but it's not a terrible result.

Wouldn't beat yourself up about it. In the same way this election's issues suited GL, it didn't suit Rutte's style nor the VVD's program. I imagine turnout has an impact too. GL benefited from the "national" local debates being about housing in big cities for yuppies civil servants and students, pollution, and Lelystad airport, not to mention the Groningen gas fields and the Belgian nuclear plants being somewhat strong grassroots issues on either side of the country. I don't think GL have really evolved nationally from where they were a year ago, although now that the media are painting Klaver as the winner and the main progressive opposition other voters might follow.

VVD might be worried about the CDA picking off certain parts of their vote now, but the national issues and Rutte's personal popularity is enough for me to think they will perform in provincials too.

I think everybody kind of expected what was going to happen to D66 in the inner cities.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2018, 03:47:36 AM »

I suppose animal rights as a single issue does not necessarily bear any of the green movement's connotations of being part of the historical Left tradition.

There was a good podcast in Dutch on the subject by NRC : https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2018/04/21/nrc-haagse-zaken-30-waarom-de-partij-voor-de-dieren-geen-lachertje-meer-is-a1600280

Just from the opening segments of THieme and other senior figures speaking : PvdD make a big deal out of the fact that they are dark green to GL's light green. But like you say, they also make a point of being outside the conservative-progressive, left-right scale, despite sitting in GUE and voting often with the Left.

Of course you get often interviews of caricatures of white working class Dutchmen in the media who say that they are hesitating between PVV and PvdD, or results in PVV-strong communes where PvdD overperform their national average, all of which are vastly overinterpreted. But they make an effort not to limit themselves to the certain type of voter you expect.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2018, 09:09:51 AM »

The real comparison to make is the hypothetical score they would be on now had they joined Klaver's initial proposal during the first debate.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2018, 03:38:20 AM »

It's getting increasingly challenging with the level of fragmentation we're currently experiencing, and there seems to be no quick fix or potential solution with the system that we have (which is unlikely to change). We'll have to deal with it. I guess we'll have a two-horse race election once in a while, which makes coalition formation easier, but elections like in 2010 and 2017 with that level of fragmentation will likely only become more prevalent in the future. It is what it is.

FVD are a new populist right-wing party focusing on direct democracy, opposition to mass immigration, opposition to the EU, maintaining Dutch traditions and values, and lowering taxes for small and mid-sized businesses. They mainly attract voters from PVV, CDA and VVD.

I now wonder how a Dutch election would look like if they switched to FPTP cold turkey and without any party consolidation or coalitions.

Looking at the 2017 map I imagine an overall VVD majority (with less than 22% of the vote!) with CDA in second and a handful of PVV people in the south and GL in Amsterdam. Eventually a VVD-CDA 2 party system?

No it would be similar to 2012 where this happened...

Or maybe there would be last-minute tactical voting.

which is exactly why they will not allow it.

Regarding the whole debate about a fractured country, I am no fan of Baudet but he is on to something when he talks about a party cartel...I think as much as we'd like to picture a bunch of squabbling party and sectioned off electorates, at the high level of politics a lot of the people in the "Kunduz club" of parties get along more than well, and even people like Wilders are hardly disliked/exiled amongst the political community. There's a culture of constructive opposition in the Netherlands and it doesn't have such a heavy hard foreign policy to need stable governments (although the 2000s showed foreign policy is still difficult in this kind of system). 

Amongst the population I am not on the ground there anymore so I don't know what its like, but I would say that from living there don't think its comparable to the US or even here in Belgium (a much more comparable example). Class and geographic faultlines are much stronger here than in the NL I feel. Even problematic immigrants seem far more integrated there than here. 

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Zinneke
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« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2019, 04:43:20 PM »

Wilders seems teary-eyed. An air of defeat. He knows he's kind of done.

@Diouf: seems impossible to predict...



Why is he done? Doesn't he run his party with an iron fist?

He is his party. His party is done. He himself has been in politics a long time now and has no succession to speak of.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2019, 02:11:26 AM »

I imagine Asscher will continue his love I with Rutte and the government will make deals with the PvdA.
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