Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Oryxslayer]

On your first point, it's just seems that the dutch electoral laws and structural foundationd of 0% threshold and a low total number of votes required to get a seat has finally caught up with the nation. This is after all the full proportional system duverger said would lead to many parties. One just needs to look at forum - a four year rise like that would be close to impossible under other structural arrangements. If this was Germany for example, forum politicians would probably prefer to join them internally coup PVV, rather than form their own brand. Now this isn't a problem, see Israel and it's many minor fronts. But if there is a problem, it's that the Dutch system is still opporating under a 1 party mindset, when it should be time to run as blocks, pre-election coalitions, or other ideological tents.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1349462149274492930

I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372234051411709954?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

Bad news for the smaller parties like Bij1 or Code Oranje as they will need more votes to get a seat

Which of course is interesting since every time I peaked at this thread it was a VVD snooze-fest of a lead. Turnout matching 2017 with the pandemic suggests excitement to vote for...somebody, and that probably isn't a single-issue minor party.

[Oryxslayer]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.


I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

I mean that's just the 2017 map with some swing calculations done and nothing more, isn't it? I recognize the breakdown cause I was working with Dutch GIS this weekend. So yeah, not going to be that accurate because universal swing even when weighted a bit is trash - and that's BEFORE you question the data we are based these hypothetical swings on. And D66 did well in the University areas last time, in fact a lot of the better non-suburban D66/GL areas had them getting similar results.

[Oryxslayer]

D66 up 8 to 27 in exit poll!

[Oryxslayer]

Now thats a Social Liberal surge. D66, VOLT, and BIJI all surging at the expense of SP, GL, CDA.

[Oryxslayer]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

Next question is what the map will look like with D66 being number two. All the cities and university towns will probably be green, but then you got areas in Holland which both D66 and VVD do well in. The post-PvdA Friesland mess probably won't be cleaned up.

[Oryxslayer]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

yes, but if we treat the exit poll as perfectly accurate, then VVD-D66 might have the opportunity to look for other coalitions members. Senate math and the D66 could prefer different partners.

[Oryxslayer]

Nothing really changes for the larger parties in the exits from the initial release. VVD gained a seat, PvdD lost one projected seat, FvD gained one, and Volt down one projected.

[Oryxslayer]

So question time: these hypothetical results don't exactly make things easy for Senate math. That's because parties representing 32 Senators we can say right now will probably not from parties invited to govt talks, and the the remaining 43 are in a peculiar alignment. Weirdly, the best shot at a senate coalition is VVD+D66+CDA+GL which is 36/75, but I have a hard time seeing that get negotiated. Probably no senate majority is possible without an obtuse coalition, or unless the coalition does their math in a way that treats the populist right as a 'third' block, lowing their target total.

[Oryxslayer]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD

What specifically are they upset about? Were they expecting Volt at 80 seats?

The pic is from 4chan, and they were genuinely seeing Baudet get 20 seats.

4chan is a hive of authoritarian rightists, reddit is full of young activists and champagne socialists, and the sun rises in the east.

[Oryxslayer]

[Oryxslayer]

Rozendaal is in, VVD still lead. I only note this because the municipality was in the top 15 D66 muni's in 2017, but its one of the areas where the D66 vote is tied to the VVD rather than the left.

[Oryxslayer]

The first results, mainly at rural areas do not really suggest big gains of D66 the exit polls suggest. So probably huge gains are made in the big cities. PvdA make some big gains Limburg at the expense of SP it seems

The difference in the swings between Rozendaal and the vacationer islands on one hand and the Limburg rurals on the other certainly point towards concentrated D66 gains in cities and the west.

[Oryxslayer]

VVD wins Beek, previously a PVV municipality in 2017. They appear to have eaten into the CDA, FvD ate into the PVV, teres a GL to D66 swing, and the PvdA got some of the former SP voters. Similar story in Vaals and Beesel.

Interesting tea leaves from the CDA stronghold of Tubbergen in the east, nearly a 1 to 1 transfer 6.5% of previous CDA voters to BBB, with the rest more or less stable

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.verkiezingensite.nl/ has a nice bubble map of voters per municipality (for those not familiar with the pop distribution) and just clicking around, the D66 swings are more pronounced in larger areas and areas closer to Amsterdam in Holland. So yeah, concentrated swings.

[Oryxslayer]

D66 voter coalition. I assume a lot of those new voters were either unenthusiastic former PvdA voter who didn't turn out in 2017 and the newly register youth.

[Oryxslayer]

Fairly big SP -> FvD swings in the PVV's corner of Groningen.

[Oryxslayer]

Jumping in here for my once-per-election hot take on Dutch politics that I otherwise pay next to no attention to and should not be listened to: D66 was my fave in 2017 and they still seem pretty good. However, according to a chart of "who should you support" I saw a couple days ago on Twitter. Denk looks like it might be closer to my views, but also a little bit less mainstream. So, those are probably who I'm "rooting for" today. Feel free to tell me I'm crazy as long as you tell me why.

You're crazy because DENK isn't a mainstream or even a single-issue small party, they are more or less a Muslim/Turkish-Dutch minority party. So unless you are a member of that community you would find yourself more at home it appears in D66.

[Oryxslayer]

What’s the deal with the BIJ1 splinter group from DENK? A more ‘doctrinaire’ anti-racist et al party but not one catering specifically to the Dutch Turkish/Moroccan communities as DENK seems to do?

Split off because of the lack of perceived support within DENK for progressive social change that doesn't just involve more autonomy for Turkish-Dutch, and of course sometimes those local issues are social conservative. Also problems with the parties capture by that community and the baggage that comes with it like Armenian Genocide denial and Erdogan.

[Oryxslayer]

D66 wins the cities of Utrecht, Deventer, Zwolle, as well as Diemen. Large gains in all 4. Additionally  there is Breda with a 5% D66 gain. So yeah, urban areas will be big, just gonna take a while too see these guys go green.

Also I direct your attention to the 6.5% result for VOLT in Utrecht, and the 4% in Diemen.

EDIT: 5.5% for Volt in Groningen which the D66 also carry.

[Oryxslayer]

Obligatory Urk results post:

SGP 54.4% (-1.7)
PVV 13.8% (+2.
FVD 9.5% (+7.
CU 8.1% (-3.5)
CDA 7.8% (-6.4)
VVD 1.7% (-0.1)
Jezus Leeft 1.4% (+0.7)
JA21 0.9%

I guess anti-lockdown rhetoric did find a bit of a receptive audience here.

What the hell is Urk?

A former island in the IJsselmeer until it was connected to the mainland after WWII via polder. The isolation of the island preserved traditional life and their unique dialect. It's that dot of orange on the map north of Flevoland.

[Oryxslayer]

And Amsterdam is in.

D66 Wins with 22.8%, VVD loses support, GL down 9.4%, 6% for Volt, 5.9% for BIJ1.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's some of the most interesting change-in-support maps from 201&;

D66 gains the most in cities and urban areas unsurprisingly.



You can basically see the VVD gobble up the CDA. They lost ground in the traditional suburbs and gained in the areas with good 2017 CDA numbers.



Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.